FIVE centre back options to replace Rob Holding at Arsenal

Last week we discussed the profile of new defender Arsenal need to buy in the summer.

  • Better than Holding, but happy to be 2nd choice
  • Pacey, so we do not have to defend deeper
  • Comfortable on the ball
  • Less than £30million
  • Provide an option at right back

Jerry St. Juste

Often when a player has a stand-out game against a side, it leads fans of that club to say “we should sign him”. And Jerry St. Juste certainlly falls into that category.

I am sure before we played Sporting very few had heard of him, and no one would have been calling for the uncapped Dutchman to be an Arsenal summer signing. But that performance put him on many peoples radar.

Buying a player off one or two views rarely works – Freddie Ljungberg signed after one performance v England, but it was a different world then.

Arsenal scouts would have already been watching St. Juste. And his performance against us would have just made them watch him closer.

Against Arsenal, he played on the right hand side of a back three, and was a consistent attacking threat. But that is the first concern.

Where he plays for Sporting makes me think he would be better as cover for Ben White as an inverted full-back than playing central in a two. Very rarely did we test his defensive capabilities.

Saliba is often left one-on-one to deal with his opposing striker. St. Juste always has a man inside him covering mistakes. It is very different playing in a 2 instead of a 3.

You also have to question why someone with such obvious talent, and plenty of pace and power, is playing in Portugal at 26 and has not yet played for his country – he was last called up to the Netherlands team in 2001 but failed to play. And the answer to that is injury.

St. Juste only joined Sporting in the summer of 2022 and is already out injured for his 4th period this season. Each time he has missed games due to “muscle problems”, according to Transfermarkt.

He has missed 15 games and counting for Sporting this season. Last year he missed 21 games for Mainz in two seperate 2-month long injuries.

Injuries also saw him miss a lot of games for Feyenoord, and before that Heerenveen.

Considering Saliba’s back conerns, and Tomiyasu’s injury troubles over the last 2 seasons, signing someone with such a checkered injury history would be a huge risk.

I think St. Juste certainly fits the profile of player we need. But those injuries are a huge concern.

He will probably be top of a lot of Arsenal’s fans list, but I do not think he will be top of Edu’s.

Marc Guéhi

The former Chelsea academy player has been a consistent performer for the inconsistent Crystal Palace this season.

John Barnes recently said that Guehi is be someone that Arsenal should be looking to sign.

Barnes said “He is English, he is young with good technical ability on the ball and he is quick, so he’s a modern centre-back.”

Guehi certainly ticks all the boxes needed to be an Arsenal centre back. And at 22 he is just completing his 2nd full season in the Premier League. But there are some concerns.

2024 has a European Championships at the end of if. Guehi is one of a clutch of central defenders that has an outisde chance of making Gareth Southgate’s squad – alongside fellow former Chelsea lad Fikayo Tomori.

In 2022, he was capped 3 times for England. Southgate then omitted both Guehi and Tomori from his World Cup squad – opting instead for Eric Dier and Conor Coady.

Guehi was in the squad for the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying matches against Italy and Ukraine in March this year, but warmed the bench in both games. Tomori was left in Italy.

If Guehi has hopes of being in the England squad for the Euros, he needs to be playing regularly. And with William Saliba and Gabriel ahead him, he will not get the game time.

If Tomori is playing week in week out for Milan, whilst Guehi is sitting on our bench, the decision for Southgate is easy.

Palace signed Guehi for £18million in 2021. With 3 years left on his contract, they will not sell cheap. It will be £40m+.

Will Arsenal spend £40million+ on a central defender this summer? I am not sure.

We are already looking to spend £100m+ on a central midfielder (Declan Rice) and a winger. We do not have a bottomless money pot, so will be restriced as to what we spend on a winger and centre back. I would be surprised if we spend northwards of £30m on either of those two positions. And that would rule out Guehi.

I imagine Guehi’s destination will end up being Tottenham.

He would walk into their defence and the step up will be enough to get him on the plan to Germany.

I think Guehi is a fantastic player. I am just not sure he will do that “3rd choice centre back” role.

Josip Sutalo

Josko Gvardiol is the jewel in the Croatian defences crown. Expect him to move for big, big money this summer.

