Tag Archives: Arsenal

Positive, positive Arsenal

As I sit here on Sunday afternoon writing this I am in a relaxed and reflective mood.

A weekend of seeing family, a BBQ in the sun and then a pub lunch in Epping Forest on Sunday in the rain, I have had a cracking weekend even if it meant I missed going to The Arsenal.

And The Arsenal result has certainly helped with my mood.

After a tough two opening games for Unai Emery, we face West Ham on Saturday, winning 3-1 in what was a fairly rusty display.

Some tried to paint Emery as a man under pressure. I saw one journalist say he was “favourite for the sack race”, and that he was under tremendous pressure from the Arsenal fans.

It was certainly a case of the journalist trying to create a story rather than report the news.

The only people I have seen being super-negative about the start of the Emery-era are attention seeking wankers in social media.

Regardless of whether they were previously Wenger-In or Wenger-Out, there is an equal number abusing Emery for RTs and recognition. On both sides, thy have shown themselves as not true Arsenal fans and are best off ignored.

As for the game, I was not at it as have only seen brief highlights on Match if the Day.

From the 8 minutes of football I saw, the following observations were made:

  • Sokratis is the proper defender we have missed for a decade
  • There is a player in Granit Xhaka; he just needs to be used correctly
  • We need to play Lucas Torreira behind Xhaka
  • Mkhitaryan is a different player when Ozil isn’t playing

There are clearly some huge positives to be taken from the beginning of the Emery-era; even if it has taken 3 games to get the first positive result.

The difference between the Liverpool / Arsenal punditry made interesting listening too.

They heavily criticised Arsenal for sending both full backs forward, but then praised Liverpool for employing the same tactics and saying “thats the modern game”.

It highlights that the “expert” pundits will change their mind on tactics depending on what agenda they want to pursue.

In this case it was criticise Arsenal & praise Liverpool.

What would have been good is for someone to take the time comparing the way both sides set up.

The issue is not that Arsenal’s full backs bomb forward, but the lack of cover they get from their midfielders.

Liverpool played with Georginio Wijnaldum and James Milner sitting.

Both men would cover outwide when their full backs bomb forward.

Manchester City use a different tactic, with Fernandinho sitting between the centre backs creating a back 3 when Kyle Walker and Benjamin Mendy bomb on.

Arsenal’s problem is, and has been probably since Gilberto Silva left the club, that no one in the middle of the park covers the full backs when the go forward.

It just further supports playing Torreira and Xhaka together.

A two man shield will mean that we can have a solid 4 men covering the full backs when the are in the opposition box.

It is all about balance.

Whilst I have mentioned Liverpool. They are top. 9 points from 9; and are being talked up as potential champions. The crown already on their head.

But they have played West Ham (h), Crystal Palace (a) & Brighton (h).

Some perspective is needed.

Last season, Arsenal were awful in finishing 6th. Yet they beat West Ham (h), Crystal Palace (a) & Brighton (h).

So had we had Liverpool’s opening 3 games this season in 2017/18, we would have been top of the league, 9 points out of 9.

This season I would expect Arsenal to win all 3 of the games Liverpool have – we have already won 1 of the 3.

We are 3 games into the season. Just like Arsenal were not a bad team after losing to Manchester City and Chelsea, beating West Ham, Crystal Palace and Brighton does not make Liverpool a great team.

Have a good bank holiday Monday and it is back to football on Sunday with a visit to Cardiff.

Let’s be positive and ignore those negative attention seekers.

Keenos

Arsenal add £10million to wage bill

After writing a couple of successful financial blogs over the summer, I have had a couple of people ask me about Arsenal’s wage bill going into 2018/19 and how it differs to last year.

A few of these requests came after the news that Arsenal needed to shift Mohamed Elneny off the wage bill to free up space on our wage bill. And the rumours that Aaron Ramsey was unable to get the wage increase he wanted as Arsenal could not afford it.

Firstly lets address Arsenal needing to sell players as we need to “save on wages”.

This is literally a made up story by the media for hits. Arsenal’s wage bill is not a huge issue. In fact, over the years, we have been heavily criticised by the same media for not paying enough, for paying too low.

