Category Archives: Arsenal

Can Arsenal sell XI, buy 2, and have a stronger squad as a result?

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Yesterday, I wrote a blog how Arsenal were likely to sell a full Starting XI in the summer, raising close to £150m.

The XI was:

The most predictable response was “how can we sell 11 players? We need squad depth”. And yes, you are correct, we do need squad depth. But that depth needs to be filled with quality.

We could, for all intents and purposes, sell the above XI and replace them with just two or three. And the squad will be stronger.

For a starting point, lets look at minutes played.

The XI above have played a combined 756 Premier League minutes for Arsenal this season. 7 of the players have not played a single minute.

Runarsson – 0 minutes
Trusty – 0
Mari – 0
AMN – 0
Pepe – 0
Balogun – 0
Tavares – 0
Soares – 28
Nelson – 103
Smith Rowe – 111
Tierney – 514

So straight off the bat, the 7 with 0 minutes could exit the club without having an impact on where our squad is now. And Balogun aside, I would be surprised if anyone would debate keeping any of them

Of the 756 minutes, Kieran Tierney has played 514 of them.

As I mentioned in yesterdays blog, I like Tierney. He is not a bad player, but he does not fit Arteta’s system.

Takehiro Tomiyasu (when fit) has been the preferred option as Olexsandr Zinchenko’s replacement over Tierney.

The Scotsman is a proper good honest pro, and wants to play first team football. I think even if Arsenal did not want to sell him, he would push through a move. And Newcastle is the obvious option.

Newcastle need a left back, Tierney would walk into their team, and they could easily pay us the £30-40m we would command. Move up north would also see Tierney be back closer to his family.

In terms of replacing him, if Tomiyasu gets fit I think the Japanese full back will be 2nd choice on both flanks. He will then be backed up by Lino Sousa, Brooke Norton-Cuffy and Reuell Walters.

Sousa is an exciting left back who has been playing in the “inverted” position for the youth team this season, whilst Walters is a centre back turned right back in the same mould as Ben White.

I still hold a candle for Norton-Cuffy, but he is more a traditional “chalk on the boots” full-back.

Could we let Tierney leave without replacing him? Our options would then be White, Zinchenko, Tomiyasu, Sousa, Walters. It would come down to Tomiyasu’s injuries issues.

That leaves 3 players. Cedric, Nelson and Smith Rowe.

We will not miss the 28 minutes played by Cedric this season. The only issue will be whether we can find a buyer – he has yet to start a game for Fulham in the Premier League since joining them on loan.

One thing is for sure, whether we sell him or loan him, we do not need to replace him.

That brings me onto the final two with minutes – Nelson and Smith Rowe.

After his goal against Bournemouth, I questioned whether 10 seconds of greatness was enough for a new Nelson deal?

My gut then was no, and what has happened since reinforces that opinion.

A few fans got caught up in the post-Bournemouth excitment, saying things such as “Arteta clearly likes him” and “he deserves a new deal.

Arteta likes Nelson so much that he has not started him in gthe Premier League this season. Just 103 minutes played. Last season it was just 19. Season before that 70.

192 minutes of Premier League football in 3 seasons. But some people think Arteta really rates him.

We take the squad forward by buying better than what we have.

Next season, we need better cover and competition for Bukayo Saka. Nelson is not it. Neither is Pepe. That means a new signing. And what then for Reiss?

He barely got on the pitch when Saka and Gabriel Martinelli were our only 2 wingers. Now we have Leandro Trossard and hopefully a new right winger coming in, how many minutes will he play?

Nelson is 23-years-old. It would make zero sense signing him up to a new 5-year deal on £60k a week for him to not play. That is £15million better spent elsewhere.

And for those that say “well lets just give him a 2-year deal”; get in the real world. Nelson would not accept that. This is real life. Not a game.

Finally Smith Rowe.

In yesterdays blog I spoke about how much I like Smith Rowe, but he just can not shake off his injuries.

