Jorginho – “The winner that could take Arsenal over the line; bought primarily for Europe”

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On the face of it, the Jorginho transfer is an odd one.

Arsenal’s recent signings have been young and dynamic.

He has struggled in a struggling Chelsea team. And whilst he has never been the most mobile, never been quick, he seems to be slowing down.

And at 31-years-old, he certainly does not fit the criteria of players Arsenal have recently recruited.

So why did Arsenal opt to sign him?

It comes down to Mikel Arteta. He has always liked Jorginho.

In 2018, Manchester City were expected to complete the signing of Jorginho. At the last minute Chelsea swept in to secure the Italian.

At the time, Pep Guardiola’s assistant was Arteta.

A couple of years ago, when Granit Xhaka was on the brink of leaving, Jorginho was top of Arteta’s list. In the end Xhaka stayed.

In a recent interview, Arteta spoke about any player coming to Arsenal this late in the window needed to be “ready to go straight away”.

They had to be Premier League ready, fit, and ready to start at Everton if needed. And the first choice for that was Moises Caicedo. We ended up with Jorginho.

Whilst he is the wrong profile in terms of age and dynamism, he does fit what Arteta needs now – someone who will not need to settle in.

Over 200 games in England, he will need no time to settle down. He will probably not move from his current abode. And I would imagine he already knows Arsenal’s Brazilian contingent on a social basis.

He is an Arteta type of player.

Fantastic on the ball, he thrives in a posession based system. He is also a leader and a winner.

It was only 15 months ago that he was named the 3rd best player in the world, finishing behind Lionel Messi and Robert Lewandowski in the Ballon d’Or.

The same year he was also named UEFA Player of the Year and was in both the UEFA Euro 2020 Team of the Tournament and UEFA Champions League Squad of the Season. He was also named in the FIFA FIFPro World11.

In 2021, he was key as Chelsea won the Champions League and Italy won the European Championships. That same year he was also part of the team that won the European Super Cup and World Club Cup.

When you look at his credentials, he could just be the winner to take Arsenal over the line.

It left a lot of fans mystified. But there is some solid theory behind it. And it is mainly Europe.

Midfield is where we lack depth.

Xhaka and Thomas Partey’s are fantastic. But there is not much behind them.

Mohamed Elneny is a solid professional but likely out for the season. Albert Sambi Lokonga has flattered to deceive. At the time of writing he is being linked with a loan move out of the club.

We have a maximum of 26 games left in the league and Europe. I expect us to continue the rotation policy in Europe.

But with no adequate cover for Xhaka and Partey, the squad situation meant they would both likely have to play in Europe.

Jorginho’s recruitment means that we can keep protecting Partey for the league. And then the choice is still there to play Lokonga (if he stays) instead of Xhaka.

When you realise Jorginho has been bought primarily for Europe, to allow us to rest Partey mid-week, then you understand his recruitment.

Yes, we all would have preferred Caicedo, Declan Rice or Martin Zubimendi. But those deals could not be done. I am sure we will go again for them in the summer.

The choice ended up being “no one or Jorginho”. And at £12m on a 1.5 year deal, the Italian-Brazilian does not take too much out of the pot for the summer.

Every game Jorginho plays is one less Partey has to. And protecting Partey is what wins us the League.

Keenos

Caicedo chaos not a cause for concern

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So for the second transfer window in a row, we are in late for a defensive midfielder and could potentially come out empty handed.

In the summer, we launched a bid for Douglas Luiz. A snatch and grab deal, we tried to take advantage of his contract situation by low-balling Aston Villa.

The interest in Luiz only materialised late in the window due to Mohamed Elneny’s injury.

We failed with the bid as Villa held firm. The failure to secure him has not really damaged us this season.

Then we have Moises Caicedo. Long term readers will know how much I like this guy.

We went have gone big, reportedly offering around £70million. But Brighton are refusing to sell and Arsenal are unwilling to offer a fee so large that it would be impossibile for them to turn it down.

Although I would argue that £70m for a 21 year old with 26 Premier League games to his name is already astronomical.

As I said when we walked away from Mykhailo Mudryk, we need to back Edu and his team over their valuation on players.

They have proved with the signings of Oleksandr Zinchenko, Gabriel Jesus, Martin Odegaard and Leandro Trossard that walking away from a deal is not a disaster.

