Two stars set for Arsenal exit – could both depart today

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So o wrote this mornings blog last night.

The synopsis was around a left back merry1go-round that is delaying exits for Nuno Tavares, Kieran Tierney and West Ham’s Aaron Cresswell.

Nottingham Forest, Wolves and Aston Villa are both chasing Cresswell, whilst his exit could open the day for Tierney to move to West Ham.

Then overnight, David Ornstein killed my blog with his breaking news:

A loan deal to Spain is a move that no one saw coming.

In the blog that will now never see the light of day, I wrote about KTs issue in finding a new club.

Out of the other top 6 Premier League clubs , Newcastle were the only ones in the market for a new left back. They have bought in Chelsea youngster Lewis Hall on loan with an obligation to buy.

Chelsea, Man U, Man City or Liverpool were never really interested in recruiting the Scotsman.

As you went down the league, more clubs would close their door on him.

Aston Villa have Lucas Digne, a move to Tottenham is a non-starter, and he is just not a Brighton sort of player.

That left him with the likes of West Ham, Fulham, Crystal Palace and other mid-lower league teams. Moved that KT clearly did not want to make.

Whilst Sociedad are not one of Spain’s big names, they have established themselves in the top 6 in La Liga over the last few years seasons.

They have now finished top 6 four seasons on the bounce. Last year they finished 4th which saw them qualify for the Champions League.

Reports are Sociedad will pay his full wages, as well as a long fee that could be as high as £5m.

KT will get to play regular first team football again, including in the Champions League, and remind potential buyers in 2024 just how good a left back he is.

Good luck to him.

The other one with one foot out the door is Folarin Balogun.

Whilst it is good luck to Tierney, it is more good riddance to Flo.

Balogun should have returned from his season on loan with France, got his head down in pre-season training and worked hard. That would have led him to get chances to show what he can do in the friendlies and force his way up the pecking order at Arsenal.

Instead, he returned from his loan move and made it very clear that he wanted first team football or was going to leave.

It showed a player who was not willing to work for it. That thought he deserved to be given it. And it is no wonder Arteta basically showed him the door.

He is clearly a young man that thinks he deserves an opportunity without firstly working for it. His decision to change allegiances highlights this.

For England, he had Harry Kane, Ivan Toney, Ollie Watkins and Tammy Abraham ahead. Instead of backing up a good 6 months, he moaned to the press that he was not getting a chance and then switched his allegiances.

But he did not opt for the nation of his parents, like so many players with African heritage do. He opted for America.

With Victor Osimhen, Kelechi Iheanacho, Taiwo Awonyi and Emmanuel Dennis, Nigeria are not short of a decent striker. Balogun was not guaranteed getting into their squad.

So he chose the easy option of playing for America, a team whom he would walk straight in for. And suddenly on social media he began promoting himself as “Mr America“, despite having never even previously mentioned Independence Day or Thanksgiving.

Back at Arsenal, I was always concerned about his snide posts on social media.

There was a time last season (I think, my memory is a little fuzzy), when Eddie Nketiah missed a good chance. That evening Balogun posted up a compilation of goals he had scored.

Then over the summer, whilst training on his own prior to returning to Arsenal, he released a video of him working out in an Inter Milan shirt. It was a clear “come and get me” plea.

So Balogun, who thought he was good enough to start for Arsenal, is on the verge of joining Monaco for £40m.

Last season, Monaco finished 6th in Ligue 1 and are not even in Europe for this campaign.

Why did no better team come in for Balogun? Were they concerned with his attitude? Were they unable to offer him the guarantees of first team football that he demanded after 1 senior season?

I am sure he will do well in France. Score 20 league goals again. But as we know scoring in France is much easier than the Premier League.

It will be interesting to follow his career. Where he goes next after Monaco.

Will a big European club come on for him? Or will he end up at the West Ham or Crystal Palace’s of this world? Clubs he probably looked down his nose at and scoffed when he was told of their interest.

Big talent, but big ego as well. Goodbye.

Have a great Friday!

Keenos

Arsenal focus “100% on exits”

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We are unlikely to buy a replacement for Jurrien Timber.

Mikel Arteta recently spoke about the difficulty in replacing the versatile defender.

Timber plays across the backline, and you are not recruiting someone else to do that without spending big, big money. Money that Arsenal will not look to invest on temporary replacement.

I think we are likely to look at Takehiro Tomiyasu as being first choice cover for both Ben White and Olexsandr Zinchenko out wide, with Jakub Kiwior, Ben White and Rob Holding as the cover in the middle.

Arteta also rates Arsenal teenager Reuell Walters highlighy. Thre 18-year-old is developing nicely and could be called upon if we need further cover at right back.

White Saliba Gabriel Zinchenko
Walters Holding Kiwior Tomiyasu

With a week to go in the transfer window, our focus is 100% on exits.

Nicolas Pepe has begun to receive admiring looks from Saudi Arabia.

