Stop with the Nketiah slander

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Nketiah just can’t cut it. On a high wage, does not produce and is ineffective. Any fee for Nketiah should be considered a bonus. We just need to get rid.

I have seen versions of the above countless times since we rejected Marseille’s bid for Eddie Nketiah. The slander and criticism of the Hale End graduate from Arsenal fans is ridiculous.

Eddie is not a poor player.

Just because he is not good enough to be a regular starter for The Arsenal (a title challenging team) does not mean is no good. He would do a fantastic job playing week in, week out for a mid-table Premier League team.

There are levels to football, and Eddie would score 15+ league goals for someone like Crystal Palace, Bournemouth or Wolverhampton Wanderers.

I also do not buy into those that say he is not good enough for Arsenal.

Yes, he is not good enough to start regular, but for me he is the best 3rd choice striker in the Premier League.

Go and do your own research and tell me who Manchester City, Liverpool, Aston Villa, Tottenham, Chelsea, Manchester United and Newcastle have as their 3rd choice striker – Nketiah will be better than them all.

The issue for Nketiah at Arsenal isn’t that he is not good enough to be our 3rd choice striker, but that we do not need an out and out 3rd choice striker.

We play one up top. We therefore only need two strikers. Do not believe me? Go and look at the make up of Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City over the last decade – Haaland and Alvarez, Aguero and Jesus.

There were a few years Pep where would Kelechi Iheanacho as a 3rd choice, but the Nigerian was clearly not good enough to start regularly fo City. And Nketiah is a similar level to the now Sevilla striker.

Were Eddie to leave, we would not go straight out into the market to buy a replacement, because we still would not need a 3rd choice striker.

One option will be to buy a top winger, and then Gabriel Martinelli / Leandro Trossard become the 3rd choice striker as a second job behind their primary role on the wing.

Alternatively, we go out and buy a striker who is better than Jesus, and the Brazilian then becomes a regular option on the wing whilst also on occasion being a striker.

Which scenario, we end up with the 3rd choice striker also being an option on the left and right wing. Nketiah is not better than Jesus, nor does he have the versatility to play outside. But again, just because he is not good enough for Arsenal, it does not mean he is not good enough.

I see a lot of talk about Eddie’s wage – reported to be £100k a week. Those that think this is a “high wage” need to bring their head in 2024. That is what squad players at title challenging clubs get these days. And also what a starting striker can expect to get playing for any mid-lower table side in the Premier League.

When we turned down the bid from Marsielle, there was uproar. We should just cash in was said by many. But is £17m really the right fee for someone of Nketiah’s ability? Or would we be underselling?

Dominic Solanke has just signed for Tottenham for £65m. He is 2 years Eddie’s senior and has one good season under his belt.

Yes, last season Solanke was terrific scoring 19 Premier League goals. But in his 4 Premier League seasons prior to 2023/24, Solanke had scored just 10 goals in 96 Premier League appearances. That is 1 goal every 9.6 games.

As a comparison, Eddie has 19 career Premier League goals in his 116 appearances for Arsenal. That is 1 in 6.

I am not saying that Nketiah is better than Solanke, nor am I saying we should expect £65m for Eddie. But Solanke has had one good season in the Premier League in his career and turns 27 soon. Eddie at 25 has done more in the top flight of English football than Solanke did at the same age.

Armando Broja is also off to Ipswich on loan, with an obligation to buy for £30m if they stay up. Broja is 23-years-old and has scored a grand total of 2 Premier League goals in 26 games.

If Broja is going for £30m, then Nketiah is worth at least that!

Many of those complaining we did not sell Nketiah for £17m also complain we undersell players, and would have complained had we sold Eddie for just £17m. Had Eddie already left for Marseille, they would be up in arms over that Broja price this morning!

Fans act like Eddie is worthless, that he is not good enough to be 3rd choice for The Arsenal. Not good enough to start for a mid-table Premier League team. Not good worth £30m. They could not be so wrong.

Meanwhile, they still cheer for Emile Smith Rowe. A player that has done less for us than Eddie. A player who has been unable to stay fit for 2 seasons.

