I am confident about the weekend. That probably means an upset is on the cards.
On paper, Arsenal should beat Leeds United at home and Liverpool should thrash Tottenham at Anfield.
If results fall that way Arsenal will be 5 points clear in the race for 4th place.
But this season has been filled with shock results and, with 4 games to go, I expect their to be at least one twist and another turn in the race for 4th.
That could happen this weekend if Tottenham repeat their performance against Manchester City in February.
We all expected Man City to make it 4 defeats in a row for Tottenham which would have resulted in Spurs being 8th in the league and well off the pace. Tottenham won 3-2.
What sums the season up is the next weekend they lost to Burnley.
Even if results go as expected this weekend, I still think there will be a slip up from either Arsenal or Tottenham in one those last two games.
Our trip to Newcastle has “banana skin” written all over it.
They have been one of the in-form Premier League sides since the turn of the year and will look to finish the season off with a flourish in their last home game of the season.
So even if we go 5 points clear this weekend, we still have 2 tough away trips in the last 3 games.
It also would not surprise me if Tottenham failed to beat Burnley and both North London sides end up limping over the line.
In other breaking news, Mikel Arteta has signed a new deal. This will upset the minority but is widely supported by the majority.
A couple of people have said “why have we not waited until the end of the season”. I do not understand this mindset.
Yes, the season is not over, but finishing 4th or 5th should not dictate the decision on Arteta’s future.
He is clearly the right man for the job right now and as Manchester United have shown, there are not many good managers currently on the market.
It is also clear and obvious that the dressing backs him 100%.
In the last 18 months we have got rid of the disrupters. Those that would not listen and whose ego’s made them belief they were above Arteta, and above Arsenal.
We have the youngster squad in the Premier League playing under the youngest manager in the league.,
The new contract for Arteta will see him grow alongside the likes of Bukayo Saka and Martin Odergaard. And as they grow together, The Arsenal will grow.
With injuries to Thomas Partey and Kieran Tierney, everything looked a little bleak at Arsenal after 3 defeats on the spin.
Throw in Alexandre Lacazette’s drop off in form and questions were rightly asked about our decision to let 6 first team squad players leave in January.
In the last 3 games, things have dramatically improved and we are back in pole position for top 4. The performances of fringe players have been key to that improvement.
Mohamed Elneny and Eddie Nketiah were both given their first Premier League starts of the calendar year against Chelsea. They have since both been ever presents in the next 3 games, contributing to 3 wins out of 3.
If I was to have one major criticism of Mikel Arteta’s time at Arsenal, it is that he has a tendency to alienate fringe players and not trust them to come in and do a job – which in turn leads him to continue playing players who are out of form or carrying slight knocks.
Take the Brighton defeat.
With Tierney and Partey out, Arteta opted to play Granit Xhaka at left back and a midfield of Albert Sambi Lokonga, Martin Odergaard and Emile Smith Rowe.
He decided to leave out our only fit left back in Nuno Tavares.
That decision left him without his two senior central midfielders; but he did not trust Mohamed Elneny to slot in and fill the gap.
You also had a misfiring Alexandre Lacazette up top who kept his place despite just 1 goal in his previous 14 games.
Now I know football is easy in hindsight, but the decision to play Xhaka at left back went as predicted – badly.
Also, whilst Elneny might not be everyone’s cup of tea, he has shown time and again for Arsenal and Egypt that he is a solid player.
Elneny is not exceptional. He won’t win you a game. But he makes very few errors and is dependable in the middle of the park.
Could he have been utilised more this season? I would say yes.
He has started just 4 league games, 3 of which have come in the last 14 days. Could we have taken a bit of pressure of Thomas Partey by playing Elneny a bit more?
Partey has had a couple of injury problems since he has joined us. It has felt a couple of times he has come back from injury too soon – and played with niggles.
With better use of Elneny, could we have managed Partey’s injuries better?
Elneny’s contract is also due to expire in a couple of months. It is unlikely to be renewed.
With us in the Europe next season, we will play at least 50 games.
