Following a poor run of results, there was a lot of negativity around the Arsenal.
Over the last 7 days we have blogged about how people need to calm down. That the title was still in our hands. And that if you negatively overreact to every poor result it will make it a long hard run in.
Saturday showed how quickly the game can change.
2-1 down at half time in the lunchtime kick off, the negative, anti-Arteta drafts were getting written by some. For those on the ground all we cared about was having a quick drink and returning to the stands to back the team.
Two late goals saw us come from Birmingham with 3 points. Great result.
We left the pub to get the train home with Man City 1-nil up and in control. About 10 minutes into the journey home a cheer went up. Nottingham Forest had equalised!
10 minutes later, another cheer went up. It had finished 1-1.
At 1.15, it was looking like we would get 0 points and City would probably extend their lead at the top of the table to 3 points. By 5pm, it was Arsenal that were two points clear.
And that is why some fans need to calm down with their OTT reactions. There are still a lot of games to go in the league.
My maths on what is needed to win the league this season has been fairy static for the last 5 or 6 games – 87 points should be enough for it.
City showed again on Saturday that they are not going to put a run of 10 or 12 wins in a row to romp away with the league. They will continue to drop points. As will Arsenal.
To get to 86 points, City will need another 34. 11 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their remaining 14 games.
They are average 2.16 points a game this season. In their last 5 games they have averaged just 2 points a game. They will need to average 2.43 points to reach that 86 mark.
So potentially 87 points will be enough to see us crowned champions. The question is can we get there?
15 games to go. We basically need to win 11 to win the league. We still have some tough games to play – visits to Man City, Newcastle and Liverpool.
But we could lose all 3 of those games and still hit 87.
7 winnable home games:
4 winnable away games:
But we should not get too excited.
Everton away and Brentford at home we’re winnable home games. And Nottingham Forest away was a winnable game for Manchester City.
If we do win those games, I think we are champions. If we don’t then we will need to take something against Chelsea, Liverpool or Newcastle.
And if we hit 87 and City do end up with more. Well I will have no complaints.
Now let’s stop looking too far forward. Leicester City away up next. Whilst Man City gave Bournemouth on Saturday.
They play that game off the back of a Champions League trip to Leipzig.
One of us will drop points next weekend.
I’ve said I won’t start to dream until after game 25. Now I’m wondering if I should wait until 30.
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