Tag Archives: Premier League

MATCH REPORT: Arsenal 2 – 1 Everton

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Arsenal (1) 2 Everton (1) 1
Premier League
Emirates Stadium, Drayton Park, London N5 1BU
Sunday, 19th May 2024. Kick-off time: 4.00pm

(4-3-3) David Raya; Gabriel Magalhães, Ben White, William Saliba, Takehiro Tomiyasu; Thomas Partey, Martin Ødegaard (c), Declan Rice; Leandro Trossard, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli.
Substitutes: Aaron Ramsdale, Gabriel Jesus, Emile Smith-Rowe, Jurrien Timber, Eddie Nketiah, Jakob Kiwior, (Jorge Luiz Frello Filho) Jorginho, Fábio Vieira, Oleksandr Zinchenko.

Scorers: Takehiro Tomiyasu (41 mins), Kai Havertz (88 mins)
Yellow Cards: Thomas Partey, Declan Rice, Jurrien Timber
Arsenal Possession Percentage: 69%

Referee: Michael Oliver
Assistant Referees: Stuart Burt, Dan Cook
Fourth Official: Josh Smith
VAR Team at Stockley Park: VAR Stuart Attwell; AVAR Nick Greenhalgh

Attendance: c.60,000

And so the final day of the season has arrived for us all at last. By the end of the ninety minutes we will all know whether Manchester City have fallen on their sword courtesy of West Ham United or not, and ultimately, one way or another, our fate will be sealed. But hey, what a season we have all had!

With the absence of Bukayo Saka today due to injury, there is still a fantastic party atmosphere here at the Emirates this afternoon, in which we started proceedings today for the last time this season.

In the early stages of this game, we were dominating matters with accurate passing and clever play. A superb cross by Declan Rice found the head of Takehiro Tomiyasu but it went wide of the target.

The match started to quieten down and although we had domination, the visitors still managed to sneak in and grab a half chance, which was cleared adequately by David Raya.

Martin Ødegaard slotted the ball to Declan Rice, who managed to get a left-footed shot in, which was somehow saved by Jordan Pickford, and then Gabriel Martinelli’s right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area was saved again by the Everton goalie in the centre of the goal.

After a slight delay due to an injury to Idrissa Gueye the match continued with pressure from our team, and it has to be said that frustration appears to be creeping in, as early as the twentieth minute here.

A sublime pass from William Saliba found Kai Havertz, who did very well to hold up the ball before cutting inside to push it onto his left foot; he tried a clever reverse shot in order to try beat Jordan Pickford, but the shot was blocked by an Everton defender.

Unbelievably, Dominic Calvert-Lewin managed to hit the post with a right-footed shot, which was an incredible let-off for us at this point of the proceedings.

Just after the half-hour, both Kai Havertz and Gabriel came close to scoring, but unfortunately their shots were blocked by an alert Everton defence.

Five minutes before the break, the unthinkable happened when we went a goal down because of a free-kick by Idrissa Gueye which ricocheted from Declan Rice’s head and beat David Raya and simply flew into the top right-hand corner of the net.

A minute or so later, we scored the equaliser when our captain passed the ball to Takehiro Tomiyasu who beautifully whacked the ball into the bottom right-hand corner of the net.

During the seven minutes injury time, we continued with the pressure, with the best effort being when Martin Ødegaard passed the ball to Thomas Partey who blasted the ball over the bar. Either way, the first half finished honours even here at the Emirates.

Everton kicked off the most important second half of the season, and within a minute of the restart, we won the ball and started to put pressure on the Everton goal, culminating in a header from Kai Havertz which went just wide of Jordan Pickford’s post.

Kai Havertz was fouled by James Tarkowski who received a yellow card for his trouble, and shortly afterwards Abdoulaye Doucouré also received a yellow card for his foul on Gabriel; unfortunately, Gabriel was unable to continue as he had incurred a shoulder injury, so Oleksandr Zinchenko replaced him just before the hour mark.

A blistering shot from Dominic Calvert-Lewin was saved superbly well by David Raya and at the other end, a Jarrad Braithwaite header from Martin Ødegaard’s corner only got as far as Declan Rice, who hit a powerful shot over the Everton crossbar.

Shortly afterwards, a superb Gabriel Martinelli cross found the head of Kai Havertz, whose header bounced off the crossbar.

Emile Smith-Rowe and Jurrien Timber replaced Thomas Partey and Ben White with twenty minutes of the match remaining, and we continued trying to score a goal desperately as Leandro Trossard’s cut-back pass found Martin Ødegaard, who took a touch before shooting for goal from just outside the Everton six-yard box, but there were defenders everywhere and his effort went back into general play.

