Tag Archives: Arsenal

Pointless Statistics

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am a stats man and many do have their place in football. I do follow the money ball theory and have read countless books on statistical analysis on football. But you can go too far with football, and as media outlets attempt to find the new thing they can end up inventing a statistic that is simply pointless.

Recently the BBC have created (or adopted) a statistic called “Expected Goals”. The idea being that it shows how many goals should have been scored against how many were scored.

This is pointless as all the matters is the goals actually scored.

Against Manchester United, Arsenal were expected to have scored 4.6 goals based on the chances. Manchester United 1.9 goals. Ignoring the fact that you can not score a decimal point of a goal, Manchester United scored 3 goals, and Arsenal 1.

Now I understand the stats surrounding chances created, shots on target, etc, but how the analysts decided Manchester United should only have scored 1.9 goals when all 3 of their chances were fairly routine is beyond me. It is a baffling statistic.

I have even seen a league table of expected goals – ie how the table would look if each match went to the expected goals rather than the actual. It is like those league tables which are altered to show results if shots that hit the woodwork went in. Or that Chelsea one from years ago which took out all goals by black players.

It is pointless.

At the end of the day, there is only one statistic that really matters, and that is the score at the end of the game.

Keenos

REVEALED: Who is Arsenal’s most influential attacking player?

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Quiz time: Which Arsenal player has the most combined goals and assists this season?

OK, it is a trick question as there are two players that currently lead the way.

Alexandre Lacazette has 8 goals and 1 assists – 9 in total. Alongside him is Aaron Ramsey with 3 goals and 6 assists.

No Arsenal player has more Premier League assists than Aaron Ramsey this season. An incredible statistic considering he does not take corner and free kicks.

He comes in for a lot of criticism, and it is often justified. He has had an up and down career at Arsenal, but his good form this season has gone under the radar.

Now you could argue that his job is to not get goals and assists. That by him bombing forward, getting into advanced positions, leaves a hole in behind him that Granit Xhaka has struggled to fill. But then he also leads the way in tackles and interceptions per game (excluding the defenders).

His problem is that he is not a naturally defensive player. He needs someone in behind him who will cover the ground, someone like N’Golo Kante would have worked perfect in tandem with Ramsey.

For much of his career, Ramsey has been a square peg in a round hole. Expected to do a defensive role in the team, when he actually wants to bomb forward and get involved.

His assist for Alexandre Lacazette against Manchester United was a great example of his ability to make perfectly timed runs into the box. His awareness to head back to the Frenchman was world class.

With both Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil to leave, maybe the time has come for Ramsey to move further up the field – his more natural position where he plays for Wales.

When I see that someone like Leon Goretzka is available on a free transfer, it makes me think that we should go all out for him to play central midfield, and move Aaron Ramsey further forward.

It is not about being cheap, it is about being sensible. Goretzka will become one of the best central midfielders in world football, and Ramsey has proven what he can do in more advanced positions. It would also leave us even more money available to buy someone to partner Ramsey behind Lacazette in the future.

Aaron Ramsey’s good form is probably a surprise to you all.

Keenos

What has happened to Alexis Sanchez?

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Arsenal lost. That’s it. We were already out of the title race before yesterday. The defeat changes nothing.

A disappointing loss in which Manchester United were clinical in their finishing – 3 shots; 3 goals – and Arsenal were simply wasteful.

We actually didn’t play too bad, but came out of the game with no points and the feeling that we were taken apart. As a mate said to me – no point talking about how well we played, how we put the pressure on. We got nothing from the game.

One player who was particularly bad was Alexis Sanchez.

When Sanchez and Ozil became “contract rebel’s” before the season started, a lot of people ran twitter polls on who they would rather stay.

The unanimous result was Alexis Sanchez. That fans felt that no matter what his situation was, he would perform, as he “loves playing football”.

Meanwhile Ozil was a lazy play who did not care.

Roll on 4 or 5 months and the feeling is much different. Everyone is now #TeamOzil.

It helps Ozil preformed terrific against Spurs, and in the defeat against Man U he was easily the best player on the pitch, but the reality is Sanchez has been poor this season.

Even before this season, I have been highly critical of the Chilean.

He is selfish, he is slow on the ball, he is greedy, he gives the ball away too often, he is a poor passer.

He often makes up for his deficiencies in goals – who cares if he gives the ball away 10 times in a game if he scores 2 goals?

Who cares if he is greedy if he bends a couple into the top corner?

The problem is when he isn’t scoring, his flaws are exposed. The flaws which led to Barcelona letting him go on the cheap.

People used to say Mikel Arteta’s legs have gone. But what for Sanchez? He no longer looks as quick, as sharp as he once was – this is his 4th season at Arsenal.

This is a player who is playing for a club for the 4th year in a row for the first time in his career.

How much has his contract affected him?

How much has failing to make the World Cup affected him?

Sanchez is not the same player as he once was. Maybe we should’ve let him go in the summer?

Keenos