Were he to stay fit and stay, I would be delighted. But I also think if a big bid came in for him – £40m+ – we would be crazy to turn it down.

Smith Rowe is cover on the wings and can also play inside as an 8.

Were we to sign a new winger, he would be 5th choice outwide behind Saka, Martinelli, Trossard and the new guy.

Inside, we have Martin Odegaard, Fabio Vieira and Granit Xhaka. I also expect us to sign another midfielder who will provide cover and competition for Thomas Partey at 6 and Xhaka at 8. That does not leave much room for Smith Rowe.

An offer of £40m for your injury prone 5th choice winger / 5th choice 8? That income would basically fund the Saka cover…

Smith Rowe is one of those that we will get a replacement in for. But that replacement will be someone who plays the duel role of 6 and 8. A certain West Ham midfielder springs to mind.

And if we need further cover? We still have Charlie Patino. And I have not even mentioned Albert Sambi Lokonga’s future in either of these blogs…and I forgot about Jorginho.

Finally Balogun.

He has not played a minute for us, and I understand those saying “give him a chance”. But I can not see how we can accomodate Gabriel Jesus, Eddie Nketiah and Folarin Balogun.

Remember, before Jesus’s injury, Nketiah had not started for us in the league this season. And we have since added Trossard as an extra option upfront.

So it comes down to Nketiah or Balogun. The double striker dilema I spoke about in December. I goes, one stays.

If you want us to retain Balogun, then Eddie must be sacrificed. And you are still in the same situation as above with us selling a striker this summer.

As a side note, I would also expect us to look at having Saka’s understudy being able to play through the middle. Arteta likes his forward line to be versatile and mobile. Martinelli is also a striker option.

So the XI above. We could sell them all and replace them with:

New central midfielder who can play 6 and 8
New winger who can also play up top
Potentially a new left back if Tomiyasu injuries continue

11 out, 2 or 3 in. And becauce we are buying so few, we can invest more heavilly and recruit a better quality of player.

“But that still leaves us short Dan” some will now say. Lets look at the XIs:

Ramsdale
White Saliba Gabriel Zinchenko
Partey
Saka Odegaard Xhaka Jesus
Jesus

Turner
Tomiyasu Holding Kiwior Sousa
NewDM
NewRW Vieira Jorginho Trossard
Nketiah

Others: Hein, Walters / Norton-Cuffy, Elneny, Lokonga, Patino, Marquinhos

If we make the two big signings (DM, RW), we would have 21 senior players and 5 development as part of the first team squad. Plus Elneny and Lokonga (who the new DM would be replacing).

This season we have had 17 players play 200 or more Premier League minutes.

Adding a new DM and new RW who are better than Nelson, Lokonga and Elneny would strengthen the squad and replacing players who just do not play.

We would be retaining 16 of the 17 players with more than 200 minutes to their name, and adding a further 2 senior players.

“But Manchester City have greater strength in depth, and we have Champions League football”

Manchester City have 18 players that have played 200+ Premier League minutes. They have 24 players in total in their first team (including thier 2 back up keepers).

So what I am proposing above is a very similar squad size to City’s.

We would have 18-20 players that you would consider “senior” and would play 200+ minutes. then the 2 spare keepers and the younger players.

“But City’s players are better than ours”. Granted. But this is because they recruit quality over quantity.

Would Smith Rowe, Balogun or Nelson get near City’s squad? No.

We move forward from this season by buying better than what we have. And that means the likes of Nelson, Balogun (or Nketiah) and Smith Rowe get moved on for a Declan Rice, a Michael Olise and others.

So can we sell XI, buy 2, and have a strong squad?

Yes.

Keenos

Arsenal set to sell an entire starting XI this summer – raising almost £150m

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With Chelsea’s recent transfer spending, a lot has been written about how bloated their squad is. But they are not the only ones who will be looking to rid themselves of double figure senior players this summer.

As it stands, we have a 26-man senior squad – although not all of these need to be registered under Premier League rules. We also have 8 senior players out on loan taking us to a 34 man squad. And that is before any further academy promotions (we have a huge chunk of players that have recently turned 20).

