Author Archives: keenosafc

5 Arsenal Books for Christmas

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A lot of people have helped to promote our little blogs and shops during the last 10 years and never asked or expected for anything in return. A few gents that have helped me have written books on The Arsenal. Written by Arsenal fans for Arsenal fans, these will make an excellent Christmas present.

Arsenal: The Complete Record by Josh James; Andy Kelly; Mark Andrews

Arsenal: The Complete Record is the definitive account of one of English Football’s pioneering institutions. Collated by Josh James, Andy Kelly and Mark Andrews, this exhaustive study details every game, campaign, player and manager in the Gunners’ history up to the 2017/18 season. This record of one of English football’s great names charts every moment since 1886, including season by season accounts of every season, player profiles and many other details of the Gunners’ illustrious history. An indispensable addition to the library of every Arsenal fan including exclusive new detail on the real manager who led the club to the first Division in 1904.

Arsenal : The Complete Record is available from Amazon:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Arsenal-Josh-James-Kelly-Andrews/dp/1909245755/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1539119617&sr=8-1&keywords=arsenal+complete+record

Royal Arsenal – Champions Of The South by Mark Andrews; Andy Kelly; Tim Stillman

Mark Andrews and Andy Kelly, along with editor Tim Stillman, uncover how Royal Arsenal between 1886-1993 grew to become the Champions of the South – encapsulating the football lives of the founders, players, administrators and supporters of the forerunners of The Arsenal. The location of the initial Dial Square game is revealed, how the supporters responded to their team, and the real story of Royal Arsenal becoming professional, which is a fascinating tale of how working men repelled the rapacious landlord of their ground, and at the same time, put one over the old boys’ network who ran the local Football Associations. A history of intrigue, underhand dealings, drunkenness  and sham-ateurism in Victorian era Plumstead.

Royal Arsenal – Champions Of The South is available from Legends Publishing:
https://www.legendspublishing.net/product/royal-arsenal-champions-of-the-south/

Arsene’s Double Double By Dave Seager

The author (Dave Seager) has chosen to deliver his eulogy to the early success and scintillating football given to Arsenal by Wenger in an entirely unconventional style. Yes the tribute is entirely in rhyming verse, with all the iconic moments illustrated cartoon style.
However, don’t let the quirky writing medium for you. Every aspect of Wenger’s two League and Cup Doubles is covered. The key signings, the pivotal matches, the footballing style and of course the players that delivered the success with such panache.

Arsene’s Double Double is available from Legends Publishing:
https://www.legendspublishing.net/product/double-double/

Almost Invincible – The Class of 1991 By Dan Betts

In 2004, Arsenal achieved footballing immortality after going through an entire season unbeaten. That team would forever be known as ‘The Invincibles’, but 13 years beforehand, there was another Arsenal team who should have achieved that accolade first. George Graham’s title winning team of 1990/91 lost just one game in an amazing season – having to overcome some unbelievable set-backs in order to win the Championship.

The team’s inspirational captain, Tony Adams, being sent to prison, a more rigorous fixture schedule, a mid-match brawl that led to the only points deduction to have ever been given to a club – before or since –  are just some of the crazy circumstances that the Arsenal team of 90/91 had to overcome.

This book will take you through every facet of that incredible season, from the new signings, the pre-season build up and in depth league and cup match coverage combine to show readers why the Class of ‘91 should stand shoulder to shoulder with the Invincibles – and why they should perhaps be considered equals.

Almost Invincible – The Class of 1991 is available from Legends Publishing:
https://www.legendspublishing.net/product/almost-invincible-arsenal-the-class-of-1991/

Theo Give Us a Ball: A Life in Football by Theo Foley & Paul Foley

Theo details the highs and lows of professional football in a bygone age. From kicking a ball about on the streets of 1950s’ Dublin to captaining a First Division team during the 1960s and becoming assistant manager at Millwall and Arsenal, this book provides a fascinating insight into football in the days when a love of the game came before wealth and fame.

During his time at Highbury, Theo became a local legend and fans would chant ‘Theo, give us a ball,’ to which he duly obliged. In this honest account, Theo reveals the highs and lows of his life in football and shares his memories of working with some of the football greats of the past

Theo give us a ball: A life in football is available from Amazon:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Theo-Give-Us-Ball-Football/dp/191147619X

Momentum continues to boost Arsenal

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“What an arrogant team selection” I saw someone comment just before kick off on Sunday.

90 minutes later Arsenal had won 5-1.

No Mesut Ozil; Aaron Ramsey, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Sokratis on the bench.

I can see why some were a little worried about a “weak” side prior to kick off, but it perhaps showed a lack of faith in the manager who has had a fabulous start to his Arsenal’s career.

I saw some people compare it to an Arsene Wenger-era line up. This baffled me. Wenger is gone. Support the new regime. The new team.

