Last season the atmosphere at the Emirates was electric.

It was best it had consistently been over the course of a season for decades, and this coincided with our best on-pitch performances in decades.

This season the crowd has been more subdued. Many fingers have been pointed towards the club for the change in ticket philosphy and the reduction in Ashburton Army allocation. We have written plenty on these two factors. But is the change in atmosphere also a bit of “second season syndrome”.

Over the years, I have done hundreds of away games, and teams always follow a similar pattern.

The first season a team is back in the Premier League (either for their first time or for the first time in a while), the atmosphere is electric. I am thinking Portsmouth in the early-mid 00s, Leeds United more recently and Luton Town this season. But each year after, the stadium noise tapers off.

The fans at these clubs remain the same, yet from the second season the atmosphere declines. After that first season, they are no longer as excited. Being in the Premier League has stopped being special. And they become more demanding.

In that first season, the fans are just “glad to be back” in the top flight. They could lose 5-0 and still be cheering their team in. Give it a year and that same 5-0 defeat and performance is met by boos and discontent.

And the same happens further up the table.

When Manchester City first became competitive, their ground was a bit of a cauldron. With their narrow away end, it felt like the home fans were on top of you, and it was a fairly intimidating place. A decade on and it is now one of the worst atmospheres in the Premier League.

The more succesful they have become, the worse the atmosphere has become. Whilst this can be pointed at more “day trippers” turning up, 70% of the ground (like Arsenal) is season ticket holders. So a few thousand “new fans” should not have made that much of a difference.

Reality is with success – whether that is at the top of the league, battling at the top of statying in the league – comes expectation. You are no longer excited to be in a title race, you just expect to be in it.

And with that buzz of excitiment of being in it diminishing, the atmosphere also begins to decline.

Manchester City fans now turn up and expect to win, expect to be entertained. And they sit and await that victory and entertainment, like an opera go’er waiting patiently for the performers to hit the big notes, at which point they erupt.

After last seasons exploits and excitment, this season was always going to potentially see a natural decline as second season syndrome kicked in.

Last year saw us return as title contenders, and it is a position we are still in this season. But whereas in 2022/23 we were excited to be in the title race, this campaign we expect to be in it. And that rise in expectation will naturally lead to a decline in atmosphere.

The only way we would have maintained (or built on) the atmosphere is if we had have kicked on again.

For a newly promoted team, kicking on again is transititioning from “happy to be here” to “competing for Europe”. For us, considering the start we had in 2022/23, we had very little room to kick on. The only way the atmosphere of last season would have been replicated this would be if we were running away with the league title. Cantering towards it and double figures clear after 20-games. It is a fairly unreasonable expectation.

And even if we had have done that this season, the atmosphere would have simply dropped next season as that bar of expectation would have risen again. It would no longer be exciting to just win the league. We need that next hit.

It is a bit like your childs excitment declines over Christmas and birthdays over the year, the 2nd time on an airplane never quite generates the excitiment as the 1st, that first game at football is always the most exciting, as is the first away game, first North London Derby, first Euro away trip. The 2nd time around is never quite as exciting.

Yes, I do think that the club have played a huge impact with their decision making, and they have perhaps sped up the decline in atmosphere, but second season syndrome is also a factor.

My final point is to the social media warriors – instead of complaining online that the atmosphere is not as good, why not do something to change it? Stand up and start a song yourself. Do not leave it up to others then complain with they do nothing.

Keenos

Our best selling Arsenal fleece blankets! Perfect for these sub-zero temperatures #Arsenal #ArsenalFC #AFC https://t.co/rmSYWyrIb4 pic.twitter.com/zrepeHaqQD

— Kick Off Merchants (@KOMerchants) January 16, 2024

A ‘winning machine’ - why Liverpool did not miss stars

That was the headline on the BBC following Liverpool’s 4-0 victory over Bournemouth that saw them go 5-points clear at the top of the league, despite Mo Salah being at the African Cup of Nations / injured.

There are 187 million reasons why they did not miss Salah.

Liverpool’s front 3 against Bournemouth was:

Luiz Diaz: £40m
Diogo Jota: £38m
Darwin Nunez: £74m

And then coming off the bench was £35m Cody Gakpo.

If you throw in Mohamed Salah, Liverpool’s forward options have cost them £225m. And that does not even take into account the add-ons. I would be surprised if too many other teams across Europe have spent more on their forward options.

So lets stop pretending that Liverpool were plucky underdogs and did well to thrash Bournemouth despite missing their key man. They have invested plenty in their forwards. And that is the difference between Liverpool and us right now.

In defence and midfield, I would say Arsenal and Liverpool are fairl equal – both in terms of starting players and squad depth. It is the forward line where you can see the difference in investment.

