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Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur – North London Derby Preview

Arsenal negotiated the first of three hugely important fixtures in seven days by beating Olympiakos 3-1 in Athens on Thursday night. 

After taking care of business overseas, the focus turns to a fixture against an old rival situated just up the Seven Sisters Road. Sunday’s north London derby. 

Scoring three away goals in Greece gives manager Mikel Arteta the luxury of being able to field a first choice starting lineup, with an opportunity to rest regular starters for the second leg of their Europa League clash on 18 March.

Whoever Arteta chooses to play from the outset, individual mistakes must be eliminated for his side to have any chance of victory against Tottenham Hotspur. Errors when playing out from the back have cost the Gunners in recent weeks and, with the lively duo of Heung-min Son and Harry Kane in wait, Arsenal must ensure to make the right decisions when put under pressure. As fans know after Sead Kolasinac’showler against Spurs in July, lapses of concentration can be ruthlessly punished in this encounter.  

An inability to play intricate, error-free football makes Alexandre Lacazette a more suitable option. If Bernd Leno frequently elects to go long, the Frenchman’s ability to hold the ball up and bring other attackers into play means a direct approach from Arsenal does not have to be all hit and hope. 

Although Tottenham are enjoying a resurgence in the Premier League, winning their past three league matches, JoséMourinho has yet to settle on a familiar partnership at centre-back. Unfamiliarity in the heart of Spurs’ defence could be exploited by Arsenal, with captain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scoring eight goals in his last eight appearances in all competitions. 

The return to form of Gareth Bale, who notched a brace in wins against Burnley and Crystal Palace means Kieran Tierney may not be able to bombard down the left flank to the same extent. In what will be a fascinating individual duel, the Arsenal full-back must focus on neglecting Bale’s influence before bombing forward. 

The pace of Tierney’s opposite number Sergio Reguilón may see the Gunners attempt to channel their attacks down Tottenham’s left-hand side. Starting Aubameyang on the left wing when Tierney ventures forward and Martin Ødegaard or Emile Smith-Rowe dropping into the half-spaces from the No.10 role allows for overloads to be created in that area. 

Discipline is always a factor in a game as hotly contested as the north London derby. Both sides will be brimming with passion even if they will be doing battle in an empty arena. Mourinho, famed for leaving no stone unturned, will be aware of Arsenal’s poor disciplinary record under Arteta. They have been shown nine red cards since the Spaniard took charge in December 2019, more than any other Premier League side. In a match notorious for being decided by the finest of margins, Arsenal cannot afford to give Spurs a numerical advantage. 

Kane and Son may be the most lethal partnership in the league. However, Arsenal have played well enough in recent weeks without getting consistent results, to come into Sunday’s clash with confidence. 

Mourinho’s preference to favour a more pragmatic approach in big games gives the Gunners the chance to impose their authority on the contest. Arteta has shown himself to be equally cautious in matches where more is at stake, yet Arsenal should take the game to their opponents in an effort to avoid playing catch up if they concede first. 

A Spurs win would put the Lilywhites ten points clear of their north London rivals, so the onus may be on the Gunners to draw first blood. Although Arsenal have ten more games to make up ground and push for a top six spot, the magnitude of this rivalry means the north London derby would be a good place to start. 

Not only would a victory give bragging rights to fans on the N5 side of the divide, but it could boost the squad’s confidence even further, serving as a reminder that the players are capable of dragging Arsenal back into the mix for European qualification via the Premier League. 

Arteta demonstrated his prowess in cup competitions last season by guiding his men to the FA Cup last campaign. Despite this achievement, he knows the importance ofimproving upon last term’s eighth placed finish, not to mention a maiden win against Spurs as a manager. Sceptics may point to 2018-19 when Unai Emery’s selection became muddled and muddied, costing Arsenal a top four place. However, as we have seen so far this season, Arteta possesses a much larger, more experienced squad which lends itself to rotation. 

This is why Arsenal’s best bet of qualifying for Europe is to rediscover some domestic form and there is no better place to start than Sunday’s crucial north London derby.

Zac Campbell

Match Report: Olympiacos 1 – 3 Arsenal

Olympiacos (0) 1 Arsenal (1) 3

UEFA Europa League, Round of 16, Leg 1 of 2

Stadio Georgios Karaiskakis, Piraeus 185 47, Attica, Athens, Greece

Thursday, 11th March 2021. Kick-off time: 8.00pm

(4-3-3) Bernd Leno; Hector Bellerin, David Luiz, Gabriel Magalhães, Kieran Tierney; Willian Borges da Silva, Thomas Partey, Granit Xhaka; Martin Ødegaard, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Bukayo Saka.

