Finding logic in Nketiah’s new deal

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I usually try and find logic behind every signing, every contract renewal. I attempt to open my mind and see what the clubs management are doing in their decision making.

For example, it is clear and obvious why Mohamed Elneny has signed a one year extension.

He has proven himself time and again to be a reliable, if unexceptional, midfield. Elneny is adequate cover for Thomas Partey.

We have other areas of the pitch which need drastic improvement and investment. Elneny staying for another year allows us to focus on those areas.

In 12 months time, we might be looking to invest in a replacement for Partey rather than an understudy, if his injury issues continue.

It makes a lot of sense to keep Elneny, continue developing Albert Sambi Lokonga, and make a decision on that position next summer.

The pending Eddie Nketiah contractual renewal is not as easy to justify. But I have given it a go.

Eddie’s Improvement

With us short on strikers and Alexandre Lacazette ill and out of form, Eddie was given the opportunity at Arsenal that he has waited his entire short career for. And he stepped up.

In those final 8 games of the season, he scored 5 goals (compared to Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored 4 in last 12).

Every since he was young, he has always been a deadly goal scorer. But it was his all round play that really impressed me.

He was no longer the weak, gangly kid that only came to life when their was a sniff of a goal. He has filled out and come in leaps of bounds.

His hold up play impressed me as much as his goals to games.

We need a striker that is able to hold the ball up, bring others into play. As well as run the channels and press. Eddie has shown all of this in that short stint.

Whether this marked improvement is enough to see him be our 2nd choice striker is exactly the reason why many are questioning the contract renewal.

Europa League Consequence

Is the contract renewal a consequence of our failure to make Champions League football?

We all probably expected the club to make 2 forward signings this summer. But with no Champions League football, can we get away with just one and promoting Eddie?

The premier forward signing then starts in the league, and Eddie starts in Europe and the cups. Workload shared.

We struggled for so long trying to accommodate Aubameyang and Lacazette with no Champions League football, often to the detriment of both.

Does it just make more sense to have a clear number 1 and number 2 driver (F1 reference) rather than two fighting it out for the top spot?

But is Eddie good enough to come in for 20-30 games if whoever else we sign picks up a long-term injury?

Gabriel Jesus Incoming

It is becoming fairly clear and obvious that Gabriel Jesus will be an Arsenal player next season.

Fed up with being an “in and out” player at Manchester City, not getting the consistency of starts, he desires a move to fulfil his potential.

I would be very surprised if we signed him only to also buy another similar level striker (Alexander Isak, Dominc Calvert-Lewin, etc) and told him to fight it out. I think he would not join.

That then leaves us looking at an understudy for Jesus rather than competition.

So the level below those mentioned above is the likes of Ivan Toney and Ollie Watkins. But are these that much better than Nketiah to justify a £40million transfer fee?

Both Toney and Watkins are better than Nketiah, but both also more than 3 years older.

I would expect if Nketiah was playing for Brentford or Aston Villa, playing week in week out, he would quickly reach their level and surpass how many goals they score.

So instead of splashing out a big transfer fee on an average English striker, it makes sense to give more opportunities to the lad we have who is at a similar level

And Other Targets

Like with Elneny, keeping Nketiah frees up the cash to sign other targets.

People have mentioned the £100,000 salary, but if we let him leave and signed Watkins or Toney they would also want a similar salary. The only difference is keeping Nketiah will save us £40million.

This £40million could be spent on someone like Cody Gakpo who has the raw talent to be better than them all.

Gakpo is a left winger for PSV Eindhoven. He can play in all 3 positions behind the striker and there is a feeling with his physical attributes he could play up top.

Keeping Nketiah potentially opens the door for his signing.

Gakpo will be competition for Gabriel Martinelli on the left hand side and cover for Bukayo Saka on right hand side. Alongside Emile Smith Rowe, we would then have 4 decent wide options (Nicolas Pepe will leave).

Up top, we would have Jesus and Nketiah. But also Martinelli and Gakpo.

If you take the forwards as a group: Jesus, Nketiah, Saka, Gabriel, Gakpo, Smith Rowe. 6 players for 3 positions.

There has also been a lot of talk about Adam Hložek in recent weeks.

The Czech striker looks a star in the making. But is just 19-years-old.

Can I see a situation where we sign him (for a reported £19m) to be long term competition for Jesus? Yes. But in the short term we need to keep Nktieah around to bridge that gap, allowing us to develop Hložek over the next 12 months or more rather than throw him into the deep end.

In summary, with Europa League rather than Champions League football, one top striker is all that is on the shopping list this summer.

We need to spend sensibly and £40million on a back up striker is not prudent.

There is also a lack of decent options out there. The likes of Calvert-Lewin and Isak are too expensive (if we sign Jesus). Whilst Toney and Watkins are no better than Nketiah.

Final thought: Do many clubs across Europe have two top strikers any more? Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea and Tottenham all rely on just one. And then invest heavier into wide forwards that fill in down the middle when required.