Our 6 forward options cost us just £71m – less than a single Darwin Nunez:

Gabrel Jesus: £45m
Gabriel Martinelli: £6m
Bukayo Saka: £0m
Leandro Trossard: £20m
Emile Smith Rowe: £0m
Reiss Nelson: £0m

Now whilst I subscribe to “it is not what you spend but who you buy”, Liverpool simply have more strength in depth to us up front. And that is mainly because of good investment overtime.

They signed Mo Salah in the summer of 2017. Diogo Jota joined in 2020 with Luiz Diaz arriving a year later. In 2022 they went big on Darwin Nunez, and Cody Gakpo completed the quintet in January 2023.

Liverpool’s investment has been consistent over a long period of time – driven by Champions League football and the finances that competition brings.

Since Mo Salah signed, Liverpool had qualified for the Champions League 6 times in 6 seasons. They had only qualified once in their previous 7. This year was the first time they had missed out in over half a decade.

Champions League football is worth in excess of £50m (and towards £100m if you make the final) of additional revenue.

In that same 6-year period, Arsenal did not make a single appearance in the Champions League. From 2017, we had 5 appearances in the Europa League and 1 with no Europe. This was the first time in over half a deacde that we got into the Champions League.

So over the last 6 years, we have earned around £300million less than Liverpool from our European exploits. And you can see that lower revenue when you compare the two teams front lines.

Shut your eyes a minute and imagine an Arsenal front line that had Saka (Salah) and Jesus (Nunez), and Martinelli (Diaz) but instead of Trossard, Smith Rowe and Nelson, we had Jota and Gakpo. I am sure we would not have had the misfiring games we have recently had.

Liverpool have not had “one big summer”. What Jurgen Klopp and his team do is constant improvements ever year, lead by clear succession planning.

The year before Sadio Mane left, Luiz Diaz came in, and the year before Roberto Firmino departed, Darwin Nunez was signed. This allowed them to have a year of settling into the squad before they were expected to have big impacts on the first team.

The top end (first XI) of our squad is now in a decent position. What we now need to be doing is upgrading on those fringe squad players that Mikel Arteta clearly does not trust. And this can only be done if we remain top 4 and increase our revenue over the next couple of years.

Replace Smith Rowe and Nelson with a single forward to create our own quintent of top forwards, all of whom Arteta has faith in. Playing Football Manager, it would look something like this:

2024: Sign top forward, sell Smith Rowe and Nelson
2025: Upgrade on Leandro Trossard
2026: Upgrade on Gabriel Jesus (he will be 29 by then!)

Come 2026/27, we then have forward line options of 25-year-old Martinelli and Saka, as well as the 3 new signings made over the 3 previous summers.

But you can only do this long term thinking if (a) we consistently qualify for the Champions League and (b) we stick with the current regeime like Liverpool have done with Klopp.

As Manchester United and Chelsea have shown, constantly chopping and changing manager means you can not have long term transfer plans, and you waste a lot of money on players who, in 18-months time, are surplus to requirements as the new manger does not want them.

For those who say “but Real Madrid change their manager often”. Yes, but Spain is a two team league, in which Madrid are the richest in. It is not a comparable scenario.

It is not just upfront we need this succession planning, but all over the pitch.

Next summer we need to replace Mohamed Elneny, Jorginho and Thomas Partey.

Whilst a lot of fuss has been made over the £105m we spent on Declan Rice, Liverpool spent nearly £150m last summer on 4-new midfielders. Rice is better than any that they have, but there next 4 is better than our 3 other central midfielders (taking into account Partey can not stay fit).

Finish top 4, we can then not only invest in another forward, but also a couple of new midfielders giving us further strength in depth (alternative option will be to purchase a new top left back and then utilise Zinchenko is a midfielder).

Now I know some of you will be itching to point out just how much we spent on Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Alexander Lacazette and Nicolas Pepe during the period since Sala joined Liverpool. And you are right, we have wasted nearly £200m in attacking talent that we then failed to get a transfer feee for when they departed.

As well as long term planning, Liverpool also rarely get a transfer wrong. they recruit consistently well. We are beginning to do this, and most of our “wasted money” signings came prior to the Edu / Arteta era. What we now need to do is build on that better recruitment.

In the last couple of windows, we have had to spend big to try and close the gap. We are getting there.

What we now need is to finish top 4 consistently and reinvest that additional Champions League revenue sensibly.

Keenos

Our best selling Arsenal fleece blankets! Perfect for these sub-zero temperatures #Arsenal #ArsenalFC #AFC https://t.co/rmSYWyrIb4 pic.twitter.com/zrepeHaqQD

— Kick Off Merchants (@KOMerchants) January 16, 2024