Category Archives: Arsenal

Liverpool having the season Arteta dreamed of

1 Reply

It has not happened for The Arsenal this season.

Whether it is down to bad luck in decisions, a run of injuries to key players, not having a deep enough squad, or us running out of a bit of steam after the last two years, we have dipped below the level of expectation Mikel Arteta has got us to.

It is easy to overreact. And we have seen that online.

Despite us being second in the league, and through to the last 16 of the Champions League having finished 3rd in the elongated group, Arteta is coming under increasing criticism from fans – although I feel like it is a noisy minority who mainly live on line or use football as a way to infect others with the negativity they carry.

The same old faces have come out from the rock they have been hiding under since Covid. The ones who built online reputations, fan groups and YouTube channel off us “finishing top 4 and only winning the FA Cup” under Arsene Wenger.

Back then, many of them led with the rhetoric that “we do not expect to win the title, we only want to compete”. They have now moved the goal posts.

We competed for the last two years, and we looked like we were competing this year. But that is not enough. They now expect us to win the title. It shows that their agenda is not about Arsenal being successful, but about creating a narrative that allows them to moan, to gain attention for themselves.

Being 2nd in the league is not a “stackable offence”, like many are saying, nor is it “criminal”. We are not in the position Tottenham or Manchester United are. And you do not rip up everything Arteta and the club ave worked so diligently on for 5-years just because a couple of drunks are unhappy and using social media to vent.

Winning the Premier League is not easy. And if you are holding Arsenal to such a high bar that “anything under winning the title is failure”, then I would suggest looking at your own life and begin holding yourself to the same principal. Fans who want Arsenal to have Mamba Mentality, but do not strive for constant self-improvement and excellence in their own life.

To become champions ahead of Manchester City during the Pep Guardiola era), two things need to happen:

  • Manchester City need to have an off season
  • Nothing needs to go wrong for yourself.

Manchester City have been amazing under Pep.

Six league titles in 8 years. 4-in-a-row. The treble. Centurians. Bar an unbeaten season, they have done it all. They only seasons they failed to win the title, they went off the boil massively.

In Pep’s first season, Manchester City got 78 points as Chelsea won the league with 92. Then in 2019/20, they got 81 points as Liverpool won the league. In the 7 seasons they won the title, they averaged 93 points. And that would have been higher had they not taken their foot off the pedal once the title was secured to focus on the Champions League / FA Cup.

During the Premier League era, the average points needed to win the league is 87.8 points. Pep changed all of that and you now need 95+ to almost guarantee finishing above them. Unless they have a poor season.

To go into a season expecting to get 95+ points is unrealistic for a normal team, built on a self-sustainable model, is unrealistic. Liverpool are the only team to have achieved this, and even then they failed to win the league title on one of those occasions.

So what the likes of Arsena, Liverpool and others are setting themselves up for is not to be the dominant force of Manchester City, but to be best of the rest so that when City have that dip in form, they are best positioned to take advantage.

And to be best positioned to take advantage, you need the second factor – nothing to go against you.

Injuries and refereeing decisions are a huge factor in a Premier League campaign. Anyone that says they are “just excuses” clearly do not have an understanding as to how these can affect the game.

In the last two seasons, Arsenal have had a lot of luck with injuries.

We lost William Saliba and Thomas Partey at key times, which certainly contributed to our downfall, but on the whole we did not have a lot of injuries. Likewise not too many decisions went against us.

This year we have had an injury crisis and are currently without 4 of our 6 attacking players. It is also well documented how often we have been on the odd end of refereeing decision making:

The red card fo Declan Rice whilst 1-nil at home to Brighton
The red card to Leandro Trossard whilst 1-nil up at Manchester City
William Saliba’s red card away to Bournemouth
The Brighton penalty whilst 1-nil up on the South-Coast.

These are refereeing decisions that have not been repeated in the Premier League, despite there being a whole host of similar incidents. It does leave a bitter taste in your mouth.

If you are chasing the league, you can not afford to drop points due to referee decisions. That is up to 8 points that could be directly contributed to poor decision making (although the Bournemouth one may well have ended up in a draw reducing it to 6).

Meanwhile, Liverpool have not been on the end of any poor decisions this season. Players have not received 2nd bookings for kicking the ball away or clear yellow card fouls.

Now I am not saying there is a conspiracy. It just highlights how poor and inconsistent Premier League Match Officials are. and this year it has been Arsenal who have been “punished”, whilst Liverpool have not. Things could be so different in the league table if they had received some of our decisions, and we received their lack of controversial decisions.

We have also lost Martin Odegaard for 3 months. Bukayo Saka has been out since December. Ben White has been out so long people have forgotten about him. Takehiro Tomiyasu has hardly been seen. Gabriel Martinelli out for over a month. Kai Havertz will miss the rest of the season. And Gabriel Jesus has struggled to stay fit.

