Author Archives: keenosafc

£140m expenditure could transform Arsenal for 2019/20

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What has become clear in recent weeks to everyone is just how many average players we still have in the squad that need to be moved on.

This summer, naturally, some of those will leave on a free transfer. Whilst it is poor business that we have lost nearly £200m worth of talent in recent years with very little in terms of transfer fees coming in; we need to bite the bullet, get them off the payroll and move on.

Unai Emery had to be given time to analyse the squad. Work out if the likes of Aaron Ramsey and Danny Welbeck had a future at the club.

The last summer the majority of transfer decisions were made by Sven Mislintat. He bought in the players that emery had to work with. Over the next 2 windows, Emery will have more input.

Emery will have more of a say in the players, or types of players he wants, and also the players he does not want.

I have attempted to put myself in Emery’s shoes. Take a step back and consider who he believes will be in Arsenal’s squad come August 2019.

Petr Cech will leave in the summer. His contract runs out at the end of the season. We should thank him for his contribution and not offer him a new contract. The £100,000 a week that he is on can be invested better elsewhere.

Hector Bellerin is class act. Some have only now realised this since he has been injured. He should be kept. Long term.

With Aaron Ramsey leaving, we have 5 central midfielders going into 2019/20. One of which is Mohamed Elneny. We need to keep the Egyptian for squad depth – especially as one of those 5 midfielders if going to be our cover at right back. Elneny should only be sold if we sign a budget replacement (Ever Banega?).

Sokratis has been a good signing, bringing aggression and leadership at the back. He is not a long term solution to our issues in defence, but if we buy a young partner for him, they could buld a good relationship for the next 2 seasons.

Fellow centre back Laurent Koscielny is another who should be kept. If we buy a new centre back, it pushes the Frenchman down to 4th choice. More on the defence later.

Henrikh Mkhitaryan has not set the world alight since he joined us, and I doubt he will ever reach the heights of his time at Borussia Dortmund. However with Ramsey leaving, he is our 2nd choice number 10 behind the injury prone Mesut Ozil. Also provides width.

Sadly Aaron Ramsey is off. It is out of our hands now. His agent has messed everything up for his client. I would love it if we could come to a new contract agreement (the £150k Juventus has reportedly offered would be “reasonable”) however if feels like a decision has been made and the club are sticking to it.

Alexandre Lacazette. Class act. Keep.

It is unlikely anyone will be willing or able to take on Mesut Ozil’s wages, so we are stuck with the troubled star. His injuries are becoming a concern – for your highest paid player to miss 40% of games is too much. However, if an offer of around ~£30m came in, we should take it. You could get in a replacement for half that wage. The saving in salary and the £30m incoming transfer fee would give the club around £70m to finance a replacement.

Lucas Torreira. Class act. Keep.

Stephan Lichsteiner Added leadership to the squad. His time is up though. Would rather Ainsley Maitland-Niles get a chance as Bellerin’s cover.

David Ospina is an odd one. He still has a year left on his contract and could come back to provide cover for Bernd Leno. But talk is that Napoli will make the deal permanent. I woild rather keep then sell, but it is out of our hands.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. Class act. Keep.

My Utility Ainsley Maitland-Niles is turning into an important player. Next season he will be back up to Bellerin, provide cover at left back, be 5th choice central midfielder and is an option on the wing.

Rob Holding. Keep. Class act. Battle it out with Sokratis to partner a new centre back signing.

Alex Iwobi. Keep. Home grown. Can cover all 3 positions behind the striker.

Nacho Monreal. Keep. Offer him a 1 year extension. Buy a new younger left back. He is then experience, quality cover.

Bernd Leno. Keep. Had a tough last month but is clearly a good goal keeper.

One player we need to cash in on is Shkodran Mustafi. We could command £30m+ for him. If we buy a new defender he is then competing with Sokratis and Holding to partner. He could find himself as 4th choice were he to stay. Selling him and Calum Chambers could raise £50m, all of which could go into a new top central defender

As above, the time has come to cash in on Calum Chambers. Rob holding has moved a long way ahead of him, and selling both him and Mustafi would be key in raising funds for a single, top class replacement.

