Should Arsenal just recruit Brighton’s recruiters?

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Last few days we have been linked with Brighton’s Moises Caicedo and Kaoru Mitoma.

We have recently signed Ben White and Leandro Trossard from the south-coast. Brighton have also recently sold the likes of Marc Cucerella to Chelsea, Yves Bissouma to Spurs and Dan Burn to Newcastle.

Those 5 mentioned above generated £170m for Brighton. They cost them under £50m

Caicedo and Mitoma cost Brighton around £7m combined. If both are sold this summer, they will raise over £100m between them.

Throw in Alexis Mac Allister and Tariq Lamptey and their recruitment has been excellent.

This has led some to say “Arsenal should just recruit Brighton recruiters”.

There is no doubt Brighton have bought and sold brilliantly in the last couple, but would poaching their scouting network really be a solution?

Brighton’s Golden Spell

Brighton are doing brilliant in the transfer market. But are they just in a golden spell?

They are not be the first club who have signed and extraordinary amount of fairy unknown talent in a short period.

Leeds United did it in the late 90s, recruiting the likes of Harry Kewell, Lee Bowyer, Jimmy Floyd-Hasselbaink, Erik Bakke, Olivier Dacoure, Mark Viduka.

Their recruitment led them to competing with Arsenal and Manchester United, and peaked with a Champions League semi-final.

Three years after reaching that semi-final, they were relegated and spent 16 years in the Champions and League One before regaining promotion to the Premier League in 2020.

In the early 00’s, Newcastle recruited Hatem Ben Arfa, Chiek Tiote, Papiss Cisse, Demba Ba and Yohan Cabaye.

In 2012, Newcastle finished 5th and a result, they gave chief scout Graham Carr a new 8-year deal.

The next season, they dropped to 16th and in 2016, 4 years after handing out the new 8-year deal, they were relegated.

The year after signing his 8-year deal, Carr oversaw the recruitment of Vurnon Anita, Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa, Matthieu Debuchy, Massadio Haidera, Yoan Gouffran, Moussa Sissoko, Gael Bigirimana and Kevin Mbabu. Only Debuchy and Sissoko went on to have any level of success with them.

Both clubs set an example that a golden spell of recruitment does not last forever.

The Bigger Picture

The year after Graham Carr’s new contract, he recruited Debuchy and Sissoko. Had I left it at that, you would’ve said “he continued his good work.”

But that year they signed 9 senior players and Debuchy and Sissoko’s fees combined made up just 21.6% of their spending.

A lot of sides that have a golden spell actually end up using the “throw a lot of eggs at the wall and hope a couple do not break” policy.

For example, the year Newcastle signed Cisse and Ba, they also signed Manchester United’s Gabriel Obertan.

The year Brighton signed Trossard and Lamptey, they also signed Adam Webster, Neal Maupay, Matt Clarke and Aaron Mooy.

Trossard and Lamptey cost the club £14m. The aforementioned four cost over £40m.

It is easy to talk about the successful recruits, but what is ignored is those players that are bought in that do not make it.

Meanwhile, at Arsenal we perhaps spend too long discussing the poor recruits (Albert Sambi Lokonga, Nuno Tavares, Cedric Soares, Pablo Mari) rather than celebrating the successful ones.

Continuing at Brighton, in 2020 they signed Caicedo. They also bought Jakub Moder, Michal Karbownik, Andi Zeqiri, Jan Paul van Hecke and Joel Veltman. They also signed Danny Welbeck and Adam Lallana on free transfers.

Was their transfer business that great in 2020? Or was it one gem and half a dozen duffs?

In 2021, they spent £65m.

Marc Cucerella and Kaoru Mitoma have turned out to be good buys. Enock Mwepu, Kacper Kozlowski, Abdallah Sima, Denis Undav and Kjell Scherpen not so good.

Cucerella and Mitoma made up less than 30% of their transfer spending that summer. The pit cost less combined than Brighton spent on Mwepu.

To find a Caicedo or Trossard, you need to sign 5 or 6 similar level players and hope one pushes on. I am not sure that is a transfer policy we would want Arsenal to have.

We know the players

I pretty much guarantee that every top player Brighton have signed, Arsenal we’re aware of and watching.

Top clubs have vast scouting networks and will be watching 100s of players at any one time. “Discovering” a player is much easier than it used to be. There will be multiple Premier League scouts watching lower league Brazilian games.

The key is deciding which of those 100s of players you will sign. And it is not easy.

