Tag Archives: Arsenal

Arsenal ready to gamble on Reiss Nelson

4 Replies

It looks like Reiss Nelson is set to return to Fulham on loan. This will get a few scratching their heads as to why we are not selling him.

Nelson has never really kicked on from being a talented youngster. Once considered the gem of the academy, he was usurped by a 18-year-old Bukayo Saka who in the space of 6-months, caught up Nelson and overtook him, despite him being 2 years younger.

Following a successful loan deal to TSG Hoffenheim, 2019/20 should have been Nelson’s breakthrough season. He played 17 Premier League games having only made 3 previous appearances. But the issue for him as at the same time, Saka burst onto the scene.

That same season, Saka played 26 Premier League games are was already performing levels above Nelson. That dented the older mans playing time as Arsenal turned their focus onto developing young Saka.

In the years since, Nelson has struggled to get playing time. Mainly due to the form and fitness of Saka, but also because of his own form and fitness. A loan deal in Holland failed to ignite, and last season a move to Fulham was hamstrung with injury.

2019/20 remains the most Premier League games he has played in his career, and he is now 25.

Some will say “he never got his chance”. But to have given him his chance would have meant pushing Saka down the pecking order, and Bukayo not getting as much of a chance. I think we made the right decision as to what youngster we backed.

The issue now is that Nelson is no longer seen as a raw young talent. He turns 26 in December and has just 61 Premier League appearances to his name. He made his debut back in 2017 under Arsene Wenger!

Last year the plan would have been to get Nelson some playing time with Fulham, which then would have boosted his transfer value.

When you look at Brentford having a £35m offer for Omari Hutchinson rejected, Arsenal paying Chelsea £48m for Nono Madueke, who then paid £48.5m for Jamie Gittens. Never has the winger market been so expensive!

For me, Nelson is probably the level below Madueke and Gittens, but the same level as Hutchinson – although the former Arsenal youngster is still only 21 so teams will pay a little more for his potential. The only thing these guys have above Nelson is they have have at least one full season of top flight football under their belt.

With his checkered injury record, lack of of a full season and heading towards 26-years-old, Nelson will be a player many clubs will pass up on. And that crashes his transfer value.

I expect Arsenal would have hoped to get an offer in excess of £20m had he shone for Fulham last summer. Instead he spent most of the season in the medical room and we would probably struggle to get £10m for him this.

But with 2-years left on his contract, it is not all a disaster.

If he joins Fulham on loan and puts in a decent season, playing 30+ Premier League games and maybe hitting double figures for goals and assists, his transfer value will quickly rise.

Clubs will take notice and suddenly we will be back talking about £20m+. Maybe even £25m+.

So Arsenal’s position is we either take a low transfer fee now and he is gone, or we take a gamble.

The gamble is that if he has a good season, we could see that £25m. If he has another injury his season, we might end up getting nothing.

It reminds me a little bit of the conundrum: Would you rather £1m now or flip a coin for £50m. I have always gone for a coin flip.

For me, £8-10m for Nelson does not really do much to our finances. I would rather lose him for £5m in a years time if it also meant we might get £25m.

Whilst I appreciate some fans will see this as a gamble not worth taking, and others will also complain that he is a victim of “Arteta hating young players”, just remember that we have Bukayo Saka.

I hope Nelson has a great season if he joins Fulham on loan. then they might look to splash some real cash on him.

Keenos

Havertz, White, Martinelli and more could “leave Arsenal in the next 12 months”

Leave a reply

Having already spent close to £200m (once the Noni Madueke, Viktor Gyorekes and Cristhian Mosquera deals are announced), it is very obvious that Arsenal will need to sell to help balance the books.

Obvious candidates to be sold this summer are Olexsandr Zinchenko, Albert Sambi
Lokonga, Fabio Vieira and Reiss Nelson. These four fall into the “no longer needed, they will depart the club” category. Now it is about selling them.

But alongside these, “over the next 12 months, there needs to be one significant outgoing to recalibrate after recalibrate after what has been a big summer of spending” according to the BBC’s Sami Mokbel, talking on The Latte Firm podcast.

Kai Havertz

A surprise one to open.

With Viktor Gyorekes incoming, Kai Havertz is no longer the undisputed number one striker for Arsenal. And many fans will be delighted with that.

Add into the fact that Declan Rice is making that left sided central role his own, Havertz is looking more and more like a utility player at Arsenal – covering up Gyorekes upfront, and offering a more attack minded option to Rice and Mikel Merino in the midfield position. Havertz would also be cover for Martin Odegaard.

Havertz is our highest paid player, earning in the region of £285,000 a week. That is a huge salary for someone to sit on the bench.

If Gyorekes hits the same heights as his Portugal form and Ethan Nwaneri continues his development over the next 12 months, Havertz might find himself surplus to requirements.

Whilst you would not see us return to a single striker option, you have to feel that his £15m a year wages could be better spent on two “2nd string” players rather than a single man covering 2 or 3 positions.

At the end of this season, Havertz will a book value of £24m, so any offer above £50m would get Arsenal interested, clearing £26m in profit and a huge salary saving.

Ben White

Still sticking with the “I would not have thought of him”.

I remember when we signed Ben White, many were critical. But what a signing he has been.

