Caicedo chaos not a cause for concern

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So for the second transfer window in a row, we are in late for a defensive midfielder and could potentially come out empty handed.

In the summer, we launched a bid for Douglas Luiz. A snatch and grab deal, we tried to take advantage of his contract situation by low-balling Aston Villa.

The interest in Luiz only materialised late in the window due to Mohamed Elneny’s injury.

We failed with the bid as Villa held firm. The failure to secure him has not really damaged us this season.

Then we have Moises Caicedo. Long term readers will know how much I like this guy.

We went have gone big, reportedly offering around £70million. But Brighton are refusing to sell and Arsenal are unwilling to offer a fee so large that it would be impossibile for them to turn it down.

Although I would argue that £70m for a 21 year old with 26 Premier League games to his name is already astronomical.

As I said when we walked away from Mykhailo Mudryk, we need to back Edu and his team over their valuation on players.

They have proved with the signings of Oleksandr Zinchenko, Gabriel Jesus, Martin Odegaard and Leandro Trossard that walking away from a deal is not a disaster.

So Caicedo. What is happening?

Hand forced by Chelsea

What Chelsea have done in January forced the hand of many clubs, including Arsenal.

Mudryk was clearly a long term target for us and we were prepared to negotiate a deal for him. We probably would have got him for want we wanted. But then Chelsea swopped in and “paid the asking price”.

They have now spent over half a billion in the last two transfer windows. And in most of those cases they have paid that asking price.

Not negotiating might get them the player, but also leads them to over pay and puts them in tough situations later down the line.

They attempted to negotiate with Lyon over Malo Gusto. Lyon refused to, and they ended up having to pay the asking price – £31million when their initial first bid was £15m.

This tactic is already putting them at a disadvantage in the market and could have long term repercussions.

What Chelsea also did was bring forward their summer spending to January.

6 permanent signings (7 if the Enzo Fernandez deal goes through), and over £200m spent. This “early transfer business” is what really forced our hand.

Caicedo is a long term target, and we were probably looking to sign him in the summer. But then Chelsea began discussions with him.

The result was we had to act fast, and submitted our bid. Having lost Mudryk, we did not want to lose another long term target.

If Chelsea showed no interest, I imagine our January transfer business would have been done and we would have gone in for Caicedo, or Declan Rice, or Martin Zubimendi in the summer.

Caicedo might not be on his way to Arsenal, but he is also unlikely to join someone else today.

No longer pressing

As we intensified our interest in Caicedo, Chelsea’s interest seemed to disolve. They also returned to Enzo Fernandez – their primary choice for central midfield.

Chelsea’s late pursuit of Enzo meant that they would not longer be in the market for Caicedo. And it is no longer as pressing for Arsenal to get a quick deal done.

Thomas Partey’s rib injury is also not as serious as first thought. He will likely be fit for Everton.

With our FA Cup exit, we have just 26 games left to play this season. We should be able to manage the squad through those games.

We will not bow down to social media pressure to make transfers for likes. That is not how a big club operates.

Can take a breath

If we were not sure on Caicedo’s worth, we are right to take a step back, take a breath.

Caicedo’s price was being driven up by a few factors:

  • Chelsea’s interest
  • Arsenal top of the league
  • No other top targets on the market

A lot changes in the summer. Mainly because two additional targets will emerge – Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi.

Rice is head and shoulders of the trio, and would probably be available for around £80million. That is less than what it would take to get a deal for Caicedo done now.

Meanwhile, Zubimendi has a £52m release clause.

Caicedo sits between the two, value wise.

So come the summer, we would have 3 options which would give us a much stronger hand at the negotiating table.

Brighton demand too much for Caicedo? Well we either spend big on Rice, or spend less on Zubimendi.

Arsenal will probably try and get Caicedo for as close to the Zubimendi price as possible, knowing that if Brighton hold out for £80m we can just move for Rice.

And we have cover

Mohamed Elneny is reportedly out until the end of the season. But we still have Thomas Partey cover.