I do not expect us to be in the race for Gvardiol. He has Manchester City written all over him. But his international teammate Josip Sutalo is certainly one to look at.

At 23-years-old, he has become a regular for Zagreb this season. His form has also seen him selected to partner Gvardiol for his country.

Sutalo reminds me of a young John Stones.

Very comfortable with the ball at his feet, he trusts his ability on the ball under pressure. Like Stones this can lead him to occasionally get into trouble whilst playing out.

Whilst he is 6ft 3in, he does not always impose his height on the opposing striker, and can occassionaly look lightweight. He certainly needs to fill out his gangly frame. Again, this is not unlike John Stones in his Everton days.

Like Stones, Sutalo has the skills to also cover at right back,

With his reading of the game and passing, Sutalo has a lot of natural attributes that you would want in a defender. Being 2nd choice would give Arteta and his team the time to work on him.

With a reported £20million release clause, it is a deal Arsenal could make happen very easy.

Sutalo might not be the big name some Arsenal fans call for, but he is in the sort of market we work in. Making stars, not buying them.

Ben White / Takehiro Tomiyasu / Reuell Walters

Before this season begun, the plan would have been for Ben White to and William Saliba to battle it out on the right hand side of the defence.

White would have been expected to play a duel role – cover for Saliba and Takhiro Tomiyasu. We then still had Cedric Soares as additional cover.

No one could have predicted that White would become one of the best right backs in the league and – even when Tomiyasu would regain fitness – would be our first choice right back.

This was not a huge issue in January as it meant that if Saliba got injured, the option would still be there to move White centrally and play Tomiyasu full-back.

What Arsenal could not manage is two out of the three of them getting injured long term. And that is what happened with Saliba and Tomiyasu.

Once Cedric was sent to Fulham, the only other right back option at the club was Reuell Walters; and whilst some fans called for him to start, with White going to right back, Arteta opted for Holding.

Walters only began training with the first team this season, and only turned 18 in the summer. It would have been a big call to put him in.

But next season is different.

Walters would have been training with the senior side for 12 months, and he has made huge improvements since joining the first team training squad.

That then gives us the option to play White at centre back once more, with Tomiyasu coming in at right back. And then if we get to a situation where Tomiyasu and Saliba (or White) are injured once more, Walters can be called upon.

Walters suits the hybrid system Arteta plays – capable of playing right back and more centrally. He has the pace and power needed to not look like a boy playing a mans game, and is also comfortable on the ball.

Perhaps not ready this season, Walters may well be considered next season.

Declan Rice

For a long time, many have said Declan Rice is a central defender playing in midfield.

I expect Arsenal to spend big on him this summer. He will be the man to compete with Thomas Partey and Granit Xhaka in their respective positions.

If we sign Rice, he not only provides an option at 6 and 8, but also at centre back.

He certainly has the physicality and defensive awareness to play there. And he would be another option alongside the White / Tomiyasu / Walters trio.

But it would be a concern if we bought Rice and expected him to be 3rd choice centre back, as well as compete with Xhaka and Partey in the middle.

We would risk having too many players who “can play centre back if needed” but no one whose main job it is to be back up to Saliba.

You can certainlty see Rice or White dropping into centre back if needed. But I think we need to buy a specialist.


My favourite to replace Holding at Arsenal? The Croation John Stones. Josip Sutalo.

Keenos

Could Emile Smith Rowe be the man that is sacrificed for Declan Rice?

Before I start, I do not think “£120million or less with a player thrown in” has much legs to it.

Firstly, I think the full fee for Rice will be less than £100m. Secondly, “player + cash” are thing that rarely happens in football. They are concept for headline writers and those that play far too much Football Manager.

They rarely happen because of the variables.

Normal transfer are hard enough to conclude. Negiotiating with clubs, players, their representatives. Agreeing on fees, wages and more. An exchange of players is even more complicated.

You Player A, Player B, Club Y and Club Z.

Player A needs to want to play for Club Z, Player B needs to want to Club Y. All it takes is for one of these players to not want to move to that club – either wanting to stay, or has an alternative club they want to join – and the deal falls through.

All players must be happy with the financial package on offer on both sides, and then agents, etc also need to agree.

Club Y must want Player B and Club Z must want Player A. If one club does not fancy signing the player, or has a preferred target elsewhere, the deal falls through.

