Tag Archives: She Wore

Arsenal Transfer Window – What Could we have signed?

“Come and have a look at what you could have won” was a catchphrase from 1980s game show Bullseye. Host Jim Bowen would utter them words to the losing contestants as his glamorous assists would wheel out the star prize, showing them what they could have won, rubbing it in that they were a failure, and were only going to leave with their “bus far home”.

As the media listed who other teams had bought in the summer transfer window, whether it was listed in papers, or on the side bar on Sky Sports News, I understood how those contestants felt upon failing to hit 101. It was as if Sky Sports News was showing Arsenal fans what they could have won.

Even during our bad old days of selling our stars, and not replacing them, there was always only a handful of other players who joined a Premier League club that I would have though “he could do a job at ours.” Going through the list of players this year has left a bitter taste in many, including my own, mouths. The list of players that we could have signed is long and deep.

Aston Villa

Philipe Senderos – OK, maybe not the best person to start with, but Aston Villa are the first club on the list, and Senderos the first player the signed. Available on a free from Fulham, could he not have done a job as 3rd/4th choice centre back. Senderos’ last game for Arsenal was in February 2008. Whilst he is not a World Class player, he has since played for the likes of AC Milan and Valencia, and comes with a wealth of experience (at 29, he has played in 3 World Cups). Add in he knows the club well, he surely could have been a good candidate for a back up centre back?

Chelsea

Diego Costa – When Chelsea signed Costa, I was sceptical. At that point, he had been a one season wonder (last season being the first that he had scored over 10 league goals). 4 goals in 3 games show what a shrew signing he is. At £35million, he may turn out to be the signing of the summer if he finishes league top scorer and with a Premier League medal. He is certainly one many will be thinking “we should have gone for him”.

Filipe Luis – If it was not for Abou Diaby & Jack Wilshere, Kieran Gibbs and his injury problems would be highlighted as a major problem. Since Gael Clichy left us in 2011, Gibbs has missed 45 games through injury. He has played just 71 out of a possible 116 games. That is not good enough. At £15.8m, Brazilian international Filipe Luis would have been an asset.

Cesc Fabregas – Ah, the debate that raged throughout the summer. Should we have signed Cesc? My (albeit biased) thoughts can be found here. I stand by the view, that in what they do, Mesut Ozil, Aaron Ramsey, Theo Walcott and Alexis Sanchez we have enough fire power. However, a with a failure to buy neither a top striker (sorry Danny) or a defensive midfielder, you have to wonder if letting Cesc join Chelsea was the right move. Could a central midfield of Cesc Ramsey Ozil have worked? On top of that, signing Cesc, even to rotate with Ozil and Sanchez, would have stopped Chelsea getting him.

Loic Remy – Loicy Remy: 41 Premier League games, 20 Premier League goals, £10.5m. Danny Welbeck: 118 Premier League games, 26 Premier League goals, £16m. Nuff said.

Crystal Palace

Brede Hangeland – In similar vein to Senderos, Hangeland is an experienced Premier League centre back who would have been available on a free. With very similar attributes to Per Mertesacker (tall, good reading of the game, little slow) he would have been a perfect understudy for the German, with Chambers then being the back up to Koscielny.

James McArthur – A £7m deadline day signing for Crystal Palace, the Scotsman is a terrier in the middle of the park. A player I have rated since he joined Wigan during their Premier League days, he would have provided squad depth in defensive midfield. He would have come in on low wages, so even if a better option comes available in the future, he would not have taken up too much of a cost. With Mikel Arteta out injured, he could have done a job for us.

Everton

Romelu Lukaku – The big Belgium has his faults, as highlighted at the World Cup, but he has scored 32 league goals in the last 2 seasons, and at 21, will only get better. In comparison, Olivier Giroud has 27 goals. Danny Welbeck (3 years older) has just 37 goals in his professional carrer, and Yaya Sanogo (5 months older) has never scored a Premier League goal. Anyone care to answer why Lukaku is not an Arsenal player?