They still cry for ESR, calling it the biggest mistake in Arsenal’s history. Claiming we undersold him at £25m (he went for the same as Ollie Skipp who is the same level!). They hype up Smith Rowe and what he did for Arsenal, whilst playing down Nketiah’s ability and what he did.

The reality is neither are good enough for Arsenal. But both will be solid signings for mid-table Premier League sides. And we should be looking to clear in excess of £50m in selling them this summer.

Eddie has not moaned about lack of playing time. He has not thrown his toys out the pram. Not demanded to leave. He has applied himself well in training throughout his career, but unfortunately for him his ceiling is our 3rd choice striker. That does not make him a bad player.

I will wish Nketiah all the luck when he departs. And I bet in 2-years when he scores 15+ goals for Nottingham Forest or Crystal Palace, and moves to West Ham for £45m, those moaning now will be moaning again that we should have stuck with Eddie Nketiah!

Keenos

Arsenal pair set for imminent departure

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Last night saw the PFA Player of the Year awards. Long time readers of the blog will know I do not care much for individual honours such as these or the Ballon d’Or.

For those interested, Phil Foden won POTY for its Cole Palmer name Young Player of the Year.

David Raya, Willliam Saliba, Gabriel, Martin Odegaard and Declan Rice all made the Team of the Year. But ultimately it means nothing if you end the season without a trophy.

Eddie Nketiah was linked to Nottingham Forest as Arsenal rejected a £25m offer.

As with the Marseille deal, this lead to some complain that we should just accept the deal. But in an era that is seeing Armando Broja leave for £30m, I think Arsenal are right to stand by their valuation.

Marseille’s offer was £17m upfront with £6m of add-ons. Nottingham Forests was £20m upfront with £5m add-ons.

I do laugh when the same fans that criticise the club for underselling players and then calling for the club to undersell a player.

With Dominic “one good season” Solanke going for £65m, we need to maximise or transfer fee. Put £30m upfront on the table and the deal will be done.

Eddie clearly does not not expect to be at the club next season. He has relinquished his club box, which was being cleared out earlier this week.

If Nketiah departs, we will need a new forward. But that does not mean we need a new striker.

We play one up top, so only really need to strikers. In Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus we have that.

Across the front three though we have 5 men for 3 positions (without Nketiah or Reiss Nelson). That is one short.

So either we sign a striker, and Jesus becomes a more regular option on the wing, or we buy a new winger and Jesus’s primary job continues to be Kai Havertz competition and cover.

As predicted earlier this summer, Aaron Ramsdale is likely to exit us on loan, with Wolves making an offer.

Any deal will see the buying club pay 100% of his wages and a loan fee of around £4m. Those numbers will ensure Ramsdale does not cost us a penny this season.

With Arsenal holding out for £40m for England’s number two, the loan should not be surprising. Most teams do not have that sort of money to spend on a keeper, especially one who has not played for a year.

Spending the next season on loan should see his value increase again and we should expect to sell in 12 months for £30m+. That will see us bank a nice chick if PSR book value profit.

Enjoy your Wednesday.

Keenos

Where has all the oil money gone?

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A year ago, the Saudi Pro League were disrupting the transfer market, with clubs spending nearly £1bn combined. Only the Premier League clubs had a larger combined spend for 2023/24.

This year, Saudi clubs have spent just £15om between them. That is less than Chelsea have spent alone – and pretty much the same as what the likes of Aston Villa, Brighton and Manchester United have spent this summer.

So what is happening out their in the Middle East?

Players do not want to go

Players talk. And perhaps more importantly, players wives and girlfriends talk.

Aymeric Laporte spoke last year about how players were “dissatisfied”. The Spanish defender went on to raise issues from working conditions, quality of life and broken promises.

Many WAGs dreamed of a Dubai style living experience, but have quickly realised that Saudi Arabia living is very different to that in the Emirate city, with many players deciding to live in the more liberal Bahrain. As Laporte, put it, “you spend a lot of time in the car” due to having to commute across borders and because of traffic.