Leandro Trossard was replaced by Gabriel Jesus with twelve minutes of normal time remaining in order to grab goals, and patiently we moved forward with effort and desire.

Emile Smith-Rowe, after receiving a great cross from Gabriel Martinelli, hit the crossbar with a downward shot that bounced up and struck it with some force.

A clever shot from Gabriel Jesus was blocked by a defender that went out of play for a corner kick, and with two minutes left on the clock, we finally got the goal that we were looking for when Kai Havertz got the ball in the back of the net after a clever pass from our captain. However, there was a VAR check as it was thought there was a hand-ball from Gabriel Jesus on the build-up, but fortunately the goal was given by referee Michael Oliver.

In the five minutes injury time awarded, despite our best efforts, news came in that Manchester City had defeated West Ham United by three goals to one, and although every man did their very, very best that they could, second place in the Premiership for the season 2023-24 became our fate.

With eighty-nine points from thirty-eight matches, our boys finished just two points behind champions Manchester City. Yes, we deserved better of course, but overall we should be very proud of this season as we have progressed beyond all expectations.

We did poorly in the domestic cup competitions of course, but finishing runners-up in the Premiership and quarter-finalists in the Champions League is absolutely no disgrace. We are all so very proud of you all, and who knows what will happen next season? This could be a springboard for so much more. Well done, chaps!

Remember everyone, keep the faith, get behind the team and the manager, stick with the winners. Have a great summer everyone, see you again in August! Victoria Concordia Crescit.

Steve

Too Dearly Loved To Be Forgotten: Arsenal v Racing Club de Paris 1930-1962 by Steve Ingless (Rangemore Publications, ISBN 978-1-5272-0135-4) is now available on Amazon

Arsenal set for the final day we have dreamed of for over a decade

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Afternoon all.

A much later than normal blog today as it has been a busy morning in the Keenos household.

The grass is cut, meat is bought for the BBQ and car has been given a run out. It is only now I am getting a moments rest.

In all honesty, I am glad I have had a busy morning as it has taken my mind off what might or might not happen tomorrow. It does a feel a little like the eve of a cup final and the nerves are beginning to creep in.

The obvious difference between tomorrow and a cup final is it is not Arsenal v Manchester City. We face Everton whilst they are at home to West Ham. It is not a case of “we win, we lift a trophy”.

I have seen a few people make comparisons with this season to 1989. That what we did in Anfield should be enough to give us all hope. And yes you are right. But also wrong.

In 1989 it was still in our hands. We knew if we won by two or more clear goals we would lift the title. Tomorrow it is not in our hands.

We could beat Everton 10-nil and still finish 2nd if Manchester City get the victory. The only way we are winning is if we win our game and City fail to beat West Ham. And I just can not see City failing to beat West Ham.

Tomorrow is more like 99 than 89 to me. We are relying on others rather than ourselves.

But that does not mean I think it is a foregone conclusion. Like Mikel Arteta, I believe the dream is still alive. And I will certainly be laying there in bed tonight thinking about what could happen tomorrow.

So plans for tomorrow?

For me it will be head to Islington for 11ish (it is a 4pm kick off remember). Go to a cafe on Upper Street before heading to The George (now called the Stag) for around 3 hours of drinking.

The George has always had a place in my heart and I still can not believe it has been 6 years since Pete and the team poured their last pint in there. Whilst it phoenixed a couple of years ago, it is not the same gaff that it used to be.

Sadly, The George is once again up for sale, and has been for some months. I would not be surprised the 13ish weeks of no Arsenal will see the end once again and we will return in August to see it boarded up. Once again I will be looking for a new home for my pre and post-match beers (and no, I am not going Brewers!).

If tomorrow is the last day for the second incarnation of The George, hopefully we see it off well regardless of winning the league or not.

For the rest of today it will be a case of keeping myself occupied. A few ciders in the garden before the BBQ goes on. And then it is a focus on tomorrow and the biggest question – will it be shorts weather?

UTA.

Keenos

Player sales to finance 65% of Arsenal’s £180m summer spending spree

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In a recent blog, we touched on the subjects of amortisation and player book value.

If you do not have time to firstly read this blog, amortisation is the accounting tactic of spreading the cost of a player’s transfer fee over the length of his contract – with it being further amortised if a player extends.

Meanwhile, a player’s book value is the difference between what we bought a player for, minus what the value of the transfer fee already amortised for. Book value is a more important metric at assessing profit / loss of a player than the simplistic net profit.