There is a huge gulf from youth team level abroad to being Premier League ready. There are many hurdles for a young, foreign player. And it is not just about their ability, but their attitudes the way they settle.

For ever Gabriel Martinelli, Cesc Fabregas, there are 1000s of foreign lads that join Premier League academies that never make it. And this is beyond just Arsenal.

We choose players A, B & C, Manchester United choose D, E & F, Brighton go for G, H & I. Just because we do not sign a certain player, it does not mean we were not aware of them.

There are no guarantees when signing these young players. It is guesswork as to who will progress.

One thing young players need to progress is senior game time. We play at a higher level than Brighton and can not always afford to give these young players the time they need to progress. And that is the next issue

We can’t give them the game time

Looking at Brighton’s transfer policy, Albert Sambi Lokonga and Nuno Tavares would probably have been two of the sort of profile players they would have signed.

They are no too different in profile to Cucerella and Mwepu, costing about the same amount.

At Brighton, Tavares and Lokonga would have got more game time, under less pressure. They would have been able to make the mistakes they have made at Arsenal, and grow from them.

Arsenal can not afford to babysit players. To try and coach young players through a tough time and continue giving them game time when they are not really ready.

That difference is why Arsenal are title challengers and Brighton are mid-table.

Had Lokonga spent 2-years playing for Brighton, how much more would he have kicked on? Would he now be a £50m midfielder, a perfect replacement for Thomas Partey? Would we have been moaning “why didn’t we sign him 2-years ago”.

We, naturally, can not have as much patience with players.

Alexis Mac Allister is a great example of this.

The Argentine was signed by Brighton in 2019 for €8m, then loaned straight back to Argentinos Juniors. The next season he remained in Argentina, on loan at Boca Juniors.

In his first full season for Brighton, he started 13 games. In 2021/22 he started 22. It is only really this season he has become a regular first teamer.

It has basically taken Brighton 4 years to develop Mac Allister into the top midfielder they now have, having spent €8m on him. Would Arsenal, and Arsenal fans, have that patience? Or by the time he hits 22, having been with us for 2 years, would he be in the “dead wood” column.

I love Moises Caicedo and think he would be a great long-term replacement for Partey. But the Ecuadorean certainly was not a Cesc Fabregas wonderkid.

Manchester United were heavily linked when Brighton made the move to sign the-then-19-year-old. He didn’t make an appearance in his first half a season having signed in January.

The next year, he was loaned out to Belgium side Beerschot. After 14 appearances he was recalled by Brighton and played just 664 PL minutes in the second half of the season. Just 8 games.

This season he has kicked on, becoming a first team regular following the departure of Yves Bissouma.

Had Arsenal signed him, he probably would have followed a similar path, being loaned out. But he would not have kicked on this season as he would have been playing second fiddle to Partey, Xhaka and others.

And as mentioned above, had Brighton signed Lokonga and us Caicedo, would their fortunes also be reversed? Caicedo on loan at Palace and labelled “too raw” whilst Lokonga, with more game time and under less pressure, kicking on?

Different expectations

Fan expectations is also key.

Kaoru Mitoma is flavour of the month after some eye-catching performances.

But the Japanese international is 26 in June, and has played just 20 Premier League games for Brighton since joining in 2021.

If Mitoma had signed for Arsenal in 2021, played just 20 league games, and be 26 at the end of the season, would we hype him up? Or would we be saying “cash in and get someone better” in the summer.

I would imagine most would be saying “only bought to sell shirts”.

At Brighton, Mitoma is a star. At Arsenal he would be a flop.

Different level

And ultimately, Arsenal are at a different level than Brighton. Just like Real Madrid are at a level above Arsenal.

Due to the level they are at, Brighton can take risks on players that are levels below Arsenal are seriously considering. They can give them more game time and see them progress into senior players.

Brighton sign 6 or 7 players for £50m. The best player of the bunch is then sold for £50m.

Arsenal can cherry pick those better players from Brighton, rather than having to spend £50m on 6 or 7 players ourselves and trying to develop one.

Both teams spend £50m, but Brighton do it on numerous players and Arsenal on one. And of those numerous players, it is not clear and obvious at the time who will be the star.

And it works above Arsenal too.

Arsenal were able to sign Martin Odegaard from Real Madrid because they had better players in that position and couldn’t give the Norwegian the game time to progress.

He joins Arsenal, playing at a lower level, and becomes a superstar.

Our superstar central defensive partnership of Gabriel and Saliba also highlight the levels.

Manchester City, Real Madrid, Barcelona, PSG et al knew about these stars, but also knew both were raw. Arsenal took a chance and both are now amongst the best defenders in the world.

