Declan Rice news embargo

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Morning all and the start of another week.

England play again tonight against North Macedonia. After thheir final international game, players will then look to disappear around the globe on their holidays.

Some will book a private villa in the Caribbean and not be heard of. Others will be pictured chatting to some wannabe WAGs in Ibizia. Some will return to their home country and spend the time with their family.

Arsenal players will return from their break in the first week of July to begin pre-season training.

As we revealed last week, after a few days in London Colney, the first team squad will fly to Germany for a training camp, before spending a week in America. They will then return to London for the Emriates Cup and Community Shield and then the season starts!

Whilst players are on international duty, do not expect too much to happen in terms of transfer business. Players will be focusing on performing for their country.

There is then a small window between players finishing their season and going away. Some players will try and force through their deals in this window, so that everything is done and dusted before they go off to the beach.

What then happens is a bit of a lull as players are relaxing. Then a flurry of transfer business in the week before pre-season starts as players return to the UK.

And that is why we are putting a self-imposed new embargo on any more SheWore Declan Rice blogs.

If the deal is not done this week, we do not expect it to be officially announced until the end of the month. Although the deal could be provisonally completed earlier.

Arsenal will not call Rice back from his summer relaxation time for promo shots ahead of the official announcement. These will happen after he has finished his holiday (if not done this week).

That means we could have plenty of chatter as journalists and social media click baiters rehash old news, talk about deals being close, offers going in, offers being rejected and interest from other clubs. The truth is 99% of those talking do not actually know what is going on.

We spoke on Saturday about ignoring the noise around Declan Rice.#

All the rubbish of other clubs being interested creating a bidding war, Arsenal being wrong to negotiate and should just “pay the price for Rice” and West Ham fans tweeting more about Arsenal than their own club is tiring.

So we have decided to not add to that noise. We will not be blogging on Rice until he either signs for us, signs for someone else, or announces he will remain at West Ham.

I am still in the “Rice only wants Arsenal” camp, which puts us in a strong position when negotiating. Interest from Chelsea or Manchester City do not matter if he does not want to join them. And West Ham will eventually have to agree to a deal as Rice clearly does not want to remain in East London.

So if the deal does not happen this week, my bet is it will happen during the first week of July.

Some news that escaped us with all the Rice bollocks was Arsenal announcing the 13 players that left us due to their contract expiring.

The biggest name on the list was Ainsley Maitland-Niles. The club have done a really good piece on his departure.

Part of me feels for Ainsley. We should have sold him 3 years ago to Wolves for £20m.

At the last minute, we decided to reject a bid that had previously been rejected and Ainsley stayed. His career really has stagnated since.

Back then, he was in and around the England squad, and who knows how he would have pushed on with regular football.

Following Arsenal blocking his exit, Mikel Arteta barely played him and he has been loaned out to WBA, Roma and Southampton.

Maitland-Niles is not immune for criticism in his decline. He did not impress on any of those loan deals and did not put a case forward for himself to return to Arsenal and become a key member of the first team.

I think there is an attitude problem there. He feels sorry for himself a little too much and blames everyone else. He clearly lacks motivation to push on.

Ainsley turns 26 in August and has earned himself £15million over the course of his Arsenal career. If he ahs been sensible with his money, he could retire tomorrow and never work again.

I hope he does not and he finds himself in a place where he is happy again, both on and off the pitch.

He could still go on to have a good decade of Premier League football. It is just whether he wants to keep going.

Others to leave include George Lewis. You might remember him as being the Rwandan born Norwegian who signed not long after we agreed a deal with Visit Rwanda.

Matt Smith is the only other “known” player to depart.

He leaves after spending 16 years with the club, winning an FA Cup winenrs medal, being on our bench around 100 times but never actually making his debut.

I wonder if there is any other outfield player that has been selected as many times in the match day squad without seeing game time?

A couple of omissions from the released list were Reiss Nelson and Ethan Nwaneri.

It shows that we are still in talks with both Nelson and Nwaneri on new deals.

Whilst their release has not yet been confirmed, if new deals can not be agreed they will both still depart at the end of the month.

Have a good day and remember, lets not talk about Rice baby.

Keenos

How long is Arsenal’s season ticket waiting list?

