Morning all. A later than normal blog as I embark on our last away day of the season.
What a season it has been following The Arsenal home and away for the first proper time since Covid. What a journey this season has been.
The last away game of the season is always a special one, regardless of where we have finished in the league.
It is usually a train journey filled with reflection. With memories of the season. And today will be no different.
Those that go away regularly will know football can become a bit of a sideshow to the entire trip. A 90 minute distraction from a day drinking in shit northern towns.
The memories you build going away, win, lose or draw, stay with you for life. And the friendships you make are the same.
So today it is Nottingham Forest. The City Ground. A place I do not have happy memories of having been to both FA Cup defeats in recent years.
Today Forest have everything to play for. A win will probably guarantee their place in the Premier League for next season. Their support will be behind them from the first minute.
We will need to match their intensity – something we did not do against Brighton. And the concern is with hopes of the league now almost non-existent, will players begin to switch off. Drop their level.
The season has been terrific, but it risks finishing with a whimper. We need to win the next few games so that we can take some momentum into next season.
And the train journey home tonight will see the focus switch from reflection on this season to expectations on next. Can we win it? Who do we need to sign? Who needs to be sold? And who is sorting the trains out?
The difference between the two clubs is not mental strength, it is not that Arsenal bottled it. It is that Pep Guardiola has a squad filled with more quality. That allows him to rest and rotate with out affecting the starting XI. The result is players are fresher at the business end of the season.
Improve the top end is how you improve squad depth. You buy better players than what you have, and those in the same positions “drop down one on the ladder” as a consequence. And then the player at the bottom end of the ladder is sold on as no longer required.
You maintain that 22-24 man first team squad, but fill it with more quality.
But we are not Manchester City. We can not afford to go out into the transfer market and spend big without a plan on how to finance the transfer window. And we do not want to go down the Chelsea route of offering big contracts and mortgaging our future.
That means if we want to go out and do the business we want this summer, some fans favourites might end up being sold out.
The first name is Granit Xhaka.
Firstly, who would have though Xhaka would be a fans favourite a couple of years ago? He has gone from “we need to get rid and no one wants him” to “we can not let him go” when the links to Bayern Leverkusen materilised.
At the moment our options in the 6 / 8 are Xhaka, Thomas Partey and Jorginho (I have excluded Mohamed Elneny).
We are chasing Declan Rice who would improve our first XI.
Rice could replace either Partey in the deeper midfield position, or Xhaka further up the pitch. You throw in Jorginho and it would give 4 good options in those positions, and plenty of game time for all.
But then you have Moises Caicedo.
The links with the Ecuadorian will not go away, with many thinking that we could go for him and Rice. But this raises two issues.
The first is squad space, the second is financial.
If we signed Rice, that would leave us with the 4 options mentioned above. 5 options in that position is probably one too many.
Acquiring Caicedo and Rice would mean one of the existing 3 would have to depart. And the likely one to make way would be Xhaka.
Partey is on huge wages. And with personal issues also hanging over him, Arsenal would struggle to find a buyer this summer. Would anyone really take on his £200k+ a week wages? No.
Meanwhile, Jorginho has only just joined. And selling him would probably cost us money as we would not get close to what we still have left to amorotise within the accounts.
That leaves Xhaka.
Still only 30, Xhaka has a year left on his contract. He will be considering his future, and if a club in Germany offers him a 4-year deal (as Leverkusen reportedly have) then he would be happy to move.
Money is also not a problem. Xhaka is not on huge wages, and he would earn a lot more signing for a club on a 5-year deal summer against staying with his for another year and then getting a 4-year deal in 2023. His self-value has probably never been higher since he joined us.
So if we want Caicedo and Rice, Xhaka will probably be out the door (note: this was written before the recent breaking news).
And if we are talking about squad depth, we then have: Rice, Caicedo, Partey and Jorginho as our options.
Considering we started the season with Xhaka, Partey, Lokonga and Elneny, this is a great example of how purchases at the top of the squad improve the depth at the bottom.