We will need to sell (or loan) a dozen players this summer to bring Arteta’s “working” squad back down to around 25/26.

(Note: Before a smartarse says “34-12 is 22” you have to take into account 2 or 3 new signings and a couple of youth promotions that would take us back up to 26).

Kieran Tierney

I suspect Tierney will be Arsenal’s biggest name first team player to leave us in the summer.

The Scotsman has seen himself drop down in the pecking order at Arsenal with Oleksandr Zinchenko as first choice.

Tierney is not a bad player, but he does not fit Arteta’s system.

We play with our full backs tucked in, with Zinchenko and Ben White looking to add extra midfield options in attack. Tierney is more of a traditional full back who likes to get chalk on his boots, get round his winger and put crosses in.

I do think this is a valuable option for Arsenal when we are chasing a game. Someone that can come on and make the pitch a bit wider in attack. But the modern game is about having a “like for like” replacement in case of injury rather than a “different option”.

Earlier this season, we saw Takehiro Tomiyasu start ahead of Tierney when Zinchenko was out injured.

With Ben White’s form, I expect Tomiyasu to become “first replacement” at both left and right back. New signing Jakub Kiwor has also previously played left back, defensive midfield. You would have to think that experience would make him another option behind Zinchenko.

Throw in Brooke Norton-Cuffy and Lino Sousa, and the strength in depth is added to with the presence of the teenagers.

Tierney’s unsuitability is shown in his passing – this season he is our clubs worst passer with a pass accuracy of just 79.3%. He has never finished a Premier League season with an 80%+ pass accuracy.

As it stands, Zinchenko completes 89.2% of his passes, Ben White 86.3% and Tomiyasu 84.9%. Throw in Tierney’s injury record and it makes complete sense to cash in on him.

Tierney would have no shortage of interest from home and abroad. Could easily see the likes of Leicester City and West Ham entering a bidding war for him which would see a fee towards £30m.

Emile Smith Rowe

I love Emile Smith Rowe. He is a fantastic player. But he also has huge injury issues.

His latest injury has resulted in him playing just 111 Premier League minutes this season.

I have followed his career since his academy days. And even back then he had injury issues.

Last season was his first injury free one of his career and he showed what he can do. But this seasons groin injury is a repeat of an injury he has had a few times.

A groin injury wrecked his expected breakthrough season in 2018/19. He later also suffered a hamstring injury which saw his season end.

He has suffered muscle injuries in four of his five seasons since 2018. Injuries have led him to miss nearly a year of football.

Like Jack Wilshere, I feel he will never be injury free. And at 22, this summer might be a good time to cash in on him.

You would expect Arsenal to be able to get around £40m for him. And my concern is the next long term injury he suffers will see his value plummet.

Cash in this summer and replace him with someone who has a better injury record.

Nicolas Pepe

Whenever Arsenal’s record signing leaves, we will take a big loss on his transfer fee.

The Ivorian joined us for £72million in 2019, meaning that he will have just one year left on his contract this summer.

Due to the way the accounting works, any sale in excess of £15million would result in a “book profit” for the financial year:

2019/20 – £14.4m amortised
2020/21 – £14.4m
2021/22 – £14.4m
2022/23 – £14.4m

That means that come the 2023/24 financial year (and season), we will have just £14.4m left to account for. Any incoming transfer fee will be considerd a “profit” in the 2023/24 accounts.

He has played OK at Nice, so I would be surprised if did not get an offer in that region for him. Would not be surprised if we try and get around £20m for him, but then agree to pay half his £140,000 a week wages (with his new deal at a name club being £70,000).

That would make a deal be worth £16.36m net to Arsenal, and a small profit based on what is left to be amortised.

Cedric Soares

The Portuguese right back looks on his way to Fulham on loan (it might even be completed by the time we hit publish on this).