Whilst Club Y might offer Player A as part of the deal, maybe Club Z want to sign Player C from a different club in that position?

And both clubs must agree on the values of both players. And work out who pays what in between.

Finally we have players demanding money to leave.

If you are the “lesser player” and know that your decision could impact your current club getting their first choice player, you might be inclined to demand a payment to leave the club. “Pay me the money or I will turn down the contract, collapsing the deal”.

The advantage of dealing with someone like West Ham is that anyone at Arsenal, already living in the London / Herts / Essex borders, will not need to relocate to a new city or country. That takes out one variable.

So if Edu (and West Ham) were looking to discuss players that might be interested in being added to a deal for Declan Rice, who would they consider?

Emile Smith Rowe

Right, let’s start with a big one. Emile Smith Rowe.

The Hale End graduate had his breakthrough last season, scoring 10 Premier League goals. He has spent the majority of this season in the treatment room.

We discussed recently about how Arsenal need to add quality to the squad. And Smith Rowe is certainly one of those we can look to improve on.

In a comparison of our squad to Manchester City’s, Smith Rowe was an additional player, meaning we could potentially sell him this summer without the need to replace him.

In Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Leoandro Trossard and Gabriel Jesus we have a good clutch of wide options that will start ahead of him. An additional new attacking player will likely join in the summer pushing Smith Rowe further down the pecking order.

There has been talk of Mikel Arteta working to convert Smith Rowe to a more central player, and that is something he certainly has the ability for.

But if Declan Rice signs, that will see us have Rice, Granit Xhaka, Martin Odegaard, Fabio Vieira and Jorginho as options in the “two-8” positions.

Add in Smith Rowe’s injury problems – his career has been plagued by them up to this point – and that he turns 23 in January, I would not be surprised if we try and cash in on him this summer.

So instead of cashing in on him, why not see if West Ham will take him as part of the Declan Rice deal?

Smith Rowe get’s his regular football and gets to remain local, West Ham get a player that improves their team (when fit), and Arsenal knock £20-30million of the Rice fee.

Folarin Balogun

The on-loan hitman has been making waves out in France. But following the theme of “buying better than we have”, Folarin Balogun is simply not better than Gabriel Jesus. And a debate is to be had over whether he is better than Eddie Nketiah.

Balogun has also leaked that he wants to be playing first team football next season. And that is just not something Arsenal can provide.

If we add a striker to the squad next summer, it has to be someone like Victor Osimhen, Dusan Vlahovic or Ivan Toney. All are better than Balogun and will add real depth to the squad.

Depending on sales, I can realistically see Arsenal getting one of these in the summer, then utilising Jesus’s versatility to fill in behind the new man, as well as the out-wide option.

Michail Antonio is now 33 and Gianluca Scamacca has struggled. Balogun would be the Hammers first choice striker.

West Ham is probably Balogun’s level. He will score them 10-15 league goals a season.

You would expect Balogun to fetch £30-40million on the open market. A decent chunk to knock off the Rice fee.

Charlie Patino

Like Balogun, Charlie Patino has had the taste of first team football this season, on loan at Blackpool.

The youngster had an impressive start, but struggled for form alongside his teammates as Blackpool were relegated from the Championship.

Patino is clearly talented, but is also a long way from being ready to play week in, week out for a Champions League side.

Arsenal probably wanted to send him on loan next season to a lower Premier League side. Someone probably like West Ham! But Patino only has 2-years left on his contract and seemingly has no interest in signing a new deal.

The chances are, Arsenal will sell him this summer.

Whilst Patino would not be a like for like replacement for Rice – Declan is clearly levels above – he would provide a useful option in their midfield if Rice leaves. And with regular game time for the Hammers could develop into a top player.

I would be surprised if Patino would raise more than £10m on the open market, so does not really drop the price of Rice down too much. Likewise, West Ham’s recruitment team probably have other names ahead of him to replace Rice.

Your Football Manager player will say “well why don’t we add him as a 2nd player and knock another £10million off”. If player + cash deals were rare, player + player + cash are unicorns.

Kieran Tierney

Keep an on on Kieran Tierney this summer. He could depart.

Whilst he has proven his worth for Arsenal in recent weeks, coming on for Olexsandr Zinchenko early in games to help shore up the defence, his time at Arsenal might be coming to an end.