The second issue is financial.
Rice is likely to move for around £80million plus add-ons. Caicedo will go for around £60m plus add-ons. That would be £140m+ spent on two midfielders. And we would still need a new central defender and an additional winger / forward option.
Realistically, I expect us to spend around £100m on new players prior to an exits. Which in turn means we need to sell if we wish to buy beyond this price. And that brings me onto Emile Smith Rowe.
Talk was that Mikel Arteta was looking to convert Smith Rowe into a 8. It is a position that I always felt he could play. But if Rice and Caicedo join, than the Hale End graduate would be 5th in the pecking order for that position – or 3rd behing Martin Odegaard and Fabio Vieira as the more attacking 8.
Out wide, he is behind Gabriel Martinelli, Bukayo Saka and Leoandro Trossard.
Another forward or wide-man is a target this summer. That player could become a 4th option outwide – or we go for an out and out forward (Dusan Vlahovic, Ivan Toney) and Jesus is then utilised ouwide.
The widemen we have been linked to – Moussa Diaby, Xavi Simons and Ansu Fati – are all better options that Smith Rowe. Likewise, Jesus would be a better option.
Smith Rowe was fantastic last year. But this year the injury issues that have plagued his senior career returned.
He is certainly someone that we could make huge money on, without it really affecting squad depth.
If we sign Caicedo and Diaby (for example), Smith Rowe is then 5th choice midfielder and 5th choice winger. A fee of £40million would allow us to further expand the squad.
Kieran Tierney is another senior pro that might be sacrificed.
Tierney is back up left back that could fetch well above £30million. That is further funds that could be reinvested if Arsenal are hoping to have a big summer.
Now a debate is to be had as to who replaces Tierney. It would be a pointless exercise if we have to spend £30m to replace him. We might as well keep him.
But if the club are confident that Takehiro Tomiyasu could be cover for Zinchenko (and White), further backed up by Reul Walters, Lino Sousa , Jakub Kiwior and a potential new incoming centre back, then selling Tierney would be a “free hit”.
At a basic level, we would be swapping Tierney for a new right sided centre back.
Last on this list is Folarin Balogun.
We have already discussed that if you buy better than what you have, someone at the bottom end most leave. And in the forward positions that is Balogun.
If we get in another top forward, that leaves Balogun and Nketiah fighting it out to be 3rd choice. A position that in Balogun’s case he does not want to be in.
I would also much prefer the £30-40million thatr selling Balogun would generate. Funds that would go into financing someone at the top end of the squad.
A window that saw us sign (for example) Rice, Caicedo, Josip Sutalo and Dusan Vlahovic would cost us close to £200million.
Selling Xhaka, Smith Rowe, Tierney and Balogun would raise in and around £100million – maybe even more.
If we were looking at an initial investment based on self-sustainability of £100m, these sales would further finance more moves.
The acquisitions would dramatically improve the top end of our squad, whilst the departures would not be a huge blow.
And we have not taken into account the future of Nicolas Pepe, Albert Sambi Lokonga, Nuno Taveres, Pablo Mari and Rob Holding. Although I would be surprised if any of these leaving would generate more than £20-30m combined.
From Smith Rowe to Patino, Xhaka to Balogun, sacrifices will be made this summer.
You can not demand we sign “better players” then also cry when a player you like is sold to make way for that better player.
Final thought: We have come up a little short this season.
If we have Rice, Caicedo, Vlahovic and Sutalo in our squad this season, rather than Xhaka, Smith Rowe, Tierney and Balogun would we be champions?
Keenos
Arsenal fans – have you checked out our pet collection yet?
Last night really should put a stop to the “Arsenal don’t have the minerals talk”. The truth is, Manchester City are just better than us.
Just like they were better than German table toppers Bayern Munich when they beat them 4-1 on aggregate. Just like they were better than the 3rd place German team Leipzig when they put 7 past them.
And just like last night when they beat the great Real Madrid 7-0.