Keenos

5 key reasons Arsenal finished 5th

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No Bouncebackability

This season our defeats came in clusters.

We lost the first 3 games of the season, but then went on an 8 game unbeaten run.

From game week 12 to 15 we lost 3 out of 4 games and game week 27 to 31 lost 4 out of 5.

Finally in those closing stages of the season we suffered back to back defeats on game week 36 and 37.

The loss to Manchester City in January was the only defeat they did not occur amongst a cluster of others.

It is a concern that one defeat has quickly led to 2 or 3 more in a short space of time.

For us to progress from 5th place to top 3 challengers next season, we need to bounce back better from defeats.

No January Signings

We were right in letting Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang leave in January. But the lack of any reinforcements did cost us 4th place.

There is an argument that 5th was our target. That when the transfer window shut we were 6th. So finishing 5th means that the risk to not sign anyone in January paid off.

Even if this narrative is true, to finish just 2 points behind 4th having made no signings is frustrating.

There is a danger in January signings.

You often overpay on a player you do not really want, which in turn leads to less money available in the summer to buy players you do want.

Or you end up loaning someone in that is not getting much game time elsewhere. But by the time they get up to full fitness the season is over.

Newcastle United and Tottenham aside, there was not much business done in January. But that does not mean the players were not out there.

In January I wrote a blog about 5 players we should be looking target.

Of those 5 players, 3 got a January move.

Tottenham New Signings

One of those 5 players mentioned in the January blog was Dejan Kulusevski.

The Swedish international came onto my radar as a player that can play across the 3 behind a striker.

Clearly talented, he was struggling in Italy and looking for a move out.

Tottenham took the plunge and signed him on loan, with options to make that move permanent both this summer and next.

He scored 5 goals and bagged himself 8 assists in 18 Premier League appearances.

Now it is too easy to say “Kulusevski made the difference”, but he clearly did.

Whilst Bukayo Saka, Smile Smith Rowe and Gabriel Martinelli ran out of steam, Kulusevski freshened up the Tottenham attack and gave them another option beyond the Kane / Son axis.

Spurs also signed Rodrigo Bentancur who quickly became a key man in the middle of the park for them.

During the closing stages of the season, Thomas Partey broke down injured. Could Bentancur have made a difference? Taking a bit of pressure off the Ghanian in certain games?

I was happy us not spending on players that we were not 100% on, but I do feel we missed a trick with Kulusevski.

Arteta Did Not Trust His Squad

Towards the end of the season, we saw Mohamed Elneny and Eddie Nketiah come in from the cold to put in game winning performances.

This raised the question as to whether Arteta trusted his squad players enough?

Partey started 17 league games out of 18 from November through to April.

The only game he missed was due to participation in the African Cup of Nations where he started all 3 games for Ghana.

In the 20 games for club and country during that period, he played 1759 out of a possible 1800 minutes.

Why did Arteta not trust in Elneny to come in sooner?

Had we started Elneny against the likes of Norwich City, Brentford and Leicester City, Partey might not have broken down with an injury caused by muscle fatigue.

Likewise, when Kieran Tierney picked up his injury, Arteta shuffled the pack putting Granit Xhaka at left back rather than trust in his back-up full back Nuno Tavares.

And when Alexandre Lacazette was clearly off the pace, Arteta stuck with him rather than put in Nketiah.

It took Lacazette to be struck down by Coronavirus in April for Eddie to get a start in the Premier League.

Arteta needs to begin trusting his squad players a lot more.

We Just Weren’t Ready

Youngest team in the league with the youngest manager.

When it came down to the pressure games, we failed to step up.

I will not go as far as to see we bottled it, as that would unfairly stigmatise a group of young players. But we did crumble under the pressure of being favourites.

Three times we crumbled.

The first was in that double header against Everton and Manchester United when the pressure was on to win two big away games.

Secondly in that run against Crystal Palace, Brighton and Southampton. And then again in the double header against Spurs and Newcastle.

When the pressure was off and it felt like we were out of the running, we played with freedom.

After the Everton defeat in December, top 4 looked a distance away. We then won 9 out of 11 games.

Back in pole position for top 4, we proceeded to lose 3 of our next 4 games.

With the pressure off again, we beat Chelsea and Manchester United, as well as West Ham away.

That 4 game winning run put it in our hands with 3 games to go. And we finished 5th.

In the Newcastle game we looked like a deer in headlights. Granit Xhaka was right in his post-match comments.

Physically we were also not ready as the likes of Saka and Martinelli ran out of steam.

People will point to “no European football” and question why they looked knackered I the closing stages of the season.

Both are still just 20-years-old and played more minutes than Phil Foden across all competitions. They also played the same minutes as Son Heung-Min.

These players have not yet obtained “old man fitness” that you get from playing 50+ games a season over an extended period of time. They still have young, raw bodies.

By the end of the season, our talented youngsters looked physically and mentally drained.

Some might say “but Chelsea made top 4 with a young squad” but that is re-writing history.