So Caicedo. What is happening?

Hand forced by Chelsea

What Chelsea have done in January forced the hand of many clubs, including Arsenal.

Mudryk was clearly a long term target for us and we were prepared to negotiate a deal for him. We probably would have got him for want we wanted. But then Chelsea swopped in and “paid the asking price”.

They have now spent over half a billion in the last two transfer windows. And in most of those cases they have paid that asking price.

Not negotiating might get them the player, but also leads them to over pay and puts them in tough situations later down the line.

They attempted to negotiate with Lyon over Malo Gusto. Lyon refused to, and they ended up having to pay the asking price – £31million when their initial first bid was £15m.

This tactic is already putting them at a disadvantage in the market and could have long term repercussions.

What Chelsea also did was bring forward their summer spending to January.

6 permanent signings (7 if the Enzo Fernandez deal goes through), and over £200m spent. This “early transfer business” is what really forced our hand.

Caicedo is a long term target, and we were probably looking to sign him in the summer. But then Chelsea began discussions with him.

The result was we had to act fast, and submitted our bid. Having lost Mudryk, we did not want to lose another long term target.

If Chelsea showed no interest, I imagine our January transfer business would have been done and we would have gone in for Caicedo, or Declan Rice, or Martin Zubimendi in the summer.

Caicedo might not be on his way to Arsenal, but he is also unlikely to join someone else today.

No longer pressing

As we intensified our interest in Caicedo, Chelsea’s interest seemed to disolve. They also returned to Enzo Fernandez – their primary choice for central midfield.

Chelsea’s late pursuit of Enzo meant that they would not longer be in the market for Caicedo. And it is no longer as pressing for Arsenal to get a quick deal done.

Thomas Partey’s rib injury is also not as serious as first thought. He will likely be fit for Everton.

With our FA Cup exit, we have just 26 games left to play this season. We should be able to manage the squad through those games.

We will not bow down to social media pressure to make transfers for likes. That is not how a big club operates.

Can take a breath

If we were not sure on Caicedo’s worth, we are right to take a step back, take a breath.

Caicedo’s price was being driven up by a few factors:

  • Chelsea’s interest
  • Arsenal top of the league
  • No other top targets on the market

A lot changes in the summer. Mainly because two additional targets will emerge – Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi.

Rice is head and shoulders of the trio, and would probably be available for around £80million. That is less than what it would take to get a deal for Caicedo done now.

Meanwhile, Zubimendi has a £52m release clause.

Caicedo sits between the two, value wise.

So come the summer, we would have 3 options which would give us a much stronger hand at the negotiating table.

Brighton demand too much for Caicedo? Well we either spend big on Rice, or spend less on Zubimendi.

Arsenal will probably try and get Caicedo for as close to the Zubimendi price as possible, knowing that if Brighton hold out for £80m we can just move for Rice.

And we have cover

Mohamed Elneny is reportedly out until the end of the season. But we still have Thomas Partey cover.

Oleksandr Zinchenko is the most sensible option to repalce him. Then we also have Granit Xhaka and Albert Sambi Lokonga. New boy Jakub Kiwior has also previously played defensive midfield.

The drop off from Partey to anyone is huge. He is the best defensive midfielder in the world right now.

We will need to continue managing his time. Not playing him in the Europa League. Only seeing him in the Premiership.

That will also allow us to assess our options for his cover in Europe.

Final thoughts

Love Caicedo. I think he is the best U21 defensive midfielder in the world right now. And could become one of the best defensive midfielders in the world in a couple of years.

I would not be surprised if we are back in for him in the summer.

Keenos

Moises Caicedo is the perfect long term replacement for Thomas Partey

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It is now not a secret that Arsenal are in for Moises Caicedo. Whether we get a deal over the line before tomorrow evening is an unknown.

I had a blog lined up for deadline day about how we were going to go “all in” for a defensive midfielder, but that the deal would unlikely happen until the summer.

My gut tells me that Caicedo (or someone else) will not join until the summer. But if Arsenal push hard over the next 30-or-so hours, a deal for Caicedo might be done.

Over the last 6 months, I had two players at the top of my list of transfer targets – Mykhailo Mudryk and Caicedo.

I expected the pair to be our two big money signings in the summer. However us being top of the league and Chelsea’s spending spree has changed that.

