Win this weekend and Arsenal title challenge will be back on track

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Morning all.

A later than usual blog today. One of them mornings where it was a struggle to get out of bed!

This weekend could see any remaining hopes of us winning the title wiped out. A weekend where Manchester City could take a huge step forward in being crowned kings of England.

That is enough election / coronation puns for this blog. Maybe.

City host Leeds at 3pm, with the game on TV. It shows that the 3pm TV blackout rule can be disregarded if the authorities choose.

With the announcement by Sky that they will broadcast over 1,000 non-Premier League games from 2024, something surely has to give? And that will probably be the 3pm blackout.

Each League weekend fixture round will see 10 live EFL fixtures shown. I am not sure how they can fit them in, alongside Premier League football, without having them at 3pm.

If they do try and fit them in at all different hours, it will show once again that the broadcasters care little for match going fans. All the furore after the European Super League was only because they were not invited to the party and not because they wanted to speak up for fans.

Will be interesting to see how that social warrior and voice of the normal people Gary Neville responds to more games being moved away from 3pm. Surely he will speak up for match day fans? Talk against his employer?

Anyway, I can not see anything less than a City win today against Leeds. That will put them 4 points ahead with 4 games to go. We then face Newcastle tomorrow.

St James’ Park will not be an easy place to go. They are 3rd in the league for a reason and have only lost to Liverpool at home this season. Expect Newcastle to sit deep, and look to break quickly.

Arsenal will need to be the aggressors as Newcastle do not really need to win. This could lead to plenty of space at the back for Alexander Isak, Joe Willock et al to run into.

Mikel Arteta spoke yesterday, saying he was unsure if either William Saliba or Gabriel would be available for Newcastle.

Saliba is 100% out, and whilst Arteta did not go as far as ruling him out for the season, that is the likely scenario. We blogged back in April that it would be a surprise to see Saliba in an Arsenal shirt this season.

I think if we lose tomorrow, it would not make sense to try and bring Saliba back for those last few games. Let him go on his summer break a month early so that he is ready for next season.

Gabriel went off injured against Chelsea, and faces a fitness test today. If he is out, it will be Rob Holding and Jakub Kiwor at the back. And we need to back the boys.

For those bemoaning our lack of depth at the back, consider this.

Saliba, Gabriel, Kiwor and Holding combined cost us around £75million combined. Ruben Dias cost Manchester City £65million on his own.

Manchester City’s 5 central defensive options (Stones, Laporte, Dias, Ake, Akanji), have cost them a combined £255m. That is £180m more than our 4 options. Even if you throw in Ben White as an option, Manchester City have spent more than twice as much on central defenders.

This summer they will probably spend £100m+ on Josko Gvardiol, whilst we look to spend £15-20million on someone to replace Rob Holding.

And it is not just the transfer fees, but the wages too.

City’s 5 cost a reported £825,000 a week, Arsenal’s 5 (including White), cost £280,000 a week. That is a difference of nearly £30million a year in wages.

It should be no suprise that that City have greater strength in depth than us when you consider what they have paid for players, and what they pay for players, in comparison to Arsenal.

And do not even get me started on the £50m+ they spent on agents fees this season!

The Premier League does risk becoming like France or Germany, with City financially blowing everyone else out of the water, winning every season, and every other club just playing for 2nd.

If we do win tomorrow, it will put our title challenge right back on track.

Victory will keep us a point behind City, with them having a game in hand. We have 3 fairly comfortable games to finish the season (2 at home), whilst City still have tricky trips to Brentford and Brighton.

They also host Chelsea and have a trip to Everton to contend with, mixed in between the Real Madrid double header.

Three of their last 4 games are at home.

If they do win all 4, and today, that will be 94 points and a 14 game winning run, and 49 points from a possibile 51 in the last 17 games of the season. Incredible form and we can have no complaints finishing 2nd to that.

Enjoy the King’s Coronation weekend.

Keenos

Holding will not be an easy man for Arsenal to replace

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Our drop off at the back end of this season has told us nothing that we did not know. We still have areas of our squad where we need more depth.

If you had have asked me before the start of the season where we still needed to strengthen, I would have answered “centre back, central midfield and in attack”. And as the season has progressed, our lack of strength in depth in these areas has been punished.

This is not a criticism of the club. We are not Manchester City who can go out and spend £200m on 4 central defenders. Or in a single summer buy both the World Cup winning starting striker and the best striker in the world.

We do not have those finances. Our transfer policy is consistent improvement year on year.

Last summer saw us add a striker (Jesus), midfield creativity (Vieira) and a left back (Zinchenko) , as well as a back-up striker. All of these were more crucial than a central defender, central midfielder and striker.

We then added Jorginho, Leandro Trossard and Jakub Kiwor in January.

In January, getting in cover for Gabriel was more important than signing someone to cover William Saliba.

To cover Saliba, we had Ben White, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Rob Holding. We had no one who was naturally left footed, who could play left side of the defence. And we signed Kiwor.

I am sure the plan would have have been to move Ben White into the centre if Saliba picked up an injury. Tomiyasu then would have played right back.

But injuries to both Saliba and Tomiyasu has meant Rob Holding has been required to step up and play.

Holding is not a bad player. He has done a solid job for us. But if we want to be title challengers in the long term, he needs to be improved on.

Manchester City have John Stones, Ruben Dias, Aymeric Laporte, Nathan Ake and Manuel Akanji as their centre back options. All 5 would start ahead of Rob Holding.