Hull City

Mohamed Diame – Another deadline day deal. We were linked a few January’s back. At £3.5m, and Arteta injured, he could have added some good muscle in the middle of the park. Then again, Diaby is back in training (or is he?)

Liverpool

Alberto Moreno – In the same vein as Filipe Luis, with Kieran Gibbs’ injury record, 22 year old Spanish International could have been a long term option. He only cost the Scouser’s £12million. We possibly could have offset a lot of that by sending Nacho Monreal back to Spain. Left back is certainly a position that we need to address in the near future. We could have done this window.

Mario Balotelli – Mad Mario. At £16m, he was worth the risk.

Manchester City

Fernando – Yet another defensive midfielder we missed out on. At £12m, he represents a bargain. Athletic and full of energy. Yes, Manchester City have been chasing him for a year, it it would have been a hard sell to steal him away, especially as it is likely he agreed to join them in February, when he signed his new contract with Porto. Unlikely, but we could have had him.

Later: Manchester United, Newcastle, QPR, Southampton, Stoke City, Sunderland, Swansea, Spurs, WBA & West Ham.

Keenos

 

Arsenal right not to go for £100million striker

So Falcao is off to Manchester United for a reported £6,000,000 deal, with Manchester United also expected to cover his wages. A lot of people are screaming ‘Why were Arsenal not in for him’ and perhaps for justifiable reasons.

Over the season, Falcao will cost Manchester United £18,000,000 in wages (the figure of £9.5m is the Net figure). Expensive, yes, but £24,000,000 for a player who could score the goals to drive Arsenal to the league title, it, on paper, is a steal.

However, the finances do not add up as clear as that.

Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil are currently Arsenal’s highest earners. Both on around £140,000 a week. That is £210,000 less than Falcao. Now it is highly likely that both have, in their contracts, a parity clause, meaning that were we to sign someone, they both get a wage increase.

So we are then in a situation here signing Falcao on £350,000 a week wages would trigger an increase in both Sanchez and Ozil to the same wages. Now lets do the math:

Falcao loan fee: £6million
Falcao wages: £18million
Sanchez payrise: £11million
Ozil payrise: £11million

Total cost over next 12 months to sign Falcao: £46million

But it is not over there. Sanchez and Ozil both have 4 years on their contract. There pay rise will be relevant for their entire contract. This will work out at approximately £40million each.

So what does this cost?

Falcao loan fee: £6million
Falcao wages: £18million
Sanchez payrise: £40million
Ozil payrise: £40million

Total cost of Falcao deal: £104,000,000

And then take into account that the rumours are that Manchester United have a compulsory purchase order of anywhere between £45m – £65m.

And this is without taking into account that the agents of Aaron Ramsey, Theo Walcott, Per Mertesacker and more will be knocking on the door as soon as they hear players earning 3 or 4 times the amount as them.

As for Manchester United, Wayne Rooney is already on £350,000 a year, so signing Falcao will not trigger any wage increases for other players.

Yes, Falcao would have been a brilliant addition to the Arsenal squad, but at a suspected cost of over £100,000,000, I would rather we left it.

Keenos

 

Could failure to get out of group benefit Arsenal?

So the Champions League draw is done, and once more Arsenal have a tricky group. Once more drawn against Borussia Dortmund, “Welcome2Hell Part II” with another trip to Turkey, this time facing Galatasaray, and trickier then it might seem games against Belgium champions Anderlecht.

Here is a controversial theory for you, would Arsenal actually benefit more by finishing 3rd and dropping into the Europa League? Hear me out.

Trophies

It is a well used statistic since Wednesday’s win over Besiktas that Arsenal have now qualified for the Champions League 17 seasons in a row. In that 17 years, we have made the final just once. We have only got past the 1st knockout stage 6 times. Just 35%. Without being defeatist, we will not win the competition.