Oleksandr Zinchenko is the most sensible option to repalce him. Then we also have Granit Xhaka and Albert Sambi Lokonga. New boy Jakub Kiwior has also previously played defensive midfield.

The drop off from Partey to anyone is huge. He is the best defensive midfielder in the world right now.

We will need to continue managing his time. Not playing him in the Europa League. Only seeing him in the Premiership.

That will also allow us to assess our options for his cover in Europe.

Final thoughts

Love Caicedo. I think he is the best U21 defensive midfielder in the world right now. And could become one of the best defensive midfielders in the world in a couple of years.

I would not be surprised if we are back in for him in the summer.

Keenos

Moises Caicedo is the perfect long term replacement for Thomas Partey

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It is now not a secret that Arsenal are in for Moises Caicedo. Whether we get a deal over the line before tomorrow evening is an unknown.

I had a blog lined up for deadline day about how we were going to go “all in” for a defensive midfielder, but that the deal would unlikely happen until the summer.

My gut tells me that Caicedo (or someone else) will not join until the summer. But if Arsenal push hard over the next 30-or-so hours, a deal for Caicedo might be done.

Over the last 6 months, I had two players at the top of my list of transfer targets – Mykhailo Mudryk and Caicedo.

I expected the pair to be our two big money signings in the summer. However us being top of the league and Chelsea’s spending spree has changed that.

Chelsea ended up beating us to Mudryk and I hope the same does not happen with Caicedo.

The case for Arsenal to sign Caicedo is an easy one to make.

Instant impact

One aspect of our recruitment in recent years is signing players with Premier League experience.

When the deal for Mudryk do not happen, we turned straight to Leandro Trossard. He made an instant impact against Manchester’s City and United.

Trossard had played over 100 games in the Premier League. He would take no adjusting.

Caicedo joined came to England in February 2021 as a 19-year-old. Brighton took their time with him and he was kept under wraps for the 2nd half of the 2020/21 season, not playing a game.

In the summer of 2021 he was loaned out Belgium side Beerschot for 6 months. He returned to Brighton in January 2022 and has pretty much been a first team regular since.

He has now played 26 Premier League games for Brighton – and a total of 2272 minutes. Not a huge amount of experience but his “settling in” period has happened.

Caicedo knows England, knows the Premier League, and could start Saturday against Everton if we needed him to.

Brighton a BTEC Arsenal

Brighton do not play to disimilar to Arsenal.

They play 4231 possession based game.

Caicedo and Mac Allister play as the two deepest midfielder, with the Argentinian given the freedom to push on when they have the ball turning their formation into a 4141. It is a very similar role to what Granit Xhaka plays for us.

This means Caicedo is often the last and only line of defence infront of his centre backs. Exactly the role Thomas Partey plays for us.

We have already seen how easy Trossard has fitted into Mikel Arteta’s system, and I would be confident that Caicedo will do the same.

Age

My big concern about Declan Rice was his agen and experience. The Englishman would not really be someone who could come in to play a squad role.

Caicedo, at 21, always felt the better fit.

We would be under no pressure to have him playing week in, week out. He would continue his development whilst learning from the best defensive midfielder in the world – Thomas Partey.

As the next 18 to 30 months roll by, we would see a slow transition from Partey to Caicedo..

Come 2025, Partey will be 32 and his current contract will be coming to an end. Caicedo will be just 23 and ready to be our key man week in, week out.

The option would still then be there to retain Partey as 2nd choice. simialr to Fernandinho playing 2nd fiddle to Rodri in his later years.

Signing Caciedo would be fantastic succession planning.

A solid passer

As the man to pick up the ball off the defence and launch our attacks, our defensive midfielder needs to be a very good passer.

We could not have a Gilberto Silva, Claude Makelele or N’Golo Kante in that role. Whilst they are brilliant defensively, they would be too slow on the ball.

Caicedo can improve his passing, but it is certainly not poor.

In the Premier League this season, he has a 88.2% pass accuracy. That is better than Partey’s 86.6%.