Danny Welbeck. Leaving on a free transfer. Right time to let him go.

Carl Jenkinson. Sell. But likelihood is he will seee out the last year of his contract as there will be no takers on £45k a week

Emiliano Martinez / Matt Macey. Put these two together. Keep one sell the other. Will be 3rd choice keeper.

Kostantinos Mavropanos. Keep. Would be 5th choice centre back next season. Could move to 4th choice when Koscielny leaves in 2020. A year later he would still be just 23 and be in a position to replace Sokratis, and compete with Holding as a starter.

Matteo Guendouzi. Keep. Could become World Class.

Like Mustafi, we could command a transfer fee for Saed Kolasinac. He is not good enough defensively to be Monreal’s long term replacement. Cash in and buy a long term replacement for Monreal. Would raise around £20million.

Granit Xhaka has performed well since Lucas Torreira joined. They are amongst the best midfielder pairings in the league. Keep.

Currently on loan, Reiss Nelson has been performing well for 1899 Hoffenheim, although not a regular first team starter for them. Not sure if ready to be first choice at Arsenal, but would give us a great option outwide. Genuine width we have missed this season. Nelson, a new winger, Iwobi and Mkhitaryan would give us 4 options out wide.

Joe Willock, Emile Smith Rowe & Eddie Nketiah all have a role to play next season. Will become full time first team squad members instead of jumping between the first team and U23s.

That would leave us with 19 senior players and the 4 youngsters. Sales of Mustafi, Kolasinac and Chambers could raise £70m which can be added to our funds to purchase a new central defender, left back and quality winger.

So what will the squad look like next season?

We will have 13 non-home grown players and a total of 18 registered players.

This would give the club space to buy a further 7 players on top of what we already have, 4 of which can be non-home grown.

I doubt we would register a full squad as the 5 unregistered youngsters would fulfil the place of squad players. Realistically we have the space to make 4 signings

Left Back
Central defender
Winger

This would take the total first team squad – including the unregistered U21 players – to 26 in total. A more than manageable size.

Those players being sold would raise up to about £70million, and all those leaving (including those on a free transfer) would free up a further £30million in salary. This alongside

By my maths, that would give us about £85million to spend on transfer fees (amortised for 5 year contract duration) and salaries. so what could that get us?

Centre Back – £50m (£10m a year) / £150k a week (£6.5m a year) = £16.5m a year

Left Back – £30m (£6m a year) / £100k a week (£5.2m a year) = £11.2m a year

Winger – £60m (£12m a year) / £150k a week (£7.8m a year) = £19.8m a year

That in total would add just under £50m to our yearly expenditure. Well within budget, even without Champions League football.

Back Sven
Back Rual
Back Unai

Keenos

Arsenal lose £200m due to poor player sales

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In recent weeks, one thing that has come to mind more often than not when discussing Arsenal finances is how we have criminally undersold players.

There has been a lot of talk about how Stan Kroenke needs to invest in the team – pumping in his own money. Many people are pointing to Liverpool, claiming that they have owners who are bank rolling the club to success.

This is completely fictional. The Liverpool owners are no different to Stan Kroenke. They believe in a self-sufficient model, making the money that the side brings in available for transfers.

The four main sources of income for all clubs are TV revenue, gate receipts, commercial revenue and player sales.

Due to the expansion of their new stadium, Liverpool’s match day revenue would have closed up on Arsenal. Arsenal’s lack of Champions League football would also mean that the TV figure is reversed. Ultimately, over the last 18 months, Liverpool and Arsenal have bought in similar revenue.

So how have Liverpool bank rolled the signings of the likes of Virgil van Dijk and Alisson?

The simple answer is through buying and selling well.