Now across to the excellent Swiss Ramble:

These are the latest figures of wage to turnover. As you can see, Arsenal are one of the most efficiently run clubs in this regard.

Of course, in 2017/18 and this season we have lost the Champions League income – worth about £20million a season in TV money, prize money and gate receipts (remembering that it is offset against Europa League TV money, prize money and gate receipts).

Also we have increased our wage bill since then with the acquisitions of Alexandre Lacazette, Pierre Emerick Aubameyang & Henrikh Mkhitaryan on higher wages than those we replaced; and Mesut Ozil’s bumper new contract.

To offset this, we have additional income from our sleeve sponsor deal worth about £10million.

A guestimation is that our current wages to turnover is around 55%, which will put us around Liverpool and Manchester City, and still way below Chelsea.

This brings me to my first conclusion – why are stories being written about Arsenal needing to sell a players due to us being able to service our wage bill, but not clubs who have similar (or more) wages to turnover?

It also shows the awesome Manchester United Commercial Machine.

The two Manchester clubs have very similar wages, easily both having the highest in the Premier League. Yet United spend just 45% of their turnover on wages. This is due to their incredible £580m+ turnover – £150million a year more than Arsenal.

Imagine what Arsenal could achieve if we could increase expenditure on transfer amortisation and wages by £150million a year?

https://twitter.com/Flannyballs/status/1029611096301289474

Are the media really trying to paint a story that the 6th richest club in the world are having financial problems? Our accounts are made public. We are certainly not over stretching ourselves to the point where we need to sell sell Mohammed Elneny in order to balance the books.

It must also be remembered that Arsenal gave Mohammed Elneny a new deal this year and yet now suddenly we can not afford it?

But what about the £7million rule?

The rule is a load of rubbish and often written about to support poorly researched articles by those who misunderstand the rules.

It is not a line in the sand that you should not cross. It is not FFP where you get heavily fined if you increase your wage bill by more than £7million.

It is a benchmark bought in during the 2012/13 season to stop clubs spending beyond their means. But that means if a club can show that they are still spending within their means, not much can happen.

Remember, Arsenal with the above guestimate have a 55% wages to turnover. There are other sides closer to 70%. Arsenal are clearly spending within their means.

And since 2013, Arsenal have increased their revenue by about £130million. £7million x 5 (the amount of seasons) is just £35million. So we can clearly prove that our revenue has increased enough to increase the wage bill by well over the £7million a year guideline.

But all this does not make good headlines or sell advertising space.

So on to Arsenal’s wage bill.

By my estimation, our wage bill has increased by about £10million against September 1st 2017.

In that time we have sold the likes of Francis Coquelin, Theo Walcott, Alexis Sanchez, Olivieir Giroud, Lucas Perez and Joel Campbell. As well as Per Mertesacker, Santi Cazorla and Jack Wilshere leaving for free.

These guys combined cost the club about £40m in salaries a year. Nearly 20% of the wage bill!

We have then signed Kostadinos Mavropanos, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Henrikh Mkhtaryan, Bernd Leno, Lucas Torreira, Sokratis, Stephan Lichtsteiner and Matteo Guendouzi.

These guys added ~£35million to the Arsenal wage bill.

Than we have the new Mesut Ozil deal. That contract alone would have increase our wage bill by about £8million.

Add new deals for Granit Xhaka, Calum Chambers, Ainsley Maitland-Niles and Mohamed Elneny as well as other smaller increases (including increase in Employers NI) and it equates to about a £10million increase.

Arsenal did not need to sell to buy in the summer. nor do we need to get rid of Elneny to pay what Aaron Ramsey is demanding.

Ignore the press about us being in a financial crisis. We are one of the best well run (financially) clubs in world football.

Now we just need to increase our commercial revenue to enable us to by more Aubameyang’s of this world, and less Danny Welbeck’s.

Keenos

Unai Emery to ring in the changes

Two games into the season, playing against 2018/19 champions Manchester City and away to Chelsea. Arsenal are on zero points. But there is no need to press a panic button

Arsenal have beaten Manchester City just once one 7 games – that FA Cup Semi-final, and not beaten Chelsea at Stamford Bridge since 2011 – when Robin van Persie scored a hat trick.

