Arsenal – State of the Squad 2023/24

Leave a reply

The international transfer window is now open! And also overnight, all players with expiring contract have are now officially free agents.

So we decided today would be a good day to release our annual “Arsenal – State of the Squad” analysis.

What we always try and do in this yearly reviews is see exactly where the squad is ahead of the new season, taking into account home grown requirements to register players.

Normal rules apply:

• Clubs can register up to 25 senior players in their A list
• Of which no more than 17 can be “non-home grown (NHG)”
• To be considered home grown (HG), a player must have been registered to an English (or Welsh) clubs for 3 entire seasons before the season he turns 22
• Players born before 01/01/2002 do not need to be registered in the A list

The current squad list does not make for pretty reading in terms of numbers:

As it stands, we have 21 NHG players. That is 4 too many.

We need to see 5 players exit over this window to enable us to register Jurrien Timber without worry. If we are unable to facilitate loans or transfers out, the result will be players left unregistered.

So who is on the chopping board? The 5 obvious names are:

Rúnar Alex Rúnarsson
Cédric Soares
Auston Trusty
Granit Xhaka
Nicolas Pépé

But I expect more to also depart including:

Nuno Tavares
Albert Sambi Lokonga

Those 7 exits would take us down to 14 NHG players. Enough space to then recruit a further 4 NHG if we chose.

But we have to remember that HG players must also be registered As it stands we have 11 HG players that would require registering.

If your thought now is “14+11 is 24, that’s alright, it is 25” then you are right, but also wrong.

You are right in the fact that it would leave us with a 25 man squad, but not that it is alright. We still need to sign players.

Kai Havertz is already confirmed, with Timber and Declan Rice incoming. That would take us to 27 players. So we still need to shed at least 2…

The two obvious ones are Rob Holding and Folarin Balogun. I would not also be surprised if Arthur Okonkwo is also loaned out again.

Karl Hein does not require registering on the A list due to his age. That means if he continues as our 3rd choice keeper, we can free up a place on our A list for another player. If Okonkwo remains (and Hein is lined up), then the Englishman takes up a squad spot.

14 NHG players and 9 HG will give us 23 players registered. That then free’s ourselves up to sign Rice, Havertz and Timber without fear of leaving a player unregistered.

At that point, we will be at 25. Any further transfers will be made on a “one in one out” basis – although we could sign Romeo Lavia without needing to register him.

If we wish to sign anyone else, we do have further assets we can sell: Kieran Tierney, Thomas Partey, Mohamed Elneny, Emile Smith Rowe, Reiss Nelson and Eddie Nketiah have all been linked with moves away over the last 12 months.

(Note: This blog is being written on 30/06, so it might be confirmed that Nelson is leaving due to his contract expiring by the time this is published).

You also do not want to be going into the season with exactly 25 players registered.

Having just 23 registered will allow you to make a couple of signings in January without the need to sell or de-register.

So whilst Arsenal’s squad is currently bloated, and we have close to a dozen players too many, the situation can be easily dealt with.

The bigger concern would be if we had too many NHG and not enough HG. That would lead us with huge headaches as we would be limited to only buying English players.

We now just need to dump that deadwood.

Keenos

Buy Havertz and Rice, get Timber free

1 Reply

“Just pay the asking price” became the statement of the early summer. One that I became very bored and frustrated with.

I do hope that all those saying this will live their lives by their words. Everytime they buy a house or car, they just pay the asking price. They never make an offer below the asking price, and certainly not below what the maximum they would be willing to pay. No “agree to meet in the middle”.

Through negotiating, Jurrien Timber is basically a free transfer.

West Ham’s provisional asking price for Declan Rice was £120million in guaranteed fees. We ended up signing him for £100m guaranteed, with £5m add-ons. A saving of £20m.

Across London, Chelsea were reportedly asking for £75m. We have reportedly secured him for £60m plus £5m add-ons. That is a saving of £15m on the guaranteed asking price.

Had we just “paid the asking price” on both, we would have spent £195m this summer on Havertz and Rice. Instead we negotiated.

Those negotiations has seen us commit £160m in guaranteed fees. A saving of nearly £35m.

With that £35m, we have gone to Ajax and come away from Amsterdam with Jurrien Timber.

The Timber transfer fee is almost the same as what we saved ourselves in negotiating with West Ham and Chelsea.

