Tag Archives: Arsenal

Laurent Koscielny to see out last year of Arsenal contract

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This summer there has been talk of Laurent Koscielny leaving Arsenal. It will not happen.

The Frenchman turns 34 in September and his best days are behind him, but he will see out the last year of his contract at Arsenal.

Next season will be Koscielny’s 10th and last at the club he has served with so much class. The captain will spend his last year with Arsenal as a senior back-up option, more influential on the training ground than on the pitch.

Koscielny put in some brave performances towards the end of last season, making up for his diminishing physical attributes by becoming a dogger, old fashioned defender. He put his body on the line to win every ball.

Had Arsenal wanted to get rid of him this summer, they would have at least giving him a goodbye on the last day of the season alongside Aaron Ramsey. There were no words said, no tears, no longing wave. That will come in 2020.

When you look at the make-up of the squad in 2019/20, you can see why Koscielny still has a part to play.

Sokratis is the senior defender. Every other player will be competing to partner the Greek international.

Currently we have Koscielny, Shkodran Mustafi, Rob Holding, Calum Chambers and Kostadinos Mavropanos as the defensive options alongside Sokratis.

Holding was fabulous last season, but there is no guarantee he will be ready for the start of the forthcoming season, whilst Mavropanos could really do with getting himself out on loan for a year.

That leave Koscielny, Mustafi and Chambers.

Arsenal have been heavily linked with William Saliba. A deal for the French teenager is reportedly close. Part of the deal means that he will remain on loan at St Etienne next season. Not a bad thing as it will see him play a full campaign before joining the Arsenal squad in 2020.

To finance the deal, Calum Chambers will be moved on. Arsenal would command similar in transfer fee as for Chambers as they would splash out on Saliba.

Taking into account Chambers spent last year on loan to Fulham, sending Saliba out on loan would maintain the numbers in defence from last season.

So then we have Mustafi and Koscielny.

Mustafi would still command a fee in excess of £20million were he to be sold. He has shown during his time at Arsenal that he is not good enough to be 1st choice alongside Sokratis in the short term, and be the leader of the defence in the long term.

Arsenal should cash in on Mustafi. They should then target a defender who is under 25 and who they believe could be 1st choice tomorrow, and for years to come.

With Sokratis also the wrong side of 30, Arsenal need to blood in the next senior, 1st choice defender next season.

So selling Mustafi and Chambers, signing Saliba and a 1st choice defender means that Koscielny stays for a season.

Then in 2020, Saliba (assuming we clinch the deal) returns and becomes Koscielny’s replacement.

2019/20:
Sokratis, New CB, Holding, Koscielny
Saliba: Loaned
Mavropanos: Loaned
Chambers: Sold
Mustafi: Sold

2020/21:
New CB, Holding, Saliba, Sokratis, Mavropanos
Koscielny: Released

You then add the likes of Zach Medley and Dan Ballard as replacements for Sokratis in 2021 (and for Mavropanos if he does not kick on).

By keeping Koscielny for 1 more season allows for Arsenal to replace both Chambers and Mustafi this summer. With the succession planning above, it would mean that if we make the right to signings, we would not have to sign another central defender until 2022 at the earliest.

Koscielny deserves his goodbye.

Keenos

Yacini Brahimi would see Arsenal cash in on veteran midfielder

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Whilst the bid for Wilfried Zaha was breaking on Sky Sports News a few days ago, there was another deal on the ticker going fairly unnoticed that had broke earlier in the day.

According to Sky sources, Arsenal are in talks with attacking midfielder Yacine Brahimi.

The 29-year-old is currently a free agent after running down his contract at Portuguese side Porto.

Many people turned their noise up at the deal when it broke earlier in the day, prior to the Zaha announcement. Questions were asked as to why Arsenal were looking to be a 29-year-old.

The free transfer aspect led to comments that “Arsenal are trying to do things on the cheap again”. But there is plenty of logic behind Arsenal targeting the experienced Algerian.

Having lost Aaron Ramsey on a free transfer to Juventus, Arsenal have been in the market for a cheap attacking option to provide some strength in depth behind Mesut Ozil.

Signing Brahimi would also likely see Henrikh Mkhitaryan sold.

Raul Sanllehi’s remit this summer is to get in control of Arsenal’s wage bill whilst improving the quality of the squad.

Signing Kieran Tierney and selling Saed Kolasinac is an example of how we can sign bett4er, younger players whilst lowering that was bill.

Mkhitaryan is 30-years-old and on £180,000 a week. He is one of the clubs 3 highest earners alongside Mesut Ozil and Peirre-Emerick Aubameyang. Last season he started just half of the Premier League games. He is on 1st XI wages but is not a 1st team regular.

