Ignore the noise around Declan Rice

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The Declan Rice deal is very noisy now. My advice – ignore it all.

I have never known a deal where so many journalists seem to have access to information.

The majority of these journalists (and “news” Twitter accounts) are not actually privy to anything. They are either guessing what is happening, or just putting a spin on what other, more connected, journalists are saying.

Those putting a spin on things will change a couple of details of the rumours, or make it look like Arsenal are closer or further away from compelting the deal. All to stand out from the crowd. To drive those clicks, hits and RTs that they need to generate revenue.

But there are some journalists, and Twitter accounts, that are privy to information.

Where do they get their information? You ask.

A variety of sources. I answer. With the main ones being either the clubs themselves of player representatives.

Clubs will often use journalists and social media bods to leak details of deals. Agents will do the same.

They do this in an attempt to:

  • drive up the transfer fee
  • drive down the transfer fee
  • drive up wages
  • get a deal to hurry up
  • generate interest from other clubs

And this is what is happening with the Declan Rice deal.

The leaks are coming from the West Ham side, not the Arsenal or Rice sides.

We know this because of who is breaking the news. Mark Noble’s autobiographier and big West Ham Twitter accounts.

Those breaking the news right now are basically the West Ham versions of David Ornstein and Arseblog.

Everyone else writing about the deal is basically jumping on what either these two say. And then creating their own narrative which often ends up misquoting and those that actually know things.

So let’s take the Manchester City news as an example.

“Man City showing interest in Declan Rice” was what broke Thursday. This lead to hysteria from certain West Ham fans, who are literally begging for Manchester City to buy their captain:

It is clear that the leak of City’s interest came from the west Ham side due to who was “breaking it”.

Firstly, it is not exactly breaking news that Manchester City (and Chelsea and Manchester United) are interested in Declan Rice. Rice is World Class and was always going to attract interest.

But there is a difference between a club showing interest, and a club taking serious interest. And none of the 3 clubs named above have taken serious interest.

They might have contacted Rice’s intermediaries to discuss whether he would be interested in joining (the first step in any transfer) and have all probably been knocked back. Rice wants Arsenal. And there interest moved elsewhere.

Chelsea moved their focus to Moises Caicedo, Manchester City look to be signing Matteo Kovacic on a free transfer, and as for Manchester United – who knows?

The leak about Manchester City is just an attempt by West Ham to try push up Arsenal’s transfer offer.

West Ham hoped there would be a bidding war for Rice. Arsenal, City, United, Chelsea, Bayern Munich and more. That has not (yet) happened, so they are trying to create a fake one using favourable journalists and large Twitter accounts.

This information leaked then gets re-hashed by other journalists and smaller Twitter accounts, giving the stories legs and a larger reach.

It has even gone as far as journalists not close to the deal (and smaller Twitter accounts) writing stories such as “City offer West Ham £70m+Phillips”. No. That has not happened.

The other part of the deal that is being leaked is what Arsenal have offered, and had rejected.

Reports that Arsenal offered around £80m+£10m in add-ons. That West Ham found this offer “embarrassing” and the add-ons “unrealistic”. Again this all came from the West Ham side.

West Ham are attempting to shame Arsenal publicly into increasing the bid. Hoping that by using emotive words, they will get Arsenal fans critcise Edu and his team online. That the media will eat it up. And that this will pressure Arsenal into increasing the offer to save face.

But it has to be remembered those negotiating are not some 18-year-old trying to buy his first car.

It is Richard Garlick, Director of Operations, and Tim Lewis, non-executive director.

Despite some often mentioning Edu and Vinai Venkatesham, neither man gets involved in negotiating with clubs or players. Venkatesham previously did under the Raul Sanllehi regime but has not stepped aside.

To put it simple, Edu establishes who we should be alongside Mikel Arteta and the recruitment team. They then pass this onto Garlick and Lewis who try to get the deals done.

Garlick is the former Premier League Director of Football, who oversaw negoations for new TV deals at home and abroad. Lewis is a corporate lawyer with decades of experience at top London firms. These lads are not mugs and will not buckle under a bit of social media pressure.

If you look at where the news is coming from, and ignore the noise from those that do not know, it becomes very obvious that West Ham are leaking news in try and push up the money Arsenal will pay for Rice.

At the end of the day, it does not matter what Manchester City offer West Ham. If Rice does not want to join them, he will not sign a contract. And West Ham fans need to realise that!

So what do we actually know?

Arsenal bid for West Ham, and that bid was someway off their asking price. But this is totally normal in football.

West Ham want £120m, but they will probably sell for £100m. Arsenal wanted are happy to pay £100m, so start the bidding at £80m. And then you meet in the middle – £100m.

If West Ham only demanded £100m to begin with, the deal would probably get done for £90m. Likewise if Arsenal went in at £100m, we would end up paying £110m.

I do wonder sometimes if some of the Twitterati have ever bought themselves a car or a house.

Never pay the asking price. And your first offer should never be at the top of what you are willing to pay.

