Arteta double striker dilema

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Earlier this week, we discussed Arsenal’s options in improving the forward line.

I concluded that it made zero sense to sign a new striker, and that we would be best off signing a winger that can play up top. There are plenty of wingers that can do this.

If we go for a winger who can also cover up front, another question is then raised. Eddie Nketiah or Folarin Balogun as the back-up striker?

12 months ago, I was firmly in the “Nketiah’s time is up” camp.

His form towards the end of last season secured him a new contract and a chance to cement himself as Gabriel Jesus’s long term understudy. But was it the right decision?

Nketiah is yet to start for Arsenal in the league, and failed to score in any of his 142 minutes.

It is perhaps unfair on Nketiah to say that Arteta does not trust him.

As a result of our good form, Nketiah has been more of a “time wasting” substitution to see out the game, rather than being sent on to “grab a goal”:

Aston Villa – Arsenal 2-1 up – Nketiah a 88th minute sub
Bournemouth – 2-0 – 75th minute
Leicester City – 4-2 – 84th
Crystal Palace – 2-0 – 83rd
Brentford – 3-0 – 78th
Nottingham Forest – 5-0 – 75th
Leeds United – 1-0 – 82nd
Liverpool – 3-2 – 90+1
Tottenham – 3-1 – 80th
Wolves – 2-0 – 90+1

In the 3 games where Arsenal were not leading going into the closing stages, Nketiah was bought on much earlier.

1-nil down against Fulham, Nketiah was bought on in the 61st minuted. 2-1 down against Manchester United it was the 74th and 1-1 against Southampton it was the 71st.

In all 3 of those games, he was the first attacking sub we made (in the case of Manchester United, he was part of a trio bought on including Emile Smith Rowe and Fabio Vieira). That shows that when Arteta needs a goal, Nketiah is the first man he turns too.

Nketiah has played every minute in the Europa League – although strangely shifted out wide when Jesus has also started.

He has 2 goals in 6 appearances in Europe as well as 1 in 1 in the League Cup. that leaves him with a goal every 150 minutes in the league. Although as discussed, he comes on to see out a game where we are already winning and are not showing much attacking intent.

The question for Arteta is whether he will trust Nketiah enough during the second half of the season to play him ahead of Gabriel Jesus in the league.

There will be league games where Jesus needs a break, or is out of form. Does Arteta rotate his front-men, or continue to flog the Brazilian? And I am not sure of the answer.

Florian Balogun, meanwhile, has been “next in line” for a few years.

18 months ago I wrote a blog about how he was “too good for the U23 but not yet good enough for the first team“.

He could have done with being loaned out for the entire of last season. Instead he went on loan to Middlesbrough for the second half of the season. He was less than inspiring.

With Nketiah’s new deal, a decision was made this summer to loan the 21-year-old out to Reims. Following Nketiah’s new contract, it was felt it loan move to put him in the shop window, rather than to help his development.

He has come on leaps and bounds in France, showing the raw talent we knew he had.

8 goals in 14 games (12 starts) only Kylian Mbappe, Neymar, Jonathan David, Alexandre Lacazette and Lorient’s Terem Moffi have scored more. Not a bad list of forwards ahead of you!

Balogun is clearly a magnificent natural goal scorer, but does he have enough to the rest of his game to displace Nketiah going into 2022/23?

3 of his 8 goals have come from the penalty spot, and he has just 1 assists this season. He is averaging a goal every 135 minutes (against Nketiah 1 in 150), although this has been for a mid-table team. He has scored half of Reims goals.

I have not watched enough of him to see if his build up play has improved – it is an area of the game Nketiah has dramatically improved on in the last 12 months.

Any Jesus cover not only has to replace Jesus’s goals, but also his assists, mobility and work rate.

Nex summer, only one of Nketiah or Balogun will be at Arsenal – we have seen with how little game time Nketiah has had that you do not need a 3rd striker. And that other striker choice will probably come from a midfielder who can play up top.

We are very much a “Man City-lite” right now, and for most of Pep’s time in the North-West, he has only had 2 strikers (Aguero & Jesus, Haaland & Alvarez). Liverpool have been the same for a long time (Firminho & Jota, now Nunez an option), whilst

Tottenham have always struggled to fill the “2nd striker position” behing Kane and now utilise wingers (Richarlison, Son), as their alternative options. Chelsea do not really have a striker of any note.

So I guess next year the question is simple.

Nketiah or Balogun?

Keenos

Jesus to rise again in April

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Sorry, I couldn’t stop myself with the headline.

It is more likely that Gabriel Jesus will be back in March, but this year Easter is in April and sometimes a good headline for a bit of fun is more important than the truth!

Reports are that he will be out for around 3 months. Not sure on the accuracy as he probably has not made it back to Arsenal yet.

I imagine he will fly to Dubai at some point this week to meet up with the Arsenal medical staff. A decision will then be made whether he needs immediate treatment, or can return to Qatar to remain with the Brazil squad.

