Throughout the debate around Noni Madueke, I have continually made two points:

1. Since breaking through to the first team, we have never had adequate cover for Bukayo Saka
2. If not Noni Madueke, then who?

Cover for Saka

For years we have been complaining that Saka has been overplayed and we need to recruit cover. Now that we are targeting someone to be his back-up, fans are complaining.

Since Saka usurped Nicolas Pepe as our first choice right winger in 2020/21, The Ivorian was the only player who you could consider as decent cover on the right wing. And he only lasted one year as Saka’s back up.

Reiss Nelson has never really progressed, and more recently Raheem Sterling was a flop

2024/25
Bukayo Saka – 2619 total minutes
Ethan Nwaneri – 1378
Raheem Sterling – 1143

2023/24
Bukayo Saka – 3865
Reiss Nelson – 641

2022/23
Bukayo Saka – 3744
Reiss Nelson – 590
Marquinhos – 2019

2021/22
Bukayo Saka – 3359
Nicolas Pepe – 951
Reiss Nelson – 19

2020/21
Bukayo Saka – 3606
Nicolas Pepe – 2930
Reiss Nelson – 450

2019/20
Nicolas Pepe – 2720
Bukayo Saka – 2704
Reiss Nelson – 1043

I get the theory around Ethan Nwaneri, but I do not believe Mikel Arteta sees the youngster as “Saka cover”. Next season I would expect Nwaneri to move inside to cover Martin Odegaard. And being first choice cover for two positions is not only a big ask for the 18-year-old but could also be detrimental for his future.

Better to learn now how to play a single position at senior level, and develop into a world class performer inside, rather than having to split his time between two positions and end up no fulfilling his potential in either.

We should all be in agreement that we need to recruit a new right winger – although I do also get the argument that if we sign Rodrygo and Eze, then a mixture of then plus Gabriel Martinelli and Nwaneri is more than adequate cover. But that is only if Martinelli stays.

Right wing options

So if we are saying no to Madueke, what are our options?

To anslyse this, I have taken the top 50 right wingers by market value from Transfermarkt.

1-10

We need to be realistic in our pursuit.

Almost all of the top 10 would not come to Arsenal to be cover. The only one that might have done would have been Bryan Mbeumo.

Two years ago I called for us to target the then 23-year-old Frenchman as Saka’s cover. However, a deal would unlikely happen now as he looks to be off to Manchester United to be a regular starter. You could probably cross him off the list.

It is interesting to note that Saka and Nwaneri are two of the top 10 most valuable. And Rodrygo is also on the list.

11-20

There are plenty of players here that would be interested in joining us. But would we be interested in them?

Christian Pulisic would have the same criticism as Madueke (ex-Chelsea), and I am not sure he is the type of winger we should be targeting. Likewise, Arda Guler always looks more suited to a central role, where we expect Nwaneri to play.

Maghnes Akliouche is a new name to me. The Algerian scored 5 goals and made 10 assists in Ligue 1 for Monaco last season. As a bit of an unknown, he would be a risk and it would be a big ask to step up to performing in the Premier League. Madueke gets the nod as he is Premier League proven.

Then you have Mohammed Kudus. The Ghanian looks off to Spurs and I would be concerned about the attitude problems he has shown at West Ham this season.

Amad Diallo had a breakout season for Manchester United last season, but is probably not the standard we need – highlighted by the fact that they are recruiting new wingers rather than giving him a chance.

And finally we have former wonderkid Karim Adeyemi. The German has never really progressed from being a highly rated youngster.

21-25

That leaves us with 21-25.

I have left Anthony Elanga on the list as he would have been an option before his move to Newcastle.

Elanga is interesting as I think he is the same level and very similar profile to Madueke. Would there have been as much criticism of the club if they spent £55m on Elanga against £40-50m on Madueke? I believe the only issue people we have with Madueke is he played for Chelsea..

As for the rest on this list, Mason Greenwood is a no for obvious reasons. As is Brennan Johnson (for different obvious reasons).

Jarrod Bowen is another I have had written down as possible cover for Saka, but he is so settled in West Ham’s first team these days that I do not think he would want to become a squad player.

25-50

Lets be honest, is there anyone on this list that would jump out as a better option than Madueke?

Cases could be made for some of them. But likewise a case could be made that Madueke is better than all of them.

