Raphinha has not “rejected Arsenal”

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In the next few days we will see headlines such as “Raphinha has rejected Arsenal for Chelsea” and other variations.

It will be spread on Twitter by Chelsea (and oddly Tottenham) fans in an attempt to show that the Brazilian picked them over us. And that he has snubbed us.

This is not the truth.

Raphinha has not rejected Arsenal. We just did not have a bid accepted by Leeds United.

It is clear to any outside observer that Raphinha wanted a move to Barcelona. Reports emerged earlier this year that Deco – his agent – had already agreed personal terms with his former club.

The problem was Barcelona never agreed terms with Leeds United – unable to pay the £65million the Yorkshire side were demanding.

That opened the door to Arsenal who began negotiations with Leeds United and Raphinha’s representatives.

With the Barcelona deal seemingly dead, it is clear and obvious that Raphinha was interested in joining Mikel Arteta and Edu’s Portuguese/Brazilian revolution.

But like with Barcelona, Arsenal would not match the £65million Leeds wanted.

At no point did Raphinha reject either Arsenal or Barcelona. It was Leeds that rejected both.

And then we have Chelsea who swept in and offered the asking price (reportedly) and look set to complete the deal.

If that Chelsea deal goes through, it will not be Raphinha choosing Chelsea ahead of Barcelona or Arsenal. It will actually be the opposite.

The argument could easily be made that it was Arsenal and Barcelona who rejected Raphinha – they decided he was not worth the £65million Leeds wanted so turned down the deal.

Throughout, Raphinha has not turned down or rejected anyone. Just ignore the noise.

In other news, I see Tottenham fans celebrating that they have “the best striker in Brazil, best striker in Asian, best striker in Europe”. They also talk about Antonio Conte being “the best manager in the world.

I wonder what their excuse will be when they fail to win a trophy for the 15th season in a row.

Pre-season has started and it feels a bit “Rentord Rejects” at London Colney.

The majority of those pictured so far are those that went out on loan last season or got very little game time. Hopefully some of them will be shifted soon.

Enjoy your Friday.

Keenos

As the Raphinha door shuts, an Nkunku one opens

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So we have lost out on Raphinha. I am not concerned one bit.

Edu and his team will have long lists of transfer targets on a white board somewhere at London Colney.

They will be in a locked room that only he, Mikel Arteta and a selected few other senior members of staff can access.

Every club has one. The transfer room. It is where the magic of happens.

Whilst Raphinha was probably top of the list, he will certainly not be the only name on the list.

In-fact, we do not know that he was top of the list. That might have been Serge Gnabry. Or Raheem Sterling. Or another winger that we established early on would be unobtainable.

So we move on from Raphinha. Just like we moved on from Dusan Vlahovic in January.

Now back in January we made the decision not to buy another striker once Vlahovic went to Juventus.

There would have been other options – Alexander Isak and Dominic Calvert-Lewin were being touted around at the time. But the club decided to bide its time.

It is clear now that the option after Vlahovic was Gabriel Jesus; but he was not available until this summer.

Had we signed Isak or Calvert-Lewin in January, their move might have impact Jesus joining.

If the Jesus deal was not “nailed on” for this summer, we might have gone for another name in January.

On a side note, I do wonder whether we were actually considering signing Vlahovic and Jesus at one point?

Vlahovic would have been first choice striker, Jesus his cover whilst also being a regular option out wide. That scenario would have meant we would not have been in for Raphinha (or any other winger) as Jesus would have been that option. It also would have meant Eddie would not have signed a new contract.

Anyway, I digress.

So with Raphinha now not an option (although at the time of writing the deal with Chelsea has not been confirmed so it might still collapse), Edu will go to the next name on the list.

The situation now reminds me of the summer we signed Nicolas Pepe.

Pepe was clearly our primary target that summer.

Lille wanted a lot of money for him. Probably too much money.

We begun to be linked with other players including PSG’s Christopher Nkunku.

Nkunku was a couple of years younger than Pepe and no-where near as established. Although he clearly had the raw materials to become a top player.

In the end we opted to go for the “ready” player in Pepe and paid the £72million for him.

Meanwhile Nkunku went to RB Leipzig for just £10million.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing in football.

Pepe has struggled in his 3 years at Arsenal. The talent is clearly their but something is lacking mentality.

Meanwhile Nkunku has grown into a terrific football over in Germany – scoring 30 goals in 54 games last season.

Now 24 (the same age Pepe was when he signed), he is being linked away in a big money move. One club linked is Arsenal.

Pepe was signed during the Raúl Sanllehí era – a period of time where we bought a lot of “ready made” senior pros.

The likes of Pepe, David Luiz, Pablo Mari and Cedric Soares – with Willian joining the day before he left the club.

