Tag Archives: She Wore A Yellow Ribbon

Do not blame Arsenal for the FA Cup draw

If Arsenal get through against Hull in the fifth round of the FA Cup, a quarter final tie against Watford is what awaits. And to every non-Arsenal fan’s fury and frustration, Arsenal were once more drawn at home.

Since Arsene Wenger became Arsenal manager, we have been drawn at home in the FA Cup 39 times. And drawn away 27. In a 50/50 chance, Arsenal have been drawn at home 59% of the time.

“But that does not add up, it must be a fix” I hear the less well educated (Spurs fans, Northerners) cry.

Well it does not add up because you do not know statistics.

Yes, it is a 50/50 chance of being at home, but that does not mean that when the data is crunched, you should see an exact 50% split. Especially when the data pool is as small as 66.

Do not believe me? Flip a coin. 66 times. Write down how many heads, how many tails. I did it. 37 heads, 29 tails. Or 56% heads. You see, what you must remember is that each time you flip the coin, or a ball is drawn, the previous times have no barring. Each individual event has a 50/50 chance of happening each time. In other words, just because you flipped heads last time, does not mean you will flip tails this time.

Now of course, the larger the data pool, the closer to 50% you will get with a 50/50 chance. So if I flipped my coin 1,000,000 times, it will be closer to 50% than when I flipped it just 66 times. Because what it does not account for his runs, streaks. For example, I got 9 heads in a row when doing this task.

At some point, the statistics say that I will probably get 9 tails in a row and it will even itself out. That is true. But over time it will even out, not over just 66.

I bet if we increased our data pool, and rather than looked at how often Arsenal have been drawn at home since Arsene Wenger took over, we went for the entire history of Arsenal, the statistics would be closer to 50%. Arsenal are just on a streak of home games, just like I had a streak of heads.

It is just the luck of the draw.

“Arsenal always get easy draws” I hear the bitters cry out as a secondary argument.

Well this once again is not Arsenal’s fault.

In 2013/14, is it Arsenal’s fault that Manchester United could not beat Swansea at home in the 3rd round? Or in the fifth round that Manchester City knocked out Chelsea, before getting knocked out by Wigan Athletic? And do we just forget that Arsenal knocked out Spurs, Liverpool and Everton that season?

Fast forward to 2014/15. Chelsea lost at home in the 4th round to Bradford. Is it Arsenal’s fault that they were unable to face Chelsea due to them being unable to win at home against a League 2 side? No.

Is it Arsenal’s fault that Spurs could not get past a then-bottom-of-the-table Leicester City at home? Or that Manchester City lost to Championship side Middlesbrough? Arsenal can not help it if our opponents keep losing before we play them. Coincidently, had Manchester City had won, we would have played them in the 5th round, where we instead knocked out Middlesbrough.

In the 6th round of the 2014/15 season, Arsenal played away to Manchester United, and won. So that is Manchester United, Liverpool, Everton & Spurs beaten in 2 seasons. Not our fault Chelsea and Man City lost before we could play them.

And then the semi-finals. Liverpool lost to Aston Villa at Wembley, before Aston Villa were thrashed by Arsenal in the final. I am sure it would have been great for Steven Gerrard’s last game in England to be in an FA Cup final, but it is not Arsenal’s fault Liverpool did not make it, but Gerrard and his team mates.

Even this season, Spurs lost at home to Crystal Palace – the 2nd time in two years that they have been knocked out at home,

So opposing fans, you can moan all you like, but it is not Arsenal’s fault you keep getting knocked out before you get to play the mighty Arsenal. Maybe if your sides were better, you might actually get the chance of playing us in a semi final or final?

And has anyone actually looked to see who other teams play on route to winning the FA Cup?

Well the last time Spurs won it in 1991, they obviously beat Arsenal. But their route to the semi final? A 4th tier side (Blackpool) and 2nd tier sides (Oxford United, Portsmouth & Notts County). Arsenal were the first top tier team they played that year.

