Let me be very clear to start with. This season has not been a failure. Arsenal did not bottle it. We can be very proud for what we achieved. And nothing has really gone that wrong for us in the title chase. And it is still not over!!!!
Victory on the last day of the season will see us gain the 2nd most points in our history, and just 1 less than the Invincibles. But football has changed and getting nearly 90 points is no longer enough to win the title. You need to be north of that. Finishing behind Manchester City is not a failure.
This season we have scored the most goals in our history and have the best defensive record in the league. We can be extremely proud of our 2023/24 campaign, even though we may well ultimately win nothing.
The playing side of the club does not wholesale changes. Those saying “we need XXX to compete with Manchester City” are ignoring the fact that we have competed with Manchester City in the last two seasons. And I am sure we will be up there again.
Despite all of this, there will be those who want to overly dissect our season, blame it on a single game, an individual or even the manager. These are probably the sort of people that blame all their life failures on others rather than their own decisions.
Aston Villa
Naturally, some fans will obsess over the Aston Villa defeat, and point to that game as the single reason we did not win the league. That is simply not true, just in the same way Tottenham did not gift Manchester City the league by losing to them.
The Premier League season is 38 games long, and no single game is the reason why you may win or lose the league.
One result also impacts subsequent results.
Sliding doors moments, the butterfly effect, chaos theory and so on. There is plenty of evidence out there to highlight that how one changing one action can alter future consequences.
There is no guarantee that had we beaten Villa, that we would not have succumbed to the pressure of being top and ended up dropping points against Chelsea, Tottenha, Manchester United or even Wolves.
Where it actually “went wrong”
If I was really looking for a period where the league was “lost” (Manchester City won the league, we did not lose it), it would be the one win in 5 in December.
Those last two defeats especially were tough to take at the time, especially when you consider how we dismantled West Ham in the return game and how quickly Fulham have capitulated at the later end of the season.
The above little run saw us go from top of the league after 15 games, 6 points clear of Manchester City, to level on points with them having played a game more.
That meant the ludicrous form we have shown in the second half of the season was merely keeping us up with City (and turning around a 5-point deficit to Liverpool), rather than keeping our noses ahead.
However, like with the Villa game, there is no guarantee that were we ahead as we entered 2024, our results would have been the same.
This run might not have cost us the league, but it left us with a lot to do. And we did not quite get there.
Arteta spending
A lot will be made of Mikel Arteta’s spending in the coming weeks. It will be rubbish spouted by lazy journalists and those fans that never wanted him to be our manager and will never change their tune on criticism.
Yes, Arteta has spent a small fortune on the squad since joining – around £590m in transfer fees – but he has still spent less than Manchester City during that period (who have spent around £630m).
What also needs to be taken into account is that Arteta’s spending has been on almost an entire new squad, taking us from 11th (when he took over) to 2nd.
Of the players that started 10 or more league games in 2019/20, only Bukayo Saka remains.
Meanwhile, Manchester City were 2nd in the league in 19/20, with Rodri, Kevin de Bruyne, Bernardo Silva and Ederson starting more games than any other City player. The likes of Kyle Walker, Phil Foden and John Stones were also at the club. That is nearly £300m worth of talent, which they then spent a further £630m adding to creating a squad that cost them nearly £1bn and take them from 2nd to 1st.
The likes of Ozil, Auba, Laca, Pepe, Mustafi, Kolasinac, Bellerin and others were all dumped gone without raising a penny for us. It was not Arteta’s fault that we had a huge amount of ageing, underperforming players on huge wages that no one else wanted to spend money on. Which brings me to my next point.
Another infographic going around concerns net spend. Net spend means nothing. It is lazy journalism produced by those who are unable to comprehend anything more complicated.
It has quickly been forgotten about that by shedding a lot of senior players, Edu and Arteta reduced Arsenal’s wage bill by nearly £100m. So whilst our “net transfer spend” might be comparable (and even higher), than our wages, the total outgoing by the time you factor in what each club is paying in wages leaves us a long way behind.
And next year?
Arteta has rebuilt a squad, spending just £590m to take us from 11th to 2nd whilst cutting our wage bill dramatically. This has put the club in its best position since 2006 – both on and off the pitch.
We are finishing 2nd (at worst) for the second time in 2 years whilst maintaining the 5th highest wage bill during that period. It is a huge overachievement.
What we now need to do is build on it.
A second year of Champions League football, and the revenue that brings in, alongside increasing commercial deals (companies that wanted nothing to do with us in 2019 are now lining up outside Highbury House) will allow us to continually invest and improve.
Arteta has shown that there are some squad players he does not trust (Nelson, Smith Rowe, and others). They will be let go and we will spend big (again), on 3 or 4 new players he does trust.
Whilst that expenditure will be big, in an attempt to take us from 2nd to 1st, it will be a lot less than what Man City have spent taking them from 2nd to 1st since 2020.
New contracts are being given out to secure the future of players that were on 5th placed wages and have proven themselves to be title contending stars. And we will keep moving forward as a club.
But even with spending more, recruiting better players, and Arteta evolving as he gains experience, it will still not be a failure to finish 2nd behind City.
City are state owned with near limitless resources. For every pound we can spend, they can spend 100. They already have some of the best players in the world, they have the best manager in the world, and will also spend big this summer (lets remember they outspent us last year, again).
The future is bright for Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal. But that future also contains Manchester City. And they will not be easy to overtake.
UTA
Keenos
She Wore A Yellow Ribbon 