How long will it be until one of those clubs come in? Offer Arsenal £70 or £80m for one or the other?

Brighton could not attract Gabriel, Real Madrid could not give him the game time to develop, he was at the perfect level for Arsenal.

And that happens throughout football. There is a food chain and you sign the players depending on the level.

The Brighton’s of this world sign 6 or 7 players for £5-10m each. The Arsenal 2-3 sign players the level above for £20-30m. Real Madrid sign two players for £50m+.

A final thought, Brighton now remind me of Southampton a few years ago.

The Saints had recruited well. Signed the likes of Virgil van Dijk from Celtic, an uncapped defender with a mistake on him.

They were able to give him the game time to work through the mistakes and 3 seasons later he joined Liverpool for a world record fee for a defender.

Liverpool could have signed him from Celtic. Any team could. But that does not mean he would have had the game time he needed to become the player he did.

It is not as easy to just go and poach a recruitment team. It is easier – and cheaper – to use that club and others as a de facto feeder club.

Let Brighton spend £50m on their 5 or 6 players. Let them develop, and then we will spend £50m on the one that rises to the top.

Less risk, same money spent.

Have a good Saturday.

Keenos

Arsenal physio in Ghana an example of Arteta’s marginal gain philosophy

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Some strange news this week was Arsenal physio Simon Murphy joining Thomas Partey in Ghana.

Rumours circulated as to why he was there. Was it as chaperone, was it to help Partey manage his injury? Or maybe Murphy just loves jollof rice and was using the international break for a bit of a holiday.

Pictures then dropped of Murphy in Ghanaian training gear.

A lot has been said over the last 12 months about the small things Mikel Arteta is doing to try and help Arsenal win the league title.

Having “You’ll never walk alone” blast out in training in the lead up to Liverpool, plying crowd noise through speakers at London Colney and having DJ on the sidelines trying to distract the players are just a few of things.

Recently he took a replica Clock End clock to Fulham. And numerous other stories have risen about how Arteta has tried to make away games seem more homely.

These are all what is called marginal gains. A tactic made famous by British Cycling’s David Brailsford.

“The whole principle came from the idea that if you broke down everything you could think of that goes into riding a bike, and then improved it by 1%, you will get a significant increase when you put them all together” Brailsford explained in 2012.

Brailsford’s 1% factor has since transferred across to other sports and the business world.

Arteta is one that clearly looks for an marginal gain, and sending Murphy to Ghana is an example.

You always worry when players go on international duty to 3rd world nations where they do not have the same level of fitness, nutrition and medical care expertise as Arsenal.

Too often teams have seen players return from the African Cup of Nations overweight, injured or unfit.

It is actually a surprise that teams have not “loaned” their physios to the likes of Ghana earlier.

With half the first team squad away on international duty, Arsenal’s physios will have less workload over the next two weeks, so it makes a lot of sense to ship one (or two) of them off to help out those lesser nations whom our key players play for.

Arsenal have done a great job nurturing Partey’s body through this season, and our title hopes really do rest in his hands, his body.

Partey staying fit dramatically increases our chance of winning the league. Murphy being out in Ghana dramatically increases the chance of Partey returning fit.

Could we have benefitted over the years sending a physio to Gabon to be with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang or Chile to be with Alexis Sanchez?

Arsenal might become trendsetters here – I am not sure if other clubs have done similar.

It would not be a huge surprise if club physios joined up with lesser nations in the future.

Manchester City physios in Algeria or Norway. Arsenal in Ghana. Liverpool in Egypt or Scotland.

And those nations will also benefit greatly having some of the best physios, medial staff or nutritionists join them for a couple of weeks. Teaching their home grow staff a thing or two. Everyone wins.

Now we just need Partey to return fully fit and ready for Leeds!

Keenos

Is Mikel Arteta over playing Bukayo Saka?

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With Erling Haaland pulling out of the Norway squad with a “groin injury”, plenty called for Arsenal players to do similar and declare themselves injured for the next 8-10 days, ruling them out of the international break.

As we discussed yesterday, we only have 4 regulars who will start for their countries over the break – Bukayo Saka, Thomas Partey, Granit Xhaka and Oleksandr Zinchenko.

The rest of those away are fringe players. Arsenal would probably benefit from the likes of Jorginho, Tierney and Smith Rowe getting a competive run out for their countries to keep themselves match sharp.

“We need to do the same with Saka” was a common response after the Haaland news. And this rose to another conversation as to whether Arteta is overplaying Saka and at risk of running him into the ground.