Initial reports are this deal will not contain an option to buy. But if he becomes a first team regular for the Cottagers, and they stay up (they will!), a permenant deal will probably be done in the summer. I would expect around £3m for him.

Nuno Tavares

Arsenal need to get better at selling players. And Nuno Tavares will show if we have improved in this region.

It has not really worked out for the raw Portuguese full-back in the 2-years since signing for us.

He is clearly a physical talent, and a very naturally gifted technically footballer. But he does not have the positional discipline to play in Arteta’s structured system.

Capable of brilliance one minute, and then found horrendously out of position the next, he has remained inconsistent whilst on loan at Marseille.

Whilst he is erratic, he has also established himself as Marseille’s first choice left back as they chase a top 3 finish in France. That will be enough to see them qualify for the Champions League.

Arsenal blocked an “option to buy” clause when he went out on loan. Signed for £7m, you would have to think a sale will be done for any offers over £15m.

Reiss Nelson

I feel for Reiss Nelson. He has not had it easy.

In 2017, it was predicted he would be the next superstar to come out of the academy. A loan deal to 1899 Hoffenheim could not have gone better and comparisons were being made between himself and childhood friend Jadon Sancho.

2019/20 was supposed to be a breakthrough season for him. And he was expected to make a huge impact in the Europa League. But then hamstring and ankle injuries began to take hold.

In his place, another academy graduate was given the chance – Bukayo Saka. And just like that, Nelson’s route to the first team was blocked by someone 2-years younger and more talented.

As Saka grew in importance, Nelson disappeared off the scene, playing just 70 minutes of Premier League football in 2020/21. A poor loan spell at Feynoord followed.

Now 23, and injured again, you have to feel his time at Arsenal is over, despite that goal against Bournemouth.

Nelson’s contract expires this summer. The clubs only hope of a fee will be compensation if he joins another English side. If he moves abroad, it will be a free transfer. £0m.

Ainsley Maitland-Niles

We triggered the one year extension in Ainsley Maitland-Niles’ contract last summer, prior to loaning him out to Southampton.

The hope would have been that a good loan spell would see his value rise, and we could then get a decent fee for him this summer. If anything, his stock has further fallen at Southampton.

It would have been 3-years since Arsenal pulled the plug on a £20m move to Wolves. And also 3-years since he won his 5 England caps. His fall off has been dramatic.

It is not just his fault, we have also messed him about.

Nlocking that Wolves move was a mistake all round – it would have generated Arsenal key funds and allowed AMN to get on with his career. He would play just 486 minutes of Premier League football in 2020/21 before being loaned out to WBA as they got relegated.

We then blocked a move to Leicester the next summer. He would play just 265 minutes before another January loan. This time to Roma.

In 2022, we tried to sell him but there were no takers and he ended up on loan with Southampton. He has started just 5 league games for the side proping up the table.

With a year left on his contract, I would not be surprised if we sell him for any offer in the summer. Even if it is under £5m.

Folarin Balogun

With 17 goals in 24 games in France for Reims, Balogun is showing that he is transitioning from talented youth product to senior staff. But it could be too late for him to have an impact at Arsenal.

Gabriel Jesus is the clubs first choice striker, and Eddie Nketiah is proving week in, week out that he is a suitable replacement.

At this point, some will argue “with Champions League football next year, we need more squad depth”. But I feel that depth is provided by both Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard – both of whom have played down the middle and could do the job as 3rd choice striker.

When you look beyond the goals of Balogun, he is a player that our Stad DNA system would probably reject.

For Reims, he has a pass accuracy of just 67.4%. That is way down on our worst passer of the ball Kieran Tierney (76.7%). Jesus (81.9%), Martinelli (82.3%), Saka (82.8%) and Nketiah (83.3%) are all vastly superior on the ball.

With just 1 assist this season, you have to question whether he has the all round play to be a striker at Arsenal.

4 of Balogun’s 17 goals have also come from the penalty spot and he sits 5th on the Ligue 1 top scorers list – below the likes of Alexandre Lacazette and Wissam Ben Yedder.