Tierney has reportedly been frustrated with his lack of game time, and may well look for regular football elsewhere. Newcastle United is the likely destination.

Aaron Cresswell is 33-years-old and his best days are beyond him. Tierney would make a good long-term replacement at West Ham for him.

But this is where player + cash becomes completed.

Would Tierney want to go from a team challenging for the title to a team battling relegation? And if there is another Champions League team (Newcastle) sniffing about, his preference might be to move to them, snubbing West Ham.

I can see us getting £30million for Tierney. I just think it might be from Newcastle rather than West Ham.

Others

This is where we get into the world of make believe a bit, proposing players that we do not want, with it also being unlikely West Ham would want them.

Albert Sambi Lokonga was playing regularly under Patrick Vieira, but has played just twice in Palace’s last 8 games. One start. I think his future is playing for a mid-table team in Germany or France. Expect maybe another loan deal next season with a “option to buy” clause.

For Nuno Tavares, he could be an option to replace Cresswell, but David Moyes will not want to work a defender that is so erratic.

Reiss Nelson and Ainsley Maitland-Niles are excluded due to their contracts expiring.

Eddie Nketiah is basically the same text as Balogun. The only difference being he has not signalled his intent to leave. And his departure would not satisfy Balogun’s desire for first team football.

West Ham could not afford Nicolas Pepe‘s wages, so we would end up having to pay them to take him. Whilst Pablo Mari‘s loan at Monza will likely be made permanent.

Finally the likes of Rob Holding, Cedric Soares, Auston Trusty and Marquinhos would not be valued high enough to have a significant impact on the fee.


If a player + cash deal does happen, Smith Rowe and Balogun are the two to keep an eye on.

Keenos

Arsenal do not need a bigger squad for Champions League football

At just 23, Manchester City have used the least amount of players in the Premier League this season.

At the other end of the table, Nottingham Forest (33), Southampton (32) and Chelsea (32) have used the most.

What this shows is that it is not about the quantity of players in your squad, but the quality.

We have Champions League football next year, and can expect to play 50+ games in 2023/24 – Manchester City will play over 60 this season.

That has lead to many saying “we need to increase how many players we have” and question why we would consider letting the likes of Charlie Patino and Folarin Balogun depart. These thought processes are incorrect.

We compete on 4 fronts next season not by promoting young, raw players to make the squad larger, but by signing players at the top end of the squad.

Manchester City’s squad is small, but filled with quality. That allows Pep Gaurdiola to rest and rotate regularly, ensuring players that are close to the “red zone” do not get over played and pick up an injury.

They rotate between Riyad Mahrez, Phil Foden, Jack Grealish and Bernardo Silva. They have John Stones, Ruben Dias, Aymeric Laporte, Nathen Ake and Manuel Akanji as options at the back.

This means players come in and out of the team, and they suffer very few injuries.

According to Planet Football, up until 16/03/2023, Manchester City players had missed just 49 games through injury this season. Only Brighton (44) had players miss less games.

We were 7th on the table with 79 games missed (the data was taken on the same day as William Saliba’s final game). 9 teams have players that have missed over 100 combined games:

1. Liverpool – 162 games missed through injury
2. Chelsea – 124
3. Newcastle United – 122
4. Nottingham Forest – 120
5. Bournemouth – 116
6. Wolves – 108
7. Manchester United – 106
8. Leeds United – 104
9. Leicester City – 103

We have not suffered due to William Saliba being injured because we do not have enough players. We have 4 central defenders, plus 2 right backs that can play in the middle.

We have suffered because the drop off from Saliba to his cover (Rob Holding) is too great – remember City have close to £300m of central defensive options.

Now I do not expect us to go out and outspend Manchester City. They are state funded which allows them unlimited funds to spend on transfer and, more importantly, wages. But that does not mean we can not improve.

The Patino situation sums up what I am talking about.

Fans call for Patino to stay as we need more players. But personally I would buy Declan Rice.

Rice improves the top end of the team. He would walk into our starting XI in two positions; replacing either Partey or Xhaka.

Patino does not walk into the team. He would not be adequete cover for Xhaka or Partey.

You buy Rice, you then rotate Partey, Xhaka and Declan, which keeps all 3 fitter and playing at a higher level for longer. You keep Patino, he is not of the required level which leads Xhaka and Partey to start every game, over play, and get injured.

