It has not happened for The Arsenal this season.

Whether it is down to bad luck in decisions, a run of injuries to key players, not having a deep enough squad, or us running out of a bit of steam after the last two years, we have dipped below the level of expectation Mikel Arteta has got us to.

It is easy to overreact. And we have seen that online.

Despite us being second in the league, and through to the last 16 of the Champions League having finished 3rd in the elongated group, Arteta is coming under increasing criticism from fans – although I feel like it is a noisy minority who mainly live on line or use football as a way to infect others with the negativity they carry.

The same old faces have come out from the rock they have been hiding under since Covid. The ones who built online reputations, fan groups and YouTube channel off us “finishing top 4 and only winning the FA Cup” under Arsene Wenger.

Back then, many of them led with the rhetoric that “we do not expect to win the title, we only want to compete”. They have now moved the goal posts.

We competed for the last two years, and we looked like we were competing this year. But that is not enough. They now expect us to win the title. It shows that their agenda is not about Arsenal being successful, but about creating a narrative that allows them to moan, to gain attention for themselves.

Being 2nd in the league is not a “stackable offence”, like many are saying, nor is it “criminal”. We are not in the position Tottenham or Manchester United are. And you do not rip up everything Arteta and the club ave worked so diligently on for 5-years just because a couple of drunks are unhappy and using social media to vent.

Winning the Premier League is not easy. And if you are holding Arsenal to such a high bar that “anything under winning the title is failure”, then I would suggest looking at your own life and begin holding yourself to the same principal. Fans who want Arsenal to have Mamba Mentality, but do not strive for constant self-improvement and excellence in their own life.

To become champions ahead of Manchester City during the Pep Guardiola era), two things need to happen:

• Manchester City need to have an off season
• Nothing needs to go wrong for yourself.

Manchester City have been amazing under Pep.

Six league titles in 8 years. 4-in-a-row. The treble. Centurians. Bar an unbeaten season, they have done it all. They only seasons they failed to win the title, they went off the boil massively.

In Pep’s first season, Manchester City got 78 points as Chelsea won the league with 92. Then in 2019/20, they got 81 points as Liverpool won the league. In the 7 seasons they won the title, they averaged 93 points. And that would have been higher had they not taken their foot off the pedal once the title was secured to focus on the Champions League / FA Cup.

During the Premier League era, the average points needed to win the league is 87.8 points. Pep changed all of that and you now need 95+ to almost guarantee finishing above them. Unless they have a poor season.

To go into a season expecting to get 95+ points is unrealistic for a normal team, built on a self-sustainable model, is unrealistic. Liverpool are the only team to have achieved this, and even then they failed to win the league title on one of those occasions.

So what the likes of Arsena, Liverpool and others are setting themselves up for is not to be the dominant force of Manchester City, but to be best of the rest so that when City have that dip in form, they are best positioned to take advantage.

And to be best positioned to take advantage, you need the second factor – nothing to go against you.

Injuries and refereeing decisions are a huge factor in a Premier League campaign. Anyone that says they are “just excuses” clearly do not have an understanding as to how these can affect the game.

In the last two seasons, Arsenal have had a lot of luck with injuries.

We lost William Saliba and Thomas Partey at key times, which certainly contributed to our downfall, but on the whole we did not have a lot of injuries. Likewise not too many decisions went against us.

This year we have had an injury crisis and are currently without 4 of our 6 attacking players. It is also well documented how often we have been on the odd end of refereeing decision making:

The red card fo Declan Rice whilst 1-nil at home to Brighton
The red card to Leandro Trossard whilst 1-nil up at Manchester City
William Saliba’s red card away to Bournemouth
The Brighton penalty whilst 1-nil up on the South-Coast.

These are refereeing decisions that have not been repeated in the Premier League, despite there being a whole host of similar incidents. It does leave a bitter taste in your mouth.

If you are chasing the league, you can not afford to drop points due to referee decisions. That is up to 8 points that could be directly contributed to poor decision making (although the Bournemouth one may well have ended up in a draw reducing it to 6).

Meanwhile, Liverpool have not been on the end of any poor decisions this season. Players have not received 2nd bookings for kicking the ball away or clear yellow card fouls.

Now I am not saying there is a conspiracy. It just highlights how poor and inconsistent Premier League Match Officials are. and this year it has been Arsenal who have been “punished”, whilst Liverpool have not. Things could be so different in the league table if they had received some of our decisions, and we received their lack of controversial decisions.

We have also lost Martin Odegaard for 3 months. Bukayo Saka has been out since December. Ben White has been out so long people have forgotten about him. Takehiro Tomiyasu has hardly been seen. Gabriel Martinelli out for over a month. Kai Havertz will miss the rest of the season. And Gabriel Jesus has struggled to stay fit.

Liverpool meanwhile have managed to keep the likes of Mohamad Salah, Virgil van Dijk, Luiz Diaz, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Alexis McAllister fit for the majority of the season.

Now you could say this is down to better squad preparation, or that Arne Slott rotates his players better. But the truth is it is down to luck.

We have been very lucky in the last two seasons with injuries. This season we have been very unlucky. Meanwhile Liverpool have had some poor luck with injuries in the last two years. This year they have not had anyone meaningful out for any meaningful amount of time.

Even just the one injury of Saka. Imagine if it was Salah not seen since December and how that would have impacted Liverpool.

Saka and Salah are both teams special players. their individual match winners. To win the title, you need to keep them fit for the entire season. This season Salah has looked fitter than ever, whilst Saka picked up his first long-term injury of his career.

How different would the league table have looked if it was Salah and not Saka who picked up the injury?

Liverpool have been excellent this season. They have lost just once in the league, and topped the Champions League. But they are only on course for 90 points. Were it not for Manchester City’s fall off, they would unlikely be champions with that figure.

Arsenal were in a very similar position to Liverpool (points-wise), in the last 2 seasons and failed to win the title. the reason being is City found top gear and became nearly unbeatable in the 2nd half of both seasons. This year they are having their off-season.

So despite keeping everyone fit, and not having a decision go against them, Liverpool are not much better than Arsenal have been in the last 2-years. And are only injuries and decisions better than Arsenal this. The only difference in is that City area having their off-season in Pep’s fitness cycle.

And unfortunately for us, despite us being best positioned to take advantage of any City drop off in the last two years, it is Liverpool best positioned now.

Arteta’s dream plan was to make Arsenal “best of the rest”. And we have done that in the last two seasons. Unfortunately, this season, it is Liverpool best positioned to take advantage in the Manchester City drop off, and once again we will be the bridesmaid.

Keenos