Nelson new deal signifies Smith Rowe’s exit

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I have previously made my opinion on Reiss Nelson clear.

Nelson is not good enough for Arsenal, and his 10 seconds of greatness against Bournemouth does not change that.

I think it is clear that Mikel Arteta also does not fancy him – Nelson has played just 5% of the available this season, highlighting that the Spaniard does not think he is adequete cover or competition for Bukayo Saka.

Nelson has started just 1 Premier League game this season, showing that Arteta does not think Nelson is an option on the right when he wants to give Saka a rest.

Yesterday the news broke that Nelson had agreed a new 4-year deal with Arsenal, following in the footsteps of Saka’s new deal.

Whilst I do not think Nelson is good enough for The Arsenal, that does not mean I do not understand the reasoning for his new deal.

Arsenal have other positions to financially prioritise

We are in the market for at least one new central midfielder – Declan Rice seems to be the top target.

That signing alone will take up a huge chunk of our transfer budget – I expect us to spend £100-150m depending on sales.

On top of the Rice deal, we need a new central defender or full back.

It is a central defender if we choose to continue with Ben White and Takehiro Tomiyasu at right back. It is a new full back if the team want White to be Saliba’s cover and Tomiyasu to also cover Olexsandr Zinchenko.

I expect that player to be signed for in the region of £15-20m.

Rice and the new defensive option will take us above the £100million mark. There is talk that we are also chasing a 2nd central midfielder (Caicedo, Mount, Zubimendi the names mentioned). That will be the £150m+ spent. We would not have much left in the tank to buy someone who is good enough to compete with Saka.

How about a new striker?

Nelson remaining shows the club might have decided to go down the “new striker” route, rather than sign a winger that can play upfront.

Say we do stretch that transfer budget through generating some exceptional sales, the decision might have been made that another striker is what is coming in.

We might be targetting someone like Dusan Valhovic, or Ivan Toney. And as a sacrifice we will not buy a new winger.

If that happens, we still have plenty of options outwide – Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Leandro Trossard, Gabriel Jesus and Nelson.

Trossard has proved himself to be a very good signing. His versatility means that he will probably be the 2nd choice on both flanks. A new striker would allow us to utilise Jesus outwide.

So if a new striker comes in, Nelson becomes the 5th choice winger. And would only really play if 3 out of the 5 men ahead of him are out.

This summer, we could ivnest in a 1st/2nd choice striker, or a 4th choice winger. We have spoken about the need to improve the squad by buying players who would be part of a 18 man first team. Moving away from having “1st XI / 2nd XI”. A new striker would certainly follow the philosophy. A 4th choice winger would not.

Emile Smith Rowe exit

A new deal confirms what we have been told, that Emile Smith Rowe will leave this summer.

If Smith Rowe was part of Arteta’s plans, there would be no need to keep Nelson. ESR would play that back-up winger role.

Now a debate can be had over who we should be keeping? Nelson or Smith Rowe.

Smith Rowe is the better player. He is more versatile, can play on both flanks and inside. But he also raises the most funds.

If we are talking about Smith Rowe and Nelson being 5th choice winger, then you sell the one that generates the most money.

Nelson’s contract was set to expire in a month. The most Arsenal would get is £6-8 million compensation if he joined an English team. I would expect Smith Rowe to go for between £20-30m.

£20-30m is a huge sum for a fringe player who has played just 226 minutes this season and is 5th choice. It is money that can be reinvested in the top end of the squad.

Smith Rowe has already arguably been replaced by Trossard. The Belgium is the superior player and, importantly, does not have Smith Rowe’s history of injuries.

A few years ago we made the mistake of not cashing in on Ainsley Maitland-Niles.

In 2020, we closed the door on a £20m move to Wolves for Maitland-Niles. He has played just 748 minutes of Premier League football for Arsenal since we turned down that bid.

That £20m could have been invested elsewhere over the last 3 years. And likewise, turning down £30m+ for Smith Rowe would be a bad decision considering how little game time he will see if we improve the top end of the squad.

So what makes sense is Smith Rowe is moved on. We pocket £30m which gets reinvested. And Nelson takes the role of a 5th choice winger. For a year at least.

Nelson will still leave

If Nelson is only 5th choice winger, and we buy a top striker this summer, he will see very little game time. That means he will probably push to depart next summer.

