Author Archives: keenosafc

Arsenal getting it right in the transfer window

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“Another defensive midfielder”
“Another goalkeeper”
“Another defensive midfielder”
“Another centre back”
“Arteta has a fetish”

It is baffling that Arsenal are criticised for not signing players, then when deals are done (and just awaiting to be announced), are then criticised for saying players.

Whilst we all know we need a striker and a winger, we also needed a new defensive midfielder, which became two when Thomas Partey decided not to sign a new deal. Right sided central defensive cover for William Saliba was also essential, as was back up for David Raya.

Whilst Kepa and Christian Norgaard might not be the most exciting names, both are experienced Premier League campaigners who are ready to go from day one. The pair played regularly for mid-table Premier League sides last year, with Norgaard captaining Brentford.

I have always said a “squad player” at a title-chasing team needs to be good enough to start regularly for a mid-table team, and Kepa and Norgaard are that. And the fact that we are getting them for just £15 million combined is shrewed business.

We could have signed more exciting players as backup dancers. Spent £20-30 million on each of them. But they would unlikely have been better than Kepa and Norgaard. And every penny over the £15m we have spent on the pair would have been a penny less than we would have to spend elsewhere.

And ultimately, the club need to sign the players they think will improve us, whilst understanding the bigger picture and impact each deal will have on other deals. They do not sign players to appease cry-arsing fans.

It has to be remembered that, with Norgaard, he is replacing Jorginho in the squad, and not Thomas Partey.

The Ghanian is our first choice defensive midfielder, and he is being replaced by Martin Zubimendi.

Taking into account Partey’s fitness problems over the 5-years at the club and his huge wage, it is hard not to see Zubimendi as an upgrade.

Zubimendi is Spain’s second best defensive midfielder behind Rodri, and was being chased by Liverpool, Real Madrid and Barcelona. He chose Arsenal because he believed in Arteta and adds an aspect of control in the centre of midfield. A fabulous signing.

And then last night it broke that Arsenal were close to securing a deal for Valencia centreback Cristhian Mosquera.

I will be honest, I do not know much about Mosquera beyond that he was first choice for Valencia last season, is 21 today, has been playing at the Euro U21 tournament and will cost less than £20m.

Reports are that he is quick and strong, and therefore should be natural cover for William Saliba.

Last season, Saliba’s cover was a mixture of Ben White, Jurrien Timber and Takehiro Tomiyasu. None of whom are a specialist centreback. Bringing in Mosquera would mean we have specialist cover in that area.

An eye also needs to be kept on Saliba’s contract – his current deal expires in 2-years and there has been little talk of a new one. Taking into account how Real Madrid have operated in the transfer market recently, I would not be surprised if they are already in his ear about a move in 2027.

If Mosquera is rated highly, getting him in now will give him 2-years to grow and settle before potentially replacing Saliba. Of course, I do not want the Frenchman to leave but this deal does feel like it could be future proofing our defence if he decides to depart.

So there we have it. 3 squad players signed (or on the brink of signing) for a combined £35m, and a first choice defensive midfielder for £55m. £90m spent, with all 4 likely to be announced next week (it was always said that we would start announcing deals from 1 July).

And if you are still unsure why we signed those players:

The graphic above really highlights the impact of the signings have had on the midfield down. We now have proper quality squad depth from goalkeeper, through the defence and into the midfield. 2 players for every position.

If you do not think the players we signed we essential, cross them out of the graphic above and see what you are left with….

And finally, yes we need a new striker, and a new winger. But this is not FIFA or Football Manager. You can not sign players in a “certain order” just for good PR.

A deal for someone like Rodrygo will not be done until after the Club World Cup. And it might take a few weeks after as he will want to go straight on holiday and turn off his brain. I would not be surprised if we do not see his situation resolved until August.

In the meantime, we are looking at alternatives, and Eberechi Eze is a name that has broken recently.

With his release clause, Eze would be a quick deal to do. But signing him would mean no Rodrygo.

Rodrygo needs to be our number one target, and we just need to be saying to Eze that if the deal for the Brazilian is not done by the first week of August, we will pivot to him. Now whilst some might say “why would Eze join if he knew he was second choice” – get in the real world. Most players realise when joining a new club that they were not first choice.

And in August, if Rodrygo joins, Eze would still have plenty of options on the table elsewhere.

As for the striker, the situation is unchanged with Viktor Gyorekes and Benjamin Sesko. There is still brinksmanship between Arsenal, sporting and RB Leipzeg.

I beleive Sesko is our first choice, but the sticking point is the fee. RB Leipzeg apparantly need to make some sizeable sales before 1 July, so Arsenal will be hoping to use this to drive the price down. And if the deal is not done by then, I think we will quickly pivot to Gyorekes.

All in all, Arsenal are getting it right this transfer window.

We have recruited squad players without breaking the bank. Players that raise our floor. And we are still continuing to work on a couple big name signings that will raise the ceiling. But these bigger deals take time.

Keenos

Arsenal need to repeat Summer of ’22

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Cast your mind back to the summer of 2022. What were you doing? Covid measures had been finally lifted at the beginning of the year and we were in the midst of our first proper summer in 3-years.

Arsenal had just finished 5th in Mikel Arteta’s first full season, with 2 defeats in the last 3 games of the season (including one away to Spurs), leaving everyone a bit deflated. In response, we acted quickly and decisively in the market with the bulk of our business done before we stepped on the plane to our USA tour.

The result was we thrashed Chelsea 4-0 in Orlando as a taster of what might come, before beating Sevilla 6-0 in the 2022 Emirates Cup.