He turns 22 in July, so he is probably at his peak transfer fee wise whilst he still has the “potential tag”. I would expect £30m with some sell on clauses and maybe even a buy back clause.

Pablo Mari

I refuse to accept Pablo Mari as a flop signing.

Gabriel Magalhães was always our main target to play left sided centre back, but was not available in January 2020 when we were desperate for extra defensive reinforcements.

Mari was probably the best deal we could do in terms of the attributes Arteta wanted, his experience level and cost.

He was signed with an obligation to buy, which covered the Gabriel deal which was not complete.

Covid and then injury did disrupt his Arsenal career, but cost just €7m

Monza have an obligation to buy if they do not get relegated (currently sit 13th), with the clause reported to be in the region of €7m (£6m).

Auston Trusty

The American was signed from Colorado Rapids in 2022 and immediately loaned to Birmingham City.

At the time, the feeling was we had signed him to “put him in the European shop window”. We paid just £1.5m for him.

He has been exceptional for a struggling Birmingham City this season. Probably their Player of the Season. And this will lead to plenty of interest from top-end Championship sides or those lesser Premier League teams. You could certainly see someone like Leeds United moving for him with their American links.

A case could be made that he returns to Arsenal as 4th choice centre back, but this would require Rob Holding leaving. The fact Trusty would take up a non-home grown playing spot makes this scenario unlikely.

I can see Arsenal trebeling their money on Trusty. Would not be surprised if he left us after a single year for £7.5m+.

Rúnar Alex Rúnarsson

Anyone need a keeper for 5-a-side on Thursday?

Keenos

Should Arsenal just recruit Brighton’s recruiters?

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Last few days we have been linked with Brighton’s Moises Caicedo and Kaoru Mitoma.

We have recently signed Ben White and Leandro Trossard from the south-coast. Brighton have also recently sold the likes of Marc Cucerella to Chelsea, Yves Bissouma to Spurs and Dan Burn to Newcastle.

Those 5 mentioned above generated £170m for Brighton. They cost them under £50m

Caicedo and Mitoma cost Brighton around £7m combined. If both are sold this summer, they will raise over £100m between them.

Throw in Alexis Mac Allister and Tariq Lamptey and their recruitment has been excellent.

This has led some to say “Arsenal should just recruit Brighton recruiters”.

There is no doubt Brighton have bought and sold brilliantly in the last couple, but would poaching their scouting network really be a solution?

Brighton’s Golden Spell

Brighton are doing brilliant in the transfer market. But are they just in a golden spell?

They are not be the first club who have signed and extraordinary amount of fairy unknown talent in a short period.

Leeds United did it in the late 90s, recruiting the likes of Harry Kewell, Lee Bowyer, Jimmy Floyd-Hasselbaink, Erik Bakke, Olivier Dacoure, Mark Viduka.

Their recruitment led them to competing with Arsenal and Manchester United, and peaked with a Champions League semi-final.

Three years after reaching that semi-final, they were relegated and spent 16 years in the Champions and League One before regaining promotion to the Premier League in 2020.

In the early 00’s, Newcastle recruited Hatem Ben Arfa, Chiek Tiote, Papiss Cisse, Demba Ba and Yohan Cabaye.

In 2012, Newcastle finished 5th and a result, they gave chief scout Graham Carr a new 8-year deal.

The next season, they dropped to 16th and in 2016, 4 years after handing out the new 8-year deal, they were relegated.

The year after signing his 8-year deal, Carr oversaw the recruitment of Vurnon Anita, Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa, Matthieu Debuchy, Massadio Haidera, Yoan Gouffran, Moussa Sissoko, Gael Bigirimana and Kevin Mbabu. Only Debuchy and Sissoko went on to have any level of success with them.

Both clubs set an example that a golden spell of recruitment does not last forever.

The Bigger Picture

The year after Graham Carr’s new contract, he recruited Debuchy and Sissoko. Had I left it at that, you would’ve said “he continued his good work.”

