Arsenal playing long game in Ivan Toney transfer saga

4 Replies

Over the last 12 months I have a love / hate relationship with Ivan Toney.

At the moment, I am in the “hate it” stage of our relationship. At 28-years-old, with his reported attitude problems and coming off a ban, I would not want us to be paying the £60m+ Brentford were demanding on him.

But then I also think of Ian Wright.

Wrighty joined The Arsenal in the early 90s at 28-year-old. He arrived with his own historical baggage and reports of attitude problems. He would go on to break our long-standing goalscoring record.

Ivan Toney was a notable absentee in the opening weekend of Premier League fixtures. He is also yet to appear for Brentford in pre-season having returned late having been with England over the summer. Reports are he was left out as he has made it clear to Thomas Frank that he wants to leave this summer.

There is now a stalemate between Brentford, Toney and any potential suitors.

Brentford want a huge transfer fee for a 28-year-old who has played little football in 12-months. Meanwhile Toney wants to leave and only has one-year left on his contract. We are now in a game of poker.

As we close in on transfer deadline day, the asking price for Toney will rapidily decrease. what was £60m+ is now reportedly only £40m. I would not be surprised if come the end of August, we are talking about a fee in the region of £30m. And that is a price I would love for Toney.

It is no secret that we are in the market for a new forward. And it is also no secret that Mikel Arteta is happy with Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus.

A new incoming striker would have to either be better than the pair, or be cheap enough that they could be competition and cover for Havertz, with Jesus then becoming competition and cover for the wingers. At £30m, Toney would be a good competition and cover for Havertz.

Toney’s acquisition would then see Jesus become the competition for Gabriel Martinelli on the left wing and cover for Bukayo Saka on the right that many have been crying out for. The Brazilian is two players in one, and he would continue to be an option upfront.

Role forward a year, and we may then decide to cash in on Jesus and sign a top quality left winger who is an improvement on Martinelli, with Gabi Martinelli then becoming the back-up winger / 3rd choice forward.

This can all only happen if a deal for Toney makes financial sense.

Toney has his aforementioned attitude problems. In every interview he has done in the last 12-months he has talking about his wish to leave Brentford. And just 4 goals in 17 games since returning from his ban perhaps shows a player who has some of his sharpness, motivation or enthusiasm.

When you consider that Spurs have spent £65m on Dominic Solanke (18 months Toney’s junior), then anything under £40m for Toney will be a great deal.

One stumbling block for Arsenal could be Manchester City.

Having sold Julian Alvarez for £80m, City no longer have cover for Erling Haaland. Toney could just as easily fulfil that role as he would be cover and competition for Havertz.

Whilst Man City would offer him a better chance of trophies, Arsenal would offer him more opportunities for minutes to stay in London.

The longer Toney stays at Brentford without playing, the cheaper he gets. And the cheaper her gets, the more interested teams will become.

Do Arsenal want Toney?
Will Toney want to be 2nd choice at Arsenal?
How cheap will Brentford go to?
How much will Arsenal be willing to pay?
Will Man City be a factor?
And could Eddie Nketiah go the other way?

Let us know your thoughts.

Keenos

Same Old Arsenal

2 Replies

A comfortable victory. First 3 points of the season in the bag. Our £65m striker scores his first of the season.

Pre-game, a lot of the talk was about the lack of new forward at the club. In the pub chats, I stood strong on my opinion – anyone that comes in must be better than Kai Havertz, and as of yet no striker has moved clubs who I would have taken above Germany’s first choice.

As Havertz rose to head in our opener, I felt vindicated in sticking by my guns.

My thought was that had we signed Dominic Solanke, Ivan Toney, Ollie Watkins or Benjamin Sesko and they scored that goal, we would all be saying “what a difference a proper striker makes.”

Havertz goal was a delightful header. A proper strikers goal. Something that Olivier Giroud would have been proud of. And he has the added benefit of his all round game being superior to others who are simply just goal scorers.

I get why some fans would have been a little negative when seeing the starting XI. It contained no new players, with Riccardo Calafiori on the bench. But this is where we are with the squad right now.