Making the money work

I think one important factor in the Madueke deal is his salary – an offer reported to be in and around £75k a week on the table.

This would mean that, if we paid the full £50m, Madueke would cost us around £70m over 5-years. There are not many on this list who are his level or higher, and would cost that or less.

And this is where the Martinelli option falls down.

Martinelli is on £180k a week. that is a huge sum to be 4th choice winger (if we complete Rodrygo and Eze).

Over 5-years will cost us about £45m in salary. And on top of that, we could get in the region of £70m for him.

So selling Martinelli would generate us £70m+ and save us £45. A total of £115m. And replacing him with Madueke would equate to a net saving of £45m. This is a huge saving to make on a 4th choice winger.

Some might see this as “Arsenal being cheap again”, but when Arsenal are looking to spend £340m+ this summer, we need to make savings somewhere.

Now of course, I have factored in us signing Rodrygo and Eze. If one of these deals does not happen, Martinelli stays and would be our 3rd choice winger. But this does not change the equation that Madueke would still be needed as our 4th choice.

I do not see many better options on the table than Madueke.

Many of those who are better would come with a much higher price tag and salary, which would impact our ability to strengthen elsewhere. Those with a market value less than him would be a huge risk as the majority are not exactly performing to a high standard in lesser leagues.

So the question then is – if not Madueke, who should we recruit as back up to Saka?

Keenos

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As 2024/25 came to a close, the messages were clear: be very excited Arsenal fans.

But us Arsenal fans had heard it all before. How would this summer be any different to many others in the Emirates Era?

Talk was that we had “taken Europe by surprise” with how aggressive we had come out of the starting blocks in transfer negotiations. Players had been approached by rivals at home and abroad only to be told “no, I want to join Arsenal”.

But by the end of June, we had signed no-one. Nothing. Zilch. And this lead to a loud minority of Arsenal fans to question Mikel Arteta and new Sporting Director Andrea Berta.

“Monitoring FC”
“Linked FC”
“Weighing Up FC”
“Interested FC”
“Talking Too FC”

These were just a few of the things the “banter” social media accounts were labelling us. Of course, they rely on social media income to pay for their lives in Nigeria, Finland, India or Somalia. And they will never let the truth get in the way of social media revenue.

But come July, and things have exploded.

At the time of writing (Sunday), Kepa is in the bag. The ex-Chelsea man is the best 2nd choice keeper in the league. Martin Zubimendi has also been announced.

The Zubimendi deal came in a couple of hours after we blogged that this could be a Big Week for The Arsenal. We do not have inside knowledge. It was just very obvious to everyone (except for the negative nancies) that a few big deals were about to explode.

And hot on the heels of the Zubimendi deal came that news that personal terms had been agreed with both Viktor Gyorekes and Noni Madueke. By the time this is published, deals for the pair and Christian Norgaard could be confirmed.

Further deals could also be done for Cristhian Mosquera, Rodrygo and Eberechi Eze. And the talk is that it is not Eze or Rodrygo, but it is both. And neither deal is impacted by the recruitment of Madueke or a new striker.

If we do a deal for them all (and it is a big “if”), then we could spend in excess of £340m this summer:

Kepa – £5m
Martin Zubimendi – £60m
Christian Norgaard – £10m
Noni Madueke – £40m
Viktor Gyorekes – £65m
Cristhian Mosquera – £20m
Rodrygo – £80m
Eberechi Eze – £60m

That would be £340m. Unbelievably huge spending! Especially for a club with cautious owners such as the Kroenke’s, and who will have no interest in selling the women’s team to themselves for an inflated price to make the books balance.

So how could Arsenal spend £340m?

Our 2024/25 accounts will show record revenue. This will break the record is set in 2023/24 of £616.6 million, which in turn was £150m higher than the 2022/23 figure of £466.7 million.

To put simply, the more we make in revenue, the more we can increase our amortised fee expenditure and wage bill. So the majoirty of this summers expenditure would have already been accounted for in the 2025/26 budget projects.

On top of this, you then have the money which is free’d up by exiting players.

When a player departs it is not just the transfer fee that is important, although this is essential as it increases the cash you have available to buy players based on their book value. The club also makes a saving in wages and amortisation costs.

Take Thomas Partey as a great example of this.

