England “1 month behind Germany” in coronavirus battle (and a return to football)

16th April – Germany announced 315 deaths from coronavirus.

Nearly a month later, the Bundesliga returns today with 6 games, albeit with a few tweaks and plenty of restrictions.

On Friday, many German states announced that bars and restaurants would be able to reopen once more under restrictions.

People from two separate households could share a table, but had to keep a distance of 1.5m from each other.

Further restrictions in Germany being lifted are in spite of the raising R rate – with coronavirus transmissions sitting in and around 1 for the last week. This is not seen as a problem by the German authorities.

“The number will always fluctuate, and as long as it remains around 1.0, that is considered a stagnation and not an increase” Lars Schaade, vice president of the Robert Koch Institute

Back in the UK, 384 deaths were announced yesterday in all ssettings. 325 of which were in hospitals.

It has to be remembered that this is now how many deaths occurred the previous day, but how many deaths were reported. These deaths go back to as far as 10th April.

Just 45 of the deaths announced yesterday happened in an English hospital on Thursday – although this will rise due to reporting lag.

The statistics put England almost exactly a month behind Germany – meaning that we could see a return to football mid-June.

The Premier League originally pencilled in the weekend of 12th June , but this has now reportedly been put back by a week to 19th June.

With most teams having 9 games left to play, this leave would leave just 12 days to complete the season. Football co toning beyond 30th June will create all sorts of problems when it comes to player contracts.

As we reduce lockdown restrictions, expect the R rate to rise as it has in Germany. But do not be worried about this. As long as it stays around 1, we are on the right path.

Using German as a road map, as long as we follow them down the same road from the 354 deaths announced yesterday; we should be in a position to have a return to sport mid-June.

Hopefully mid-June we might be able to have a pint with a mate in a pub as well.

It’s not the football I am missing; it’s going to football.

Ps: my view is the season should be cancelled; even if they decide to award Liverpool the title

Keenos

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