Omari Hutchinson warning for Ethan Nwaneri

The grass is usually not greener on the other side.

It is crazy that the future of a 16-year-old footballer with a single minute of professional playing time under his belt has become a national story. But that is exactly what has happened with Ethan Nwaneri.

Nwaneri became the youngest ever player to appear in the top flight of English football back in September when he came off the bench in second half stoppage time against Brentford.

At the time, Nwaneri was stalling over signing scholarship with Arsenal – and reports of Chelsea and Manchester City circulating.

Some felt that Mikel Arteta giving Nwaneri game time was to show that he had a path to the first team. Others claimed it was financially driven; playing a senior game (even just one) is taken into account when compensation is determined.

Nwaneri, who has been with Arsenal since he was 9-years-old, disappeared from the Arsenal first team scene after making his debut. He was not selected in another match day squad. Not even as Arteta rested and rotated for the Europa League and League Cup.

This Friday Nwaneri is free to sign scholarship terms with whoever he wants, and it is unlikely that team will be Arsenal.

Chelsea and Manchester City and still leading the way, and he is expected to sign on for whoever gives him the biggest deal. At just 16, it is sad that a player is focused so much on who will pay him the most rather than who will be best for his career.

City and Chelsea might dominate youth football, but this is more due what they invest in recruiting the best young players from around England. Both clubs pay huge money to these young talents.

But just because they have the best youth systems, it does not mean that they produce the best senior players.

The last Man City youth team prospect to go on to become a regular first team player for them was Phil Foden. He made his debut oin 2017.

Two other youth prospects saw some game time this season – Rico Lewis and Cole Palmer. Lewis certainly has the potential to become a squad player for City. Maybe more.

What is interesting about both Lewis and Palmer was they were not “recruited in” at a later age.

Palmer and Lewis both joined Manchester City at 8-years old. Like Foden, they have only ever been in Man City’s academy.

In that time, City have signed hundreds of kids at the age of 15/16 from clubs in and around England. Jadon Sancho is the only one to have made an impact – and he needed a move away to get his chance.

Chelsea are no different.

Non-league football is filled with players Chelsea poached from other clubs. They all follow the same path.

Chelsea sign them at 14/15/16, they dominate youth football, get loaned out 4 or 5 times, then drop down the leagues.

A lot was made about Chelsea’s youth system when they won the Champions League final in 2021. And it was impressive.

Chelsea’s match day squad contained Reece James, Mason Mount, Andreas Christensen, Callum Hudson-Odoi and Billy Gilmour. All of whom spent different times at the club. Tammy Abraham also saw a lot of game time that year.

By the end of this summer, James could be the only one plying his trade in a Chelsea shirt.

This explosion of Cobham talent was more by luck than design – a transfer ban in 2019 forced Frank Lampard to have to promote the likes of James and Mount, and rely on Abraham upfront. A year later, they had all progressed to become key components of Thomas Tuchel’s squad.

But as new players have come in under new owners Clearlake Capital, it is the academy players being discarded.

You would be very surprised if Mount, Ruben Loftus Cheek, Conor Gallagher, Hudson-Odoi or Trevoh Chalobah were still at the club next season.

Like City, there best young talents were with them as youngsters.

Lewis Hall, Gallagher, Mount, Loftus Cheek, James, Chalobah and Hudson-Odoi were all at the club as U8s.

Andreas Christensen is probably the last player recruited at a later age into the Cobham set-up to make an impact at the club.

Nwareni will not be the first teenager to leave Arsenal. In fact one made the exact same journey last season as Nwaneri

12 months ago, Omari Hutchinson decided his future was away from Arsenal and joined Chelsea (ironically he was released by them at 9-years-old)

Maybe it was because he feared he would get little game time at Arsenal with Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli on the wings. Or maybe it was down to money. The official line was that he just saw Chelsea as the better fit for his future.

Arsenal wanted to loan him out for a season to a Championship side to help with his development. Chelsea reportedly informed him that he will be part of the first team squad.

Last season, Hutchinson played jsut 2 games for Chelsea – a total of 49 minutes. It is likely he will now join a Championship side on loan.

He has basically wasted a year of his career by moving to Chelsea.