Sanllehi has spoken not allowing players to enter the last year of their contract.

“one of our priorities is not to get to the last year of contracts.

“The only way to get to the end of a contract is when you are ready to release that player at the end of that contract.

“We cannot get to the last year of the contract. If we cannot get a renewal before that, then we may have to sell.”

Mkhitaryan is entering the last year in his contract. This gives the club 3 choices:

  • Offer him a new contract – unlikely due to age unless he wants a big pay cut
  • Sell him – He would still command £10-15million on the transfer market
  • Keep for a year and release – This would cost the club £10million in wages

The preferred option for Arsenal would be to sell Mkhitaryan for £10-£15million and sign a replacement on half the wages. This would knock £5million off the wage bill.

Brahimi was on £40,000 a week at Porto. Arsenal could double his wages to £80,000 a week, offering him a 3-year-deal in the process – a figure that would see him pocket £12.5million which is probably not too far what he has earned in his entire career so far.

£80,000 would also be more than he would likely get elsewhere, unless a Chinese club came in for him (which is probable).

Arsenal were linked with Brahami back in 2015 for £30million. Last season he scored 13 goals in 49 appearances as Porto finished second behind champions Benfica.

He is a solid player who is not too far away from Mkhitaryan ability wise. The key is he saves us money.

Over 3 years, Brahimi on £80,000 will cost the club £12.5m. Selling Mkhitaryan would save the club in the region of £10million in wages and see the club rake in a further £10million (minimum) in transfer fee.

The salary saving alone makes the deal worthwhile as it would free up as further £5million from Arsenal’s wage bill. This is already on top of what we have culled with Ramsey, Petr Cech, Danny Welbeck and Stephan Lichsteiner leaving

Those 5 leaving, and swapping Tiernay for Kolasinac and Brahimi for mkhitaryan would see Arsenal free up nearly £30million in wages.

Brahimi might not be the most exciting signing, but selling Mkhitaryan and bringing him in is a sensible decision.

Keenos

Full extent of Sanllehi’s “tough job” exposed

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When Arsene Wenger left 12 months ago, we all knew the club was in a bit of a mess. The feeling was at the time that it would take Ivan Gazidis, Raul Sanllehi and Sven Milsintat 3 summer transfer windows to get the club on the right track.

Gazidis then upped and left. I would say it was a captain leaving a sinking ship, but he was more of a rate scurrying away.

12 months after Wenger’s departure and the picture of how badly the club was being run towards the end of the Gazidis / Wenger  era is now clear to all.

As always, Swiss Ramble puts the clubs financials in simple, easy to understand language, with some pretty graphs alongside it. Before reading the rest of this blog, take your time to read every single Tweet in the below thread. It will give you a greater insight into the financial situation of Arsenal. Knowledge is power.

The success of Liverpool this season highlighted just how poorly Arsenal have been run in recent years.

Arsenal and Liverpool have near identical income excluding player sales, yet Liverpool have managed to build a team that has won the Champions League and ran Man city close, whilst Arsenal built a squad capable of just 5th.

The difference between the two has nothing to do with money put in by owners. What Liverpool FSG put into the club 9 years ago was to write off the debt that the previous owners left behind.

When you look at net spend over the last 5 years, Arsenal have spent £50million more. Yet gross spend Liverpool have spent £200million more.

Liverpool have built a superior squad through:

  • Working the transfer market – buying players with sell on value, and selling high
  • Sensible salary spending

By focusing their transfer on younger players, Liverpool were able to make a profit on almost every player they sold. Over the last 5 years, they have generated £250million more in player sales than Arsenal. This enabled them to then go big on the likes of Alisson and Virgil van Dijk.

Arsenal meanwhile have spent nearly £150million on Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Alexandre Lacazette and Mesut Ozil. We are basically writing that money off.

Look at what Arsenal have spent on Lucas Perez, Shokdran Mustafi & Granit Xhaka in recent years. Nearly £100million spent, are they really good enough? The truth is in the last 5 years Arsenal have made some very expensive acquisitions that have not worked out.

And it is not just what you buy players for, but what you sell them for.

Arsenal received just £10million for the sale of Alexis Sanchez, Aaron Ramsey, Jack Wilshere, Danny Welbeck and Wojech Szczesny. In January Liverpool sold Dominic Solanke to Bournemouth for £19million.

I estimate that had they been sold a year earlier, the 5 Arsenal players mentioned above would have generated nearly £200million in player sales.

Arsenal have performed poorly in the transfer market over the last 5 years.

The wage bill is also a problem. Perhaps Arsenal’s biggest problem.

We have a lot of money tied up in Ozil, Aubameyang and Henrikh Mkhitaryan. Nearly £750,000 a week. The 3 players take up 18% of Arsenal’s total wage bill.