But that year they signed 9 senior players and Debuchy and Sissoko’s fees combined made up just 21.6% of their spending.

A lot of sides that have a golden spell actually end up using the “throw a lot of eggs at the wall and hope a couple do not break” policy.

For example, the year Newcastle signed Cisse and Ba, they also signed Manchester United’s Gabriel Obertan.

The year Brighton signed Trossard and Lamptey, they also signed Adam Webster, Neal Maupay, Matt Clarke and Aaron Mooy.

Trossard and Lamptey cost the club £14m. The aforementioned four cost over £40m.

It is easy to talk about the successful recruits, but what is ignored is those players that are bought in that do not make it.

Meanwhile, at Arsenal we perhaps spend too long discussing the poor recruits (Albert Sambi Lokonga, Nuno Tavares, Cedric Soares, Pablo Mari) rather than celebrating the successful ones.

Continuing at Brighton, in 2020 they signed Caicedo. They also bought Jakub Moder, Michal Karbownik, Andi Zeqiri, Jan Paul van Hecke and Joel Veltman. They also signed Danny Welbeck and Adam Lallana on free transfers.

Was their transfer business that great in 2020? Or was it one gem and half a dozen duffs?

In 2021, they spent £65m.

Marc Cucerella and Kaoru Mitoma have turned out to be good buys. Enock Mwepu, Kacper Kozlowski, Abdallah Sima, Denis Undav and Kjell Scherpen not so good.

Cucerella and Mitoma made up less than 30% of their transfer spending that summer. The pit cost less combined than Brighton spent on Mwepu.

To find a Caicedo or Trossard, you need to sign 5 or 6 similar level players and hope one pushes on. I am not sure that is a transfer policy we would want Arsenal to have.

We know the players

I pretty much guarantee that every top player Brighton have signed, Arsenal we’re aware of and watching.

Top clubs have vast scouting networks and will be watching 100s of players at any one time. “Discovering” a player is much easier than it used to be. There will be multiple Premier League scouts watching lower league Brazilian games.

The key is deciding which of those 100s of players you will sign. And it is not easy.

There is a huge gulf from youth team level abroad to being Premier League ready. There are many hurdles for a young, foreign player. And it is not just about their ability, but their attitudes the way they settle.

For ever Gabriel Martinelli, Cesc Fabregas, there are 1000s of foreign lads that join Premier League academies that never make it. And this is beyond just Arsenal.

We choose players A, B & C, Manchester United choose D, E & F, Brighton go for G, H & I. Just because we do not sign a certain player, it does not mean we were not aware of them.

There are no guarantees when signing these young players. It is guesswork as to who will progress.

One thing young players need to progress is senior game time. We play at a higher level than Brighton and can not always afford to give these young players the time they need to progress. And that is the next issue

We can’t give them the game time

Looking at Brighton’s transfer policy, Albert Sambi Lokonga and Nuno Tavares would probably have been two of the sort of profile players they would have signed.

They are no too different in profile to Cucerella and Mwepu, costing about the same amount.

At Brighton, Tavares and Lokonga would have got more game time, under less pressure. They would have been able to make the mistakes they have made at Arsenal, and grow from them.

Arsenal can not afford to babysit players. To try and coach young players through a tough time and continue giving them game time when they are not really ready.

That difference is why Arsenal are title challengers and Brighton are mid-table.

Had Lokonga spent 2-years playing for Brighton, how much more would he have kicked on? Would he now be a £50m midfielder, a perfect replacement for Thomas Partey? Would we have been moaning “why didn’t we sign him 2-years ago”.

We, naturally, can not have as much patience with players.

Alexis Mac Allister is a great example of this.

The Argentine was signed by Brighton in 2019 for €8m, then loaned straight back to Argentinos Juniors. The next season he remained in Argentina, on loan at Boca Juniors.

In his first full season for Brighton, he started 13 games. In 2021/22 he started 22. It is only really this season he has become a regular first teamer.