Last year we got 1 point from the two games in a torrid draw against Chelsea.

There are positives to be had. Whilst we did not get the result against Chelsea, it is the best I have seen us play at Stamford Bridge for 7 years.

Moving forward, things are hopefully about to get a lot easier for Arsenal.

We start today with a home game against West Ham, the start of a run of 8 games which you would be disappointed if Arsenal did not get at least 18 points out of. 5 wins and a draw.

West Ham will be the 2nd game of the season I have already missed.

The club messed up my away scheme which meant they did not buy a Chelsea ticket on my behalf, and I am with family over this Bank Holiday weekend so unable to go West Ham.

Luckily for me going down The Arsenal is not a job, but something I choose to do, so I do not need to rely on going to every game just to earn a modest income. I have the Monday – Friday grind for that.

That panic button is certainly not ready to be pressed, but it might be time for Emery to ring in a couple of changes.

The first is formation.

During the first half of pre-season, Emery seemed to favour 4312 with 2 up top.

With players returning from World Cup duty, and perhaps under pressure to try and put Mesut Ozil and Henrikh Mkhitaryan into the same team, we started the season 4321, leaving Alexandre Lacazette on the bench.

It might be worthwhile for Emery to revisit the formation he favoured during pre-season.

Lacazette and Aubameyang. A dual threat.

Some will say that they can not play together, but both are smart players who enjoy each others company. Lacazette has a tendency to drift to the right during games, Aubameyang the left. So whilst the would both be down the middle, they would not be getting in eachothers way.

Thinking out loud, they could become the new Dwight Yorke and Andy Cole.

The problem with playing the two upfront is then we sacrifice any sort of width we had from playing Mkhitaryan, Ozil and Alex Iwobi (or Aaron Ramsey). We would ultimately play one number 10. A shoot out between Mkhitaryan and Ozil.

This would mean that we are once more relying on our full backs to provide the width.

Nacho Monreal is the only option on the left, but it is perhaps time for Stephan Lichsteiner to come in at right back.

This is not a slight on Hector Bellerin. He has not been as poor as some are making out.

On another day against Chelsea, if the finishing was better, he would’ve come away from the game with a hat trick of assists. Instead he was horribly exposed towards the end, with Chelsea’s winner coming from his flank.

The problem is under Emery’s system he does not have the cover of a winger. He is expected to defend and attack, and it is draining.

Mauricio Pochettino up the road uses his full backs in a similar way, but he rotated them almost every game.

If Emery is to ask his full backs to bet up and down the wing every game, he is going to have to expect them to run out of gas.

In Lichsteiner Arsenal have an experienced, dependable right back who needs to be rotated in and out with Bellerin to ensure that both men do not tire too quickly.

It actually would have been a smart move to sub Bellerin off for Lichsteiner on 70 minutes against Chelsea, such was how tired he looked.

The same scenario is on the left. Once Sead Kolasinac is back I would expect him to share the duties at full back with Monreal.

That leaves the middle of the park.

By playing a central 3, it will give the defence a lot of cover, and also ensure we have men who can drop out wide when the full backs have bombed forward.

You see Manchester City do this a lot when Kyle Walker and Benjamin Mendy have bombed on; Fernadinho sits between the centre backs ensuring defensive stability.

Lucas Torreira needs to start alongside Matteo Guendouzi.

I think as the weeks role on, we will see Granit Xhaka come in for Guendouzi, but the moment the Frenchman certainly deserves his place in the team on merit. 

So do we got for Aaron Ramsey or Granit Xhaka?

My preference is the Welshman.

As we are at home, Ramsey is more attacking than his Swiss team mate. With a 3 man forward line rather than a 4 man, we need one of the midfield 3 to be able to break forward and support. Ramsey is the best player in the squad for that.

Cech

Lichsteiner Mustafi Sokratis Nacho

Ramsey Torreira Guendouzi

Mkhitaryan

Lacazette Aubameyang

*since writing this blog Ozil has called in “sick”

Keenos