Substitutes: Dani Ceballos, Alexandre Lacazette, Rob Holding, Cédric Soares, Nicolas Pépé, Calum Chambers, Pablo Marí, Mohamed Elneny, Emile Smith-Rowe, Mat Ryan, Gabriel Martinelli, Karl Hein.

Scorers: Martin Ødegaard (34 mins), Gabriel (79 mins), Mohamed Elneny (85 mins)

Yellow Cards: Gabriel

Arsenal Possession Percentage: 59%

Referee: Daniel Siebert (Germany)

Assistant Referees: Jan Seidel (Germany), Rafael Foltyn (Germany)

Fourth Official: Christian Dingert (Germany)

Referee Observer: Karen Nalbandyan (Armenia)

VAR Team (UEFA): VAR Marco Fritz (Germany); AVAR Sascha Stegemann (Germany)

Attendance: A minimal amount of attendees (circa 3,000) due to coronavirus restrictions

Perhaps history will repeat itself? Tonight’s match is taking place in the same stadium as the Benfica game was played in, back on 25th February! Let us hope for the same result this evening. Mikel Arteta has called for the boys to win their next five matches, in order for Arsenal to springboard to bigger and better things at the end of this season, which will be a tough call, no doubt about it. This game will be a perfect test for everyone; as we saw last year, Olympiacos are certainly no pushovers, capable of a very powerful sting in the tail, so everyone has to be on top form out there tonight Let’s go!

After the missed chance that Martin Ødegaard completely blew after just two minutes, one was starting to wonder if this was going to be one of those nights for us. Keeping that thought in mind, just three minutes later, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang was desperately unlucky not to score, when his point-blank header was saved by the Olympiacos goalie, Malheiro de Sá, when he pushed the ball on to the crossbar and out into open play. We certainly had the best of the opening stages of the match, with Kieran Tierney working well out on the left, seemingly cutting inside at will. Although the home side did start to look quite dangerous, we recovered our composure and started to play the way that we know how. David Luiz had a weak free kick on target from twenty yards that was easily saved, and despite playing well, we were still capable of making sloppy mistakes that almost cost us dear. A poor back pass from Gabriel onto the feet of Bruma was thankfully saved by Bernd Leno, but these appalling lapses of concentration must really end. By the half-hour mark, we were racking up the free kicks outside the Olympiacos penalty area, and most of them were lost opportunities that ended up tepid attempts to score, when a bit more application surely would not have gone amiss. And at last, after thirty-four minutes, we finally took the lead, quite deservedly, when Thomas Partey slotted the ball to Martin Ødegaard who promptly advanced a few yards and hit a fabulous twenty-yard left-footed shot that the Olympiacos goalkeeper had no chance in stopping, let alone saving. Nothing like a goal to lift the collective spirits, and although we looked good, with five minutes left before the break, David Luiz made a terrible error in our penalty area, in which we were extremely lucky not to get punished. When will we learn? Gabriel received our only yellow card of the evening for a rather soft tackle, and as the first half petered out, we managed to consolidate, keep calm, not do anything too silly, and go into the break in the affirmative.

And so the second half started with the home side kicking off proceedings. What will the next forty-five minutes or so, bring? Thomas Partey possibly answered this question with a testing shot that Malheiro de Sá easily gathered up, two minutes after the restart. The Olympiacos back line started to make errors, just enough for our forwards to starting pushing and probing to find the gaps. Dani Ceballos replaced Thomas Partey after fifty-five minutes, and again, three minutes later, we shot ourselves in the foot, when a series of poor defensive decisions over the course of just seconds saw the ball come loose and that was all it took was for Youssef El-Arabi to stroke the ball home comfortablyfrom just outside the penalty area to level the scores on the night. With the scores as they are, we need to regroup and impose our collective will on this match, and quickly too, before something else goes horribly wrong. However much we tried to break through the Olympiacos defence, the more we were denied, with the home side getting most of the team behind the ball to stifle our play. With twelve minutes left of the match, a superb Willian cross made contact with the head of Gabriel who headed the ball firmly into the net, to restore our lead. After eighty-two minutes, Mikel Arteta made a triple substitution with Mohamed Elneny, Emile Smith-Rowe and Nicolas Pépé replacing Willian, Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard; almost immediately the changes bore incredible fruit. Mohamed Elneny hit the ball from twenty yards that gave the Olympiacos goalie no chance in saving it, and more importantly, his successful shot gave us a two-goal cushion. Alexandre Lacazette replaced Pierre-Emerick Aubameyangwith a couple of minutes left of normal time, to save collective legs for the North London derby on Sunday afternoon. Nicolas Pépé was unlucky not to score in injury time, when a firm Alexandre Lacazette pass flew across the six-yard box, only for an Olympiacos defender to clear the ball right from the tip of his boot. Despite a flurry of action from both teams in the five minutes of injury time, that was that.

