Goodbye, good luck and thank you, Granit

From the moment he joined, you just knew Granit Xhaka would become Arsenal captain. But no one could have predicted the journey he, and us, would go on over the 7-years at the club.

Xhaka joined in May 2016 from Borussia Monchengladbach for a fee of around £30million.

The 23-year-old came with a reputation of being a hard tackling, silky central midfielder. A wand of a left foot, disciplinary issues also circled him – he received 5 red cards in 4 years for his German club, including one for “striking an opponent”.

Arsenal felt like a natural step up for Xhaka. He has started his career at Basel before moving to Germany. His time was now to play for one of Europe’s elite.

Prior to Xhaka joining, I wrote a blog which stated that Xhaka was coming in to replace Wilshere in Arsenal’s first team.

By the time Xhaka arrived in 2016, Wilshere was already on the decline due to his injuries. He had played barely 17 Premier League games in the previous 2 seasons, and 66 in the last 5. and would only go on to play a further 39 for The Arsenal.

Like Wilshere, Xhaka seemed to have that mix of a fabulous left foot combined with an eagerness to get stuck in. Equal parts graceful and combative. He was also a natural leader.

A month into Xhaka’s time at Arsenal, and with rumours of Arsenal looking to loan Wilshere out, I wrote:

Granit Xhaka – who incredibly is younger than Wilshere – put in a performance against Watford at a level we have never seen Jack play for over half a decade. He is the player Wilshere could have become.

And for me, that was it. Xhaka had replaced Wilshere in the squad and it was potentially even time to sell Jack.

Xhaka’s first season would see him become a mainstay in Arsenal’s first team. He would show his class, but also be sent off twice.

Arsenal would end up finishing 5th, outside the top 4 for the first time in over 20 years.

Xhaka joined as Arsenal would embark a 7 year hiatus from Champions League football. Something which many fans would use to attack him.

Was Arsenal’s failure to make top 4 for 7 seasons Xhaka’s fault? No. But people blamed him as he was the only man to play consistently during this period.

Xhaka would continue has a first team regular throughout the 2017/18 season, which concluded with another FA Cup win for the club. But again we would miss out on top 4 football.

The Swiss midfielder had begun to show some concerning lapses of concentration.

Playing as the deepest of a midfield 3, he would too often play lazy or blind passes straight to the opposition which often led to goals.

Combined with the equally error prone Shkodran Mustafi, the “Arsenal banter era” had began. If it was not Xhaka making a mistake for a goal it was Mustafi.

But then in 2018, he showed himself as being one of the best central midfielders at the World Cup.

Throughout his Arsenal career, Xhaka always seemed to play better for country than club. A game against France in 2020 springs to mind where he absolutely dominated Paul Pogba.

At the time, I said the difference was where he plays.

For Arsenal, he was always deepest of the midfield. For Switzerland he always played with another midfielder behind him (often Denis Zakaria).

This allowed Xhaka to play further forward and use his technical ability to influence the attack, whilst not exposing his lapses of concentration. If he made a mistake for Switzerland, it would happen further up the field, with more players behind him to cover.

In 2018, I blogged that Xhaka’s mixed Arsenal form was due to “Wenger’s failure to use him properly.”

In that same blog I pointed out that “Xhaka is a good player. We get someone alongside him”.

It is crazy that it took until 2022 and 3 managers to begin playing Xhaka in what was arguably his most natural position – as an 8 with the freedom to get forward with a more defensive minded midfielder in behind him.

In 2019, following the departure of Laurent Koscielny, Unai Emery would name Xhaka as his captain. What we had predicted back in 2016 had finally happend.

A month to the day of being named captain, Xhaka was substituted off against Crystal Palace. His performance had been dreadful and was on the back of equally poor performances by him and teammates.

Arsenal had won just 2 of the last 7 league games, following a run of 5 defeats in the final 8 games of the previous season which saw uslose a top 4 finish that was tightly in our hands. We would finish 2018/19 being thumped by Chelsea in the Europa League final.

The abuse that Xhaka received against Palace was actually born a year earlier when Arsenal Fan TV would continually post videos of their “stars” aggressively abusing Xhaka.

It is ironic so many of them claim to suffer from mental health issues, but fail to think of others mental health as they continue to spew their bile online.

The abuse of Xhaka on their platform would spill over onto social media with some awful comments being directed to Xhaka about him, his wife and new-born baby. It would continue for over 15 months and AFTV would add fuel to the fire every weekend as they got rich off the back of spreading their poison.

Against Palace, the crowd was at boiling point. Unhappy at the way Arsenal had finished the previous season and begun the current one. Relations between club and fans had never been lower. And Xhaka, as captain, was the face of the club.