Liverpool meanwhile have managed to keep the likes of Mohamad Salah, Virgil van Dijk, Luiz Diaz, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Alexis McAllister fit for the majority of the season.

Now you could say this is down to better squad preparation, or that Arne Slott rotates his players better. But the truth is it is down to luck.

We have been very lucky in the last two seasons with injuries. This season we have been very unlucky. Meanwhile Liverpool have had some poor luck with injuries in the last two years. This year they have not had anyone meaningful out for any meaningful amount of time.

Even just the one injury of Saka. Imagine if it was Salah not seen since December and how that would have impacted Liverpool.

Saka and Salah are both teams special players. their individual match winners. To win the title, you need to keep them fit for the entire season. This season Salah has looked fitter than ever, whilst Saka picked up his first long-term injury of his career.

How different would the league table have looked if it was Salah and not Saka who picked up the injury?

Liverpool have been excellent this season. They have lost just once in the league, and topped the Champions League. But they are only on course for 90 points. Were it not for Manchester City’s fall off, they would unlikely be champions with that figure.

Arsenal were in a very similar position to Liverpool (points-wise), in the last 2 seasons and failed to win the title. the reason being is City found top gear and became nearly unbeatable in the 2nd half of both seasons. This year they are having their off-season.

So despite keeping everyone fit, and not having a decision go against them, Liverpool are not much better than Arsenal have been in the last 2-years. And are only injuries and decisions better than Arsenal this. The only difference in is that City area having their off-season in Pep’s fitness cycle.

And unfortunately for us, despite us being best positioned to take advantage of any City drop off in the last two years, it is Liverpool best positioned now.

Arteta’s dream plan was to make Arsenal “best of the rest”. And we have done that in the last two seasons. Unfortunately, this season, it is Liverpool best positioned to take advantage in the Manchester City drop off, and once again we will be the bridesmaid.

Keenos

Arsenal right to be “held to higher level compared to lesser rivals”

1 Reply

Two BBC headlines followed Arsenal’s exit to Newcastle which highlighted how vast the expectation gap is between the two.

If Newcastle win the League Cup, their players will become legends. Meanwhile, had Arsenal progressed to the final, the headline “Arteta’s Asenal can assume legendary status forever” would not have been written.

Winning the League Cup and finishing 2nd would not be considered a hugely successful for The Arsenal. Meanwhile for Newcastle it will be open top bus rides, calls for knighthood, and players going doing in history as legends.

Howe has been at Newcastle for 4 years. In that time he has won nothing and spent £500m. He is on the verge of becoming a club legend. Meanwhile Arteta has been at Arsenal 5-years. Win the FA Cup. And spent just £30million more than Howe since the Englishman joined the Saudi regime. The media (and some fans) write about Arteta as if he is a man under pressure.

And it is the same with Tottenham.

If Spurs win tonight, and go on to lift the trophy, Ange “I always win something in my second season” will be an instant Spurs legend. the same would not be said for Arteta were we 14th in the table.

All thus highlights is that Arsenal are, rightly, held to a higher level of expectation than lesser rivals.

It has often been written that Tottenham’s ceiling is our floor. And the expectation level of both clubs proves this.

For clubs like Arsenal, winning just the League Cup is not something to overly celebrate. It is our 5th most important target of the season (Premier League, Champions League, FA Cup, Top 4, League Cup). With Newcastle and Tottenham, winning the League Cup will be their teams greatest achievement of the decade.

You can also throw Aston Villa into the mix. Another club whose fans act like they are big boys, but have not win in decades.

And this is why it is laughable when Newcastle, Tottenham or Aston Villa fans try and talk their club up as if they are on the same level as Arsenal. If they were on our level, then they would have the same level of expectation.

All 3 sides would roll out the red carpet in their slums to celebrate winning the League Cup. Meanwhile for Arsenal, winning the League Cup would be yesterday’s news the day after and we would be rolling up our socks for the next battle.

What really sums this up is our 5-year trophy drought is talked about as if it is the same as Newcastle’s (56 years), Aston Villa (29 years) and Tottenham (17 years).

And when in our doldrums in that 8-year trophy drought under Arsene Wenger, no one went into the 2011 League Cup final talking about how winning the trophy would make our players legends, or justify poor league positions under Wenger.

Newcastle deserve to be in the final. Good luck to them. And their fans might finally get to celebrate something in over half a century. But they need to stop pretending they are a big club. If they were, they would be held to the same level of expectation as Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United.

Keenos

Arteta reaping rewards for development of youngsters

Leave a reply

As fans, we have a tendency to overhype young players in the academy.

This can lead to calls for players to get more game time, and then criticise the manager for not giving them that game time.

We certainly saw this with Ethan Nwaneri.

Mikel Arteta gave Nwaneri his debut back in September 2022 against Brentford. He then played very little over the next two season, which lead criticise to claim that Arteta did not care about youth players, and that he was unwilling to give youngsters the chance.