Okay, we’ll take that. Despite the schoolboy errors, the lack of concentration by some of our defenders and a goalkeeping howler that led to the Olympiacos goal, we somehow got through this match as deserved winners. Arsenal can take comfort in bringing back to the Emirates a commanding lead next Thursday evening, a clear two-goal lead that we should be able to defend, in order to propel us into the quarter-finals of this competition. Fingers (and everything) crossed.

Remember everyone, keep the faith, get behind the team and the manager, as this season is going to be crucial for our future success in all competitions. Stick with the winners. Our next match: Tottenham Hotspur at the Emirates on Sunday, 14th March at 4.30pm (Premier League). Victoria Concordia Crescit.

Steve

Too Dearly Loved To Be Forgotten: Arsenal v Racing Club de Paris 1930-1962 by Steve Ingless (Rangemore Publications, ISBN 978-1-5272-0135-4) is now available on Amazon.

Arsenal make £92.2m operating loss

It is that day again where the brilliant Swiss Ramble gives his fantastic of analysis of Arsenal’s latest accounts.

His thread is below and I would highly recommend everyone reading.

For me the headline if the loss we made – and it will be the headline that most will be running with.

It is the operating loss of £92.2m rather than the loss after tax of £47.8m that is most concerning.

The operating loss (or profit) is the figure prior to player sales. As a business you do not want to rely on one off asset sales to make a profit – in the case selling a player.

If you rely on that strategy, eventually you have no assets left to sell – or the value of those assets decreases.

Arsenal should not be relying on selling a player to break even. But then we are in extraordinary times.

Our match day revenue dropped £17.5m following the cancellation of half a dozen home games last season.

Broadcasting is also down £64.1m. This is due to due to revenue from 10 games falling into 2020/21 accounts. Commercial revenue is up £31.4 with new deals having kicked in.

The other big change is the increase in player amortisation – IE transfers. This has gone up by £19.4million, which highlights the increased investment in the playing side of the squad.

So £92.2million is our operating loss.

Now there are two sides of a coin. One positive, the other negative.

Lets start with the positive.

The first tweet highlights that it is not Arsenal making huge losses.

The likes of Tottenham and Everton have already posted huge losses, and Manchester United and Liverpool are both expected to do similar.

According to Swiss Ramble, Arsenal’s revenue would have been £35million higher were it not for the drop in match day revenue and deferred broadcasting revenue. These losses of £54million were offset by £19million in cost savings during the Covid crisis.

So without Covid, we would “only” have made an operating loss of £57.2million. Or just £12.8million after player sales.

These figures show the importance of Champions League football.

Arsenal earned just £19.3million from the Europa League, whilst Tottenham who made the Last 16 generated £69.3million. That is a swing of £50million.

That £50million in additional revenue would have seen Arsenal make a post-tax profit even with Covid.

We also would have made an operating profit if Covid did not happen, once additional match day revenue for Champions League games is added in.

The concern for Arsenal is that even when European TV revenue is stripped away from the Big 6 club, we still have the lowest revenue – with both Arsenal and Tottenham generating £320million without European football.

So the positive is that without Covid, we still would have lost money, but just not a big a loss.

The negative is looking at this year, and next.

This year match day revenue will be almost non-existent. You can almost write off all of the £78.7m generated in 2020..

That alone would see Arsenal’s operating loss increase to £170.9million.

We also made just £16.79m in player sales in 2020/21 against £48.29m in 2019/20 (according to Transfermarkt). That is £31.5million less generated.

So our post tax loss, by the time you add the lack of match day revenue and drop in player sales could end up as high as £158million for 2020/21.

Very few businesses can absorb a £158million loss, which is why earlier this year we took advantage of the government loan scheme.

And next season things could get even worse.

Without European football, we will lose the £19.3million from the Europa League (if we do not make it). So any gain made from having fans back in the ground will be chipped away due to no European football.

A £19.3million drop from Europa League to no European football might not seem huge, but it will see us make a £60million loss against those teams in the Champions League.

And this is TV revenue only.7

Arsenal usually make £3.3million per game in gate receipts. Making the Champions League last 16 generates an additional £13.2million in match day revenue. And we do not know if commercial deals have a non-European football clause in them.

So not much positives about today, but well worth absorbing and understanding the data so that you can begin to understand why the club have been cost cutting and had to take out the government loan.

Keenos