It has basically taken Brighton 4 years to develop Mac Allister into the top midfielder they now have, having spent €8m on him. Would Arsenal, and Arsenal fans, have that patience? Or by the time he hits 22, having been with us for 2 years, would he be in the “dead wood” column.

I love Moises Caicedo and think he would be a great long-term replacement for Partey. But the Ecuadorean certainly was not a Cesc Fabregas wonderkid.

Manchester United were heavily linked when Brighton made the move to sign the-then-19-year-old. He didn’t make an appearance in his first half a season having signed in January.

The next year, he was loaned out to Belgium side Beerschot. After 14 appearances he was recalled by Brighton and played just 664 PL minutes in the second half of the season. Just 8 games.

This season he has kicked on, becoming a first team regular following the departure of Yves Bissouma.

Had Arsenal signed him, he probably would have followed a similar path, being loaned out. But he would not have kicked on this season as he would have been playing second fiddle to Partey, Xhaka and others.

And as mentioned above, had Brighton signed Lokonga and us Caicedo, would their fortunes also be reversed? Caicedo on loan at Palace and labelled “too raw” whilst Lokonga, with more game time and under less pressure, kicking on?

Different expectations

Fan expectations is also key.

Kaoru Mitoma is flavour of the month after some eye-catching performances.

But the Japanese international is 26 in June, and has played just 20 Premier League games for Brighton since joining in 2021.

If Mitoma had signed for Arsenal in 2021, played just 20 league games, and be 26 at the end of the season, would we hype him up? Or would we be saying “cash in and get someone better” in the summer.

I would imagine most would be saying “only bought to sell shirts”.

At Brighton, Mitoma is a star. At Arsenal he would be a flop.

Different level

And ultimately, Arsenal are at a different level than Brighton. Just like Real Madrid are at a level above Arsenal.

Due to the level they are at, Brighton can take risks on players that are levels below Arsenal are seriously considering. They can give them more game time and see them progress into senior players.

Brighton sign 6 or 7 players for £50m. The best player of the bunch is then sold for £50m.

Arsenal can cherry pick those better players from Brighton, rather than having to spend £50m on 6 or 7 players ourselves and trying to develop one.

Both teams spend £50m, but Brighton do it on numerous players and Arsenal on one. And of those numerous players, it is not clear and obvious at the time who will be the star.

And it works above Arsenal too.

Arsenal were able to sign Martin Odegaard from Real Madrid because they had better players in that position and couldn’t give the Norwegian the game time to progress.

He joins Arsenal, playing at a lower level, and becomes a superstar.

Our superstar central defensive partnership of Gabriel and Saliba also highlight the levels.

Manchester City, Real Madrid, Barcelona, PSG et al knew about these stars, but also knew both were raw. Arsenal took a chance and both are now amongst the best defenders in the world.

How long will it be until one of those clubs come in? Offer Arsenal £70 or £80m for one or the other?

Brighton could not attract Gabriel, Real Madrid could not give him the game time to develop, he was at the perfect level for Arsenal.

And that happens throughout football. There is a food chain and you sign the players depending on the level.

The Brighton’s of this world sign 6 or 7 players for £5-10m each. The Arsenal 2-3 sign players the level above for £20-30m. Real Madrid sign two players for £50m+.

A final thought, Brighton now remind me of Southampton a few years ago.

The Saints had recruited well. Signed the likes of Virgil van Dijk from Celtic, an uncapped defender with a mistake on him.

They were able to give him the game time to work through the mistakes and 3 seasons later he joined Liverpool for a world record fee for a defender.

Liverpool could have signed him from Celtic. Any team could. But that does not mean he would have had the game time he needed to become the player he did.

It is not as easy to just go and poach a recruitment team. It is easier – and cheaper – to use that club and others as a de facto feeder club.

Let Brighton spend £50m on their 5 or 6 players. Let them develop, and then we will spend £50m on the one that rises to the top.

Less risk, same money spent.

Have a good Saturday.

Keenos