Clearly Sanllehi was looking at players for the hear and now and not too concerned with what the future may bring.

Pepe v Nkunku was “ready now but expensive” against “could be a star of the future and cheap”.

Under the current regime with Edu at the BBQ , we probably would have gone for Nkunku ahead of Pepe.

Edu has shown a couple of times that when a deal gets a bit too expensive, a bit too hot, he is willing to walk away from it. I think he would have walked away from Pepe.

Likewise his recruitment has focused on younger talent.

Now whilst Pepe at 24 would still have been in the target range of Edu, £72million would not have been. We probably would have ended up with Nkunku.

So back to Raphinha.

The price on Raphinha got very big – £65million is just not worth it.

So we now look at who is next on the list? And those players will probably be exciting younger talents.

It could reopen the door for someone like Cody Gakpo – the 23-year-old Feyenoord winger has been on our radar for a while and recently been touted as a replacement for Raphinha at Leeds. Or you have Moussa Diaby currently playing out in Germany. Just 22.

We might also look the other way.

Raphinha at £40million would have been a good deal. But at £65million are there better players on the market?

I am thinking Joao Felix.

Or might the world turn a full circle and we end up signing a certain Christopher Alan Nkunku – spending £50m+ on the man who was our full back option back in 2019?

In football transfers, as one door shuts another opens.

In 1999 we lost the best young player in the world to Real Madrid – Nicolas Anelka. To replace him we signed a gangly winger from Juventus. And the rest, as they say, is history.

Keenos

Transfers are a bit like buying a house

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And that is why you shouldn’t invest in a player until the deal is actually done.

Almost out of nowhere Chelsea had a bid accepted for Raphinha.

Journalists across the land had been reporting that Arsenal were in talks, in pole position to land the Leeds United midfielder. But they tempered those reports but stating we had not met Leed’s evaluation.

Every report I read made it clear. Leeds United wanted £65million.

Raphinha was expected to join Barcelona this summer. It was apparently the players primary choice. But the deal broke down because the Spanish giants could not meet the asking price.

Then the links to Arsenal begun.

When I first read those links, it felt a little odd. That we were being used in an attempt to get Barcelona to pay the £65million. It is a common tactic used by agents and selling clubs to try and get a move elsewhere.

But speculation began to grow and clearly we were interested.

Last week it was reported that we had a £30million bid turned down – way off Leeds’ valuation. It was again reiterated in the media that they wanted £65million.

Arsenal were clearly unwilling to pay the £65million – a stance which I think is correct. So talks were scheduled this week.

We clearly had our “upper limit” for the player and it would be up to negotiating team to establish what Leeds’ “lowest limit” would be for the player and trying and come to an agreement.

But before that could take place, Chelsea swept in and paid the asking price.

Now for anyone that has bought a house, they will know this happens a lot.

You are trying to buy a house buy don’t value it at what the seller wants (or do not have the finances to get reach that far). You are in negotiations with the seller to bring that price down. Then another buyer swoops in and pays the asking.

You are frustrated you lost the house but you could never afford it at what it sold for (or don’t value it at that).

Football transfer are no different.

Edu and the team will know what the budget is this year for transfers.

If they valued Raphinha at £50million maximum, then they would not be meeting the asking price of £65m.

That extra £15m is money that could be earmarked towards another central midfield or left back. A bit like when moving you have money earmarked to redecorate or for furniture.

Spending that extra £15m would have meant we would have had to save it elsewhere. Not refurbishing the bathroom or kitchen when we move in for example.

Chelsea needed that big marquee signing of their new era – they had yet to bring anyone in.

They had already tried and failed with Ousmane Dembele. The deal for Raheem Sterling was dragging on.

I wonder if they actually wanted Raphinha long term or just saw him as a deal they could get done quickly. Pay the asking price, splash the cash, and appease the fans.

He certainly is not a £65m player and I would not have wanted Arsenal to spend that on him if it meant sacrificing a new left back or central midfielder.

We have to remember we have already spent £85m this summer on Gabriel Jesus, Fabio Vieira and Marquinhos.

Lisandro Martinez is still being heavily linked at around £35-£40m. That will take our spending to £120m+. Is it then unreasonable to expect us to just splash another £65m on Raphinha? We do not have a bottomless pit of money.

So we move in.

Like buying a house, you are never just looking at one.

Your favourite house is snapped up by someone else, you focus on getting on your second favourite.

It might not be quite as good as the first one. It might be a little bit further from the station. Or need a little bit more work. But you buy it and turn it into a home. And very quickly you forget about the house you missed out on.

And football transfers are just like that.

We move onto our next target. And who knows? That target could turn out to be a better choice!

Enjoy your Wednesday.

Keenos