How about Manchester United in 1998/99? Their treble year? It is never mentioned that they were drawn at home in every round of the FA Cup. All that is mentioned is that they won it.

And that is what is key. Who wins it. No one remembers who you played on the way. No one really cares.Portsmouth played one Premier League side when they won the FA Cup in 2008. Wigan Athletic just the 2. But who cares? No one.

It does just make me laugh when the draws happen. Because at the end of the day, it is a 50/50 chance of you being drawn home or away, and it does not matter who you play as long as you win. History will remember the winners. Not who they beat.

The only certainty that there is in the FA Cup is that over the last 25 years, Spurs have not won it. And it is for that reason that they are so bitter.

Bring on Hull, bring on Watford, and let’s go to Wembley again!

Keenos
Follow @KeenosAFC

Arsenal v Swansea set to be re-arranged for FA Cup replay

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The weekends draw against Hull City is bad news for fans of Swansea City, as it is likely that their Premier League game against Arsenal will be re-arranged to allow the FA Cup replay to take place.

Looking at the fixtures list, and taking into account the implications of the Champions League, it is the only mid-week that is available between now the the FA Cup Quarter Final –

As you can see, there is not much time between now and the FA Cup Quarter Final.

Now some of you will be screaming “Arsenal do not play in the Champions League the weekend before the QF” Well you are right, but also wrong.

UEFA’s dictatorship dictates that national federations may not schedule top level games or cup matches that clash with Champions League or Europa League.

Basically, they do not want an FA Cup, La Liga or Serie A game to take away any of the viewers from their tournament. It is basically greed. They do not want their own TV viewing figures to drop, and therefore reducing the people that see their sponsors adverts. They basically bully national federations with “If you want to play in our competitions, you have to agree to our rules.”

They do the same with governments if they wish to host major tournaments – the IAAF also do it with the Olympics – ensuring little to no tax is paid by either the organisation or their sponsors.

What this leaves the FA, Arsenal & Hull with is three options:

Re-arrange the Arsenal v Swansea and Birmingham v Hull City games, putting the FA Cup replay on either the 3rd or 4th of March. The re-arranged Swansea fixture will then be moved to the week commencing 18th March
Play the FA Cup reply on the same weekend as the QF games. And then re-schedule the QF match for when the QF replays will be (and pray that the QF does not go to replay)
Schedule the game for when the Champions League is, but have it finishing before 7.45pm so that is does not clash with Champions League games – Barcelona recently played a match against Sporting Gijon in La Liga kicking off late afternoon

The Swansea fixture is the most likely, and easiest for all involved, to move.

Looking forward into the future (if Arsenal get through), the Premier League and Arsenal could have some headaches coming up. If Arsenal make the QF of the FA Cup, and are taken once more to a replay, and get through to the semi final, we might see Arsenal having to play a fixture after the season has “ended.”

If Arsenal make the Semi Final, requiring a replay in the QF, it leaves one free week to play 3 fixtures.

Even if we do not require a QF replay, it still leaves one game having no where to go, as the QF replay week will be used for Swansea, and it would still leave us to have to re-arrange the Swansea and Sunderland game into the same week to ensure all games are completed before the end of the season.

Of course, this is all just speculation at the moment, if Arsenal lose to Hull, the re-arranged Swansea game will take place where the FA Cup QF game is and there will be no need to reschedule any further games.

It could be even worse for Manchester City if today’s game against Chelsea go’s to replay. With next week being the League Cup Final, they already have one game to re-arrange. They could end up having 4 to find space for.

As a travelling fan, it is frustrating to not be able to take advantage of advanced rail tickets. I feel for Swansea fans who will be unable to get refunds. I feel for WBA fans who still await a date to play Arsenal. And I feel for ourselves, who are going to have to potentially wait until the last minute to purchase what will then be a £100 rail ticket to get to Sunderland (via Newcastle).

Sorry Swansea.

Keenos
Follow @KeenosAFC

What is wrong with goal shy Arsenal?