The new deal will mean that we would get a half decent fee in a years time. And then that money can be reinvested.

A new winger next year

Finally, Nelson staying does not mean a new winger will not join Arsenal. It just means it will probably happen next year.

If we do the business we want to do this year – say Rice, Caicedo, Toney and Sluto – then next summer is when we will go for another top winger.

We should not do a Chelsea. Bring in loads of players in a single season, put them all on long contracts and pray it works. You are basically morgaging your future.

We need to get the squad in a position that Manchester United were in the last 90s / early 00s. The position that Manchester City are in now.

You want to only be making one or two big signings a season. But those two big signings dramatically improve your squad.

Next summer is when we recruit a top level winger. Someone better than Trossard that pushes the Belgium down a level in the pecking order. And as a result pushes Nelson out.

Make small, consistent improvements to your squad is how you stay at the top. It is when clubs make big changes they suffer.

My position on Nelson has not changed. I do not think he is good enough for Arsenal.

But if his new deal results in us spending £150m+ on Rice, Caicedo, Sluto and another top striker, then I am happy. Over to you Edu…

PS: I have seen some comment “why is this deal getting done before William Saliba’s. That should have been a priority”. Learn how business works. Just because one deal happens before another, it does not mean it was prioritised. It just means it was agreed earlier.

Football is not linear. You do not work on one deal at the time, and then only work on the next deal once the first one has been completed. Edu and his team will be in multiple discussions with multiple players over new deals. They all just get completed at a different pace.

And it is the same for transfers. Some just take longer than others to get over the line. Just because the first signing of the season might be an unknown, might not be Declan Rice, it does not mean that we prioritised that deal. It just means that deal happened quicker.

Keenos

Mikel Arteta is the man who can deliver another Anfield ‘89 moment (we just have to stick with him)

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Morning all.

As the season rolls into its final game, I just wanted to take a moment to reflect on what happened 34 years ago. Anfield ‘89.

There will never be another finish to a top flight English like what happened between Arsenal and Liverpool. It is the greatest finish to a league season ever.

Sky might try and portray the Aguero moment as the greatest ending, but that is only because they promote the “football only started in 1992” mantra

Thomas, charging through the midfield…Thomas…it’s up for grabs now!!!!

The usual suspects have popped up recently claiming Mikel Arteta should be sacked having failed to win the league.they have been using pictures of the side in 89, in 91, in 98 and 2004 to show what winners are.

We won the league in 89, correct. But in 1988 we finished 6th, having finished 4 in ‘87. If Twitter and social media was around then, these clout chasing fans would have been calling for George Graham’s head at the end of 88.

And no Graham, no Anfield 89.

In 1990, we then dropped to 4th. Modern fans would have been screaming for Graham to be sacked. “Chelsea would have sacked him, they show ambition and don’t accept 4th place”.

A year later, The Arsenal won the league losing just one game. Almost invincible.

Many of these fans grew up on the early Arsene Wenger era, when it was 1st or 2nd for nearly a decade. I remember talking to mates at a time and we agreed we were spoiled during that era.

8 years of never finishing below 2nd. Three league titles, 1 unbeaten. Four FA Cup wins. Two European finals (both lost).

Football is a very different place right now. We have state owned teams that can afford to pay players more in bonus’s than any other player receives in salary in the league (Haaland is reportedly due to get £27.5m in bonuses from Manchester City this season if they win the Champions League).

We have seen one of the greatest Liverpool sides in history end up with just a single league title, despite continually getting 90+ points. It just shows how hard it is to win the Premier League.

Liverpool’s only league title, and the only time in the last 6-years City didn’t win it – came during Covid. And Manchester City accumulated just 81 points.

We now live in a Manchester City world. They will consistently get 90+ points. And the only way other teams will get a sniff is if they have an off season.

And this season, on course to get 92 points, is certainly not an off season.

Anyone who sets their standard of failure bar as “anything below winning the title” is in for a tough life.

We have won just 13 league titles in 135 years. Those great wins of 89 and 91 were spliced between some poor seasons.

I have always wondered if those claiming to have “high standards” apply it to their own life? Or are they just unemployed, living in a Spanish bedsit.

