Two years left on contract
Declan Rice’s existing deal has 1-year left on it. West Ham have an option to extend for a year.
This £120million malarkey is just them posturing. Like putting your house up for sale for £500,000 when you know you will except £450,000.
This is the last summer they will be able to get big money for Rice. And big money is around the £80m mark. I can not see it going higher than that for a variety of reasons,. Including the length of his contract.
The extension will just be so that they get a feee next summer for him; but that fee will be drastically reduced.
I do not see West Ham keeping Rice for another 2-years, so the contract situation is meaningless. They will sell this summer.
Rice wants to leave
Declan has been on a journey with West Ham, but he now clearly feels it is time to get off that train.
He is not a West Ham boy. Not born and bred within the sound of the Mary le Bow bells.
Rice is now 24, does he really want to spend another year or two in relegation battles? Or finishing mid-table? Probably not.
He has seen his great friend and fellow former Irish international Jack Grealish move from his boyhood club to one of the top sides. Grealish will be adding his 2nd league title in 2 years.
Rice was heavily linked with a move away last year. When that happens, and the player stays, you wonder what deal they have done with the club.
“Stay for one more year and then we will not stand in yoru way next summer” is the discussion that would have been had.
It will be very bad for West Ham if they do not honour the gentleman’s agreement. If they try and price him out of a big move.
Rice will also expect to earn £200k+ a week. That is around 3 times his current salary.
If Rice leads his team to a European trophy at the end of this season, he knows he can leave having taken the Hammers to glory, and probably as far as they will go.
Next season he wants to be playing Champions League football. Competing for major honours. And that is not something he can do at West Ham.
More money, more trophies. Rice will force a move.
Lack of competition
It is strange for a player of Declan Rice’s quality to come on the market and there be such little competition for his signature. Bar minor interest from Chelsea and Liverpool, Arsenal will not face any other competition for him.
Manchester City already have Rodri, with Kalvin Phillips backing him up, whilst Manchester United have Casemiro and Fred. I would be surprised if they go that big for a central midfielder.
With Manchester United, their ownership issues may also massively impact their transfer dealins this summer.
Liverpool are on the look out for a midfielder, having lost out on Jude Bellingham, but I do not think they have the money to make big moves in the transfer market this summer.
They will also be more focusing on someone a little more attacking, like Alexis Mac Allister, rather than a defensive shield.
Likewise, Chelsea have spent so much in the last 12 months, I am not sure they have much left in the pot. They will need to sell to buy this summer. Arsenal should be looking to get a Rice deal done early, before Chelsea get their eggs in a row.
Tottenham can not afford him.
Newcastle could be the final option in England. Their transfer business will be very interesting. With Champions League football, they can now attract a higher quality of player. But can they compete for the best?
When you look abroad, Real Madrid are set to add Bellingham to a squad that already contains Aurélien Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga and Federico Valverde. Whilst Barcelona have huge financial restrictions.
PSG will always come into the equation, but I feel top players do not have much interest in wasting their career in Pairs.
Elsewhere, Italian and German clubs will not spend that sort of money on a single player.
That leaves just Arsenal as the only said that have the money, the squad space, and the desire to land Declan Rice.
Other options
Declan Rice is not the only top defensive midfielder who could be on the market this summer.
Moises Caicedo is one we nearly got over the line in January. He is clearly talented and at just 21, could become even better than Rice.
If West Ham stand firm on the Rice fee, Arsenal will look elsewhere for more reasonably priced alternatives. And Caicedo will be top of that list.
Martin Zubimendi is another who has been on our radar for a while.
He has a fairly similar profile as Rice, and would have been picked out by StatsDNA as an alternative.
Zubimendi has a €60m release. That is around £52m in real money. Less then half the price of a Declan Rice.
Arsenal had a sniff around Madrid’s Camavinga last summer. The Frenchman is currently in contract negotiations with the team.
With the arrival of Bellingham, and with Tchouaméni and Valverde in the squad, Madrid might decide to cash in on Camavinga. Especially if a big bid comes in.
Then you have a rawer option like Romeo Lavia.
Rice is clearly being bought in to replace Thomas Partey. But if a deal for the Englishman can not be made, one option could be to sign Lavia and have him playing back-up to Partey for a season.
Lavia is a raw talent who has performed well in a poor Southampton team. With their relegation nearly nailed on, you have to think Lavia will be on the move this summer.
Reports are Manchester City do have a buy back clause, but this is only from 2024.
In summary, the amount of defensive midfielders that could be available will drive down the price of Rice.
Rice wants to leave.
West Ham are not in a good negotiating position.
Little competition to create an auction.
Other options available.
I think Declan Rice will be ours for around £80million this summer.
Keenos
She Wore A Yellow Ribbon 