To take this thinking a step further, and to try and look into the future, I thought it would be interesting to look at the players that could possibly leave us this summer and assess:

  • What their book value is
  • What profit (or loss) we are likely to see if they are sold
  • What saving they would make us in amortisation costs if they were sold

As discussed in the previous blog, book value is important as it is this difference that determines if you show a profit or loss in your accounts following a player sell.

Sell for less than their book value and you have to use additional funds to offset the difference, whilst it is the amount your sell for above the book value that becomes available to purchase replacements (and not the entire incoming transfer fee).

Assessing the amortisation saving is also important as that determines what can be spent on new incoming transfers without us needing to increase costs – IE if Player A was costing us £10m a year and we sold them, and signed Player B for £50m on a 5-year deal, our outgoings per year would be the same (without taking into account wage differences, agents fees and bonuses).

Together, book value profit determines your new cash flow when buying a player, whilst amortisation helps you understand how much space you have in your accounts to add additional costs (once the outgoing players costs have been taken off).

Note: Ramsdale’s book value has been incorrectly calculated. It should be £8m, with £16m amortised. That would increase his book profit to £17m and make the total book profit £126.12m.

Now a caveat before I start, as I know a few of you will be jumping to the comments straight away – the market value is taken from Transfermarkt. Whilst I understand that this is not accurate (as a player’s value is based on what a club will pay for them, not on an algorithm), it is a good place to start.

Every player that looks overvalued (Tavares, Nketiah) is offset by someone that is undervalued (Ramsdale, Lokonga). I think if we received north of £150m for the 8 players mentioned above, we will be doing well.

So this is where what we learned in the last blog can be put into practice.

£158m incoming transfer fees will equate to a book profit of £126.12m. That means that once the remaining unamortised transfer fees is accounted for, we will still be showing a nice profit.

When you consider I have a 5 man hitlist for the summer (yes, I know my list means nothing), which should come to around £180m in spending, we would only need to find an additional £70m in cash money to pay for these new signings.

When it comes to amortisation savings, things are maybe not quite as rosy.

The 5 players that did not come through our academy cost us in the region of £21.44m a year in amortisation costs. I am going to round this up to £21.5m. If you take me £180m and divide it by 5 (all likely to join on a 5 year contract), then the amortisation costs of those coming in will cost £36m. That is a difference of £14.5m

What is interesting is that the amortisation saving, over a 5 year period, comes to £107.5m. So not too far off the £126m we would make in book profit.

So I can comfortably say that if we sell the 8 players mentioned above, we can spend around £110m with it having zero impact on our finances – again, we are not taking into account wages yet. A blog for another day that.

So where does the additional £60m that we need in cash flow come from, and £14.5m in additional amortisation costs? Well that is not an easy answer.

The additional funds will come from one of two places – making savings and increasing further revenue.

Under making savings are things such as wages – if the 5 coming in cost less per annum than the 5 leaving, that saving can simply be transferred across to the amortisation line of the accounts (think when you adjust your budget on Football Manager).

You get Partey’s £200k salary off the wage bill and replace him with someone like Martin Zubimendi on £115k a week, that is a saving of £4.4m a year.

Likewise, I have not accounted for Mohamed Elneny and Cedric Soares. The pair will leave us for nothing at the end of the season (Elneny’s amortisation is so low after 8-years at the club it was not worth factoring in), but cost us around £6.5m a year in wages.

Considering they will not need to be replaced, that is a huge saving that can be put towards covering the increased outgoing.

The second one is further increasing revenue.

Champions League revenue for this year will make a huge difference. We can probably expect to earn around £80m more from this season’s European exploits in comparison to last year’s Europa League. That would more than pay the difference.

We can also look at selling some of the academy graduates that are not up to grade – I am thinking Arthur Okonkwo (who since writing is leaving us on a free) and Charlie Patino. you would expect those two to raise us around £10m combined. That £10m can go straight into purchasing new players.

So if we get things right in terms of outgoings this summer, we could comfortably finance a move for £180m worth of new signings without our costs increasing dramatically.

And whilst the net profit merchants will point to a £70-80m net spend, we will all know this does not really matter. What matters is what is in your accounts and that is amortisation and book value.

In the 3rd installment of this mini-series, I will explore the 5 players on my list, and the financial implications of signing them against what we could be selling. I will also further explore the salaries of those who might leave compared to those coming in and see if we can end up with a “net zero” summer.

Have a great day.

Keenos