When his number went up in the 61st minute, with the score at 2-2 (Arsenal had led 2-nil), ironic cheers went up that quickly turned into boos.

Xhaka responded by making several sarcastic gestures and angrily saying “fuck off” twice to the fans who jeered his name. He also removed his shirt before walking straight down the tunnel.

After the incident, the majority of fans said the same thing: “Xhaka has disrespected the shirt and should never play for The Arsenal again”. It was hard to disagree.

Arsenal, and Xhaka, attempted to explain the incident. The issues Xhaka was suffering due to the volume of online abuse (being a well paid footballer does not make you immune from beinf effected by abuse).

The club would offer Xhaka counselling, and a little more than 1 month after being named Arsenal captain, he would be stripped of the armband.

Xhaka would would take a month hiatus and not be seen in an Arsenal shirt again until that limp defeat in the Europa League to Eintracht Frankfurt. That loss would see Emery sacked.

It is incredible to think this all happened nearly 4 years ago!

Firstly under Freddie Ljungberg, and then under Mikel Arteta, Xhaka would return to the Arsenal first team, but the feeling was he would depart in January.

When Arteta joined the club, Xhaka told him he wanted out. The Spaniard sat Xhaka down for a long chat, explaining his plans for the club and that he wanted Xhaka to play a big part.

“Without him [Arteta], I would not be here in this football club anymore,” Xhaka told ESPN in 2022. “He helped me a lot when I was completely down. He took me aside, helped me with small things, step by step, tactically, as a person, mentality, between the team and the club, tried to help me as well with the fans.”

Xhaka’s re-intergration was probably helped by the Covid break, and football without fans.

Despite being integratted back into the Arsenal first team, there were still plenty of grumbles in the home fan base, fueled once again by those twats in caps that liked to hang around the ground after games to try and impress teenage boys online.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused all competitions to be suspended from March until mid-June. Fans would not be allowed back in the ground for the rest of the season. This allowed Xhaka to lay the foundations to help rebuild his Arsenal career and relationship with fans.

In the summer of 2020, Arsenal signed Thomas Partey. It was the first time we had recruited a top player that could play next to Xhaka, allow Xhaka to push further forward.

Almost the entire of 2020/21 was played without crowds due to the pandemic.

Xhaka would have a tough 2020 and his hot head would flare up again after clashing with Dwight McNeil in a game against Burnley  and later grabbing Ashley Westwood by the neck.

Despite constantly being labelled by the media as ill-disiplined, the red card against Burnley would be his first for Arsenal in over 3 and a half years. Xhaka would never be sent off for Arsenal for 2 yellow cards during his Arsenal career. The label was clearly unfair.

It also felt like at times he was referred different to other players, showing that they had been influenced by the media and that is “reputation preceeded him”.

His sending off against Swansea, for an innocuous trip, left Arsenal fans to continually comment “if that was Xhaka….” everytime an opponent was not even booked for a similar (or more serious) challenge.

Another incident that sticks in the head is when Xhaka was booked for his first foul, and the referee at the time pointed to 3 different places on the pitch indicated that the booking was for persistent fouling.

A string of mistakes would follow and come the end of 2021, Xhaka was expected to depart the club.

With his reputation of being ill-disciplined and mistake ridden, no substantial bid came in. Roma came the closest but were only willing to pay £10million. Again, Arteta spoke to Xhaka reiterating his importance and adding him to his leadership team.

The saying goes “time is a healer” and by the time fans returned in 2021, a lot had happened.

The Palace incident was almost 2-years previous, and match going fans were just happy to be back in the ground again following nearly 18 months of lockdown and no football.

People had lost loved ones, found themselves isolated and when back on the terraces, booing Xhaka could not be any further from a fans mind.

Xhaka would receive his 5th (and final) red card during the 2022 season against Liverpool. Five red cards across 7 seasons and nearly 300 games is certainly not the sign of someone who has disicpline problems.

2021/22 would give Arsenal fans an insight of what was to come.

Xhaka had begun to venture a little further forward and his goal against Manchester United would be named Arsenal Goal of the Season.

Mikel Arteta transitioned from 4231 to 4141 in 2022/23, and for the first time in his Arsenal career Xhaka found himself playing in a similar position as he did for Switzerland.

He was like a new signing.

Xhaka would finish the season with 7 goals and 7 assists, and just 4 yellow cards in the league. His highest goal and assists total, and lowest yellow and red card total in his 7 years in England. He was a man reborn.

For the first time in 5 years, there was no talk in the crowd, or the pubs around the ground, about Xhaka’s future. Everyone pretty much agreed that he still had a future at the club.

But then as Arsenal’s season came to an end, speculation mounted that Xhaka felt it was time to return to Germany.