Ajax were asking for £50m in guaranteed fees for their young Dutch central defender. We got him for £35m guaranteed fees with £5m in add-ons.

For pretty much the same money we would have paid for Rice and Havertz had we just paid the asking price, we get Rice, Havertz and Timber. Hence my headline – Buy Havertz and Rice, get Timber free.

And that, ladies and gentleman, is why you do not just “pay the asking price”.

Keenos

Arsenal confirm biggest transfer since Alan Ball

5 Replies

We all knew it was coming, but last night Arsenal finally confirmed the signing of Kai Havertz.

With everything that has been going on with Declan Rice, it feels like the Havertz deal has gone under the radar. And I do not think people realise how big a deal it is.

We have gone to Chelsea with a bag full of cash and walked back to North London with their best player.

Ignore what Chelsea fans are saying. Last season Havertz was their best player.

And has probably been their best player of the last 3-years since he joined.

Signing the best player from a rival at home is something we have not done in god-knows how long.

I honestly can not remember the last time we went to Manchester United or Liverpool and signed their best player. And we have certainly not done it since Chelsea got their Rubles.

Some will say “Sol Campbell”, but Tottenham were not a top club then (and are not now!).

Even if you extend it to abroad…

We had Alexis Sanchez. A fantastic talent playing for Barcelona. But he never really became a mainstay on the Barcelona first team, often being rotated in and out.

In 2014/15, the Catalan side signed Luis Suarez so Sanchez became surplus for requirements. Suarez joining Neymar and Lionel Messi.

Mesut Ozil is another big name signing. He joined the year before Sanchez. But like Sanchez, his club no longer wanted him.

The German had started just 23 La Liga games the season before for Real Madrid. And in the summer of 2013, Madrid signed Isco and Gareth Bale. Ozil was moved on.

In both Ozil and Sanchez’s case, they were no longer wanted by their clubs.

They were not first team regulars in their final seasons, their clubs were looking to cash in and upgrade, and they were being touted around Europe. Havertz is not the same.

Last season, no Chelsea player played more games than Kai Havertz.

Of the 50 games Chelsea played, Havertz played a part in 47 of them, starting 38. Only goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga played more minuted.

Havertz is also one of the first name on the teamsheet for his country. And we are not talking about some tin-pot nation. We are talking about Germany.

Since making his international debut in 2018 he has:

  • Played 38 games
  • Been left on the bench 8 times
  • Missed 11 games due to illness or injury
  • Not been selected when fit on 1 occassion

So of the 47 games he was available for, he has played a part in 80% of them.

We then go further back.

Thierry Henry, Robert Pires, Patrick Vieira and more were not at the level Havertz is when they joined.

In 1995 we broke our transfer record Dennis Bergkamp. Two years before he joined he was runner-up in the Ballon d’Or. 1992 he finished 3rd.

But the Bergkamp of ’95 was not the World Class talent of 1993.

His move to Italy had been a disaster and Inter Milan were looking to get rid after just two seasons.

Havertz time at Chelsea has not been the disaster that Bergkamp’s spell at Inter was.

We potentially have to go back to 1971 for the last time we signed a player who was at the top of his game for a rival club. Alan Ball.

Ball was the youngest man of England’s 1966 team. His performances at the World Cup saw Everton sign him from Blackpool. The transfer was a record fee paid to an English club.

As part of the “Holy Trinity”, Ball would play an instrumental part as Everton won the league in 1970.

The season after, Everton struggled (like Chelsea), and Arsenal won the double. In December 1971, Ball joined Arsenal for a record fee.

The current champions went to the previous champions and signed their best player.

Ball was 26-years-old at the time and at his peak. A few years after joining he would be named club captain and play over 200 games for Arsenal.For a long time he would also be Arsenal’s most capped England player.

In modern day terms, Alan Ball was a wonderkid who fulfiled his potential and became World Class.

In any other summer, we would be celebrating what a coup signing Havertz is. But with the focus on Rice, we have secured his transfer inconspicuously.

Arsenal’s team flying to Chelsea keeper Kepa Arrizabalaga’s wedding to take the promo photos barely caused a ripple in the media or on social media.

The way the Havertz deal was done was how all transfers should be done. Quickly, professionally and in the interest of all parties.

I am comfortable in saying that Kai Havertz is the biggest transfer Arsenal have done (in terms of signing a top player from a rival) since Alan Ball – let us know in the comments if you disagree.

Keenos