Accusations that a manager does not care about young players are always far from the mark. A manager will always give a youngster the chance if they are good enough. A single academy product breaking through to the first team squad can save a club in excess of £20 million. Money that can be used to improve the squad elsewhere.

And if a player is damn good and becomes a first team regular, than the saving is closer to £100 million. No top manager would refuse to play young players.

Ultimately, if the young players are good enough they will get game time. And the better a team becomes, the better those youngsters need to be to get a chance.

We are not a charity. We are title challengers. And any youngster who breaks through at Arsenal needs to be better than good. They not only need to be amongst the best players in their age group, but as 18 or 19 they need to already be amongst the best players in the Premier League.

It is not simply a case of “give them a chance”. The players actually need to be good enough to get that chance. And they prove whether they are good enough in training, day in day out.

The calls from the armchair scouts that a player should get more game time are usually based on a handful of youth team highlights and rumours. Meanwhile, Arteta and his coaching staff see these lads from the age of 14 (or under) and have watched them develop into young men.

By the time a young player is 17 or 18, Arteta and the coaching team will know exactly who will likely make it and who will not. They will know those players who have the work ethic, talent, physically and mental attributes to be the best. And those that will fall short. The coaches know more than any armchair critic.

Last summer Arsenal were criticised for losing Chido Obi-Martin to Manchester United. The youngster apparently left due to a lack of first team opportunities. He was just 16.

Since joining Man U, Obi Martin has not had a sniff of even a place on their bench. And that is with it being the worst Man U team in my lifetime.

A year ago, Obi-Martin came into everyone’s consciousness as he ripped up the U18 Premier League. 32 in 18 goals led Manchester United to double the £15,000 a week he was offered at Arsenal.

Since the move, Obi-Martin has not kicked on. He is still playing at U18 level, and has made just one appearance in the Premie League 2. I wonder if he is now regreeting his move?

Last season, Obi-Martin made 2 PL2 appearances, and the feeling was this year he would progress him U18 level to the Premier League reserve league. I am sure were he at Arsenal he would have played regularly at PL2 level, and considering our front line injury crisis may well have even of got himself on the first team bench.

Instead, he moved and has stagnated.

Another youngster to make the move from Arsenal Academy to Manchester United Academy is Ayden Heaven. The 18-year-old centre back joined the mid-table Premier League side in January.

Like Obi-Martin, Heaven is another who was highly rated within Arsenal. But instead of continuing to work hard and continue his development, he made the move. The pair likely picking a short term windfall over long term development.

Heaven was heavily involved with Arsenal first team training during the 2024 summer pre-season, and was one of three youngsters, along with Myles Lewis-Skelly and Nwaneri, individually praised by manager Mikel Arteta in August 2024.

The development of Lewis-Skelly and Nwaneri shows that if you are good enough, you continue to work had, and are patient, you will get your chance.

Still only 18 and younger than Heaven, Lewis-Skelly is quickly establishing himself as a fans favourite. He has confidence, charisma and most, importantly, talent.

Islington born and bred, he is one of our own. And that comes across on the pitch. Lewis-Skelly’s future is bright.

Meanwhile, Nwaneri – often seen as the jewel in the Arsenal academy – has had to wait over two years to become a regular in Arsenal’s match day squad. But his patience is now being rewarded.

Still only 17, Nwaneri now has 7 goals in 22 games. His finish against Manchester City showed talent beyond his years. He is the only player aged under 18 who has 5+ goals this season across Europe’s top 5 leagues, Lamine Yamal aside.

Arteta has to be praised for both players development.

Had he bowed down to fan pressure, both players could have seen game time before they were ready. This could have damaged them mentally for the future – see Charlie Patino. Instead, Arteta protected the pair and now they are ready, they are both getting game time.

Earlier we spoke about how much money a young player could save a club, which could then be invested elsewhere.

Moving into next season, I expect Nwaneri to be either second choice to Bukayo Saka on the right wing, or second choice behind Martin Odegaard. This would save us in excess of £40 million (based on how much it would be to get a top player in either of those positions). That is £40 million that is then free’d up to improve the team elsewhere.

Likewise, Lewis-Skelly’s development will earn Arsenal a pretty penny.

I would expect us to go into next season with Ben White, Ricardo Calafiori, Jurrien Timber and Lewis-Skelly as our 4 full back options. The first 3 also provide the required cover in the middle.

The result is we can no cash in on the always-injured Takehiro Tomiyasu, the out of favour Oleksandr Zinchenko and the rarely seen Jakub Kiwior.

Three players off the books (4 including Kieran Tierney), Arsenal would probably expect to see around £40million come in. With Lewis-Skelly, all that money could go on specialist central defensive for Gabriel and William Saliba.

My final thought on this is a regular one.

Those that sit their demanding young players see more game time are the same fans who complain when a young player picks up an injury having “played too much”. It is almost like they are just looking for a reason to moan.

UTA

Keenos