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A mate of mine recently joined the Arsenal season ticket waiting list. His place in the queue? 94,495.

With around 95,000 on the waiting list, my estimation is that is around a 20-year wait. Potentially more.

I would be very surprised if more than 5,000 fans do not renew their season ticket each summer. my estimation is you are looking at 2,000-3,000 a season.

At 3k a season, it would take over 30-years for my pal to get a season ticket.

In recent years, the club have also begun to allow a season ticket to be inherited when a loved one passes away. This further reducing the turnover of season tickets.

You often here about someone 10,000 on the waiting list being offered a season ticket, but this is not because 10,000 have failed to renew.

If someone turns down the offer of a season ticket, it goes to the next person in the queue. So you could be in a scenario where 3,000 season tickets come available, but only 1 in 3 of those in the queue take them up. And that’s when you get someone in 5 figures on the waiting list being offered it.

There could be many reasons someone does not take up the offer. The first being finances.

With season tickets costing upwards of £974, not everyone can find nearly a grand at short notice.

Whereas season ticket holders know a year in advance that they will need to shell out ~£1,000 in 12 months time, those on the waiting list only find out after the renewal process has closed. And they are usually only given a couple of weeks to come up with the money.

If you do not take the clubs offer up of a season ticket, you do not lose your place in the queue. You keep it. Then you know in a years time you are likely to be offered one again so can start saving.

Arsenal’s most expensive non-hospitality option is £1,895.50. Whilst some might take up the offer of this to “get their foot in the door”, many will turn it down and wait to be offered a cheaper one in a years time.

It is not easy to move seats, and the club have suspended moving applications in the last couple of years. It 2018, the club had 6,000 fans request to move seat.

For many, it is better to wait one more year to try and get a £974 ticket than be stuck with paying double that for the foreseeable.

This year would have seen record season ticket renewals following our performances in 2022/23. I would be surprised if more than 2% opted not to renew. When the club announce the figure, I expect it to be closer to 1%.

That means there might only be 400-800 season tickets coming available to those on the waiting list this summer.

(Note: We have been informed that due to the increase in season ticket holders following Covid – all those who took a one-year season ticket during the pandemic were offered a permanent one – there will be no new season ticket holders this summer. Any season ticket not renewed will go into the pot for silver and red members to purchase).

The last time I looked into the season ticket waiting list was 2018 when I was moving my seat. Back then, there were 44,000 people on it.

Despite Covid, despite us finishing 8th, the season ticket waiting list has more than doubled in the last 5 years.

Will there become a point where we close the waiting list like Liverpool have done? Or do the club keep it open, taking the one off payment of £50 from fans to sit on the list (the fee is refunded when you pay for your first season ticket).

Should the club implement a rule that if you turn down a season ticket, you are out to the end of the queue? Maybe give them a one season grace? So you can turn it down the first time, but in 12 months time if you turn it down again you are bumped to the back of the queue.

All I know is any of you with kids, get them on the waiting list now.

It is only £25 to join and by the time they are in their mid 20s, they will have their own Arsenal season ticket.

Happy Father’s Day.

Keenos

Ignore the noise around Declan Rice

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The Declan Rice deal is very noisy now. My advice – ignore it all.

I have never known a deal where so many journalists seem to have access to information.

The majority of these journalists (and “news” Twitter accounts) are not actually privy to anything. They are either guessing what is happening, or just putting a spin on what other, more connected, journalists are saying.

Those putting a spin on things will change a couple of details of the rumours, or make it look like Arsenal are closer or further away from compelting the deal. All to stand out from the crowd. To drive those clicks, hits and RTs that they need to generate revenue.

But there are some journalists, and Twitter accounts, that are privy to information.

Where do they get their information? You ask.

A variety of sources. I answer. With the main ones being either the clubs themselves of player representatives.

Clubs will often use journalists and social media bods to leak details of deals. Agents will do the same.

They do this in an attempt to:

  • drive up the transfer fee
  • drive down the transfer fee
  • drive up wages
  • get a deal to hurry up
  • generate interest from other clubs

And this is what is happening with the Declan Rice deal.

The leaks are coming from the West Ham side, not the Arsenal or Rice sides.

We know this because of who is breaking the news. Mark Noble’s autobiographier and big West Ham Twitter accounts.