Over the last 5 years, Liverpool have spent nearly £200m more than Arsenal. the total expenditure of both clubs is:

Liverpool: £633m
Arsenal: £434m

It is the net spend which is interesting though, as Arsenal have actually outspent Liverpool:

Arsenal: £255m
Liverpool: £211m

The high spend for Liverpool has been driven by player sales – they have raised £422m over the last 5 years. This is against Arsenal who have raised just £179m.

Liverpool have sold very well. But Arsenal have also sold very poorly.

Selling poorly is not a new thing for Arsenal. It has been going on for over a decade.

Think back to Partick Vieira. We only received £13,700,000 for the club captain when selling him to Juventus. A year later we sold Thierry Henry to Barcelona for just £16,100,000.

We allowed both player to enter the last year of their contract. Both were sold a year too late, reducing their transfer fees from close to £40m to less than £20m.

Then you have Robin van Persie. The Premier League top scorer sold for just £22,000,000 to Manchester United. Again, he was 12 months away from his contract running out.

We then have the likes of Wojciech Szczęsny and Serge Gnabry. We got less than £15,000,000 combined for the pair. Like those before them, both were allowed to leave on the cheap due to their contract situation. Had they not had 12 months left on their contract, we probably could have commanded closer to £50million for the pair (Szczęsny £30m; Gnabry £20m).

We then have even more recent deals.

The club lost Jack Wilshere on a free transfer and are set to lose Aaron Ramsey on the same. We also had to let Alexis Sanchez go to Manchester United last January.

Wilshere, Ramsey and Sanchez gone, and all we got in exchange was Henrikh Mkhitaryan.

That trio is around £100m worth of talent. Lost had they been sold a year earlier. Add in Danny Welbeck and you are talking about over £100m in players over a 12 month period.

There are two main issues the club face. and need to change.

The first is the wage bill.

The total that we spend on wages is not to dissimilar to Liverpool – they spend £210m a year on wage; Arsenal £199m.

Arsenal have the 5th highest wage bill in the league, so reducing it is not really up for discussion if we want to compete.

The problem Arsenal have is that over the last 5-or-so years we have given some very average players a high salary.

Arsene Wenger and Ivan Gazidis had a fairly socialist outlook when it came to the wage bill. They believed that the lowest and highest earners should not differ by too much.

This led to us underpaying the top players (prior to Mesut Ozil) and overpaying poor players – the likes of Carl Jenkinson on £45,000 a week.

This mean that when it came to selling the likes of Lucas Perez, Kieran Gibbs and Francis Coquelin, we were not able to command big transfer fees.

Those players did not want to take a wage drop (for obvious reasons) when leaving the club. This results in the buying club offering Arsenal less in transfer fees so that they can cover the cost of higher wages.

If Arsenal are going to compete again, they need to start making more money from player sales. This can only be done if we have better control over the wage bill.

The second factor is we have let too many players enter the last year of their contract.

From van Persie to Ramsey, allowing a player to enter his last 12 months either means we have to take a reduced fee (in van Persie’s case) or no fee at all (Ramsey, Welbeck, Wilshere).

Poor player sales has cost us big in the last 5 years.

Gnabry, Sanchez, Szczęsny, Wilshere, Welbeck and Ramsey have all left (or are set to leave) the club. Between them we have received less than £15million and Mkhitaryan.

Close to £200m has walked out of the door.

Had we sold a year earlier, got a market-rate transfer fee, we could have gone out and bought Virgil van Dijk, Alisson and Mo Salah.

We did not sell a year earlier, and it has led to an underfunded squad.

It is clearly not good enough.

Back in October Raul Sanllehi spoke about the situation:

“In general, I do believe that a player’s contract should never go to the last year, as a policy,” said Sanllehi in a wide-ranging interview with the Sunday Telegraph. “But I don’t think I am inventing the wheel. Anybody could agree on that. Normally, the contracts of the players are for five years. You need to have a clear idea of what you want to do with that player when he is in the third year, at the latest.”

