We all saw yesterday how the Telegraph had estimated Arsenal’s transfer budget at £50m. Whilst this figure is no more than a guess, when you look at the accounts, it is probably not too far from the truth.
With the amortisation of transfer fees being able to be spread over the length of a contract for accounting purposes, plus how deals are structured, annual wages and agents fees, coming up with a £50m budget is always an article for hits. Click bait. We will probably see other figures banded about before the end of the transfer window.
What is for certain is, unlike years gone past, Arsenal do not need to sell to buy. The club is now making decent profits – all of which can be put into player transfers. What this means is funds raised through selling players can go straight into the transfer pot, rather than being used to offset stadium debt.
So earlier in the week we discussed the 10 players who are likely to follow Wenger out the club. Our guestimate is that these players could raise up to £100m for the club. All of which will go towards buying new players.
Now obviously the transfer fees are pure guesswork, like World Cup betting, but I do not think they are too unreasonable. I would be very surprised if we get anything lower than the “low” column, and would imagine they are closer to the “high” column.
Some players leaving do depend on those who come in. As mentioned in yesterday’s blog, I can not see us letting Mustafi leave unless we buy two centre backs.
As for the wages, I have left the loanees deliberately blank. This is due to things not being clear who is currently paying their wages – Arsenal or the loan club.
If the loan club is paying 100% of the wages, they will not be declared on the current wage bill and therefore Arsenal make no saving.
By moving these 10 players on, Arsenal save in the region of £400,000 a week. Enough to cover the salaries of 2 or 3 top drawer players to replace them.
If you remove Mustafi from the equation, players sales will raise between £34m -£70m. You add this to our expected profit of the year, and things are looking healthy.
I would not be surprised to see Arsenal end up spending between £100-£150m this summer For this we should be able to get in the goal keeper, centre back, defensive midfielder and attacking midfielder we desperately need.
All of this is back of a fag packet stuff.