The reality of the starting XI was it only 3 or 4 players shy of its strongest line up (depending on if you think Ramsey is in the strongest XI).

Ozil was out with a back strain, and Aubameyang and Ramsey both also missed mid week (there has been a cold flying about). Sokratis has also been managing a slight knee injury that he picked up against Everton a couple of weeks ago.

So the XI that Emery put out was the strongest, fittest XI available.

The fact that the side brushed away an albeit poor Fulham side without key players shows the confidence flowing through the side right now. And it is not just the first team that is riding high.

Momentum is such a big thing in sport.

At the weekend Lewis Hamilton won the Japanese Grand Prix. It was his 4th win in a row. Meanwhile Sebastian Vettel finished 6th, and has failed to make the top 2 in the last 4 races. It puts the British driver in a position where he could win the title at next race at Austin.

Hamilton has all the momentum, Vettel has none of it.

Arsenal are similar at this moment in time. We are not particularly playing much better than last season, but the momentum is with the side, leading us to 9 wins in a row.

Last season, conceding just before half-time to go in at 1-1, we would have capitulated in the second half. Just like we would not have hung on against Cardiff, Newcastle and Everton to take the victory. But winning breeds confidence, and the momentum that go’s with that is as important as any tactics and motivational pre-game speeches.

8 games into the season and we sit in 4th place; just 2 points off top.

Up next is a two week international break. Hopefully this does not break our momentum. When we return on October the 22nd, it will be Leicester at home, a good opportunity to make it 10 wins in a row. Sporting, Crystal Palace and Blackpool in the League Cup follow that before a home game against Liverpool.

That Liverpool game will really show where we are this season and what we can expect. Win, and we can start looking higher than top 4. Perhaps not fully in the title race as Manchester City look fantastic, but certainly in the race to be “best of the rest”.

Lose and the media will jump on top of us. Point out that our 3 games against the top sides have ended in defeat. Our target then realistically is 4th.

If we can go into that Liverpool game still on the coat tails of Manchester City, we will still be brimming in confidence.

What we are learning in recent weeks is that we need to trust the new manager. We need to trust his team selection. And we need to trust that he knows what he is doing.

Remove the negativity of years gone past and jump aboard the new Arsenal train. We are a club going places.

It feels good being an Arsenal fan again.

Keenos

xG’s: Why it is flawed and pointless

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Over the last few days I have had a few debates with people as to why the “expected goals” (xG) statistic is pointless. It seems there are plenty who defend it.

To work out a team’s xG for a match, every shot must be analysed and given an “Expected goal value” (EGV).

EGV is the probability that any given shot will end up as a goal.

As Patrick Lucey, director of data science at STATS, explains, EGV is based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from, the proximity of defenders, the nature of the attack (i.e a direct free-kick or a penalty). The EGV of a shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league, so it expects for instance that a shot from 10 yards out plum in front of goal with no defenders nearby has a high chance of ending up as a goal.

People then use this statistic to highlight sides who are over performing or under performing.

One journalist from the Mirror recently wrote an article stating that Arsenal should only actually have scored 11 goals this season, not the 19 we have actually scored. And should be mid table.

Some outlets are actually printing a weekly xG table in an attempt to highlight where sides will be based on if shots that are expected to go in did, and vice versa. Arsenal are currently 11th in the league based on expected points.

The glaring issue with xG it is that it assumes every player is born equally.

The xG value of shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league.

It puts the same value on a chance going in regardless of if it is Alexandre Lacazette taking a shot or Yaya Sanogo.

And it assumes the same with a goal keeper.

It does not account for David de Gea being a better goal keeper than Manuel Almunia . It assumes that a shot is just as likely to beat both.

So Sanogo against de Gea is given the exact same value as Lacazette against Almunia.

Football is all about exceptional talents. It is what separates a £50m striker or a £80m goal keeper from one that costs £5m. It is why Manchester City top the league and Newcastle are bottom. Why Sergio Aguero outscores Joselu.

Lionel Messi has “outperformed” his xG prediction throughout his career. That is because he isn’t average. He is the greatest player of his generation. He should not be compared to the average within the league.

As soon as you start disregarding individual talent and assume that everyone is the same, your analysis becomes flawed.

So Arsenal are performing above what their xG believes they should have scored.

Perhaps the truth is that in Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang; we just have above average strikers?

Ultimately, xG is pointless. It means nothing. It is a spreadsheet which, after a game, “predicts” what should have happened based on the law of averages. Not actually what happened.

And it is what happened that is ultimately important.

A world class goal keeping performance, a keeper letting the ball through his legs, a striker missing a tap in or scoring a worldie. A beach ball entering the field of play. These are all actual events. Events an algorithm can not predict.

If you wish to give weight to xG’s, that is your prerogative. But I am going to live in a world of actual goals. Actual results. A world that rewards the exceptional talents over the average.

xG is pointless.

Keenos