Whilst Wenger’s socialist wage bill – where the highest earner would only be a certain amount more than the lowest earner – caused us problems, offering big wages to ageing players is also an issue. Especially if we are looking to sell them on.

We are unable to sell Ozil and Mkhitaryan due to their wages.

The pair earn nearly £30million a year between them. It causes us huge problems, especially as neither are exactly performing to the high levels of Mo Salah or Sadio Mane.

So where are Arsenal now?

  • We have too many ageing players on high wages who would not generate much income if sold
  • The overall quality of the squad is not good enough

And this is where it becomes very clear just how tough Sanllehi’s job is.

Sanllehi needs to:

  • Improve the quality of the squad
  • Lower the age of the squad
  • Get more out of Arsenal’s high wage bill

In simple terms, Arsenal need to buy better than what they have, whilst paying the incoming players less than those they are replacing. And we are hamstrung by not getting much money from those leaving.

Kieran Tierney coming in is an example of Sanllehi’s objective in action.

At 22-years-old, Tierney is the sort of young talent Arsenal should be targeting, and at a reported £20million + £5million in add ons, highlights that you do not need to spend £50million to sign a top young, British full back.

Tiernay is also set to agree a contract worth around £75,000 a week. Bosnian Kolasinac is currently on £115,000 a week. £40,000 more than Tierney.

In Tiernay, Arsenal are buying someone younger, cheaper and better than what they currently have. It is the type of deal Sanllehi will have to do more of this summer.

The problem that Sanllehi faces is there a lot of highly paid players that will need to be replaced by younger, cheaper options over the next 2 summers:

Arsenal players over 30

Laurent Koscielny (33)
Nacho Monreal (33)
Sokratis Papastathopoulos (31)
Henrikh Mkhitaryan (30)
Mesut Özil (30)
David Ospina (30)
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (30)

The above 7 players (bar perhaps Sokratis & Aubameyang) will need to be replaced over the next 12 months. That is at least 5 senior professionals out the door.

We then have the younger players, on big money, who are not really good enough.

Arsenal players who should not be at the club after 2020

Shkodran Mustafi
Carl Jenkinson
Mohamed Elneny
Emiliano Martínez
Sead Kolašinac
Calum Chambers

So Sanllehi needs to oversee the sale of 11 members over the 25-man senior squad over the next two summers. Each replaced with someone younger, cheaper and better.

Add these 11 players to Welbeck, Cech, Lichsteiner and Ramsey and you are looking at 15 players of the 2018/19 squad likely to leave the club in the 2 summers following. It is a huge turnover of playing staff.

In the summer of 2018 we also released Santi Cazorla, Per Mertersacker and Jack Wilshere.

Sanllehi recently spoke about ensuring that Arsenal do not get into another Ramsey / Sanchez / Ozil situation where you are letting players run down their contract. His opinion is that 12 months prior to their contract expiring, they either sign the deal on the table or are sold. This will generate much needed funds for Arsenal.

For the 2020/21 season, Arsenal may well only have 12 players in the first team squad who were in the 1st team squad in 2018/19

Sokratis Papastathopoulos (32)
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (31)
Alexandre Lacazette (29)
Bernd Leno (28)
Granit Xhaka (27)
Héctor Bellerín (25)
Rob Holding (24)
Lucas Torreira (24)
Alex Iwobi (24)
Konstantinos Mavropanos (22)
Ainsley Maitland-Niles (22)
Matteo Guendouzi (21)

To this 12 players you can add the likes of Reiss Nelson, Emile Smith Rowe, Bukayo Saka or Xavier Amaechi, Dan Ballard or Zach Medley and either Eddie Nketiah or Folarin Balogun. That would leave a 1st team squad with 17 players. Over the next 2 summers Arsenal need to buy 8 senior players.

Tiernay will be the first of these. And if Arsenal can get deals over the line for Wilfried Zaha (who I am not a fan of), William Saliba and Gabriel Martinelli this summer it will be a huge step towards addressing the quality and age of the squad.

Those 4 would take the squad for 2020/21 up to 21. Then depending on who is sold this summer (ie If Mustafi leaves, he will be replaced) we will have a further 6  big signings (or promotions from youth) to make in 2020: Ozil replacement, Mustafi replacement, back up left back, back up right back, 2x back up keepers). This would take us to a 27 man senior squad – although some will be under 21 so excluded from the 25 man register Premier League squad.

I would leave us with a squad where the majority of players are under 25, a hungrier, cheaper, more talented squad then we currently have,

Sanllehi has 2 big summers ahead of him. He needs to get it right. But it is not easy.

Keenos