Manchester City are now on a 23 game unbeaten run in all competitions. They have won 40 out of the last 42 points in the Premier League. Are on course for a treble and 94 points.
If they hit 94 and win the treble, they will rightly be talked about as one of the best English teams of all time. And this achievement will blow what Manchester United did in 1999 out of the water.
And that is why Gary Neville is trying to change the narrative on this season, focusing on Arsenal rather than City.
Neville wants to be able to say “City only won the treble because Arsenal bottled it”. When the truth is, Manchester United only won the treble because we bottled it.
Penultimate game of the season in 1999, we went to Leeds. A win would have put the title in our hands for the final game. A draw would have had the two sides going into the last game level on goal difference. We lost 1-nil.
A few weeks before, Dennis Bergkamp stepped up in the 90th minute to take a penalty in the FA Cup semi-final. He missed. Ryan Giggs went on to score his famous goal.
Had Bergkamp not missed that penalty, I think Manchester United would have finished the season trophyless. No last day win against Spurs. No last minute goals in Barcelona.
We bottled the FA Cup. We bottled the league. But no one mentions it as it did not suit the Sky driven agenda that the ‘99 Manchester United side (a team they had a financial interest in) were the greatest of all time.
If Manchester City match the treble this year, and gain the 94 points (15 more than Man U won in 99), then fans will no longer include that Man U team in discussions of “greatest of all time”. And that is why Neville is trying to paint a different picture.
It should not be a surprise to anyone how strong City are.
They have the best manager in the world, one of the most expensive assembled squads with one of the highest wage bills. And that is based on what they declare in their accounts. We may never know what extra payments have gone into offshore bank accounts.
They face 115 charges for financial irregularities and could be expelled from the league. We have not been pipped to the league title by a normal team.
Janie Carragher is another trying to change the narrative.
In 2013/14, Liverpool were top of the table. Need two wins from the last 3 games. Steven Gerrard then slipped.
They then went to Selhurst Park. 2 wins from the last 2. 3-nil up with 11 minutes to go, it looked like they would be going into the last game of the season with the title in their hands.
Palace famously came back to draw 3-3. Dwight Gayle scoring an 88th minute equaliser.
Manchester City would win the league, Liverpool would finish 2 points behind with just 4 points from their last 9.
Carragher is trying to paint Arsenal as the “biggest bottlers ever” in an attempt remove Liverpool from the discussion.
Both Neville and Carragher are providing biased opinion, driven by a need to discredit Arsenal as a side aways attempt to protect their own clubs.
Throughout the season, everyone would have gone through the games and made their points prediction. It always came out at the same for Arsenal – between 84 and 87. Sometimes you would get a bit optimistic and get to 89.
At no point did any fan or pundit predict Arsenal would get 95. And that is the total we would probably need to get to win the league.
So is it bottling it that Arsenal will get between the 84-87 that we all predicted? Is it bottling it that we will not get the 95 that we would have needed? Clearly not.
Only 5 times in Premier League history has a side got 95+ points:
100 points. Manchester City in 2017-18
99 points. Liverpool in 2019-20
98 points. Manchester City in 2018-19
97 points. Liverpool in 2018-19
95 points. Chelsea in 2004-05
Ultimately, we will finish 2nd because we lost both games to Manchester City. That is a 12 point swing.
Had those results been reversed, we would be 8 points clear.
Manchester City have beaten everyone this season. Arsenal, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, and every other smaller team they have faced. It is no shame to finish 2nd to them.
I just wish for some fair punditry rather than two idiots using their platform to try and write their own version of history.
We will never forget last season when Neville and Carragher were almost in the Brentford crowd celebrating with them. The agenda is clear.
Ps: as for Neville blaming it on the way Zinchenko celebrated after a game, let’s remember he was once fined for his celebrations following a last minute win.
Neville criticises Arsenal players for not interacting with fans. Then criticises Arsenal players for interacting with fans. Almost like he hates Arsenal!
