Category Archives: Arsenal

Being top 4 for four games artificially raised Arsenal fans expectations

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Before the season started, most fans talked about our target was to finish 6th; and with it a return to European football.

When the transfer window shut – with players shipped out and no-one bought in – Arsenal were 6th in the league.

At the time of writing this blog. We are 6th in the league. So why all the negativity?

At the beginning of the season, no one was really speaking of a top 4 finish.

When the transfer window shut, no one was speaking of a top 4 finish.

It is only after we were 4th in the league for just four game weeks in a row that we began talking about 4th.

History has now been re-written with fans blaming Edu and Arteta for failing to make signings in January which cost us too 4. But we were not looking at top 4 in January.

The irony is, it is those players Edu and Arteta backed in January, took the risk on, that drove us to show title winning form and climb the table into 4th.

Did the post-January form give us (including me) false hope that we were better than what we was? Clearly it did.

So Arsenal are back in 6th. Where we all expected us to be at the beginning of the season. Where we were when we let Aubameyang leave. And where we will probably finish at the end of the season.

With the youngest squad in England and a return of European football, we can build from him.

In the summer go and back the 4 or 5 new signings we need. Add to what is a talented and ambitious young squad. And then the target is top 4.

Rome wasn’t built in a day.

Keenos

A dip in form in an otherwise upward trend of a season

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Anyone that has ever bought shares or traded crypto would have seen pullbacks.

This is when graph shows a moderate dip in an otherwise upward trend.

Experienced traders will know not to worry about this dip. Not to panic sell. In fact many will “buy the dip” and use the lower price as an opportunity to buy more.

Often pullbacks occur when a share is over performing. The pullback is then a re-adjustment of the share pricing, bringing it back down to where it should probably be whilst still showing an upward trend.

Arsenal’s recent form feels like a pull back. A dip that we should not be concerned about.

After losing the first 3 games of the season, Arsenal averaged 1.53 points per game in the first 13 matches of the season.

This would have seen Arsenal hit 58 points – 7/8 place form. We were clearly underperforming (our par position is currently 5th).

The next 13 games we averaged 2.38ppg. This is title winning form (Man City are averaging 2.38ppg).

This led to a huge upward trend. Across that 13 games we overperformed (we are not a title winning team).

Our upward trend had gained pace, outperforming predictions across the 13 game period. But across the 28 game period up until the Crystal Palace game, things looked a little different.

Prior to the Palace game, we were averaging 1.89ppg – top 4 form. A small overachievement considering our par position should be 5th (taken from us having the 5th highest wage bill).

In the last 3 games we have failed to get a point. This is the fall back. The dip.

We are back to averaging 1.74 points per game. That is the form that will take you to 5th or 6th. Where we all expected us to be at the beginning of the season.

Taken in isolation, the form in the last 3 games (5 of you extend to Liverpool) is awful. But the general trend is still upwards.

Yes, the dip is disappointing but you can not keep outperforming expectation forever. At some point there will be a pullback.

The trick is when the pullback happens, you don’t overreact. You hold on what to have, widen that chart and focus on the longer term upward trend.

We are still on course for 5th or 6th place finished, and to gain more points and score more goals than the previous 2 seasons.

Throw in the youngest team in the Premier League and there is plenty to still be positive about.

Do not worry about his dip. The trend is still upwards.

Keenos

It feels the same as 2018/19 – but it is all very different

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Tottenham gave us a glimmer of up losing at home time Brighton in the early kick off.

By 5pm that hope was diminished after we lost to Southampton.

On another day, Arsenal would have scored 3 or 4. But lacking in form and facing an inform keeper we went down one to nothing.

The end of this season is feeling very much like the end of 2018/19.

Top 4 in our hands, only to let it slip in the closing stages

In the 2018/19 run in, we failed to beat the likes of Crystal Palace, Brighton, Leicester City, Tottenham, Wolves and Everton.

This season it is a similar standard (and names) that have caused our downfall – Palace, Brighton and Southampton.

There is a reason why Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester United are all battling out for 4th whilst Chelsea are clear in 3rd – and Manchester City and Liverpool competing for the top – it is the results against those mid-table teams.

But whilst this season is beginning to mirror 2018/19, is does also feel very different.

Most of us had us down for 5th or 6th at the start of the season.

But we now have a squad that we can build on rather than having shit we need to sell before we buy.

In the summer of 2019 we blogged a lot about how many under performing players we had – the likes of Ozil, Mustafi, Bellerin, Sokratis, Koscielny, Iwobi, Kolasinac and more.

It felt like there was more players on the “sell” (or deadwood”) list than the keep.

Right now there is a lot more positivity despite our form as it feels like we are a club going somewhere.

We have consistently put out the youngest team in the Premier League this year; and you can probably count the “deadwood” on one hand.

This summer it will be about who we can add to this squad rather than who we need to get rid. And that is the important difference.

We add a couple of new strikers, some new creativity and steel in the middle and we are transformed.

This is an Arsenal squad moving forward. 2018/19 was an Arsenal squad moving backwards.

So keep your head up. The end of the season might be tough but there is plenty to be excited about.

We were saddened to see the passing of former chief scout Steve Rowley following a short illness.

Steve spent nearly 40 years with the club, first as a part-time scout scouring Essex (where he discovered Tony Adams and Ray Parlour) and then progressing through to being the main man.

Our thoughts are with Steve’s family. A true Arsenal man.

Enjoy the last day of a bank holiday weekend.

Keenos