In 2019/20, Frank Lampard’s team had the 4th youngest squad in the league, at an average age of 25.3 years. This season Arsenal’s was 24.4 years.

Now one year might seem insignificant. But that one year is an extra season of football. An extra year of physical and mental strength.

In 12 months time, the likes of Bukayo Saka, Martinelli, Martin Odergaard, Aaron Ramsdale, Ben white and Gabriel will be a year older. A year stronger. A year wiser. I would not expect them to fall away physically and mentality like they did this.

A year is a long time in football. We were just not ready this year.

The good news is that if I can establish what went wrong this season, the senior leadership team at Arsenal can.

We have reduced ourselves to a paper thin squad. This summer we now need to get in similar quality to last and rebuild.

By doing that, it will give Arteta more options and enable him to rest and rotate. Keeping everyone that little bit more fresh.

I am looking forward to the 2022/23 season already.

Keenos

2021/22 – “A season of highs and lows”

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And that is the end of the 2021/22 season.

There are two sensible schools of thought on how the season went.

The first is from those who recognise that 5th was our main target of the season; and we finished 5th.

The second is those that saw us move into pole position for top 4 and then bottled it towards the end of the season.

There is a 3rd school of thought but that is held be Arsenal incels and so insignificant that we will not bother discussing it.

The reality is one and two are correct.

5th was our target, we did finish 5th, but we should have finished 4th.

We started off the season in horrendous form – losing out first 3 games of the season.

A Covid hit squad and two tough games against the two favourites of the season saw us sitting bottom of the table 3 games in.

But we rebuilt, going on an 8 game unbeaten run which dragged us up to 5th.

This was a season of peaks and troughs. We seemed to go on long winning (or unbeaten) runs and then would lose games in clusters.

That first cluster was the first 3 games of the season. The second came after our 8 game unbeaten run. We would then lose 3 of the next 4.

It was the manner of the defeats to Everton and Manchester United that hurt so much.

Neither team were the sides of yesteryear and in both games we took the lead and dominated. Only to come away with nothing.

Missed chances and sloppy goals. If anything cost us top 4, it was those back to back defeats.

The defeat to Everton in early December left us 7th. Champions League dreams extinguished.

9 victories in the next 11 games followed – the only defeat at home to Manchester City. A victory for the referee that game.

That form saw us break into the top 4 for the first time this season and, with 12 games to go, it was in our hands!

Then the 3rd cluster of defeats – triggered for the 2nd time of the season by a defeat to Liverpool.

4 defeats in 5 games saw us tumble from 4th to 6th.

Losses to Crystal Palace, Southampton and Brighton alongside injuries to Kieran Tierney and Thomas Partey had us questioning whether we would even make Europa League.

Then an away win against Chelsea – easily our best away day in years – was followed up by another 3 solid wins.

3 games to go, 4 points ahead of Spurs in 5th. On paper we should have finished top 4. But that trip to Newcastle was always going to be a potential banana skin.

And so it proved to be just that.

Had we beaten Spurs, we would have guaranteed ourselves top 4 with 2 games to go.

Instead they took advantage of some poor refereeing and closed the gap to 1 point. We then went and lost to Newcastle, a defeat which all but handed 4th place to Tottenham.

When we dissect how we lost 4th, the 4 clusters of defeats is something that needs to be looked at.

We can not expect to be challengers if 1 defeat brings another 2 or 3. We need better bouncebackability.

A key factor in us finishing 4th was Tottenham’s results against 1st and 2nd in the league.

Spurs were unbeaten against Manchester City and Liverpool – beaten the former twice and drawing both games against the latter.

That is 8 points taken from games against the league title challengers. We took 0.

Both Liverpool and Manchester City play into Tottenham’s long ball tactics.

High lines exposed them to those high balls, a Harry Kane flick on and Son running in behind.

Yes, we were probably masters of our own downfall, but a side taking 8 points from the champions and runners up has probably never happened before. And will probably never happen again.

Tottenham also signed two players in January that made in impact. Meanwhile we took the risk and let a lot of players leave without getting in replacements.

Some would argue that the risk did not pay off as we missed out on top 4. But if the target was 5th, and that target was still the same in January, then surely the risk paid off?

Would we have finished 4th if we had kept Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang? I actually think probably not.

We were 7th following his last ever game. Following his exclusion (and eventual sale) we went on our best run of the season gaining 28 out of 33 points.

The honeymoon period is also clearly over for the Gabonese striker at Barcelona – he has just 4 goals in his last 12 games.

Had we signed Dusan Vlahovic in January, I think we would have finished 3rd. But once that deal did not materialise, we were correct in not signing someone else.

Big money spent on a striker that we did not really want would be big money we would be unable to spend this summer. And signing a Dominc Calvert-Lewis or Alexander Isak in January might not have got us that 4th placed finished.

So in summary, I am happy with our 2021/22 season.

We now need a repeat of last summers transfer window – buy 3 players that come into our first team and a further 2 or 3 that improve the squad.

Let us know your thoughts on the season in the comments.

Thanks for reading this year.

Keenos