That’s all folks…Arsenal unlikely to make any more major transfers

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Good morning from Copenhagen….what a city!

15 July 2023. A little more than a month after the domestic transfer window opened and 15 days after the international transfer business is open, Arsenal likely have concluded their major transfer business for this summer.

All those people who complain about us taking so long over transfers, about our dithering, and whatever else they are moaning about. It is simple a case of not needing to rush.

We did not need to rush through a transfer because were were doing our business early. And this is becoming a key component of the Arteta / Edu era.

We did it last season with Gabriel Jesus, Fabio Vieira and Matt Turner all signing before 4 July. Olexsandr Zinchenko was our final major signing of last summers transfer window – signed on 22 July.

This year, we have concluded out major transfers a week earlier.

Arteta has apparently been very clear on matters. He wants his players in before the season starts so that he gets most of the pre-season with them.

Declan Rice and Jurrien Timber were always going be announced during the gap between us landing from Germany and flying out to the USA.

The players returned from Germany on Thursday,
Timber was announced by Friday,
We signed Declan Rice on Saturday,
We fly to the USA on Sunday,
Chilled on Monday.

With around £200m spent on Kai Havertz, Timber and Rice, we are unlikely to spend big on a 4th major signing, unless we see some significant departures.

Many of the departures we will see are players that are surplus to reqiuirements.

The likes of Kieran Tierney, Folarin Balogun, Nicolas Pepe, Nuno Tavares, Albert Sambi Lokonga, Charlie Patino, Austin Trusty, Rob Holding, Cedric Soares and Runar Alex Runarsson could raise us around £100m. Add in what we have already received for Granit Xhaka and Pablo Mari, and we should be looking at raising a figure in excess of this figure.

These income will be to offset the £200m spend (our natural budget prior to player sales is around £100m). It will not free up funds for further signings.

We will only return to the market as a buyer if the likes of Thomas Partey or Emile Smith Rowe leaves.

Neither is “for sale”, but the club would consider a deal if the money is right. It would have to be £40m or more each.

If either leave, then we might go back in for Xavi Simons or Romeo Lavia. They would be like for like replacements at similar transfer fees.

For now, we can enjoy our summer, enjoy our pre-season, knowing that our major transfer business is done.

There will be no last minute scramble for deals. There is no point Sky Sports News putting a reporter on the Bears roundabout on deadline day.

Those that rely on spreading Arsenal transfer gossip for clicks and revenue will now need to find a new source of income. Meanwhile, we will keep pumping out quality content that does not rely on clickbait titles.

Enjoy your summer holidays.

UTA

Keenos

Will Lionel Messi face Arsenal for the MLS All-Stars?

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I never really got the Lionel Messi hype. Nor Cristiano Ronaldo for that matter.

It is clearly both are two of the best players to ever grace the game. Generational talents. Up there with Pele, Diego Maradona and Johan Cruyff.

Football’s version of Rafa Nadal and Roger Federer. Two of the best ever both at their peak at the same time.

What I never really understood was the new type of fan they created.

About 15 years ago, Arsene Wenger spoke about how in the future, we will see fans support individual players rather than the club they played for. And Messi and Ronaldo were the first that drew this type of attention. And to a lesser extent, Mesut Ozil.

They created “fanboys”. Mainly male’s from the ages of 15-25 who were neither from the country of Ronaldo or Messi’s birth, nor from the country they played in. They would promote Messi and Ronaldo to beyond footballers, beyond sportstars. They would become global superstars.

This sort of thing is not new, and has been around for decades in music. Think Harry Styles or Robbie Williams, Taylor Swift or Beyonce Knowles. Their fans would be screaming at their concerts, crying when they saw them for the first time. They would eat up all content associated with them, read every article written. Buy every song no matter how bad.

And if they released a bad track, they would not have it that it was poor. They would go out of their way to defend it, and look to attack anyone that disagreed.

The worst of them would stand outside hotels, outside restaurants, day in day to catch a glimpse of them, to get a hug.

I always felt sorry for these sort of people. Needing to hero worship well into their teens to clearly make up for a lack of love and affection at home.

And Ronaldo and Messi were similar.

When Messi left Barcelona to PSG, his fans followed.

They unfollowed Barcelona across social media and changed their bio’s to show they were not a fan of PSG. The French side saw a huge jump in followers just because of Messi. AC Milan had similar when they re-siegned Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

When Cristiano Ronaldo left Juventus for Manchester United, the Old Lady lost close to 500k followers.

Ronaldo’s new club – Al Nassr – had just 369k followers on is English language Twitter account in December 2022. Within a month of his signing, this jumped to over 1m, a 183% increase.

It is interesting to note that its Arabic account, followed mainly by people from its region, saw a much smaller jump. just a 13% increase.

This highlights that the the increase was mainly driven from outside the region Al Nassr play in. It was their fanboys from Africa, the far East, America and beyond jumping on the bandwagon.

Inter Miami saw similar – their twitter jumped 174% in a week following Messi’s announcement.

