Mbappe deal highlights why “net spend” is pointless

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“Mbappe on a free. Perez is a genius.”

The “free transfer” of Kylian Mbappe to Real Madrid highlights exactly why net spend tables are pointless. Yes, PSG are getting nothing for him, but the cost of a player is not just the transfer fee.

Mbappe is reportedly set to be paid a €100million signing on fee and earn himself €500k a week. These are huge numbers that those that simplify the mathematics of a transfer to just the fee never speak about.

If we assume that Mbappe is signing on a 5-year deal, that means Real Madrid are committed so spending €230m on the French forward. Or €46m a year

Now let’s say to make room for Mbappe, Madrid cash in on Brahim Diaz. The former City winger is valued at €35m by Transfrmarkt. Those unable to comprehend anything beyond net spend will be presenting a €35m “net profit” by signing Mbappe for nothing and selling Diaz. Perez will be promoted as the genius he is not.

Diaz reportedly earns €140k a week, having joined Madrid 5-years ago. That equates to around €7.25m. If we round it up to €9m to take into his unamortised transfer fee, and then add the €35m fee, Madrid would be saving €9m a year and getting a lump sum of €35m. Across 5-years that is a net saving of €45m and a €35m lump sum. €80m in total.

€80m is nearly 2 thirds less than the €230m Mbappe is going to cost them. So whilst the net spend goons will claim a €35m net profit on the deal, Madrid’s net expenditure will actually increase by €150m across the two deals, or €30m a year.

Now it is undeniable that Mbappe is an upgrade on Diaz, and probably justifies an increased €30m a year outlay. But the two deals just illustrate why net profit is a pointless comparison as other aspects of a transfer can hugely influence the total cost.

Thinking back to Arsenal, say Thomas Partey departs on a free this summer. Not released on a free but we agree a £9m transfer fee to get his wages off the books. Partey is reportedly on £200k a week.

To replace Partey, we sign Martin Zubimendi, triggering his £52m release clause. We double the Spainards wages, paying him £100k a week. That will be a “£43m loss” based on net spend merchants.

But over the next year, Zubimendi would cost us £15.6m (£5.2m wages + £10.4m amortised transfer fee). Meanwhile we would have saved £19.4m by selling Partey (£10.4m wages + £9m amortised transfer fee).

So despite our “net spend” being negative, we are actually making a saving of £3.8m across the two deals.

If neither club made any more deals this summer, Arsenal would have a net spend of MINUS £43m, whilst Real Madrid would have a positive net spend of €35m. It will be shown as “Edu clueless, Perez genius” by many. This despite Arsenal actually reducing their expenditure by £3.8m and Madrid increasing theirs by €30m.

And maybe this is where the conversation needs to go.

Instead of talking about “net spend”, we need to talk more about “net expenditure” which then takes into account transfer fees, signing on fees, other bonuses and wages.

Spending €230m on Mbappe is not a genius move. Just like Manchester City committing over £200m to Erling Haland (salary, fees, wages) was not genius. It is only promoted as genius moves by those who are unable to comprehend that there are additional costs when it comes to transfers beyond that initial fee.

For years to come, Mbappe will show as £0m on the net spend tables. The truth is the deal is one of the most expensive of all time.

Enjoy your Wednesday.

Note: Please do not comment about fees or wages being incorrect. All fees and wages are always estimates. But that does not take away from the point.

Keenos

Arsenal confirm 2024 departures

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Yesterday the club announced a list of 22 players that have been released by the club.

Firstly, the list was combined men and women’s. Not sure why the club did this. Without opening up a debate, the majority of fans only care for the men’s team. Separate lists should have been produced for clarity.

On the list was the likes of Mohamed Elneny and Cedric Soares. Neither player has played much in recent years, but reports from the training ground is both players have maintained their professionalism and provided much needed experience and guidance to the youngest squad in the Premier League. We wish both well.