Xhaka had two young children entering school age and he had decided he wanted to move his family back to the Rhine valley where he, and his wife, had spent much of their lives. A deal to Leverkusen for around £12m had reportedly been agreed.

The final game was an emotional one for both Xhaka and the fans. He would sign off with 2 goals (and should have got a hat trick) as we beat Wolves 5-nil. He would then say his goodbyes to the Arsenal faithful as his name was sung around the ground.

Arsenal did not want to just let Xhaka walk out of the door for cheap whilst playing the best football of his career.

Firstly they recruited his replacements in Declan Rice and Kai Havertz, then they returned to Leverkusen to re-negotiatite the transfer. A deal would be done north of £20million.

Xhaka has had a rollercoster of a career at Arsenal.

In every interview, he comes across as very thoughtful and knowledgable. And in his later years on the pitch he has become the leader of Arsenal’s young team.

Many a young player hve mentioned Xhaka as being the one who helped them settle into the first team. Xhaka himself spoke recently about he felt he had to be a role model for these younger players. I think that certainly contributed to his calmer head on the pitch.

In 2016 I said he would be a future Arsenal captain, I would not be surprised is he returned to Arsenal in the future as manager.

Xhaka was the face of Arsenal’s demise from 2016-2022, but his form contributed to Arsenal’s rise in 2023. He will certainly be missed both on the pitch and on the training ground.

I wish him luck back in Germany and hope that he finds the happy state of mind that he needs.

Goodbye, good luck and thank you, Granit.

Keenos

Arsenal need to sell £100m worth of talent to balance the books

Before the transfer window opened, I predicted we would spend around £100-150million.

The £100m was from our own funds. The space in the budget saved by regaining control of our wage bill after the Mesut Ozil / Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang catastrophes, plus the additional money from new commercial deals and our return to Champions League football.

I felt we could push above the £150m mark depending on sales.

Thus far, we have comitted £105m to Declan Rice and around £65m on Kai Havertz. Jurrien Timber will complete the puzzle for Mikel Arteta and take our summer spending to around £210m.

We will pay around £165m in upfront payments – so not too far north of the £150m I predicted. We do need to take into account those add-ons though, and at some point they will have to be factored into our accounts.

What Arsenal have done which I did not expect was spend before we sell.

I expected the summer to go along the lines:

Stage one: Sign a top midfielder, add a squad defender, spending around £100m
Stage two: Sell some fringe players
Stage three: Buy an attacking player
Stage four: Further signings only made after further sales.

What we have done right now is skip Stage two.

We have signed the top midfielder (Declan Rice), the squad defender is incoming (Jurrien Timber) and the attacker secured (Kai Havertz). Stage one ae Stage three done. Further signings will now only be made after sales. Stage four.

But before those further signings are made, we still need to complete Stage two. Selling some fringe players.

By my estimation, we now need to sell close to £100m of talent to balance those books. Only after that level of funds be raised can we perhaps look to dip back into the market and sign one more (a defensive midfielder to replace Thomas Partey if he departs).

If we do not make the £100m in sales, and Partey does depart, we might not be able to re-invest those funds he raises into a replacement. We might need the PArtey transfer fee to help balance the books.

But things are not a disaster.

In June, I blogged about how Arsenal could look to raise £190m in sales. This would be a huge sum. One I would be surprised if we hit.

This was my list from that blog (with fees taken from Transfermarkts “Market Value” algorithm):

At the time of writing, the only two departures on that above list is Pablo Mari and Ainsley Maitland-Niles.

Mari joined Monza at the end of last month, for a fee believed be around €4.9m. That works out at £4.2m. Not too far off the estimation above.

Maitland-Niles also departed following the expiration of his contract. He is yet to join a new club, with West Ham, Everton, Crystal Palace and Sheffield United link. There has also been talk of him joining the Saudi-revolution.

By not offering Maitland-Niles a new deal, we have sacrificed any compensation. The regulations read: “no compensation is payable if the former club does not offer the player a new contract”.

Granit Xhaka will probably be the first big name to depart once the ink is dry on the Rice deal.

Recent reports are that Arsenal have re-negotiated the deal with Bayer Leverkusen, upwards from the £12m believed to have been initally agreed to a healthier £21.5m.

If this is the case, do not be surprised if Arsenal play a friendly at Leverkusen next summer.

The £21.5m is not too far off the Transfermarkt estimation.

You would be very surprised if Runar Alex Runarsson, Cedric Soares, Auston Trusty, Charlie Patino, Albert Sambi Lokonga and Nuno Tavares were still at the club next season. Arsenal will be hoping to earn around £50m in those sales, taking us halfway to the £100m I think we need to raise to balance the books.

The 6 names above, plus Xhaka and Mari could see the club net around £75m in transfer fees. Thins are beginning to fill a lot healthier.