Had he agreed a new deal with Arsenal, he would have spent 2022/23 on loan and, if performances justified, could have been part of Arteta’s first team plans this year.

Instead he is going to be sent on loan a year later. And Chelsea have bought so many players in the last 12 months he will unlikely ever pull on their shirt again for a senior game.

We predicted exactly what would happen with Hutchinson 12 months ago.

Over the years we have also seen the likes Stephy Mavididi (Juventus) and Marcus McGuane (Barcelona) move to pastures new, turning down scholarship terms.

Nwaneri leaving will be a big story. It will be reported that we are losing one of our best young players and Arsenal will be highly criticised when he leaves.

Ignore the noise. Myles Lewis-Skelly has signed his scholarship. And many at the club beleive he is the better player.

Keenos

Saudi Pro League is dumping ground for unwanted European former-stars

In a recent blog, we spoke about the impact the Saudi Pro League could have on European football.

Since I wrote the blog, it has become clear how European clubs are using the Saudi Pro League – they are dumping unwanted players on huge wages on the Middle East nation.

Chelsea have recently attracted controversy due the relationship between the Public Investment Fund (PIF) of Saudi Arabia and their owners, Clearlake Capital.

PIF recently bought 4 Saudi Pro League clubs and are financing the recruitment drive. Questions were asked as to whether this was just a way to circumnavigate FFP with them targeting Chelsea players to help them get high earners off the books.

The truth is, every club in Europe is currently looking to dump older players they no longer want on Saudi Arabia, and Chelsea simply have a lot of players they do not currently want that fit the profile.

The problem a lot of clubs face when looking to move on a 30-something is finding a club to take on their wages. Arsenal faced this when trying to sell Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Mesut Ozil.

These sort players would have (likely) have signed a 5-year deal at their peak at around 28-years-old. They would be on huge wages. Come 30/31, they are beginning to decline and clubs begin to look for younger alternatives.

The problem is when a player in on £150k+ a week, and on the decline, there will be very few sides that would look to sign them.

The players, usually with 2-years still to go on their contract – would not be happy taking a pay cut to reflect their declining ability, and this leads to a stalemate.

Selling clubs either have to subsidise the salaries of players no longer on their books, or have to accept a pittance in transfer fees so that the buying club can then afford to match the wages.

So you might end up in a scenario where the buying team agrees to buy Player A, offering them £80k a week. The selling club will then subsidise the wages for the next two years, topping the player back up to their £150k contract. Basically spending over £7m across 2-years on wages for a player no longer at the club.

Alternatively, they will have to reduce their asking price by a similar amount so that the buying club can then pay their new acquisition a nice bonus that covers their wage drop.

So instead if receiving £30m, the selling club might have to accept a reduced £23m so that the players wage drop can be covered by the buying club.

The Saudi league has provided a solution to selling clubs problems.

They are matching (and in many cases increasing) players wages, whilst still offering clubs a decent transfer fee.

Take Thomas Partey.

Partey is on around £200k a week. Now 30-years-old and with his injury issues, no club will match that salary unless they “get him on the cheap”.

Juventus were (and still are?) sniffing around Partey, with a deal in the range of £17m mentioned. This low transfer fee would allow Juventus to match Partey’s wages.

And then you have Saudi Arabia.

The offer reportedly on the table from the Middle-East is £35m – almost twice as much. And Partey will still have his huge wages matched.

It therefore makes a lot of sense that Arsenal are encouraging bids from Saudi Arabia and will probably try and push Partey in that direction.

And that is what all clubs are currently doing – on the phone to superagents who are working on behalf of PIF to encourage bids for their unwanted players. I would not be surprised if Nicolas Pepe has been spoken about.

Chelsea are looking to move on Edouard Mendy, Romelu Lukaku, Kalidou Koulibaly and Hakim Ziyech. All are 30+ and on huge wages. Expected transfer fees for all ranges from £20-30m.

Inter Milan are to cash in by selling Marcelo Brozović. Another 30-year-old that will also go for a fee within that £20-30m.

Some players will still have ambitions to play top level football – Bernardo Silva, the aforementioned Lukaku and others. But if they do this, and seek a move elsewhere, they might have to accept the lower wages.