“But you can have both” some will cry. Really?

Say we buy Rice, that then gives us: Rice, Xhaka, Partey, Odegaard and Jorginho. With further back up in Mohamed Elneny and Fabio Vieira. Now let’s do a little exercise:

Rodri – 50 games played this season (Rice)
Kevin de Bruyne – 44 (Odegaard)
Ilkay Gundogan – 46 (Partey)
Bernardo Silva – 50 (Xhaka)
Phillips – 17 (Jorginho)

Now considering this season Partey has played more games (36) than any other year since joining, I do not think we can expect him to play 50. So you could probably take 15 off him and give 15 to Jorginho.

So we keep Patino and sign Rice, where does he actually get minutes? Get game time? Because he is not better than any of the 5 Arsenal players mentioned above.

Now yes, some will argue that he could replace Elneny or Vieira in the squad. But realistically, how many minutes will they get next season?

By signing Rice, we would have improved the top end of the squad. And that means we can not give game time to Patino.

I have expanded on this thought process, trying to match up our players to the Manchester City equivalent to further highlight the point:

PlayerGames playedArsenal equivalent
Ederson44Aaron Ramsdale
Stefan Ortega11Matt Turner
Scott Carson0Karl Hein
Kyle Walker32Ben White
Rico Lewis20Takehiro Tomiyasu
John Stones29William Saliba
Manuel Akanji43Gabriel
Rúben Dias39Rob Holding
Aymeric Laporte20Jakub Kiwior
Josh Wilson-Esbrand2Reull Walters
Nathan Aké39Olexsandr Zinchenko
João Cancelo / Sergio Gómez45Kieran Tierney
Rodri50Declan Rice ???
Kevin De Bruyne44Martin Odegaard
Bernardo Silva50Granit Xhaka
İlkay Gündoğan46Thomas Partey
Cole Palmer22Fabio Vieira
Kalvin Phillips17Jorginho
Máximo Perrone2Mohamed Elneny
Riyad Mahrez42Bukayo Saka
Jack Grealish46Gabriel Martinelli
Phil Foden41Leandro Trossard
Erling Haaland47Gabriel Jesus
Julián Álvarez43Eddie Nketiah

As you can see, we already match up fairly well in terms of volume of players. We also have Emile Smith Rowe as additional squad depth.

The difference between us and Manchester City is not quantity of players but quality. And that is why we need to be looking at the top end of the squad, not bringing in youth players to add additional numbers.

Our 2nd choice striker is Eddie Nketiah. Manchester City’s is Julian Alvarez.

Balogun is no better than Nketiah, and whilst integratting him into the squad increases our options from 2 to 3, it does not close the gap from 1 to 2. The drop off from Jesus to Nketiah is larger than from Haaland to Alvarez.

If we are looking at signing a new striker this summer, it has to be someone that is better than Nketiah – and even perhaps better than Jesus – rather than someone who is not as good as either.

And even if you argue that Balogun is better than Nketiah, you would struggle to argue that he is on par with Alvarez. We should perhaps be looking at “better than Jesus” with Gabi becoming 2nd choice striker / wing option, than just looking at “better than Nketiah.”

Declan Rice takes us up a step in quality. Charlie Patino does not.

In defence, whilst some might be tempted to say “promote Reull Walters and use Ben White in the middle”, I would prefer to buy a central defender that is better than Holding, and continue to utilise White on the right.

Walters is just 18. He can go out on loan like Manchester City’s Josh Wilson-Esbrand has this.

Buying a top attacker, a top central midfielder, a top central defender pushing others “down a spot”. It is no longer Xhaka, Partey, Jorginho, Lokonga, Elneny, Patino but Rice, Xhaka, Partey, Jorginho, Lokonga, Elneny, Patino.

You then thin out the squad but selling those at the bottom end (Lokonga, Elneny, Patino).

In summary, this summer is not about increasing the quantity of players in the squad. It is all about increasing the quality.

Expect just 3 or 4 signings, and a lot of fringe and youth outgoings. And do not cry because your hyped up youngster has been sold “without getting a chance”. And certainly do not demand that we sign Rice whilst keep Patino. Pick a side of the fence.

Keenos