Last season we pushed Manchester City all the way. So there is no need to fix something that is not broken.

It is always clubs lower down the table that make a huge number of signings. Those at the top, with world class squads, tend not to see a huge turnover in players. And those that come in need to be better than the players they are replacing.

Would Dominic Solanke at £65m or Julian Alvarez at £80m be an improvement on Havertz and Gabriel Jesus? I would say no. Meanwhile, Calafiori is a step up on Jakub Kiwior, and Mikel Merino is a better option centrally than Emile Smith Rowe.

In years gone past, we have started slowly as new players needed to get to grips with playing with each other. The advantage of signing so few was that everyone already knew their roles, and had the connections.

We saw Ben White and Bukayo Saka renew their relationship on the right – whoever the new England manager is needs to make amends with White. We have Oleksandr Zinchenko coming in off the left to make an extra man in midfield. Thomas Parety operating as a one man defensive midfielder. Gabriel Martinelli an outlet on the left. It was very much “same old Arsenal”.

It was interesting to see Zinchenko going off after 60 minutes to be replaced by Jurrien Timber rather than Calafiori.

The feeling is that Calafiori has joined to be a “Ben White” of the left and will eventually be our first choice left back. But with Timber and Zinchenko we have options to play more progressive full backs on either flank.

The sub was not an indication that Timber is ahead of Calafiori in the pecking order, but that different players will be used for different situations.

There will be games where we want to go White left, and either Timber or Zinchenko right. And other games where it will be Timber right, and Calafiori left.

One comment I heard in the ground which hit a note was about how Arteta wanted to “reduce the minutes” of players.

A criticism of Arteta is that he trusts very few, and he does not overly trust his squad. Whilst this is justified, it is also because some of the squad players (such as Smith Rowe and Nelson) are not good enough.

This season we will see Timber and White share minutes on the right, Zinchenko and Calafiori share minutes on the left. Partey, Merino, Declan Rice and Jorginho share minutes in those two midfield position. Leandro Trossard and Martinelli rotate on the left and Havertz and Jesus rotate up top.

It is only William Saliba, Gabriel, Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard who will all Start when fit”.

On the later two, you simply do not rest your best players. How often did Lionel Messi, Mo Salah, Cristiano Ronaldo et al get rested or rotated at their peak? The answer is rarely.

When you have special talents like Odegaard and Saka, you play them. And the more they play the more their bodies adapt to playing.

So we have the first win of the season on the board. We now have a week off until Aston Villa next weekend. And then before we know it we are on the cusp of the first international break of the season.

Enjoy your Sunday!

Keenos

Why have the top 3 English sides only made 2 new signings between them?

3 Replies

On the eve of the start of the new season, The Arsenal have made just one new senior signing – Riccardo Calafiori. That increases to two if you include the David Raya deal being made permenant.

Understandably, some Arsenal fans have got their knickers in a twist with our transfer business this summer. And I do get it.

In recent years, we have seen a lot of new players come into the club, with over £500m spent in the last 3 seasons on 19 new players. So it feels a bit underwhelming that we have spent just £65m on two players, one of which was with us last year.

But the lack of new players is indicative of where we are as a club and where Mikel Arteta is with his squad. Clubs competing for big honours tend not to make a lot of signings.

Lets look at this summer so far:

Liverpool: 0 new signings
Manchester City: 1
Arsenal: 2
Brentford: 2
Fulham: 3
Crystal Palace: 3
Everton: 4
Manchester United: 4
Tottenham: 4
Wolves: 4
Leicester City: 5
Newcastle United: 5
Bournemouth: 6
Brighton: 6
Ipswich: 6
Nottingham Forest: 6
Aston Villa: 8
West Ham United: 8
Chelsea: 9
Southampton: 12

Liverpool have yet to make a signing. Manchester City have made one. Whilst Arsenal have signed 2.

Of the 3 players that have joined, one was at their club last season (Raya) and one was already owned by the clubs group (Savinho).