He has left on a free transfer, which on the face of it should not free up any extra cash, if all you care about is “net spend”.

But Partey was costing us £9 million a year in amortised transfer costs (£45m transfer fee split over 5 years), and £10.5m a year in wages. So his departure gives us £19.5m extra head room in 2025/26 against 2024/25.

How much in wages and amortisation costs will Arsenal look to “save”

With 6 senior members of the first team squad confirmed as departing, Arsenal have increased their available funds to be spent on amoritsed transfer costs and new salaries by £36.5m.

On top of that, despite 3 players departing on a free and one for a loss, we have made a small book profit. This means that none of those savings need to be paid towards transfer costs not yet amortised. Everything is covered by those incoming fees.

At least a further 4 players are expected to depart this summer which will save the club another £24.8m. And as long as their total sales exceed £23m, we will not take a book loss on their combined exits.

I would not be surprised if the above 4 depart for a combined £60m+. That would give us an excess of £37m. Important cash that can be used to finance deals and ensure we keep within PSR.

Finally, we come on to two first team player exits – Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard.

Now I like both. But considering the players we are being linked with (Rodrygo and Eze), you can not feel that “like for like” replacements are being sought.

Rodrygo is likely to come in for Martinelli as first choice left winger. And whilst I would favour keeping Martinelli as back up, it would be hard for the club to justify a £180k a week man sitting on the bench, especially if £70-80m is being offered by Saudi Arabia.

Eze for Trossard would also be like for like, with the Crystal Palace man being about to replicate Trossard’s covering of every attacking position.

Rodrygo is an upgrade on Martinelli. Eze is an upgrade on Trossard.

Trossard and Martinelli would add an extra £19.74m a year to our headroom. And if we can bank £100m in book value profit on Martinelli and Trossard, you would have to think it was great business.

In total, we could look to:

• Save £37.5m in amortised transfer fees
• Save £48.94m in salary
• Generate £131.3m in transfer profit

Huge figures.

So what does that allow us to spend?

In the most simple terms, on top of what we had available to spend the exits mentioned above will give us an additional £85.44m headroom in amoritised transfer costs and salaries, and a further £131.3m in cash.

We have handed out new contracts to Miles Lewis-Skelly and Gabriel. These are likely to cost us in the region of £5.2m year extra (I expect that Gabriel’s has gone from £100k a week to £150k, and MLS increase for £4k to above £50k). That means bit more than £5m additional is already being spent. For ease, lets say that is now £80m headroom.

Now we all know by now that amortised transfer costs are the value of the fee spread across the length of the contract. But of course, we also still need the cash to pay upfront (or instalments)

So how much will that £340m worth of talent actually cost us?

By my estimation (and official figures will differ), 8 new signings, £340m in transfer fee and their associated salaries will increase our outgoings by around £124m a year.

That £124m is then offset by the £80m in savings we have made, meaning that 8 in and 12 out will cost us a net £44m a year (by the time you also factor in Gabriel and MLS contracts).

Considering we are likely expecting to make in excess of £700m in revenue this year following our semi-final Champions League appearance and increased sponsorship deals, that additional £44m is easily found in the additional £60m in revenue.

But what about the cash?

The final factor is “where do we find £340m to buy the players”. And it is a legitimate concern.

Whilst you might be able to amortise the transfer fee across the length of the contract, you still need to find the cash to initially buy the players.

You could, of course, try and agree on instalments for the player you are signing. We have done this with Zubimendi and any deal for Eze will likely be similar. Beyond this, you are looking at loans from either a bank or your owners to bridge the gap.

Ideally we do not want to leverage the club with debt to buy players, and loans should only be taken out in exceptional circumstances. So my betting is Arsenal try and make it work through the structures of the deals.

We probably have in the region of £150m surplus cash before sales to make signings this summer. An additional £130m could be generated through players sales (as above), which would leave us a gap of £60m.

We have agreed to pay for Zubimendi in 3 instalments of £20m. That is therefore a cash saving this year of £40m. Likewise a deal for Eze will probably be similar.

So even if we can not do instalment deals for other players, we can comfortable pay for £340 using our own current cash position, the money from incoming players, and factoring in instalment deals for Zubimendi and Eze.

We were told to expect a huge summer, and this could be coming to fruition very quickly…

And if you have got this far in the blog, you deserve to have a great summer!!!

Keenos

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