Edu and his team will address this area in the summer, and I am sure that right hand side defensive reinforcements will come in.

However, a 2nd choice right sided central defender will be a harder transfer than finding a new midfielder.

We can all list the new midfielders that might come in – the list starts with Declan Rice, goes onto Moises Caicedo and onto Andre Onana. There ar emany other options too.

Whoever comes in will be expected to compete with both Granit Xhaka and Thomas Partey for a starting place. Two opportunities to start.

Considering both of their age, and Partey’s injury record, the new signing will see plenty of game time. That is why we can go for someone like Rice, without thinking he is being signed as a back up. The defence problem is not as easy to resolve.

The best teams tend to play with a settled central defensive partnership. And in Saliba and Gabriel we had one of the best in the league.

Any new centre back will be a back up player. Like Kiwor is. They will only come in for Saliba if there is injury or suspension.

That means whoever comes in must be happy sitting on the bench. That rules out a lot of players (unlike Manchester City, we can not pay someone £200k a week to sit on our bench, softening the blow of not playing).

And not only does the new man have to be better than Holding, he also has to be better than Ben White.

The option will still be there next season to play White at centre back and Tomiyasu at right back.

And with the development of 18-year-old Reuell Walters, who has been training with the first team for almost the entirety of this season, that option is more appealing.

I am sure in 12 months time, if we were in the same position squad wise as now, we probably would have seen Walters step into right back and White move inside. But this season, with the pressure we were under at the top of the league, that would have been a huge call for Mikel Arteta.

Playing the experienced Holding and leaving White at right back just made more sense then bringing in an experienced teenager and moving White into the centre. I am also not a fan of making two changes in the defence due to one injury.

So I think we will go out and buy another centre back. I then expect Kieran Tierney to leave and Tomiyasu to be first choice cover at right and left back. Walters and Lino Sousa wil lalso be options at full back.

I would not be surprised if the club try and find “another Ben White” – someone that will can play both centre back and full back. That will then give us further cover for White / Tomiyasu in the way Ake does a job at left back for Manchester City.

A new central defender must therefore be:

  • Better than Holding, but happy to be 2nd choice
  • Pacey, so we do not have to defend deeper
  • Comfortable on the ball
  • Less than £30million
  • Provide an option at right back

Holding might seem like an easy player to replace. There are plenty out there who are better. But was will not be easy is finding someone who fits our scouting probile. And with that, I am now off to see who I can find!

Keenos

Arsenal need to be in a position to take advantage of any Man City slip up

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Morning all.

After a tough April, Arsenal have returned to form in May with a bang. Not that we played poorly in April, we just did not pick up the wins.

It was an odd month.

We deserved the victory against Liverpool, only to concede a 87th minute equaliser.

Against West Ham, we looked comfortable. Too comfortable. Took the foot off their throat and a silly mistake by Thomas Partey saw them get back into the game. Bukayo Saka then had a sliding doors moment when he spurned the opportunity to make it 3-1.

As for Southampton, we just got hit cold, again, and did well to battle back to win.

In all of these games, we were good enough to win. But individual errors at the back gifted opponents goals. Frustrating.

The victory against Chelsea was not just about the 3 points, but also the manner in how we won them.

For the first time ever, I sat upper teir at the Emirates and it was incredible to watch our passing shape. It was sharp, with purpose and confidence.

That victory against Chelsea showed that we were not simply on a good run, we are a really good team. And even if we finish 2nd, we can be proud of the steps we have taken forward.

Finishing 2nd to a Manchester City side who have spent so much building their squad over the last decade, so much on salaries, and have the Premier League’s single season record goal scorer is an achievement. Even if it does not come with a trophy.

We saw Mikel Arteta ring in a couple of changes on Tuesday. The first was Jorginho for Thomas Partey.

We spoke last week about whether Arsenal had a Partey problem. He did not look as fit and sharp as he did earlier in the season; and that was leading to mistakes.

Jorginho came in for him and played exceptional. It will be interesting to see how the Brazilian-Italian fits into Arteta’s plans next season if we sign Declan Rice (other top defensive midfielders are available).

My gut is that we will not go for a 2nd central midfielder in the summer. That will leave us with Partey, Granit Xhaka, Rice and Jorginho for those two midfield positions.

Saying that, speculation came out last week that we might be looking to cash in on Xhaka. That would surprise me.

Jakub Kiwor came in for Rob Holding at the back and looked composed and solid.

People seemed to write Kiwor off after 10 minutes of football aganst Liverpool and an uncomfortable game against Sporting in the Europa League. These days, fans seem to expect players to hit the ground running straight away.

Kiwor is a young man, playing in a new country in a new league. He is clearly talented, but was bought for next season.

The 6 months he has spent in England prior to next season will benefit him greatly. He looks to have already bulked up and is quick, commanding and good on the ball. He will be a great option for when we rest Gabriel.

He will probably start again Sunday with William Saliba out and Gabriel doubtful. Newcastle will certainly be a bigger challenge than Chelsea.

So we keep moving. City won last night which took them back to the top of the table. We have 4 games to go, they have 5.

I would be surprised if we win the title, I have maintained that position throughout. But we need to ensure we are there to take advantage if City do drop points.

After this weekeend, City have some tricky fixtures, with 3 of their last 4 away. They play twice a week and have games interwined with those big Champions League games.

They certainly have the squad to deal with this level of games (football is easy when you have four £50m CBs!), but it is not over yet.

UTA.

Keenos