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January 13th, Anfield. Liverpool 3 – 3 Arsenal.

When Olivier Giroud scored Arsenal’s 3rd in the 55th minute, it was our 7th goal since the turn of the year, following another 3 against Sunderland in the cup, and a one nil win at home to Newcastle.

Since that date, Arsenal have played 7 games. Scoring just 6 goals.

In those 7 games, we have scored in just 3 of them, Leicester, Bournemouth and Burnley.

Arsenal at the moment are having a major problem hitting the back of the net. The statistics make grim reading.

It is not for the want of trying. We have 112 shots in that period. That averages out at 16 shots a game. Or 19 shots a goal.

In four of the games, the BBC have named the goal keeper as Man of the Match. But this betrays the truth.

Whilst all 4 did have excellent games, and all made key saves to ensure they kept a clean sheet, Arsenal’s strikers did not exactly work them hard. Many of the shots ended up straight down the keepers throat.

Yesterday against Hull was a perfect example. Eldin Jakupovic. Of the 11 shots on target, from memory (and I might be wrong, I think I am still drunk) only two really pushed him as a keeper.

The free kick brilliantly tipped onto the post from Joel Campbell, and Danny Welbeck’s deflected shot. The rest of the shots on target were straight at him. I would be disappointed to have let any of them in.

And it was the same against Leicester, Southampton & Stoke. Plenty of shots straight at the keeper. We made them look good.

Individual players go through struggles in front of goal throughout their career – unless you play in Spain. But it seems that our goal scorers have synced their poor form.

Olivier Giroud has failed to score since that 55th minute strike against Liverpool. It is his longest goalless run since he went 8 games without a goal at the back end of last season. He does not look like ending it any time soon.

Having been our star player last season, Alexis Sanchez has been in awful form this. His shot in the second half which was closer to hitting me (block 11, 19 rows back) than hitting the back of the net. It summed up both his season, and Arsenal’s current form. He has just 3 goals in his last 16 games for club and country.

Moving on to Theo Walcott. Yesterday his over all play was atrocious. His place in the Arsenal side is clearly under threat, as the right hand side is definitely somewhere we can improve next season. He is currently doing nothing to put his name in the hat to start next year. In his last 19 games, he has just 2 goals.

Having scored 16 goals in 2013/14, and 11 in 2014/15, Aaron Ramsey has just 5 this season. And only 2 in his last 11 games. Another key contributor unable to score a goal.

Joel Campbell & Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain have contributed 4 goals this season to The Arsenal. Frankly not good enough for a team that so often plays on the front foot.

Even our creators are not scoring. Mesut Ozil. In his last 12 games, he has just 2 goals. He creates a lot, but with just 6 goals in 35 games this season is not good enough for someone his talent.

And then we come on to Santi Cazorla. Yes, he has been injured since November, so can not be blamed for the current dearth in Arsenal goals, but even before his injury, he had not been a threat going forward.

In fact, Cazorla’s last goal for Arsenal was a year ago today. A penalty against Crystal Palace. That is a run of 37 games without a goal. If you take out penalties and free kicks, he has just 1 goal since 28th January 2014. That is one goal from open play in over 2 years.

Cazorla has not just lost his shooting boots. He has burnt them in a barrel, given the ashes to Tim Peake who released them into space when on the International Space Station, never to be seen again.

Arsenal’s forward line has never misfired so badlyOf course, the ying to our lack of goal scoring form is the yang to our defence.

Since conceding 3 against Liverpool, we have conceded just 3 in the proceeding 7 games, keeping 4 clean sheet along the way.

Whilst we were goal shy against Hull yesterday, at no point did we look like conceding, keeping them to just 1 shot on target.

Hopefully, sooner rather than later, it all clicks into place. The chances we are creating hit the back of the net, and we keep it tight at that back. That will win us games, win us the league, win us the FA Cup.

Arsenal have a problem upfront. And it does not look like being resolved any time soon.

Keenos
Follow @KeenosAFC