We then come onto Nicolas Pepe.

I am very surprised there has been little talk about Pepe to Saudi Arabia.

Maybe their representatives sought out his representatives and it was a hard “no” as Pepe still has ambitions to succeed in Europe.

With a year left on his contract, there has been some talk that Arsenal might rip it up, leaving him free to return to France. A French team could then use the lack of transfer fee to subsidise his Arsenal level wages.

Failing that, it might be another loan deal for Pepe. For now I think we have to assume he will raise £0m.

That leaves Arsenal having to sell some of our “better” fringe players. Those who are a lot closer to the first team in comparison to the fringe players mentioned above – Emile Smith Rowe, Kieran Tierney, Folarin Balogun.

To break through the £100m barrier, we probably only need to sell one of them.

Our starting price for Balogun is £50m, but you have to suspect we would accept closer to 35m, plus sell on and buy back clauses.

You can easily see Tierney and Smith Rowe fetching £30m in the current market.

It remains to be seen who of the 3 will go.

I think Balogun is a certainty (unless Eddie Nketiah suddenly packs his bags), whilst the door is open to both Tierney and Smith Rowe.

Arsenal are probably not actively trying to sell either Smith Rowe or Tierney, but our heads could be quickly turned if the right offer came in.

Both are surplus to requirements, but could also have minor roles to play next season.

As mentioned, one departure would likely push Arsenal through the £100m barrier, all 3 would see us raise £150m.

Then we come onto Thomas Partey.

I am kind of ignoring the fee he will generate because I would expect it to go straight back into signing his replacement.

You can certainly see a situation where we sell Partey for £40m then buy Romeo Lavia for around £45m.

The only way his fee does not get re-invested is if we fail to make the required sales.

We do not sell the 6 grouped together above for £50m. We fail to Balogun, Tierney or Smith Rowe. The Partey fee will then be needed to help balance the books.

But saying that, if we are struggling to sell those mentioned, then we will perhaps be looking to actively sell Tierney and Smith Rowe.

That would see their value drop below the £30m as buying clubs will know we need sell to balance the books. But selling the pair would raise the same as Partey’s transfer to Saudi Arabia, and I think I would prefer to keep Thomas.

As for Rob Holding, the transfer fee for him is negligable.

There is talk of a loan deal to turkey. Although I wonder if this was a joke taken too far considering his recent hair re-growth.

Holding will not generate the fee of Smith Rowe or Tierney, so it will all be down to his own ambition.

If he is happy and settled in North London, happy to train at London Colney with little opportunity to play, then he will stay.

What you might see is a club come in late for him during the transfer window to offer a loan deal. Someone who has sold a centre back or two and been unable to recruit a replacement.

Crystal Palace and Wolves could both certainly fall into the category.

So Arsenal need to sell £100m worth of talent to balance the books.

I think we will do that and more.

As the summer goes on, I will keep tracking sales against the Transfermarkt based prediction above. Let’s see if how close we get to those estimated fees…

Keenos

Best from Chelsea, best from West Ham – Who’s next for The Arsenal?

When Liverpool won the league in 2020, they failed to build on their squad.

Summer 2020, they signed just a single player – Ibrahima Konate.

Manchester City then went and won the next 3 league titles as Liverpool dropped from 1st to 5th.

To stay at the top, you need to keep building your squad, investing in it. Stand still and you go backwards. Manchester City do this every year.

In 2021/22, City won the league, scoring 99 goals. They went out and bought Erling Haaland.

This season, following the treble, they have already signed Matteo Kovacic and look set to also secure Josko Gvardiol.

With 4 central defenders that cost £50m+ already in their squad, they are going out and spending £100m on another one. I imagine Aymeric Laporte will be the centre back sacrificed.

Following our season last year, where we kept up with City all the way only to fall short on the run in, we have been aggressive in the transfer market.

Declan Rice was West Ham’s best player and captain. This is not saying much as they do not really have many top players. Certainly no others anywhere near Rice’s level.

Rice is not only one of West Ham’s best players, but England’s as well.

Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice, John Stones. England’s 4 World Class players.

To go out and sign one of the best midfielders in the world is a huge statement.

With all the talk about Rice, I think the Kai Havertz deal has been slept on by many.

Ignore the noise coming out from Chelsea fans. Havertz was their best player last season. And has probably been their best player since joining the club in 2020.

Havertz is still just 24-years-old, and is one of the first names on Germany’s team sheet. He is a fantastic player.

Rice and Havertz are both very similar profile players..

Both similar age, both played a lot of football for their age, both one of their countries best players, both their former clubs best player.

We have signed the best player in West London, the best player in East London. We already have the best player in North London. Do we dare venture South?

Keenos