Where Ronaldo and Messi go, their fanboys follow. No longer fans of Barcelona, Real Madrid, PSG, Juventus of Manchester United. They now follow Al Nassr and Inter Miami.

What I have never really understood is the way both “fan bases” spend hours on end attacking each other, trying to diminish the achievements of the other in attempt to prove that their man is better.

Messi and Ronaldo are both two of the best to ever play the game. I have had the displeasure to watch both in the stadium on many occasions. I say displeasure because their sparkling performances usually led to an Arsenal defeat.

I would say 95% of fans will happily sit there and say “Messi and Ronaldo were both brilliant players” and then get on with their day.

That 5% though are odd. Are dangerous. You get Ronaldo fans trying to claim Messi is overhyped, is not very good. And in response Messi fans say the same about Ronaldo.

If you ever end up on that side of Twitter, you realise how toxic it is.

These people do not care about the clubs their heroes play for. It is all about Messi and Ronaldo. They will never have the affinity to a club that I have, that you have.

I loved Thiery Henry when he was in an Arsenal shirt. But the day he left I stopped caring. I was not bothered what he did at Barcelona, or what he won or did not win. And this is the way most normal football are like.

I actually feel sorry for them as they are still trying to promote their man despite both of them now in semi-retirement just looking to see out their career and boost their bank balance.

And they seem to think Ronaldo or Messi care about them. They do not.

So will Messi play tonight? To be honest, I do not really care. It is all about The Arsenal, our preperation. And not about the circus that follows a player who is passed his best and will be retired within a couple of years.

On a final note, I was always Federer over Nadal. I prefered his grace across a court. But I could also respect Nadal’s power, energy and physicality. Both played the game very different. But are the two best to ever play it.

Keenos

£20m below the asking price – Arsenal get the Rice deal they wanted

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“Why are we negotiating, Edu just needs to pay the asking price” was heard continually throughout the Declan Rice transfer saga.

West Ham’s initial asking price was apparently £120m, cash up front. Through negotiations, Arsenal are paying £100m upfront with £5m add ons.

Negotiating has saved the club £20m upfront.

I always felt an offer in and around £100m would get the deal done, and to achieve that Arsenal had to begin their bidding below this figure. At around £80m.

Likewise, I think West Ham were always targeting that £100m mark, which is why they started at £120m. That would give themselves space to be negotiated down.

One club starts at £80m, the other at £120m, and they end up meeting (almost) in the middle.

I’ve watched enough Pawn Stars to know how often “meet in the middle” ends up the result of negotiations, and that is what happened here.

What I find funny is those West Ham twitter accounts that kept talking about “£120m and not a penny less” are now celebrating David Sullivan for negotiating up Arsenal’s offer to £100m.

They seem to have forgotten that the asking price was £120m, and that they said they should not sell himfor a penny less for.

Arsenal negotiated West Ham down to save themselves £20m

Also funny is those Man City fans who were “delighted to have helped” West Ham earn £100m. They seem to think that Man City only bided to push the Arsenal price up, and it is just to this bidding that Arsenal spent £100m.

This isn’t eBay lads where you get a pal to bid for the shirt you’re selling to up the price.

The Arsenal negotiating team also agreed favourable payment terms.

Starting points for payments seemed to be that West Ham wanted £75m in 2023/24, witht he remaining £25m paid during the 2024/25 tax year. Two payments, with the bulk upfront and the full £100m paid up within almost 12 months.

Reports were that Arsenal’s first offer proposed the guaranteed portion of the fee be paid over the course of four years – payments due in 2023, 2024, 2025 & 2026. £25m a year.

In the end, the deal was agreed for the fee to be paid across three years – 2023, 2024 and 2025, with equal payments of around £33.3m paid during each period.

We have been able to spread the debt over 3 years (instead of West Ham’s original demand of 2), and just £33.3m being paid this summer.

Paying just £33.3m this summer rather than £75m basically enabled us to sign Jurrien Timber.

Of course, West Ham fans will say “Arsenal wanted to pay £25m for 4 years and we got them to agree to £33.3m for 3 years”. And again, this shows why it is important to negotiate.

West Ham went in with 2-years payment terms, Arsenal responded with 4-years, and they met in the middle with 3 years.

So we have £120m asking price, a counter off of £80m and a meet in the middle of £100m. 2-years payment terms requested, 4-years offered, 3-years agreed.

Both sides got the fee and payment terms they probably wanted to begin with. The rest of it is just negotiating tactics.

Arsenal negotiating team, which includes Richard Garlick (Edu has nothing to do with it), have decades of top level corporate and sporting negotiating experience. Man City’s interest would not have forced them into “overpaying”.

In the end, Arsenal signed their man for the top end of what they were willing to pay, West Ham sold their captain and best player.

I still find it odd to read some West Ham fans celebrating the sale of Rice. It probably just shows that all they care about is Twitter clout, and not their team progressing. It will be interesting to see what they do with the money (and how many others follow Rice out the door).

And that concludes one of the most boring transfer sagas in Premier League History.

Declan Rice of Arsenal and England.

Keenos