Author Archives: keenosafc

Arsenal DO have money to spend in January

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“Arsenal have no money to spend in January” has been continually written this summer by, many journalists. This theory, however, is a miss-truth

Arsenal do have money to spend in January.

In years go by, we have hear Ivan Gazidis say “we are keeping our powder dry”. Last summer we certainly did not keep our powder dry for January. We spent almost every penny that was available.

In total, we spent over £70million. With just a couple of million coming the other in, we had the 4th highest net spend in the league. Only West Ham, Fulham, Chelsea and Liverpool spent more.

Due to a lack of player sales and consistently poor player sales over a long period, Arsenal were unable to generate further funds to buy in more players.

Manchester United, Manchester City & Tottenham all spent less than us once player sales were taken into account.

It should be seen as a positive that Arsenal did not keep some of their summer transfer budget aside to buy someone in January. It meant that we started 2018/19 with the best squad that we financially could.

Despite this, we still have money to spend in January.

Where will this money come from? You ask.

It is fairly simple. We have a budget. We know what money is coming in (commercial revenue, gate receipts, TV money, etc) and what money is going out (wages, player amortisation, running costs of club). It is the money that is in between that determines if you can increase expenditure (buy more players, increase wages) or whether you have to cut costs (sell players).

Arsenal will already know what they have available to buy players in the summer. The money available in January will come from that budget.

What Arsenal need to do, however, is spend sensibly.

Every penny spent in January is one penny less to spend in the summer. That means we need to buy the right the player. Someone who we would have bought regardless of what transfer window it is. What we will not be doing is panic buying. Going for a short term option that then takes out key funds to purchase preferred players.

Lets put it another way.

Say Sven, Raul and Unai have discussed things. They have put £40million aside to buy a central defender.

They will not care if that £40million is spent in January or the summer. What they care about is it is spent on the right player. Someone who will perform in an Arsenal shirt for years to come.

What they will not do is spend £10million on a stop gap defender, who might only be required for 6 months.

This £10million signing would then reduce the budget for the summer. So instead of going for a £40million defender in the summer, we can only go for a £30million one.

So Arsenal do have money to spend this month. It just needs to be spent on the right player; and not a short term stop gap.

Keenos

Real News: The FA Cup draw; Fake News: Arsenal transfers

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Morning. Everyone else flued up?

The only real Arsenal news over the last 24 hours was the FA Cup draw.

It sums it up when the draw was more interesting than the Round 3 games. Although watching Liverpool get knocked out was enjoyable.

As the balls were pulled out, Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester United remained in the perspex bowl. 10 teams left. 8 teams left. 6 teams left. 4 teams left. The aforementioned plus Crystal Palace.

All that was important at this stage is we were drawn at home, regardless of who it was against.

A home tie against Manchester United is easier than an away game in South London.

Due to playing Cardiff City in the league on the Tuesday, Arsenal will play Man U on either Friday night or Saturday. It will be picked for TV.

It will be interesting to see what sort of side both teams put out, as they both play Premier League games on the following Tuesday. I imagine they will be very changed to the sides put out in the 3rd round.

Whilst the FA Cup is real news, there has been plenty of fake news in the last couple of days. Mainly to do with transfers.

It is that time of year when journalists earn their coin, fabricating (or exaggerating) transfer stories. Articles for clicks. Clicks for revenue.

In the last couple of days, Arsenal have had a £63m bid accepted by Real Madrid for James Rodriguez, agreed a £200,000 a week contract with Yannick Carrasco, approached Juventus for Medhi Benatia, been turned down by Pepe, and are set to lose out on Denis Suarez to West Ham as we can not afford the £20m fee.

What a load of rubbish.

So on one hand they are saying we are offering a club record transfer fee for a player who Bayern Munich have first option on (at half the price – they would just trigger the clause, then sell him to us. Easy profit), that we are offering a contract to a player far in access to what was on the table for Aaron Ramsey, but then there are reports we have no money. Want to loan a player from Barcelona, not sign him.

No one really knows what is going on. Not journalists, not fake ITKs who pretend to be journalists, not your mate Dave down the Dog and Duck.

Ultimately all these people are doing is trying to get attention (a bit like the idiot who moaned about Joe Willock after the teenager scored 2 goals for the club he loves in the FA Cup).

The last thing to talk about this morning is that lot up the road.

In an interesting interview, Mauricio Pochettino discusses parallels between his situation and Arsene Wenger’s.

Now ignore Pochettino’s complete lack of success compared to Wenger (or any manager to have won a trophy in English football), some interesting points were made.

Pochettino talks about an “unfair” expectation. That it is unrealistic to be expected to compete with the likes of Manchester City and Liverpool when you have huge financial constraints due a new stadium.

The most interesting part of the interview was when he talks about his future. He says he wants to be at Tottenham for 20 years, but then the doubt creeps in.

‘My only hope if I have the opportunity to talk with him is to ask if it was worth it. I don’t know what he would say. I would like to ask.”