Selling clubs will now be saying to them “why would we accept a bid from a European club when a Saudi team is offering twice the fee”. That then puts the ball at the feet of the players as to where they want to go.

Stay in Europe, they will have to accept less wages which will enable the buying club to pay bigger transfer fees. Move to Saudi Arabia, the higher transfer fee will be paid and they get to keep their wages.

Whilst Saudi Arabia officials have been contacting clubs about players, I am sure the majority of the chatter is being instigated by European clubs. Official at Arsenal, Chelsea, Inter Milan and more contacting those working for PIF in an attempt to cash in on their unwanted, highly paid, ageing stars.

I imagine if the Saudi Pro League was relevant in 2020, Arsenal would have looked to sell them Aubameyang, Ozil, Shkodran Mustafi, Saed Kolasinac and more.

And this just highlights the hypocrisy in football.

Teams will try and block PIF from investing in Newcastle, with Human Rights claims, but will then court the oil money for their own benefit. But that is a blog for another day!

Enjoy your Tuesday.

Keenos

Havertz signing will put pressure on two Arsenal stars to up their game or be sold

You improve the squad on the previous season by signing better players than you currently have. Football is easy (note: I do also understand you can improve players currently in the squad as well).

I do not understand the “another Chelsea reject” argument when it comes to Kai Havertz.There is a huge difference between buying 30-something players (William Gallas, Petr Cech, David Luiz, Willian) and signing a 24-year-old regular German international about to enter his peak.

Havertz is an improvement on what we have. That is no debate.

We went into last season with Emile Smith Rowe and Fabio Vieira as our 2 main back up attacking options. Havertz is better than both.

Smith Rowe is a fabulous player, but his injury issues are a huge concern.

He admits himself that he has been playing with the same groin injury since he was 18-years-old. He turns 23 in a month…

The Englishman has played mainly on the wing for Arsenal during his senior career. There has always been a feeling his long-term future could end up playing inside, as an attacking 8 options. In recent weeks, there has been talk about Smith Rowe working hard in training to improve in this position.

Whereas Smith Rowe is a work in progress as an attacking 8, Havertz is off the shelf ready.

It is in that position that Havertz became one of the hottest prospects in Europe whilst at Bayern Leverkuson.

38 goals in 2 seasons from midfield saw Chelsea spend over £70million securing him back in 2020.

With the acquisition of Leandro Trossard, the left hand side is now locked down with the Belgium and Gabriel Martinelli. That has left us looking to buy some cover and competition on the right hand side for Bukayo Saka.

Havertz has also spent some of his career playing in Smith Rowe’s natural position – out wide. Naturally left footed, he is abetter “like for like” option to replace Saka when required with Arteta needing to change the attacking structure of the team.

Havertz is a better midfielder than Smith Rowe, a better winger than Smith Rowe, and a better forward/false 9. He also does not come with Smith Rowe’s injury issues.

Another player also under threat is Fabio Vieira.

A big money signing last summer, Vieira has not settled in the Premier League.

Last season he struggled for game time as Martin Odegaard maintained his form and fitness. There was just not much opportunity for Vieira to show us what he could do.

When Vieira did make it on the pitch, he looked shot of confidence and not up to it physically. I still think there is a player there and he clearly has great technique. But he needs to make big improvements in the gym and on the training pitch this summer.

Let me now ask you a question: If Odergaard picked up an injury, who would you rather replace him – Havertz or Vieira?

Now maybe you are realising why he is a good signing.

Havertz is levels above Smith Rowe and Vieira. And it is not even like he is that much older:

Havertz is just a year older than both Vieira and Smith Rowe. He is not the washed up old man that Willian, Cech and Luiz was.

It might not happen this summer, but I would be very surpised if we continue with Havertz, Vieira and Smith Rowe in the squad for too long. You would expect on of the two later players to be sold on.

Selling Smith Rowe for £40million would mean it has cost us a net £25million to upgrade to Havertz. That is fantastic business.

We began this blog by talking about how to improve the squad year on year:

Beginning of 2022/23: Saka, Martinelli, Odegaard, Vieira, Smith Rowe

Beginning of 2023/24: Saka, Martinelli, Odegaard, Havertz, Trossard

How about that for an upgrade?

Keenos