And negotiating to buy a football player is no different to buying a house or car.

Even in my old job as a recruiter, the rates I quoted would be based on 25% mark up, but my KPI was 20%. That then allowed me to be negotiated town to 20%. The buyer thinks they have got a deal and I have got what I wanted.

So ignore the noise, or at least understand who is making it.

My bet is the deal is done over the next 7 days before Rice goes away on his holidays.

UTA.

Keenos

Declan Rice – The next captain of Arsenal and England

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“£100m – Rice is not that good” I have seen quite a few Arsenal fans say.

Hand on heart, I think some fans do not realise how good Declan Rice is.

Maybe it is because he plays for West Ham United, maybe it is because he is English, maybe it is because they just want to moan about us spending money having spent years moaning we have not spent money. Answers on a postcode.

Let’s get things right, Declan Rice is a world class player. Someone who would get into every starting XI in England, Europe and the World. Even Manchester City.

He would also probably start for nearly every national team. Rice is that good.

Versatility

Recently in the pub, I compared Declan Rice to Ruud Gullit.

For those who are too young to remember the Dutchman was a very special footballer. He was strong, quick, had fabulous technique and brilliant reading of the game. He was probably the perfect “total football” player.

It did not matter if Gullit played at centre back, in defensive midfield, attacking midfielder or even further forward, he would be the best player on the pitch. And Declan Rice is a modern day version.

When we were initially targeting Rice, the expectation was that he would replace Thomas Partey in the 6 position.

Rice is one of the few players in world football who has the vision, defensive awareness, stamina and technique who can play the in “sole 6” that Arteta deploys.

He is up there with Rodri, Partey and Casemiro in playing this position. And there are not too many on the continent who are on the same level as the Premier League 4.

But then the Granit Xhaka news broke, and discussion began about Rice playing further forward.

Often for West Ham, Rice has not played as the deepest midfielder. This gives him the security to drive forward with the ball and creating attacking opportunities.

Playing higher up the pitch also lets Rice use his defensive abilities in the final 3rd, adpoting the high press and winning the ball back quickly.

When West Ham won the penalty against Arsenal this season, it was Rice’s pressure on the edge of our box that led to it.

And Rice is also a threat in and around the penalty area.

I have lost count how often West Ham have needed a goal, and Rice has picked up the ball on the edge of the area and driven at players into the box to create a chance. And that is something Arsenal have missed.

Xhaka and Martin Odegaard are not really players to look to take on an opponent. They will use their more subtle skills to create a chance with a pass. Rice is more of a Yaya Toure creator.

Rice powers past players in the box who become too afraid to make a challenge. That puts the defence on the box foot and running back towards their own goal. He could be the battering ram we need to break down a low block defence.

He might not be a goal scoring threat, but I do think he does have the technique to score a lot more. Remember, Toure was not a goal scoring threat until he joined Manchester City and was free to play even further forward.

For a long time, there has also been a feeling that Rice’s best position may be at centre back.

In a better team, you need central defenders that are very comfortable on the ball, dictating play and starting attacks. A top teams centrebacks do not need to be brilliant defenders.

Think of Rio Ferdinand at Manchester United, David Luiz at Chelsea and more recently John Stones at Manchester City. These are ball playing central defenders who became key to the way their teams built from the back. And if they played for a lesser team, they all probably wlould have played regularly in midfield.

Rice has the same attributes as all of these.

Tall, strong, can tackle, great defensive awareness and fantastic distribution. You can certainly see him playing regularly at centreback at some point in his career.

So Arsenal would be getting 3 players in one.

We would be buying a Xhaka replacement in the 8, someone who can play deeper in the 6, and a fella who could be world class at centreback.

I would imagine if we needed a goal, you could probably also sling Rice upfront to be a target man!

Age

Declan Rice only turned 24 in January. He is a month younger than Martin Odegaard…

He has been playing regularly for West Ham since he was 18, which I think makes some think he is older than what he is.

His age profile fits perfectly into what Arteta is building. And he has 10 years (at least) at the top of this game.

Some might be considered he has “played too much too young” but Rice is not built of fragile stuff. He is a solid lad.

Unlike Jude Bellingham who at 19 is already playing with heavy knee strapping, or Jack Wilshere who had persistent ankle issues from a young age, Rice has never had any injury concerns.

He does not overexert himself, he never looks like he is putting emense strain on his body. He cruises through games (this does not mean he is taking it easy, it just means that he is built for a long career as a top athlete).

Like Gullit, as he perhaps loses some of his pace, he will begin to play deeper and deeper. Using that vision and defensive awareness to dictate games from defensive midfield or centreback.

Experience

As mentioned above, he became a regular at 18 for West Ham. He has now played 245 times for them. Over 200 Premier League apperances. Almost all starts.

He also 41 caps for England.

Rice is one of those special bred of players that when he broke through, you just knew he was going to have a long career at the top. And he will come to us as a 24-year-old with bucket loads of experience.

The Europa Conference League win only adds to what he brings to us. He will be hungry for more.