He is wondering if it is worthwhile forgoing personal success for offers elsewhere where trophies are guaranteed (Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, PSG). Whether it is worthwhile trying to build something over a long period, only to be continually criticised for fans for perceived failure.

Pochettino is clearly talking about his own future.

Wenger turned down the likes of Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich and PSG whilst at Arsenal.

At all of these clubs he would have made more money, and had a better chance of winning trophies then he did at Arsenal. But he remained loyal. Kept faith in what he was doing. Backed himself to return the club to glory.

Would he say it was worth it? I do not know. But if Pochettino is already wondering if it is worthwhile staying, then he is also thinking about leaving…

A nice week with no football. A chance to recover after the hectic Christmas period. No boozing and get rid of this cold.

Keenos

Double deal would represent “solid January” for Arsenal

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Transfer speculation seems to be intensifying over Arsenal signing Denis Suarez and Medhi Benatia before the end of January.

Whilst neither player would be top of many fans list, and plenty would complain that the club are “recruiting on the cheap” both signings would actually represent a solid transfer window.

On Denis Suarez, I have seen very little of the Spaniard. However he has previously played for Unai Emery at Sevilla, and was signed by Barcelona under Raul Sanllehi. Both men would know a lot more about the player than someone on social media.

I have seen him described as a “Iniesta-lite” which is certainly not mean as an insult considering that Iniesta was one of the greatest midfielders of his generation.

The comparison is more about the style of play. That Suarez likes to keep the ball moving, is comfortable on it, able to create space and create chances for others. Capable of playing in all 3 positions behind the striker, he was once named Manchester City Young Player of the Year.

Barcelona signed him in 2016 with the view of him being Iniesta’s replacement. It has not worked out for him during his second spell at Barcelona.

With Aaron Ramsey set to leave the club, Arsenal need a back up number 10, providing cover for Mesut Ozil. At just £20million, he would represent good value for money.

And good value for money is key.

With Arsenal set not to get a fee for Ramsey, we need to replace him without taken too much out of the pot. We do not want to go and spend big money on an Ozil understudy when we need a first team central defender, left back and winger.

Another thing to take into account is salary.

Suarez is reportedly only on £60,000 a week. That is £50,000 less than the reported £110,000 is on. I imagine Suarez would not be getting a significant pay rise.

Were Suarez to join on a 5 year deal, he would cost Arsenal around £7.12m a year (amortised transfer fee + wages). Ramsey currently costs £5.72m a year (just salary). The financial impact of replacing Ramsey with Suarez is minimal.

The second deal to keep an eye on is Mehdi Benatia.

Arsenal have been linked with the Moroccan  central defender for a number of years – way back in 2013 when he left Udinese for Roma. I doubt a year has gone by when we have not been linked with him.

The rumour doing the rounds is that Arsenal would let Ramsey go to Juventus in January (not cup tied in the Champions League) if they get Benatia in return.

At 31-years-old, many fans would rightly be sceptical about the deal. At face value, it would feel like the Henrikh Mkhitaryan / Alexis Sanchez deal again. That Arsenal are just happy getting anything, anyone, for a player set to leave on a free in the summer.

It would be another defender who is 30+ to go alongside Laurent Koscielny and Sokratis. Another short term option like the Greek and Stephan Lichtsteiner.

I have long had the opinion that Arsenal should not panic buy a central defender in January. That we should save our money for the summer, sell Shkodran Mustafi and Calum Chambers, and invest the £50m we get for the pair into a first choice, first class central defender.

However circumstances change, and Benatia would not be a panic buy.

I saw us going into next season with a new central defender, Sokratis, Rob Holding, Laurent Koscielny and Konstantinos Mavropanos. However, having broken down twice since his return from injury, Koscielny is clearly a busted flush.

It is time for the club to thank him for his service, and allow him the freedom to find a new club in the summer.

That would mean we need two central defenders.

Benatia would not be coming in as a long term option in the middle, but as a mid-term replacement for Koscielny.

As he would not cost a penny, we would still have a full budget available in the summer to buy a long term central defender.

That would leave us with the options next season of new CB, Sokratis, Benatia, Holding, Mavropanos (in no particular order).

We would basically have two experienced defenders, and two younger guys.

In the short term, Benatia makes sense.

Holding is out for the season, Koscielny needs to be written off, and Mustafi has struggled with injuries this season. Mavropanos is also yet to play, and has only 3 senior games to his name in England (one which he got sent off in). Koscielny could have covered in the short term (ie until the end of the season), but it looks like he is no longer capable of doing that.

Losing Ramsey in January, signing Suarez and Benatia, a total spend of £20million. Plenty in the pot to buy another central defender, a left back and a winger in the summer.

Get them both done, our squad is stronger, both are more than a 6-month option, and both are available to play in the Europa League.

Trust Unai. Trust Sven. Trust Raul.

Keenos