Back in May, the question got asked in the WhatsApp group: How much do you think Arsenal will spend this summer?

I answered in my normal annoying not answering the question way: It all depends on sales.

That was followed up with my normal, boring, over the top explanation:

I expect us to spend £100m off the bat. That could rise to £150 or £200m depending on sales.

Balogun, Xhaka, Tierney, Pepe, Mari, Trusty, Lokonga, Tavares, they could all raise us in excess of £100m. Throw in Emile Smith Rowe as well.

As it turned out, I am proven to be correct. This is not unusual.

We came out the traps fast and by July had spent £196.3m on Declan Rice, Jurrien Timber and Kai Havertz. We then added David Raya on loan that will cost us £3m. £199.3m on incomings. Let’s round it up to £200m.

Pablo Mari was already on a promise to Monza, whilst Xhaka’s move to Leverkusen went through as we closed in on Rice. Then it was American pair Auston Trusty and Matt Turner.

£42.4m in sales at the beginning of the season. I get it was clear we needed to make some more, but I was not worried.

As we went into the bank holiday weekend, the deals of Kieran Tierney (loan) and Folarin Balogun progressed. Both deemed surplus to requirements by Mikel Arteta.

Then yesterday, it was announced that Nuno Tavares was set to join Nottinghasm Forest on loan. A fee of around £2m with an option to buy of £12m.

Those 3 transfers added around a further £40m to the sales pot (Balogun fee, Tierney and Tavares loan fees).

Over £80m raised in sales before deadline day. You deduct that from the £200m we spent and you are not far from the original £100m I mentioned earlier in the blog – £117m is the approximate calculation.

With transfer deadline day looming, we can expect further exits (and not further signings), that will bring that figure much closer to the £100m I predicted.

Albert Sambi Lokonga, Rob Holding and Cedric Soares are all available for sale, if someone wants to come in for them.

If they depart on permanent deals over the next day or so, then I would expect us to dip under £100m net spend for the summer. And even if they leave on loan, the fees paid for them will get us closer to the figure.

One player that I have not mentioned yet is Nicolas Pepe.

With everything going on in Saudi, I expected him to be a transfer target for them. Maybe early in the window he turned down their advances, preferring to continue to prove re-invent himself in a relevant league.

The Saudi transfer window does not close until 20 September, so there is still time for him to make a move to the Middle East.

Overall, a good window for us. All entirely predictable. And also a sample of what to expect in the future.

We no longer need the huge squad overhaul of previous years. We have a bright, young squad. The next few years will see us mimic Manchester City’s transfer policy of 2-3 big money signings a season.

Enjoy deadline day. Do not expect any incomings. Tomorrow will be about moving on those 3 or 4 players that will not feature in the first team squad this season.

Keenos

New in this month!

We originally had 50 of these Bukayo Saka and Emile Smith-Rowe shin pads. We only have a handful left! #Arsenal #ArsenalFC #AFChttps://t.co/K0MAsBNbcj pic.twitter.com/ZxcRsD31DV

— Kick Off Merchants (@KOMerchants) August 18, 2023