Our record of having not beaten a top side in England also stretches to Europe. As soon as we have faced a bigger side (Barcelona, Bayern Munich, AC Milan, Chelsea, Manchester United) we have been knocked out.

So what will happen this season? We will finish 2nd to Dortmund in the group, get drawn against one of Europe’s Elite in the 1st knockout stage, and get knocked out. We have little chance of winning the trophy.

Rather than finish 2nd, would it not be better to finish 3rd? Drop into the Europa League, take it seriously, and compete for a trophy we have more chance of winning? The only time in the last 17 years that we dropped into the Europa League (or UEFA Cup), we made the final, and lost a game we should have one.

It might seem a crazy idea to want to get knocked out, but ask yourself the question, would you rather:

a) Be knocked out in the 1st knockout round
b) Have a trip to Stadion Narodowy in Warsaw to look forward to in May?

Money

The Champions League is a massive money making machine. Last year, in making the 1st knockout round, Arsenal €27,232,000 in prize money and TV money.

Using last year’s figures, just by qualifying for the Champions League, Arsenal will get:

  • €8,600,000 for participating
  • €11,132,000 in TV money
  • €1,000,000 for every group game win
  • €500,000 for every group game draw

So if Arsenal finish 3rd in the group, and get knocked out (with, say, 2 wins and 2 draws), they will pocket €22,732,000. That would be just €5,000,000 less than the previous year. This can easily be made up by progression in the Europa League. Juventus received an additional €2,000,000 in prize money for making the semi-finals of the Europa League last year and an additional €5,025,115 in TV money. A similar performance by Arsenal generating a similar amount of money would see Arsenal earn €29,757,115 from European football. So making the semi final of the Europa League would generate more €€€€ than making the 1st knockout stage of the Champions League.

A final point to take into consideration is gate receipts. Arsenal would have made circa €4,000,000 in gate receipts from the game against Bayern Munich. A semi-final Europa League game would mean four extra games. That would generate €16,000,000 in additional revenue.

So were Arsenal to get knocked out at the group stages, and then make the semi final of the Europa League, the club would make an additional €14.5million in revenue.

Winning the Europa League would add another €5,000,000 in prize money! Not bad for ‘failure.’

Coefficient Points

Coefficient points are a calculation that UEFA uses to rank club sides for seeding in future competitions. Due to Arsenal being continually knocked out at the 1st knockout stage of the Champions League, our coefficient points have wained, resulting in us currently sitting in 10th. Luckily, due to Manchester United and Valencia not making the Champions League, we remained top seeds. However, with the likes of Burussia Dortmund and PSG hot on our heels, another early Champions League exit would see us slip behind them, and into pot 2 next season.

Best case scenario? Arsenal finish 3rd, rather than 2nd, and cash in on the extra coefficient points available in the Europa League. 5 of the 9 sides currently above Arsenal have played Europa League football in the last 4 seasons.

Last season, Juventus, in failing to make the Champions League knockout stages, got 5 more coefficient points than Arsenal. Benfica, by failing in the Champions League, but winning the Europa League, they gained 10 more coefficient points.

Infact, Benfica highlight how more beneficial it could be to get knocked out. In the 4 completed season’s that UEFA are using for their coefficient calculation for next years competition, Benfica were knocked out of the Champions League group stages 3 times. In all 3 of those seasons, they went on to gain more coefficient points than Arsenal, despite Arsenal making the knockout stages each year. This has resulted them in being over 20 points above Arsenal. Despite failing in Europe’s premier competition.

To secure Arsenal’s place as a top seed next season, Arsenal would be better off being knocked out at the group stage and having a run in the Europa League, than being knocked out at the 1st knockout stage of the Champions League.

 

Odd as it might be, there is plenty to gain from finishing 3rd rather than 2nd in the group stage. Better chance of winning a trophy, greater chance to earn more money, and increased coefficient points.

Keenos