The conditions have already seen the exodus of players – most notably Jordan Henderson how only last half a season. Joining the ex-England captain in the departure lounge are the likes of Ivan Rakitic, Allan Saint-Maximin, David Ospina, Matheus Pereira and Andre Gray.

12-months ago, many players would have been saying to their agents “I will have a bit of that. See what you can do”. This summer and it appears players are less willing to manufacture of a move for themselves.

Players waiting for European offers

There has been a bit of head scratching around Ivan Toney, who looks destined to move to Saudi Arabia in the next 10 days. “I am surprised a top English team have not taken a punt” seems to be the consensus.

I am sure every Premier League club, including Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool, would have have had a look at Toney and had a discussion with his representatives. they have all been put off by what they have either seen or head.

It might be due to Toney’s wage demands (reported to be £250k a week), concerns about his attitude, or just his poor form since returning from his transfer ban. With doors closing around England, and none opening further afield in Europe, the only opportunity left on the table was Saudi Arabia.

I am fairly positive that had an English team come in for Toney, he would have preferred to remain in England. A move to Saudi Arabia was probably his last resort.

And you have to wonder how many other players are currently sitting their thinking “yes, I will go to Saudi Arabia, but I would prefer to stay in Europe if that is possible”.

The likes of Raheem Sterling, Ben Chillwell, Reiss Nelson, Romelu Lukaku and Jadon Sancho might all decide last minute to go to Saudi Arabia for the year if other deals fail to materilise.

Saudi Arabia will end up becoming a players “second choice”. The UEL of football.

Investors losing interest

The Saudi Pro League was always an exercise in sportswashing.

Alongside “Riyadh season”, which has taken boxing, F1, snooker, WWE, MMA, snooker and various European “super cups” to the capital, the Pro-League was all about buying a fan base to try and take the narrative on Saudi Arabia away from their horrendous human rights record.

Football has failed to take off in Saudi Arabia, with the 18 clubs averaging just 8,158 across the 2023/24 season. Al-Ahli SFC had the highest average with 23,370. But with the King Abdullah Sports City stadium holding in excess of 60,000, the 2/3s empty stadium was an embarrassment.

There was also a lack of interest in the Saudi Pro League outside of the country. With hardly anyone tuning in and TV companies reluctant to pay for the rights.

Just 5,000 viewers tuned into watch the top of the table clash between Al-Hilal and Al-Ittihad on Canel+. That is less than what watched FC Rouen against Sochaux-Montbéliard in the Championnat National (2rd tier of French football) on the same channel.

Despite signing La Liga legends Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema, the Spanish TV deal was worth just €60,000, whilst DAZN paid just $500k for the rights to screen games in the UK, Germany and Austria for 2023/24.

The rulers of Saudi Arabia do not like being embarrassed, and the Saudi Pro League is an embarrassment.

Low attendances and low TV viewing figures. It is clear that no one cares about the Saudi Pro League. And if no one cares it cares for the league, than it is no longer a useful tool in Saudi Arabia’s sportswashing campaign.

History repeating itself

The Saudi Pro League is facing the same issues as the Chinese Super League in the 2010s and the MLS in the 70s.

You simply can not start a league, splash loads of cash on ageing stars, and buy your way into popularity. Football, with its tribalism’s, does not work like that. A league can not simply become an overnight success just because they but some over-the-hill legends.

Add in the living and working conditions, and broken promises, the Saudi Pro League is just history repeating itself.

The downfall of the Chinese Super League was caused by the oversaturation of ageing foreign stars, who found themselves living in poor conditions with unpaid wages mounting up. Newly formed teams also suffered from “lack of competitive spirit“. It is a mirror image as to what has happened in Saudi Arabia in the past 12 months.

Summary

I expect some players to make the move late in the transfer window to the Saudi Pro League. But those players are only going to the Middle East because no other options materialised.

They will likely move across their on short term deals, to play a bit of football and get huge wages, before looking to engineer a way back into European football in 12 months

For many players, Saudi Arabia is not the destination of choice. It is a last resort. And that is why Saudi clubs have spent less combined then some Premier League teams!

Keenos