Saka has played 38 of Arsenal’s 39 games this season. As have Granit Xhaka, Gabriel Magalhães and Gabriel Martinelli. He has also played in 6 of England’s 7 fixtures and will probably start both games for his country during the international break.

Just 21, he is 3 games shy of 200 senior appearances for Club and country. That is comparable to the likes of Wayne Rooney and Cesc Fabregas.

His workload has led to same wonder whether he is being overplayed. And whether England, Arsenal, Southgate and Arteta should do more to protect him. But I am not too sure.

Top players play 70 games

In October, Arteta spoke brilliantly about Saka’s work load.

“Look at the top players in the world, they play 70 matches and every three days and make the difference and win the game.

“You want to be at the top, you have to be able to do that. If we start to put something different in the minds of our young players I think we are making a huge mistake because then it’s one yes, one no, now I don’t play, on astroturf I don’t play, I don’t want that.

“I want them to be ruthless every three days. They are going to be knocking on my door, [saying] ‘I want to play, I want to win the game.’”

He added: “There is not a fitness coach in the world who is going to tell me that they cannot do it because I’ve seen it. 72 games, score 50 goals. The players don’t score 50 goals if they play 38 games in the season, it’s impossible.”

Arteta is aluding to Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. And that if Saka wants to get near to these guys level, he has to have the desire to play every game he can.

By the time they had turned 22, both Messi and Ronaldo had played over 200 games for club and country. The pair regularly played close to 70 games in the 20s, and 50+ into their mid 30s.

Wayne Rooney and Cesc Fabregas were similar.

All 4 had career spanning 15+ years, and played a combined 3,692 games for club and country.

Neymar has played over 700 games and is still just 21!

At 24, Kylian Mbappe has already played 388 games. Vinicius Junior is already north of 300 and is only a year older than Saka.

Haaland, 22 years old, is at 260 games.

If Saka wants to be considered as one of the best players of his generation, he needs to be playing the games, and maintaing the level.

Others around his age are playing 50-60 games a season, so Saka should be expected to play at the same level.

Play whilst hot

Saka is our best player and in brilliant form. It would make zero sense ro rest or rotate him.

Next year, we will have Champions League football, so Saka can expect his game time to further increase. But as discussed, this is not unsual for players of his ability.

You never know when a player might “run cold”, or pick up an injury that changes their career path. So when they are in the type of form Saka is in, you must play them.

We can try and “protect” Saka, but an injury can occur at any time that derails his career.

It is also impossible to predict when a player will “fall off the cliff” and stop performing at their high level.

Saka could go on as long as Messi and Ronaldo, playing at a high level beyond 35. He might, at 32, follow Rooney’s demise (he still played 670 top level games for Everton, Manchester United and England). Or at 28 he might be done (think Aelxis Sanchez).

A lot of this comes down to the hunger and desire to give 100% in every training session, as much as your body giving up on you.

There is also no gaurantee that he will be at Arsenal into his late 20s and early 30s. Fabregas left us at 24.

Whilst I do expect him to stay at Arsenal for more than the next 3 years, he may well look to move on in his late 20s if we do not give him the success to match his talent. So by protecting him, all we could be doing is benefiting who he moves to.

Saka not rapid

Often, a winger goes downhill when their explosive pace goes. Think Fernando Torres, Michael Owen, Alexis Sanchez, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.

But the best players in the world can reinvent themselves.

Cristiano Ronaldo became a goal poacher. Neymar and Messi both dropped deeper becoming creators.

Saka is quick, but he is not electric, not explosive. He also does not rely on his pace.

He has fantastic movement, ball control and technique. Very rarely do you see him beat a player on the outside with just pace. Most of his best work comes from him drifting inside the full back.

As he does not rely solely on his pace, his career will naturally be longer than those who do rely on pace.

And he is also intelligent and capable of picking out a pass. As his legs go in his later years, you can certainly see him moving inside, playing simialr to where Martin Odegaard does.

The greatest technical footbal lI have ever seen is Dennis Bergkamp.

In his early days he was a pacey winger. He then converted into a number 9. It was only reallwhen he joined Arsenal at 26 that he dropped deeper and became the best number 10 in world football.

Saka can easily play into his mid-30s if he drops inside when the pace he does have begins to go.

Saka is already one of the best players in the world. He is up there with Vinicius Jr and Mbappe. And these sort of players play 70 games a season.

And if Arsenal want to win things over the long term, the likes of Saka, Martinelli, Saliba et al will have to get used to playing 70 games.

Keenos