Leadership

If it was not for Mark Noble, Rice probably would have become West Ham’s regular captain a lot earlier.

He first captained West Ham at 20 years old, but did not become their 1st choice captain until last summer after Noble had retired. He captained them to their first trophy in over 40 years.

Rice is the sort of player that leads from the front on the pitch. He never gives up and drives others to be better.

Whilst I do not expect him to replace Odegaard as captain this season, I would not be surprised if he gets the armband at some point. And he would certainly be an option in the future to become club captain.

Rice will also be the next England captain…

Attitude

Unlike another former Irishman turned Englishman, Rice is well behaved off the pitch.

You do not hear of him falling out of nightclubs, passing out in Ibiza or going on 2-3 day benders just because the season is over.

He comes from a well grounded family in South-West London and is in a long-term relationship with his childhood sweetheart. He became a father for the first time last summer.

Rice has recently moved to a new family home on the London / Herts / Essex borders. He is a settled man who just wants to concentrate on his football.

Off the field he reminds me a lot of Harry Kane. Just plays his football, plays his golf, and gets on with things. That is the perfect attitude to join our young squad of players.

We do not need big personalities who will grab hold of the mic and make themselves the centre of attention. We need players who will set a good example. Rice is one of those.

Rice for £100m? Might seem a lot but that is where football is right now.

We are getting a world class player who is brilliant in mutiple positions, has a 10-year career ahead of him and has the experience and leadership to take us to the next level.

The same people moanign that he is not worth £100m would also moan if we refused to pay more than £80m and he went Man City…

Keenos

Kai Havertz, Declan Rice and the fixtures list announced

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Kai Havertz

Last night David Ornstein dropped the news that Arsenal were pursing Kai Havert

We all know Ornstein does not really deal with clickbait transfer speculation and only really comments if he has been leaked solid news from a club. So there is something in this.

Whether the deal materialises probably (as always) comes down to money.

Chelsea reportedly want £70m+, which Arsenal will not pay. If a deal can be done for £50m then we might see it happen.

That lot in West London need to make player sales, and quick. Their deadline to bring in cash to declare it in this years financial accounts is 30 June. That could see them have to sell a few on the cheap.

Could Havertz be one of those? But it is also not as easy as “if Chelsea get £60m, that is £60m positive in their accounts”.

Due to transfer fees being amoritised, Chelsea still have around £45m of the Havertz transfer fee to declare in their accounts – £75m original fee (approx), over his 5 year deal is £15m a year.

They would have amortised £30m in the previous two financial years, with the next £15m going into this years accounts no matter what happens.

If they sell, the full remaining amortised value most go into the accounts of that period. So selling Havertz before 30 June will see a £45m expenditure hit their accounts.

If you consider that £15m is already factored into this years years budgeting, then the additional financial hit is £30m. So if Chelsea sell Havertz for £50m, they will only be generating £20m of positive cash for their accounts.

Personally, I think a deal could be done for £50m, with Chelsea happy to clear that £20m positive.

Whether Havertz is suitable for Arsenal is a longer blog for another day.

Declan Rice

As expected, there is lots of noise around the Declan Rice deal, but not much is seemingly happening.

This is not unusual for those football fans who have been around for more than 10 minutes.

When there is a lack of news, journalists (and clickbait twitter accounts) regurgitate the same old rubbish to drive the hits to their sites. And hits = ad revenue.

The silence gets filled with a vaccum of fake noise.

One minute it is “Arsenal will bid £90+10m” the another “journalist” writes “it will be £80+20m” and then a thirdt writes “the deal will be for over £100m”.

The truth is, none of them know what is going on and all are just taking a stab in the dark to write some content.

We always try hard to stay away from transfer speculation.

We might discuss the validity of a player, or try and predict who we might buy and sell. But we will always stay away from those clickbait headlines and pretending a deal is done when we have no knowledge.

And for those wondering, I have always said I think the deal for Declan Rice will be done at £80+20m.

This is based on no more than me thinking: Arsenal will start at £80m, West Ham at £120m. West Ham will come down to £100m, Arsenal will then counter with £80+20m giving West Ham their £100m.

If I am right, it does not mean I was privy to the deal. Just means I was a good guesser. Just like others who might guess right on fees or who we buy.

Throw enough darts at the board, one will hit the bullseye…

Fixtures list

At around 9am the 2023/24 fixtures list willl drop.

Ignore all of the fakes flying around social media. It happens every year and is just lonely kids making stuff up in the hope they go viral. Fact some mainstream media pick this up and run with it show how poor journalism is in this country.

And whilst the fixtures will be announced today, it will take them weeks to decide what games are on TV. And then it will be the usual rubbish of TV companies missing deadlines to announce games throughout the season.

The Premier League really should clamp down on TV companies missing the deadlines, which in turn lead to fans having to pay higher fares for trains.

A simple fine system, with that money going to clubs to subsidise away travel will resolve this.

Anyway, I predict we will get Luton Town away. It will be a Friday night. And Sky will try and recreate the Brentford match of a few years back.

Keenos