Depending on the length of his injury will influence Mikel Arteta and Edu’s thinking. So what are the title chasers options?

Eddie Nketiah

Following a good end to last season, Eddie was given a big new contract.

5 goals in 7 games (although only scored in 3 of them), was enough to convince the powers that be that Nketiah still had a future at Arsenal.

During that period, he also showed an improved work rate and ball holding ability. Two things Arteta demands of his forward.

But under different circumstances, would Eddie have been offered that new contract?

With Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang dumped in January, Arsenal’s two other strikers were also coming to the end of their contracts.

Arsenal could not afford to be strikerless, so a contract had to be offered to either Alexandre Lacazette or Eddie Nketiah. In the end the Englishman signed.

Was the new contract just a result of circumstances? Arsenal would not have wanted to go hunting for 2 new strikers in the summer and Nketiah was the cheaper option of the two.

Nketiah stepped up in the closing stages of last season. Can he do the same in the middle of this?

New striker

In recent weeks, we have discussed whether we should be targeting a new striker or winger in January. Prior to the Jesus move, many agreed that it was a winger we had to focus on.

Jesus’s injury may have led some to change their mind and that we should now prioritise a striker.

Edu showed last winter that he has a long term transfer strategy and is unwilling to make short term moves. But top of the league at Christmas, he might have to show a more flexible approach and do what is best for the next 6 months.

The issue Edu and his team face is “what decent strikers are available in January?”

There is a dearth of top strikers out there, and anyone decent would probably be unlikely to move. It would also take a while for a striker from abroad to acclimatise to the Premier League, and by the time they get their feet Jesus could return.

Another option could be that we ensure we get the winger we need, which could free up Gabriel Martinelli to play up top.

Gabriel Martinelli

For a long time, I thought Martinelli’s future could lie playing down the middle rather than on the wing. He played much of his debut season for us as a central striker, scoring 10 goals.

He certainly has the attributes to replace Jesus. Martinelli is a fantastic finisher, shows good movement in the box and has fantastic work rate.

If Martinelli moved centrally, Arsenal could look at the returning Emile Smith Rowe to play left wing.

The England youngster has missed most of this season injured, but contributed 11 goals last season from the left hand side.

Smith Rowe would then be backed up by the planned winger we were targeting to sign in January.

Mykhailo Mudryk is the name on everyone’s lips.

Signing the Ukrainian and the return of Smith Rowe would leave us with the dual choice of Nketiah and Martinelli down the middle whilst not taking too much of a risk out wide.

Recall Balogun

Some will call for Folarin Balogun to be recalled from his loan spell in France. The youngster has been in fantastic form for Reims, scoring 8 goals in 15 games.

However, reports are Arsenal did not include a recall clause in the loan deal. That means he will remain in France for the duration of the season.

Personally, I would keep with our existing January plans and utilise Martinelli down the middle.

Keenos

Who was your most disappointing Arsenal departure?

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Over the years there have been many players to have left us that have felt like a dagger to the heart.

If we mentioned them all, you would still be reading this blog after the World Cup has finished.

The nature of the game, many more players will leave us than retire with us. Here is my list of most disappointing departures:

Most disappointing departure – Robin van Persie

What a player RVP was. The club could, and should, have done more to keep him.

Even now it still annoys me. He could have gone on to be an Arsenal legends.

His just sums up where Arsenal were as a club at that point. Unable to meet the ambition of any decent player.

I do not have as much animosity towards him as maybe I should. Football is a short career and we could not guarantee what he wanted, trophies. He was also not home grown like Ashley Cole

He says that we never offered him a new deal and that AFC got tired of him.

Surely this cannot be true, but whatever the truth, we should have done everything we could to keep him.

Most bitter departure – Ashley Cole

I really do not need to go too much into it. I do not think I have seen Arsenal fans throw as much hatred towards a single player for leaving.

In those seasons he played for Chelsea, you would never hear a good word said about him, never hear anyone trying to justify his decision.

Also rans…

Emmanuel Adebayor – That celebration when he ran the length of the pitch to celebrate in front of the AFC fans was nasty, you don’t do that. Thinks that he’s misunderstood. No he isn’t, we just loathe him.

Samir Nasri – Another one following the money, very good player, but not as good as he thought he was.

Unhappy departure – Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain

I liked Ox.

On his day he was a very good player, but plagued by injury. I don’t think we’ve missed him, but I did want him to stay.

Bemused departure – Joe Willock

I always felt that he was a good player and that letting him go was a mistake that could bite us. I hope it doesn’t.

No hard feelings departure – Theo Walcott

He was a very good player on his day and a top bloke. His time had come to leave us. I wished him all the best on his departure.

Also rans…

Danny Welbeck – I always felt that he had real potential. He had serious pace, but he was injury plagued and lacking a that killer instinct that strikers need. Really liked him though.

Alex Iwobi – Promised much, but never really delivered. Glad to see he’s doing ok at Everton, even though they’re a crap team.

Who was your most disappointing Arsenal departure?

Paul