Caicedo averages around 60 passes a game, Partey 65. Where Partey is ahead is in long ball accuracy. The Ghanaian has that clipped ball over the top from deep in his armoury. I am not sure Caicedo has that yet.

If Caicedo came in for Partey, we would certainly not see our build up play slow down.

And a fantastic defender

Caicedo’s defensive statistics also match up to Partey’s.

They mirror each other in tackles and interceptions. Caicedo averaging a little more per game due to Brighton having less posession than us.

What the stats show is that Caicedo can read the game well.

Like Partey, he tends not to dive around tackling all over the place. It is all about being positionally solid and making interceptions.

Albert Sambi Lokonga is a liability defensively right now. Caicedo would be a huge upgrade.

Ill-disiplined

His only real downside is that he can be a little rash defensively.

He has committed the 2nd most fouls in the league this season – 36. Partey has conceded just 17. He also has 5 yellow cards to his name against Partey’s 2.

This season, Partey has picked up one yellow card every 697 minutes. Caicedo is booked every 321 minutes. At the current rate, Caicedo will finish the season with 11 yellow card. Partey 5.

Partey has also only received two red cards in his career. It shows a player that is very disciplined. Caicedo will need to work on this to avoid discipline hurting his team.

If we sign Caicedo prior to tomorrows deadline, I will be a very happy boy! But even if we do not, it will not be a disaster for us. And we will just go again for him (or Rice) in the summer.

I always laugh when I think back to people saying they “do not get Edu’s transfer strategy” a few years back when we signed Ben White and Aaron Ramsdale. It was clear than what our strategy was, and even clearer now.

Caicedo will be a brilliant signing for Arsenal’s present, and an even better one for Arsenal’s future.

Keenos

Family of Arsenal legend involved in re-designing new stadium wraps

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Before going to bed in early April 2022, I noticed I had an email in my inbox from The Arsenal team, which took me by complete surprise!

I have devoured the pleasure of being a lifelong Arsenal fan and being related to one of the all-time greats of not just Arsenal but of the game of football itself.

My Great Grandfather is and will forever be striker Ted Drake who on the 14th of December 1935, whilst injured with the World’s biggest bandage attached to his leg, scored the most goals (7) in a top-flight game of English football.

During that same year, he scored the most goals in a season for Arsenal, with 44 goals to his name. Neither of his two records has been broken and probably won’t be.

In 2009, the Legend reemerged on Arsenal’s horizon during the Emirates Stadium 32 glorious Legends together display uncovering. After 13 years of weathering, Arsenal decided that the display needed to be redesigned and replaced, a process which I and my Granddad (son of Ted Drake) were a part of and were informed about after reading the email on that late April night.

In that exact email, I and my Granddad were asked to meet up on the evening of the 19th of April at the Tollington Arms alongside several Arsenal fans and the families of the legends whose backs had graced the Emirates Stadium.

The Tollington is situated just up the road from the Emirates Stadium and after I walked in, the exceptionally warm and welcoming vibe from those who worked for the club and were there like me attending completely took me aback.

Before the event began, we were all given two free drink tickets which I gladly used for two delicious Kopparbergs whilst socially getting myself involved with the other fans there too.

At the start of the event, the artists who would lay the ground for the new design, including Turner Prize-winning artist Jeremy Deller, ReubenDangoor and graphic designer David Rudnick, gave a speech about what they were planning to do to revolutionize the Emirates Stadium.

Another important person who gave a speech was Arsenal Ceo Vinai Venkkatesham, who also talked about why we were there and what our purpose was in the construction process, as well as what the club was aiming to do.

All speeches were very strong and made me feel quite emotional inside as I realized exactly what Arsenal has and will always be about, as everyone there felt instantly connected to one greater community.

We were all given different A4 cards with questions for us to answer. For example, a couple of the questions were what does Arsenal mean to you? What are Arsenal’s biggest achievements? Before I forget, the Pub handed out free meals for everyone there, which was a much-appreciated delight too.