I am actually surprised the Saudi Pro League did not come in for him earlier. He seems like the perfect profile for what they have previously bought.

My theory is that they did make contact with his people early in the transfer window but were rebuffed. Pepe still had hopes of “making it” in Europe and preferred the challenge of playing in a relevant league above earning loads of money infront of one man and his camel.

With a move to another top European league not materialising, Saudi looks to be the only option. My bet is Al-Ittihad following Jota’s exit…

Next in the shop window is Folarin Balogun.

Not long ago I blogged about how I think the Balogun transfer will be a deadline day one.

Premier League clubs such as West Ham and Crystal Palace will waiting until late in the window in the hope we drop the price. But likewise, Arsenal will be waiting for deadline day to sell in the hope clubs become desperate and “pay whatever is needed”.

The fake-American has recently been linked with Chelsea.

This would be a surprising move considering the driving force for his Arsenal departure is not being a starter. Can I see Balogun getting in ahead of Nicolas Jackson or Christopher Nkunku (when fit again)? No.

But then if Chelsea offer him an 8-year deal on £100k a week, I am sure he will suddenly give up his wish to play regular first team football.

Balogun has shown that he does not have the heart for the challenge. Opting to not fight for his place at Arsenal. Opting to play for America rather than England or Nigeria. It is the easy option every time.

Sit on bench for Chelsea for 8 years and pocket £40m. I am sure he will enjoy the easy life.

Arsenal are still trying to find a buyer for Albert Sambi Lokonga and Nuno Tavares.

Both have recently been linked to lower Premier League clubs, but solid deals have not yet come to light.

Lokonga to Brighton is an interesting one.

Not too long ago, I compared Lokonga to Moises Caicedo. The aim of the blog was to highlight the difference between being a young, up and coming player at somewhere like Brighton against playing at Arsenal.

Brighton were able to give Caicedo the game time to work through kinks in his game and develop. Arsenal were unable to do similar with Lokonga. I wondered if in 2021 Arsenal had signed Caicedo and Brighton Lokonga, their careers thus far would have been the opposite of now.

Lokonga’s development would have massively benefited from playing week in, week out for Brighton, whilst Caicedo would have stagnated sitting on the bench at Arsenal.

Tavares has received admiring glances from a couple of Midlands teams – Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa most recently. Both seem to be put off by Arsenal’s asking price (reported to be £20m).

With both men on a fairly low wage, and with 3-years still left on their contracts, Arsenal are in no rush to undersell either, and a loan could be the likely outcome.

If no club meets our asking price, we will probably be happy to agree loan deals where 100% of their wages is paid and a small loan fee.

That loan fee will be around £1.5m for Tavares and £3m for Lokonga. Or what their 1-year amortisation value is.

We would then hope that after 12 months of performing well in the Premier League, there will be more interest (and therefore higher transfer fees) in 2024.

I can certainly see a situation where Brighton loan Lokonga, with an option to buy for £25m, and Aston Villa loan Tavares with an option to buy for £20m.

As for Rob Holding and Kieran Tierney, I think there exits are up in the air.

Holding may be kept as a back-up to the back-ups following Timber’s injury. He is not on high wages, we will not command a huge transfer fee, and Mikel Arteta is probably happy to keep him around as an extra defensive reinforcement.

He has been with us for 7 years and is settled in North London with his family. My feeling is he will only consider leaving us if it is another London club that comes in for him. It is basically up to Rob Holding whether he leaves or not. 

As for Tierney, it is damning that Timber, Tomiyasu, Gabriel and Zinchenko have all played at left back for us this season whilst Tierney has not even been in the matchday squad.

Clearly Arteta does not fancy him, but we have also not had a bid come in that we deem acceptable.

With Lewis Hall joining Newcastle on a season long loan with an obligation to buy for £28 million plus £7 million in add-ons, that is one door shut. But that deal also shows why we are justified in holding out for £25m+.

The issue for Tierney is that not too many Premier League sides need a new first choice left-back. Those chasing Tavares are looking at him as their 2nd choice.

When you look at the Premier League, you get to West Ham in 7th as the first club where Tierney would start. They could become a real option if Aaron Creswell departs.

Next up would be Nottingham Forest in 10th and maybe Crystal Palace in 11th.

I think a bit like Balogun, teams might be waiting until the last minute to launch their Tierney bid.

Finally, Cedric Soares. I do not think he is going nowhere.

No-one seems to want him. And with 1-year left on his contract he might be happy to sit around and watch TV for 12 months. I suspect it will be a bit like last year where he gets a January loan move.

Enjoy your Thursday…

Keenos

Unbeaten Arsenal Unbalanced

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It feels wrong to write a negative blog despite us being one of just 3 teams to win our first two games. But I know full well Mikel Arteta will not be happy with the performances in those matches and is seeing what I am.