Considering Elneny’s consistency, would he still not have been a good option as cover for Partey into next season?
Through a lack of trust and a little mismanagement, it feels like we are losing a decent player and are going to have to spend £20m+ on a replacement who might not be as good.
You also look at Nketiah since he has come into the team.
He has been transformed in recent weeks.
He has shown that he is a clinical finisher, pace in behind, pressing and ball holding ability.
Considering this is what we are looking for as a striker, it is beginning to feel like Nketiah has also been poorly used.
I am not saying that Nketiah will be a world beater. He will probably never be that. But his attributes are exactly what we need in our system.
Had Arteta played him a bit more, trusted him a bit more following Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s departure, we might be discussing only needing to sign one striker this summer. Not two.
Nketiah’s performances remind me a lot of Danny Welbeck during his time at Arsenal.
You know he will never be a superstar. But he will do the hard running and be a good option as cover.
If Nketiah leaves, we will get around £6-8million compensation. That feels like we are letting a £15-20million striker walk out the door.
Arteta himself has recently admitted that he has mismanaged Nketiah’s career.
Could Nketiah and Elneny have extended their careers at Arsenal?
Some will say no, that we need to move on from these sort of players and buy better. I understand that.
But I also think the pair fall into the Rob Holding category of players. Good eggs that will rarely let you down whom you need in a 25 man squad.
What the likes of Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola are both good at is keeping the fringe players involved. Making them feel loved at that they are part of a bigger picture. Of course, it helps when they are winning things.
I appreciate that without European football and early cup exits this season, game time has naturally been limited for the likes of Elneny, Nketiah and Holding. But that has changed.
Arteta has talked about wanting a 22 outfield players. By the time you take away those leaving on a free this summer, we have just 15.
Better management of the fringe players could have seen the likes of Nketiah and Elneny fill some of those gaps.
The minimum target for Mikel Arteta this season was a return to Europa League football through a top 6 finish.
Following victory over West Ham, that target has been achieved.
Now at this point, some of you will be moaning about “having a target of top 6th is lower mentality” and that “the target should be to win the league”. Those saying it probably do not understand how targets are set and the methodology behind them.
The most commonly used tool to set targets is SMART objectives.
Targets should be: Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant and Time-Bound.
“For 2021/22, Arsenal’s minimum target is a top 6 finish”.
That objective clearly fits into all 5 SMART criteria.
Arsenal should be aiming to win the league, but that is a target set in the longer term.
We have just finished 8th twice in a row and have not finished top 4 since 2016.
The middle criteria of SMART is “achievable”. The target must be something that is attainable. Is a realistic outcome.
To jump from 8th to 1st – with the 5th highest wage bill in the league – is clearly an unachievable outcome; and therefore does not fit the SMART criteria.
“Then our target should have been top 4”.
Again, you hear this from people who have never set, or been set, targets.
People are often set two targets.
The first is the minimum target, which is exactly what it says on the top – a minimum expectation.
With us having the 5th highest wage bill, and with the investment we have had in transfers over the last few years, top 6 should always be the minimum target.
Infact, or minimum target should actually be top 5 considering the wages factor. But with those two 8th place finishes, top 6 was reasonable enough.
Now once a minimum target has been established, we then usually discuss a “stretch target”.
Stretch targets are used to motivate people to exceed their minimum target.
It would usually go along the lines of “hit your minimum target and you are safe in your job. Hit your stretch target and you get a pay rise and/or promotion.
Arteta’s stretch target wild have been too 4.
To go from 8th to 6th would have been acceptable performance. From 8th to 4th will have been an exceptional performance.
So we have achieved our minimum target for the season and are on course to hit our stretch target.
And then next season we will see new targets set.
If we make top 4 this season, then expect our minimum target to be top 5 (taking into account that 5th places wage bill). A stretch target could then be to mount a title challenge – or perhaps finish top 3.
As time goes on and we re-establish ourselves as a top 4 regular, revenue and expenditure will begin to increase. And as a result what our minimum target for a season is will also increase.
So well done Arteta. Minimum target hit. Now let’s get top 4 and move forward again next season.