After the event came to a close me and my Granddad safely made our way home after saying goodbye to 1930s Arsenal captain Eddie Hapgood’s daughter Lyn, who most recently published a book about her father’s life, and talking to her son Jake who’s Grandson of the ex England captain too.

I must admit there was a slight stumble in our tracks home as the pub sits on the corner of a crossroad, and we weren’t too sure for a minute which road we had come up and were meant to go down to get back to Arsenal tube station.

On the 8th of June, I rocked up at Arsenal tube station once again after having switched at Waterloo for the underground after setting off from Basingstoke with not my Granddad but my brother-in-arms George.

Unfortunately, my Granddad could not go as he was busy with my Nan celebrating their 54th wedding anniversary. That was not a problem, though. I had been to watch The Arsenal multiple times with George, who is also an Arsenal fan since birth and whose dad is a season ticket holder at the club.

George was as excited as me to go along to the Arsenal Togetherness event. As we arrived early I said to him, “do you fancy going to look at Highbury Gardens and the Stadium as we haven’t seen it together before?”

My friend accepted the request, and we went and had a walk round the gardens, which was lovely on a sunny summer’s day.

After we’d completed our walk and marveled at the ground, I went inside and asked one man at reception if we could have a tour around the now Highbury flat corridors, leading up from the Marbles hall stairs. While the bust of Herbert Chapman who put Arsenal on the global stage of football stared at me, the man declined my asking, but was in awe when I said who my Great Granddad was.

Once we’d finished at Highbury, we moved on to the Emirates Stadium, where the second meeting would take place in the Diamond club. I’d only ever been there before when I was on a stadium tour dating back to nearly a decade ago when I was 11.

There was food and drink for everyone as me and my friend helped ourselves to a couple of beers and burgers whilst we sat down at one table and spoke to a couple of fans of similar age who help with the club behind the scenes.

When we sat down, we were told not to take pictures of the designs which the artists had created, which were displayed on a large screen in front of us.

During the meeting, they showed us the first designs for the Stadium banners and asked what we thought of them, which I was over the moon with. It was great to see that the banner ideas were simply revolutionary as they differed completely from any other Premier League Stadium ones.

I was glad that the new banners weren’t just going to include the backs of Arsenal greats, as I felt we needed something different for the club and Emirates Stadium to stand out once again. I’d seen that West Hams’s ground has adorned the backs of previous legends too and I thought it was most definitely time for a change that would be revolutionary.

The final meeting occurred on the 13th of October when we saw the final designs in print at the Emirates Stadium Diamond club again. We were awarded free drinks and food again whilst also being able to watch the Arsenal and BodoGlimt Europa League game too before the meeting started.

Whilst I was watching the game, a couple of camera flashes distracted me in the background as people were having their photos taken for one banner, which includes 720 Arsenal fans. I went along to join the fun as I had my picture taken for the banner and my Granddad.

During the meeting, they introduced us to the complete designs for the all-new 8 Emirates Stadium banners.

My favorites were of course the “Remember who you are” banner with ex Legends on it including Ted Drake hanging out of one window of Highbury Stadium, and the “come to see the Arsenal” banner imprinted with “Welcome to North London home of The Arsenal”.

On Wednesday the 11th of January, the unveiling of the Emirates Stadium banner Artwork was launched at CandidsArt Trust.

It would be one of the greatest nights of my life as I finally met the Legends who have graced the club throughout the years which I have read about.

I was completely surprised by seeing the likes of George Graham, Ian Wright, Charlie George, Alan Smith, David Seaman, Jack Wilshire, Bob Wilson, and current captain Martin Odegaard. I just wasn’t expecting it at all, especially within the first few minutes, when I noticed the appearance of Pat Rice. I thought maybe he would be the only one there, but I was wrong-very wrong!

It was an immense joy to be a part of such a special Arsenal Togetherness project, which means the World to me as a man of literally Arsenal blood!

Liam Harding
Great Grandson of Ted Drake