It is clear that Arsenal are changing, but the damage in the short term has already been done. A lot of these contracts, a lot of the deals, were prior to Sven Mislintat and Raul Sanllehi coming in. But it is time to draw a line in the sand.

We have seen the likes of Bernd Leno and Lucas Torreira come in on fairly low wages. Matteo Guendouzi is reportedly only on £15,000 a week.

It will take a while for Arsenal to turnover the playing staff. We need to cut our losses on the likes of Jenkinson, Welbeck and Petr Cech, and replace them with cheaper, better options.

Moving forward I back Mislintat and Sanllehi to sort out the state of our squad – to stop losing players on the cheap or for free. To sell high and reinvest.

Like Liverpool selling Coutinho and Saurez, we might have to sell a star player or two – the likes of Lucas Torriera – to fund further transfers. To reinvest again.

Poor transfer dealings have led to Arsenal losing up to £200m in revenue over the last 5 years. The past is the past and there is no point dwelling on the mistakes made too much.

Back the new management team to get things right.

Keenos

The substitution that changed the world

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As Alexandre Lacazette’s number appeared in the board, boos filled the air in North London as Arsenal fans showed their disapproval of the decision.

The decision by Unai Emery to take off the Frenchman for Aaron Ramsey was not a popular one. Fans felts Lacazette was still contributing. Far more than Alex Iwobi or Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.

They had been influenced by the media – who had highlighted how often Lacazette gets taken off. They felt it was unfair. That he should finish 90 minutes. The frustration was that he was also the first man to be hooked off.

What the emotional response highlighted was why fans are fans and the manager is in the dugout.

A football manager can not let his emotions, the crowd around him, or the media affect his decision making.

Emery felt Lacazette for Ramsey was the right decision; and Arsenal took the game from 2-1 to 4-1 with Ramsey scoring the 3rd. Aubameyang – who many felt should have been the man to be taken off – scored the 4th.

When the substitution was made, the chap next to me muttered “why are we going negative and defensive”. That comment really summed up the lack of understanding of fans. Ramsey has never been a negative, defensive substation.

Emery fully explained the logic of the change:

“Tactically we thought in that moment we needed to change for more balance. Above all we know Fulham midfielder Jean Michael Seri is coming on and we need a player close to him, not to let him play easily with the ball.

“Ramsey can do that and also help us in attack, and he scored. The reason is this. I need to do my work. And not maybe because every supporter can have a different opinion, tactically.”

By bringing on Ramsey, it meant a formation switch from 433 to 4321.

Ramsey could both press high onto Seri whilst still maintaining an attacking threat. A negative substation would have been bringing Mo Elneny on rather than Ramsey.

Some fans have also moaned that it should have been Iwobi or Aubameyang to come off rather than Lacazette. Again, there are logical reasons why they remained on the pitch.

Emery went to 4321 with Iwobi and Ramsey in behind Aubameyang. Lacazette can not play behind a striker. It is not his game. Neither can Aubameyang. So if you want to switch to that formation, Iwobi must stay on.

There is also logic behind keeping Aubameyang on ahead of Lacazette and it is all about speed.

Aubameyang is quicker than Lacazette. If the game is tight and the opponents are coming on to you, you need to be able to counter punch. Aubameyang on the counter attack ensured that if Arsenal didn’t get that quick 3rd from Ramsey, they would have a threat up top. They would be able to hit Fulham on the break.

It used to infuriate me back in the day when Theo Walcott was taken off when Arsenal had a one goal lead. You want to keep your quickest forward on as the likelihood is the 2 goal lead will come from a break.

Aubameyang moved into the middle, was then a threat with the ball over the top and Ramsey and Iwobi presses high behind him disrupting Fulham’s passing.

Ramsey scored the 3rd. Aubameyang the 4th. Emery’s decision justified.

But still last night, after seeing their side win 4-1, some fans were still moaning about the substitution.

Keenos