The rest of the list was youngsters, including the likes of Arthur Okonkwo, Kide Taylor-Hart and Tyreece John-Jules.

As always when the yearly list comes out, their will be complaints that we have released players who “never go a chance.” I also find this a naive viewpoint. The Arsenal are a title challenging team and we can not afford to give a youngster an opportunity on the off-chance that he performs better on the pitch than they have in training or out on-loan.

Let’s remember, Mikel Arteta and his team see these guys in training every day, for years. They will know more than any of us the standard of them and whether they are ready. Just because you are an Arsenal academy graduate, does not mean you deserve a crack at the first team.

Okonkwo will be the big name this year fans are crying about, especially following his good spell at Wrexham. But there is a huge gap between League Two and the Premier League. He certainly does deserve a chance to be second choice, and is behind other equally talented youngster (Karl Hein) as 3rd choice.

The fact that we are in the process of tying down Hein to a new deal, rather than keeping Okonkwo, highlights we believe the Estonian is a better option.

“We could have got a fee for them” is also often commented when we release a player for free.

The only way we could have got a free is if we gave them a new deal. Tied further funds up in terms of wages on players we did not want, in the hope of getting a couple of million down the line for them. And if that offer did not come in, the same fans would complain as to why we gave them a new deal.

Football is cutthroat and very few make it at any professional level, let alone the highest level. Many of those let go will struggle for a career in football. They will drop down to the lower leagues and have to rebuild their lives. I wish every single one of them all the luck in the world.

We continue to work on deals with Hein, Reuel Walters and Amario Cozier-Dubbery.

Contracts have been offered and it is now up to the players whether they stay or go. I always take the opinion that if as an 18-year-old you do not want to be stay at your boyhood, then the door is open to leave.

I will not be upset if any of the 3 above leave. I rate them all, but as we have seen with Omari Hutchinson and others, the grass is often not greener.

In sad news, Kevin Campbell continues to fight following kidney failure.

We received the information on Saturday that the big man had been hospitalised and in a fight for his life. We agreed not to blog on the matter as it was just speculation and rumours. Nothing had come out from either his family or any of the clubs he played for.

Arsenal confirmed what we had heard yesterday via social media.

Campbell has touched many people within the blogging / vlogging / podcast community and has always been active both with his own shows and as a guest on others (lets not mention his work with AFTV though).

Thoughts and prayers are with our last great academy striker!

Enjoy your Tuesday.

Keenos

Arsenal season tickets – use it or lose it

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Morning! We go again for another week.

Over the weekend I got my season ticket renewal confirmation. Within the email was the updated season ticket utilisation rules

The club have increased the minimum amount of times your ticket must be used to retain it to 20 of the 23 home games. This is a great move from the club.

If you do not use it for at least 20 games, then you lose it, and someone who will go 20+ games will be go in your place.

“Using” your season ticket also includes putting it on TX on using ticket transfer. The move is done to encourage fans to not only use their season ticket, but to put it up for sale when they are unable to use it. It ensures a bum is on the seat.

There will of course be times where someone can not sell it on the TX. If they are hospitalised or something. The club will deal with such situations on a case by case basis.

Not really sure how anyone can disagree with this policy. It ensure seats are used and season tickets are not owned by people who can write off £1k a year to just go to the biggest of games. Use it or lose it.

Not much else happening on the word of Arsenal now.

Mindless transfer speculation has taken over NewsNow. All of it is bollocks. Meanwhile the Ladies team is taking up the front page on the club webpage.

After a tough long season, it is no surprise everyone needs a little break. It is also why I don’t understand those clubs going on a post-season tour.

Get your season finished, go away for a couple of weeks to recharge before returning for either international duty or to continue progressing transfers and planning for 2024/25.

You can tell by the lack of relevant Arsenal news that everyone is basically on recharge mode right now.

And on that note I need another coffee to get myself going this morning!

Have a great Monday.

Keenos