Following pre-season, there was excitement in the air of North London. Everyone was delighted with the business we had done and how quickly we had concluded the deals.

The pre-season results springboarded us into the new campaign and we won 9 of our first 10 games. Proof, if needed, that getting your business done early can lead to an explosive start to the season.

Considering the tough start we have to the 2025/26 season, we need to look at that summer of ’22 and try and replicate. Try and get the deals done quickly and have the squad settled before we go off to Singapore.

You would find very few, if any, that would disagree with the above. That like in 22, we “must act fast” and that by taking our signings on tour it could catapult “the team to an electric start of the season”.

So lets have a reminder of what happened in the summer of ’22:

10 June 2022- Arsenal sign Marquinhos from Sao Paulo on long-term deal
21 June 2022 – Porto agree to sell Fabio Vieira to Arsenal in £34m deal
27 June 2022 – Matt Turner: United States goalkeeper joins Arsenal from New England Revolution
4 July 2022 – Gabriel Jesus: Arsenal sign Brazil forward from Manchester City for £45m on long-term deal
22 July 2022 – Arsenal sign Oleksandr Zinchenko from Manchester City on ‘long-term’ deal

Now reading above, your first thought might be “really?” when you look at those dates Gabriel Jesus and Olexsandr Zinchenko signed.

By the end of June all we had signed was an unknown talent from Brazil a back up keeper and a big money risk from Portugal. Our two big name signings were not secured until July.

This will probably raise eyebrows from those moaning how slow off the mark we are this summer and saying we need to act more like it is 2022. Those people are clearly misremembering the facts. And as an example, Zinchenko did not actually sign for us until halfway through the Florida Cup tour, a day before we played Chelsea.

By the time this blog is live, we might have already announced Kepa and Martin Zubimendi. That will mean we are ahead of where we were for the 2022 summer transfer window – a number 2 keeper signed (same as 2022), and a first team player signed (which did not happen in 2022 until July).

Imagine the outcry if come the end of June, we have still not secured either Benjamin Sesko or Viktor Gyorekes? Yet the same people will point to the summer of 2022 window as a success, when we did not sign Gabriel Jesus until July!

And we fly out to Singapore on 23 July. That is more than a month away so plenty of time to secure our major signings before we go out on tour.

I think it is important to remember that if you are pointing to another year and saying “this is how it should be done”, you can not then criticise the club when those corresponding dates have not yet passed.

The summer of 2022 we acted quickly. But lets not pretend that all the deals were done before 21 June. At that point we had only signed the unknown from Brazil.

So yes, we need to replicate the summer of ’22. But let’s not then change the narrative of what actually happened during that window.

Have a good Saturday!

Keenos

Why are Arsenal “overpaying” for Martin Zubimendi

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With all the talk around amortisation, it is easy to forget a key component of transfers – clubs either need to have the cash in the bank of credit / loan facility available to actually pay for the player.

Whilst amortisation allows the cost of transfers to be spread over the length of the players contract within the annual accounts, teams still need to stump on the entire transfer fee upfront. That is, of course, unless they can agree on instalment terms with the selling club. And this is what Arsenal have done with Martin Zubimendi.

Rather than paying the £51 million release clause upfront, Arsenal have agreed a deal in the region of £56 million, spread over a reported 3-years.

That will mean this summer our cash outlay on Zubimendi will be around £19 million. A short-term “saving” of £37 million.

Now some will criticise Arsenal for “overpaying” for Zubimendi and merely “pushing debt down the road”. But there are some important factors to take into account.

Cash balance

Arsenal’s most recent financial results (year ending May 31, 2024) showed a cash balance of £66.8 million.

This is the time of year when our cash balance is at its lowest – almost all costs for the season have been paid for, and the next batch of season ticket money, broadcasting and sponsorship has not yet hit the accounts. However, much of this incoming cash already earmarked for existing costs (next years salary, stadium running costs, existing transfer amortisation costs).

It is easy to say “We can spend £200 million, amortise it over 5-years and it only costs us £40 million”. But whilst this is correct for the accounts, you still need to have the £200 million upfront. And that is a huge chunk of cash to have in the bank.

What about a loan?

Most football clubs have loan or credit facilities that they are allowed to draw down on.

This facility is not like a loan you and me will get, where we need £10k, go to the bank and get given a £10k loan. What clubs have is a loan facility of, say, £100 million. But they do not get given the £100m straight away (like we would in the loan). What they essential get is a line of £100m credit which they can then access as and when they need it.

But that credit is not interest free. And also why use a credit or loan facility if you do not need to?

Often, paying a little bit extra to the selling club can cost less than the interest associated with drawing down on your credit facility.

And likewise, you want to keep a credit facility for “emergencies”. If you can do a deal with the selling club with instalments, you then do not dip into your available facility and still have that available. The next deal you do, the selling club may not wish to do a deal in instalments.

But why would the selling club accept instalments?

It is often asked why selling clubs would sell a player and then receive the money over 3 or 5 years.

Back in 2020, we wrote an article about how clubs may use “factoring” companies to get 100% of the fee paid to them upfront.

The simple version of the article is that the selling club sells the debt to a financing company. The club will usually recieve 5-8% less than the money owed to them, with that margin being the financing companies profit. Therefore the buying club has to pay over the agreed minimum release clause to cover the cost of factoring.

In this case, Real Sociedad would still get their £51m this summer. Arsenal get to spread the deal out over 3 years freeing up cash (and credit facility if reuiqred) to make additional signings, and the factoring company makes a cool £5-6m for servicing the debt.

So when do we expect Zubimendi to be announced? I would either say today or Monday.

Keenos