Those breaking the news right now are basically the West Ham versions of David Ornstein and Arseblog.

Everyone else writing about the deal is basically jumping on what either these two say. And then creating their own narrative which often ends up misquoting and those that actually know things.

So let’s take the Manchester City news as an example.

“Man City showing interest in Declan Rice” was what broke Thursday. This lead to hysteria from certain West Ham fans, who are literally begging for Manchester City to buy their captain:

It is clear that the leak of City’s interest came from the west Ham side due to who was “breaking it”.

Firstly, it is not exactly breaking news that Manchester City (and Chelsea and Manchester United) are interested in Declan Rice. Rice is World Class and was always going to attract interest.

But there is a difference between a club showing interest, and a club taking serious interest. And none of the 3 clubs named above have taken serious interest.

They might have contacted Rice’s intermediaries to discuss whether he would be interested in joining (the first step in any transfer) and have all probably been knocked back. Rice wants Arsenal. And there interest moved elsewhere.

Chelsea moved their focus to Moises Caicedo, Manchester City look to be signing Matteo Kovacic on a free transfer, and as for Manchester United – who knows?

The leak about Manchester City is just an attempt by West Ham to try push up Arsenal’s transfer offer.

West Ham hoped there would be a bidding war for Rice. Arsenal, City, United, Chelsea, Bayern Munich and more. That has not (yet) happened, so they are trying to create a fake one using favourable journalists and large Twitter accounts.

This information leaked then gets re-hashed by other journalists and smaller Twitter accounts, giving the stories legs and a larger reach.

It has even gone as far as journalists not close to the deal (and smaller Twitter accounts) writing stories such as “City offer West Ham £70m+Phillips”. No. That has not happened.

The other part of the deal that is being leaked is what Arsenal have offered, and had rejected.

Reports that Arsenal offered around £80m+£10m in add-ons. That West Ham found this offer “embarrassing” and the add-ons “unrealistic”. Again this all came from the West Ham side.

West Ham are attempting to shame Arsenal publicly into increasing the bid. Hoping that by using emotive words, they will get Arsenal fans critcise Edu and his team online. That the media will eat it up. And that this will pressure Arsenal into increasing the offer to save face.

But it has to be remembered those negotiating are not some 18-year-old trying to buy his first car.

It is Richard Garlick, Director of Operations, and Tim Lewis, non-executive director.

Despite some often mentioning Edu and Vinai Venkatesham, neither man gets involved in negotiating with clubs or players. Venkatesham previously did under the Raul Sanllehi regime but has not stepped aside.

To put it simple, Edu establishes who we should be alongside Mikel Arteta and the recruitment team. They then pass this onto Garlick and Lewis who try to get the deals done.

Garlick is the former Premier League Director of Football, who oversaw negoations for new TV deals at home and abroad. Lewis is a corporate lawyer with decades of experience at top London firms. These lads are not mugs and will not buckle under a bit of social media pressure.

If you look at where the news is coming from, and ignore the noise from those that do not know, it becomes very obvious that West Ham are leaking news in try and push up the money Arsenal will pay for Rice.

At the end of the day, it does not matter what Manchester City offer West Ham. If Rice does not want to join them, he will not sign a contract. And West Ham fans need to realise that!

So what do we actually know?

Arsenal bid for West Ham, and that bid was someway off their asking price. But this is totally normal in football.

West Ham want £120m, but they will probably sell for £100m. Arsenal wanted are happy to pay £100m, so start the bidding at £80m. And then you meet in the middle – £100m.

If West Ham only demanded £100m to begin with, the deal would probably get done for £90m. Likewise if Arsenal went in at £100m, we would end up paying £110m.

I do wonder sometimes if some of the Twitterati have ever bought themselves a car or a house.

Never pay the asking price. And your first offer should never be at the top of what you are willing to pay.

And negotiating to buy a football player is no different to buying a house or car.

Even in my old job as a recruiter, the rates I quoted would be based on 25% mark up, but my KPI was 20%. That then allowed me to be negotiated town to 20%. The buyer thinks they have got a deal and I have got what I wanted.

So ignore the noise, or at least understand who is making it.

My bet is the deal is done over the next 7 days before Rice goes away on his holidays.

UTA.

Keenos