This has been a fantastic season. A year where fans have grown closer to players once again. The ground has been rocking. Away ends bouncing.

If you are an Arsenal fan and have not been able to enjoy this season, then maybe football is not for you.

And if you are demanding Arteta’s head after he took us to second, well shame on you. Sacking a manager whilst on a journey does not lead to success.

Want another ‘89? Stick with Arteta.

Keenos

Arsenal target “Croatian John Stones” for summer transfer

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Last week I labelled Josip Sutalo as the “Croatian John Stones“. And the more I look into this lad, the more I think he will be the perfect man to add depth to Arsenal’s defence.

23-years-old, Sutalo reminds me a lot of Stones in his Everton days.

Comfortable on the ball, sometimes too comfortable. Great reader of the game, but does not always impose his physical presence.

Manchester City knew in Stones they had a player with the natural attributes to be one of the best in the world. He just had to iron out those kinks and fill out his frame. Sutalo is the same.

Sutalo is comfortable with the ball at his feet. A capable short and long passer , he is also very good when he drives forward with the ball.

For Croatia, Josko Gvardiol is becoming his countries Nemanja Vidic to Sutalo’s Rio Ferdinand.

Like Stones, Sutalo does not panic when he is being pressed. He trusts his first touch and technique to get him out of tight situations and find the right pass. He does not quickly become anxious and look to smash the ball forward just because he is under pressure.

Comfortable with both feet, he is also happy bringing the ball forward, breaking those lines between defence and midfield. Important when trying to get through a high press.

But what is his defending like? Again, he reminds me of a young John Stones.

A fantastic reader of the game, he is often in the right position to intercept play rather than having to get involved in a more physical battle against his opponent. Once he has intercepted, he is very good at moving his body shape to protect the ball which gives him the time and space to pick out a pass.

He can struggle physically at times, and certainly does not impose himself in the way someone who is 6ft 3in should. This can occasionally lead him to be too eager to get the ball and overcommit. Again, not unlike Stones at Everton.

What is impressive is when he is one-on-one, with an opponent facing him, he is equally as strong defending on both sides. He is not one of those who will always try and win the ball with his right (and therefore wrong) foot.

This means that when he wins the ball, he is able to escape from the duel quickly and start an attack. And again, his two-footedness means he can get a pass forward with less touches. He does not have to first move the ball from left to right before being comfortable passing.

Sutalo also has good positional awareness.

He is someone who recognises danger and is comfortable tracking runs in behind his full-back. William Saliba and Gabriel do a greatr job covering their full backs, which allos Ben White and Oleksandr Zinchenko to press into midfield.

In the games I have seen him, he is also confident coming out of his defensive line to make a tackle. Looking to press and tackle or intercept a forward moving attacked before they reach the dangerzone of the box.

His game does need polishing. Sutalo sometimes attempts passes which are too risky for the reward, and on occassion he does not get the pass right even though it was the right pass to attempt. But this is something he can learn. He often has the vision, but not always the execution.

His physical presence is also a concern, and this can lead him to be bullied and pinned by more physical forwards. He knows when to get tight to a defender and when to drop off, but he does struggle when he is touch tight and can be pinned and spun easily.

With a reported £20million price tag, he comes a lot cheaper than John Stones did back in 2016. Even though they players with similar attributes.

The step up from Croatia to England is a big one. And we already have a “project centre back” in Jakub Kiwor. But that is where Arsenal are at – making stars not buying them.

For those thinking “not another project”, think about this:

If we miss out on him this summer, and he joins a mid-table Premier League side, I would not be surprised if he moves again for £50million+ in a year or two time. And we will all be complaining that we turned down the opportunity to sign him for £20million.

I have often seen people praise Brighton for their recruitment. With some going as far as saying “we need to recruit their recruiters“. Well Sutalo is the sort of player Brighton would buy, stick next to Lewis Dunk for a year or 18 months, then treble their money on.

If Sutalo fills out his frame, he could become one of those central defenders that has it all – physical presence, great reader of the game, fabulous on the ball. A bit more maturing, like Stones, and he could become a top, top defender.

I am very excited that some outlets are now linking us to Sutalo, He ticks every box needed to replace Holding – and has the ceiling to replace Saliba further down the line if the Frenchman’s contract is not sorted.

Keenos