A dip in form in an otherwise upward trend of a season

Anyone that has ever bought shares or traded crypto would have seen pullbacks.

This is when graph shows a moderate dip in an otherwise upward trend.

Experienced traders will know not to worry about this dip. Not to panic sell. In fact many will “buy the dip” and use the lower price as an opportunity to buy more.

Often pullbacks occur when a share is over performing. The pullback is then a re-adjustment of the share pricing, bringing it back down to where it should probably be whilst still showing an upward trend.

Arsenal’s recent form feels like a pull back. A dip that we should not be concerned about.

After losing the first 3 games of the season, Arsenal averaged 1.53 points per game in the first 13 matches of the season.

This would have seen Arsenal hit 58 points – 7/8 place form. We were clearly underperforming (our par position is currently 5th).

The next 13 games we averaged 2.38ppg. This is title winning form (Man City are averaging 2.38ppg).

This led to a huge upward trend. Across that 13 games we overperformed (we are not a title winning team).

Our upward trend had gained pace, outperforming predictions across the 13 game period. But across the 28 game period up until the Crystal Palace game, things looked a little different.

Prior to the Palace game, we were averaging 1.89ppg – top 4 form. A small overachievement considering our par position should be 5th (taken from us having the 5th highest wage bill).

In the last 3 games we have failed to get a point. This is the fall back. The dip.

We are back to averaging 1.74 points per game. That is the form that will take you to 5th or 6th. Where we all expected us to be at the beginning of the season.

Taken in isolation, the form in the last 3 games (5 of you extend to Liverpool) is awful. But the general trend is still upwards.

Yes, the dip is disappointing but you can not keep outperforming expectation forever. At some point there will be a pullback.

The trick is when the pullback happens, you don’t overreact. You hold on what to have, widen that chart and focus on the longer term upward trend.

We are still on course for 5th or 6th place finished, and to gain more points and score more goals than the previous 2 seasons.

Throw in the youngest team in the Premier League and there is plenty to still be positive about.

Do not worry about his dip. The trend is still upwards.

Keenos

4 thoughts on “A dip in form in an otherwise upward trend of a season

  1. sm

    As a financial services professional, this is not a good analogy. That graph doesn’t represent this season it represents the last 16 years, pretty much since we moved stadiums. If I told a client they had to wait 16 years to get their money back on the stock market, they would all leave in their droves! Fortunately in the real world, investments have never underperformed as badly as Arsenal has in recent years.

    Like

    Reply
    1. ClockEndRider

      SM,
      I think you’re taking the graph a bit too literally. Keenos clearly meant it as an example rather 5han a direct comparison to this season. The point Keenos is making is a good one, but the graph would show three large dips but an overall upward trend across the season.

      Like

      Reply
      1. SM

        What upward trend? We have just lost three games in a row against teams we should be at least picking up one point against, with Brighton no excuses it has to be a home win. We have now lost 11 games this season. The only reason it feels like any sort of uptrend is last season we had our worst season for over 35 years, with our worst home record for over 90 years. That is nothing to compare with IMO. Arteta has been found to be tactically nieve, outthought by Vieira and Potter in recent weeks. I for one would welcome a homecoming for Paddy, at least he has done his apprenticeship elsewhere now and is better for the experience. This whole Arteta project was an experiment. If we finish outside the top 6 this season he has to go. Even if we qualify for the Europa League the recruitment this summer is critical, the club took their foot off the pedals in January and are paying the price for it now.

        Like

  2. ClockEndRider

    You really can’t see a significant improvement over the last 3- 5 years performances? On top of having taken a serious hack to the forest of dross previous managers accumulated? And brought in some young, very good players who have already improved and are highly likely to improve considerably more? With a vastl6 improved atmosphere in the ground, due in no small part to the evidence before match day fans eyes? Getting out of the morass into which we had slipped will take time. The next building block is further strengthening over the summer. Not everyone will be on board. I am.

    Like

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.