Chelsea ended up beating us to Mudryk and I hope the same does not happen with Caicedo.

The case for Arsenal to sign Caicedo is an easy one to make.

Instant impact

One aspect of our recruitment in recent years is signing players with Premier League experience.

When the deal for Mudryk do not happen, we turned straight to Leandro Trossard. He made an instant impact against Manchester’s City and United.

Trossard had played over 100 games in the Premier League. He would take no adjusting.

Caicedo joined came to England in February 2021 as a 19-year-old. Brighton took their time with him and he was kept under wraps for the 2nd half of the 2020/21 season, not playing a game.

In the summer of 2021 he was loaned out Belgium side Beerschot for 6 months. He returned to Brighton in January 2022 and has pretty much been a first team regular since.

He has now played 26 Premier League games for Brighton – and a total of 2272 minutes. Not a huge amount of experience but his “settling in” period has happened.

Caicedo knows England, knows the Premier League, and could start Saturday against Everton if we needed him to.

Brighton a BTEC Arsenal

Brighton do not play to disimilar to Arsenal.

They play 4231 possession based game.

Caicedo and Mac Allister play as the two deepest midfielder, with the Argentinian given the freedom to push on when they have the ball turning their formation into a 4141. It is a very similar role to what Granit Xhaka plays for us.

This means Caicedo is often the last and only line of defence infront of his centre backs. Exactly the role Thomas Partey plays for us.

We have already seen how easy Trossard has fitted into Mikel Arteta’s system, and I would be confident that Caicedo will do the same.

Age

My big concern about Declan Rice was his agen and experience. The Englishman would not really be someone who could come in to play a squad role.

Caicedo, at 21, always felt the better fit.

We would be under no pressure to have him playing week in, week out. He would continue his development whilst learning from the best defensive midfielder in the world – Thomas Partey.

As the next 18 to 30 months roll by, we would see a slow transition from Partey to Caicedo..

Come 2025, Partey will be 32 and his current contract will be coming to an end. Caicedo will be just 23 and ready to be our key man week in, week out.

The option would still then be there to retain Partey as 2nd choice. simialr to Fernandinho playing 2nd fiddle to Rodri in his later years.

Signing Caciedo would be fantastic succession planning.

A solid passer

As the man to pick up the ball off the defence and launch our attacks, our defensive midfielder needs to be a very good passer.

We could not have a Gilberto Silva, Claude Makelele or N’Golo Kante in that role. Whilst they are brilliant defensively, they would be too slow on the ball.

Caicedo can improve his passing, but it is certainly not poor.

In the Premier League this season, he has a 88.2% pass accuracy. That is better than Partey’s 86.6%.

Caicedo averages around 60 passes a game, Partey 65. Where Partey is ahead is in long ball accuracy. The Ghanaian has that clipped ball over the top from deep in his armoury. I am not sure Caicedo has that yet.

If Caicedo came in for Partey, we would certainly not see our build up play slow down.

And a fantastic defender

Caicedo’s defensive statistics also match up to Partey’s.

They mirror each other in tackles and interceptions. Caicedo averaging a little more per game due to Brighton having less posession than us.

What the stats show is that Caicedo can read the game well.

Like Partey, he tends not to dive around tackling all over the place. It is all about being positionally solid and making interceptions.

Albert Sambi Lokonga is a liability defensively right now. Caicedo would be a huge upgrade.

Ill-disiplined

His only real downside is that he can be a little rash defensively.

He has committed the 2nd most fouls in the league this season – 36. Partey has conceded just 17. He also has 5 yellow cards to his name against Partey’s 2.

This season, Partey has picked up one yellow card every 697 minutes. Caicedo is booked every 321 minutes. At the current rate, Caicedo will finish the season with 11 yellow card. Partey 5.

Partey has also only received two red cards in his career. It shows a player that is very disciplined. Caicedo will need to work on this to avoid discipline hurting his team.

If we sign Caicedo prior to tomorrows deadline, I will be a very happy boy! But even if we do not, it will not be a disaster for us. And we will just go again for him (or Rice) in the summer.

I always laugh when I think back to people saying they “do not get Edu’s transfer strategy” a few years back when we signed Ben White and Aaron Ramsdale. It was clear than what our strategy was, and even clearer now.

Caicedo will be a brilliant signing for Arsenal’s present, and an even better one for Arsenal’s future.

Keenos