Arteta threw everyone a curve ball on the opening day of the season, putting out an XI that had not played together in pre-season, in a formation that he had not used in any of our summer friendlies. The changes led to a bit of a chaotic performance.

Against Crystal Palace, Arteta doubled down.

It was the same formation, same tactics, with just Takehiro Tomiyasu coming in for Jurrien Timber. And whilst we might have got the 3-points, the performance was certainly not impressive.

The issue is Arsenal look unbalanced right now, and it feels like we have moved away from our strengths of last season.

Starting at right back, I think it is clear and obvious to all that playing Thomas Partey there does not get the best out of the Ghanaian.

He is sort of playing in that inverted role, often dropping into midfield, but I think we lose too much of his dominating presence when he plays outwide.

Against Crystal Palace, his best spell came in the last 10 or 15 minutes of the game when he moved more centrally.

One of our strengths last season was Ben White at right back.

White was solid defensively, which allowed Bukayo Saka to play more aggressively in attack. Saka very rarely had the ned to track back.

But White was also a factor in attack. He would get up and down that sidline like a prime Gary Neville, supporting Saka in attack.

This gave Saka more space to work his magic, as teams had to cover the marauding White, and also always gave him an easy outball to his England colleague if things got a little tight.

Partey does not (or is unable to) get up and down the pitch as much as White did. He does not do that lung bursting run which sees him get beyond Saka and hit the by-line. The result is Saka ends up isolated.

Moving inside, Arteta seemed to be obsessed with a right footed and left footed right back. This allowed defenders to play that dangerous out to in spinning ball over the opposing full back for our wingers to run onto.

Whilst White and William Saliba have looked solid in the middle, it does feel a little less balanced then having Gabriel and Saliba.

I am concerned by the Gabriel links away from the club, with interest reportedly from Italy, Spain and Saudi Arabia.

What I would say, if his head has been turned he should be sold. And if he is not in the right headspace to start games, he should also not be on the bench. Personally, I do not think his exclusion is due to an impending transfer.

The left back also looks worse off with Oleksandr Zinchenko.

Jurrien Timber was very good in the inverted role last weekend, and Tomiyasu had a decent game againts Palace. The Japanese man was unlucky to receive one, let alone two, yellow cards.

I think Arteta needs to be careful about shoehorning players into his system.

Yes, he wants to play with an inverted full back when Zinchenko is on the field, but if the Ukrainian is out injured, he should alter the tactics to fit the players he has available.

If Zinchenko is not fit to start against Fulham, and with Timber and Tomiyasu out injured, I would go for a flat back four of White Saliba Gabriel Kiwior (assuming that Kieran Tierney is likely to depart over the next 7 days).

Arteta has shown that Tierney is his 4th choice left back. There is no point him remaining at the club, even with Timber’s injury.

The centre of midfield is a work in progress.

Declan Rice has fitted in perfectly. His performance against Palace was world class. Martin Odegaard has also picked up where he left off last season.

The left side of the trio is not quite there yet.

I think Kai Havertz will become an excellent player for The Arsenal, but he is perhaps not yet at Granit Xhaka’s level from last season.

The German is basically learning a new position and new tactics in a new team. He was never going to hit the ground running. But he is getting used to the Arsenal way and I am confident will soon be back at that Leverkusen form.

Saka has had a quiet start to the season after an unbelievable pre-season. Although the fact he has 1 goal in 2 games (and would have been 2 from 2 if Odegaard had not taken over penalty duties) shows how high the expectation of him is. Incredible that he is still only 21-years-old!

Saka misses Ben White’s runs.

As above, with Partey behind him he is having to do more work on his own. Often faced with two defenders with no full back making a run to take one away.

The rest of the attack is also not yet working fluidly. The same happend last season when Gabriel Jesus went of injured.

Jesus’s USP is his ability to float around the front 3, creating space for others to run in to. He had Gabriel Martinelli do this exceptionally on the left hand side. Jesus drifts left, Martinelli has space to run into, goal.

Last season when Jesus was out injured, Martinelli had his worst spell of the season.

As much as I love Eddie, he does not have that movement Jesus does. He prefers to stay centrally, making runs down either side of the centre back. He does not look to drift too far wide.

We begun to play Leandro Trossard last season up top, and his movement was much closer to Jesus’s. I would say it would be a big call to drop Eddie after 2 games, and it is something the Englishman might never come back from.

Nketiah is supposed to be a brilliant trainer. Hopefully he is doing some one to one training and learning how to make those runs Jesus does.

I am not too concerned about things at the moment. The teams that are often there at the end of the season tend to have a slow, but winning, start to the campaign and then build into the season.

Last season, we started in 5th gear and then run out of the steam.

If we can get to that first international break with 4 wins from 4 games, without getting out of 3rd gear, then it is energy saved for later in the season.

And to finish on a positive, Arsenal’s performances can only get better from the last 2 games. 6 points from 6 is certainly not something to be disappointed about!

UTA

Keenos