And this not just in the Premier League – Real Madrid have also only made two signings this summer; Kylian Mbappe and Endrick.

So why are top clubs doing very little business?

Smaller pool of top players

It is fairly simple logic, but the better you are, the less players exist that would improve you. And those players that would improve you tend to already be at top clubs.

Take the striker situation at Arsenal.

Yes, we are in the market for a new striker, but how many strikers in world football would actually be a better option than Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus?

Of the 10 most expensive forwards to move this summer, I would not have taken any of them above the two we have.

Some will make the case for Julian Alvazrez, but he is just a less proven Gabriel Jesus at the same age. And has gone for huge money. Endrick meanwhile is clearly a talent, but again completely unproven.

He could become the next Neymar, he also could be the next Alexandre Pato or Gabriel Barbosa.

When inferior strikers like Dominic Solanke are moving for £65m, then you begin to understand why Arsenal have not made a move. And why Manchester City are going into the new season without a striker to cover Erling Haaland.

As we continue to improve, the pool of players that would improve us shrinks. And we should only be spending to improve the squad. Not spending for the sake of spending.

Less urgent to improve

Not only is the pool of potential transfer targets smaller the better you perform, the need to make large improvements also reduces.

The saying “you stand still in football, you go backwards” is true. But when you are in and around the top of the tree, there is a less need to make drastic improvement’s and make big steps forward. You only need to make a couple of tweaks here and there.

Sir Alex Ferguson always lived by the philosophy of making just a couple of big transfers a season that would improve your first team. In turn, the 2 players they replace become squad members, and therefore improve the squad depth.

This summer, we would be looking to make 2 or 3 new signings who would come in and improve the starting XI. That would in turn improve the squad.

Calafiori is already through the door, and Mikel Merino is imminent. The 3rd signing will be a forward, if one comes available that actually improves us. Beyond that we do not need to do any business.

We are good with the defence we now have. Further forward in midfield we are well set with Declan Rice, Thomas Partey, Jorginho and Merino. Further investment will happen next season when Partey and Jorginho depart.

if we get a new striker, Gabriel Jesus then becomes the 4th option on the wing. If we get a new top winger, we might see Gabriel Martinelli operate as the 3rd striker. We probably do not need to by both a winger and striker this summer.

Moving forward, it will be 2 or 3 new signings a year. And that is something fans will have to get used to!

Final thoughts

When assessing our transfer window, I always look at the players that have joined other clubs and ask my question “would I have wanted them at Arsenal”. With my superior brain power, I also take into account whether I would have wanted them at that transfer fee and wages, and if they would have actually have joined us.

So yes, I would have like Kylian Mbappe at Arsenal. But that deal was never going to happen. But I would not have wanted julian Alvarez or Dominic Solanke. Nor would i have wanted us to sign Pedro Neto or Joao Neves. Amodou Onana would have been nice, but only if Partey had departed. He has not.

When you look at the top transfers across world football, who would you actually have wanted us to sign? Realistically we were never spending £50m on Michael Olise as backup to Bukayo Saka. Douglas Luiz is in the same boat as Onana. Dani Olmo is no where near as good as Martin Odegaard.

Consider this team:

Vlachodimos
Mazraoui Yoro Kilman Maatsen
Nevez Onana
Neto Alvarez Diaby
Solanke

That is the 11 most expensive players transferred this summer by position – excluding the lads that joined Arsenal. The cost nearly £500m to buy combined. How many make our strongest XI? And how many would our strongest XI beat them buy?

Now I am not saying here we do not need to buy anyone. It is more that we are in a new future where we need to expect only a couple of new signings a year. and we as fans need to get used to that.

That endorphin hit of new transfer will happen less often. But those players will buy will be of a higher quality. Players that will improve us.

What we do not need to be doing is spending £150m a summer on players that do not improve us. That are not better than what we have.

Tomorrow we face Wolves. We do not need those negative Nancie’s from the 2010s to refund their voice. We do not need “Spend some fucking money” heard. Because remember, those fools do not care who we buy, they only care about how much we spend.

Keenos