After a slow-ish start where he came under a lot of criticism, White quickly made the right back position his own. But he now finds himself as 2nd choice right back behind Jurrien Timber. And with Mosquera incoming, he will be 3rd choice as the right sided centre back.

Whilst I am sure Mikel Arteta would prefer not to sell White, the Englishman may wish to leave to reignite his career in 12 months. He will have a book value of just £10m.

Arsenal would expect to get around £40-50m for White, representing a book profit of £30-40m.

Gabriel Martinelli

I will always have a soft spot for Gabriel Martinelli in the way he went from completely unknown to one of the best left wingers in the world in a short space of time.

For me, Martinelli is still one of the best left wingers in the world. But he has also not stepped up to the next level since 2022/23. Whether this is due to his injury taking away a bit of spark, or his isolation due to Mikel Arteta’s attacking design.

Not all players suit all ways of playing. Arteta likes to overload the right, where we are strong with Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard. The left is more locked down defensively with Martinelli and Declan Rice. This means Martinelli’s attacking instincts and blunted and he gets less help from Rice than Odegaard does from Saka.

Any shift to try and provide Martinelli more assistance on the left will be at the detriment of the overload on the right.

Martinelli currently struggles playing the isolated position, and that is why we are looking at one v one merchants such as Nico Williams, Eberechi Eze and Rodrygo.

If Eze or Rodrygo come in, the likelihood is Martinelli will be relegated to the bench. And like with Havertz, his £180k a week salary is a huge financial burden for a player no longer first choice.

At such a low initial transfer fee, almost all of an incoming transfer fee for Martinelli would be profit. Arsenal could expect to see £70m+ in profit, and nearly £10m a year in salary savings.

Leandro Trossard

I was reluctant to add Leandro Trossard to this list initially, as I do not categorise him as significant outgoing.

Trossard has been a wonderful signing since joining in January 2023, and he has shown himself to be a brilliant impact sub. He has an ability to change games off the bench with his instinctive play that no one else in the squad has.

But Trossard has never been anything more than a backup dancer for Arsenal – providing cover on the wings, upfront and as an impact sub. He would not be a significant player to lose, and at £20-£30m would not represent a significant incoming transfer fee. This would only amount to around £10-20m profit were he to be sold this summer.

My feeling is Eze will be coming in to replace Trossard, with Martinelli dropping to the bench. As a result Trossard will be sold, but he will not be the man departing to help balance our books.

Gabriel Jesus

The headache with Gabriel Jesus is how he overcomes his injury.

We are unlikely to see him pull on an Arsenal shirt until December. And that is if all continues to go well with his recovery. That means Jesus will likely be sold in January, at the earliest. But will someone want to take risk on a player with his recent injury record.

Taking into account Jesus’ salary – he is our 2nd highest paid player on around £265k a week – Arsenal will struggle to get a significant transfer fee.

In 2026, Jesus will have a book value of £9m. I think the best we could hope for is £20m in transfer fee (a profit of £11m). But the big saving will be in wages – close to £14m a year.

Jakub Kiwior

Like with Ben White, Kiwior departing will be due to him wanting to leave and not because Mikel Arteta does not want him.

Once Mosquera joins, we will have 8 defenders for 4 positions. I do not remember the last time we were not reliant on full backs covering the centre, or centre backs covering the full backs.

Whilst I get that Riccardo Calafiori, Mosquera and Timber could all provide cover on the left side of defence, I like the idea that we have 4 specialist players providing cover for our 4 main defenders.

However, if Kiwior wants to leave for first team football, we should not stand in his way. And if that is this summer, I do not see the worth of us committing funds to a replacement when we have 3 players that could do the job.

Kiwior has a book value of around £8m, and Arsenal would look at asking for a fee in the region of £40m for the Pole. Whilst he would not be a significant departure in terms of importance to the first team, he would be significant in terms of profit.

Have we missed anyone else? Let us know in the comments.

Arsenal all ready for Rodrygo

2 Replies

Any deal for Rodrygo was always only going to pick up pace once Real Madrid’s Club World Cup campaign was over.

Last night, the former-great team were knocked out at the semi-final stage of the post-season friendly competition, meaning the door is now open for Arsenal to begin serious talks.

Rodrygo’s stats in the Club World Cup highlights where the Brazilian is in new manager Xabi Alonso’s plans:

Starts: 1
Appearances: 3
Left on the bench: 3
Minutes played: 92 (17% of available minutes)

It has been made very clear to Rodrygo that he is not going to be a regular starter for Alonso, so it is no surprise that his representatives are rumoured to have a meeting with the club next week to discuss their clients future.

Rodrygo’s position at Real Madrid reminds me of Alexis Sanchez back in 2014.

Clearly talented players, both men were consistently played out of position to make way for more high-profile, better players. For Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Jr, read Lionel Messi and Neymar Jr.

In 2014, Barcelona signed Luis Suarez which left Sanchez as their 4th choice forward. He decided to push for a move to Arsenal where he could flourish in his favoured position and become a global superstar. For a time Sanchez was up there with the best players in the world.

Already competing with Vinicius Jr, Mbappe and Jude Bellingham (when he plays as a false 9), Rodrygo now has the highly talented trio of Endrick, Franco Mastantuono and Gonzalo Garcia to contend with.

At the Club World Cup, Rodrygo has been victim of Xabi Alonson continuing to shuffle the pack.

In the Spaniards 6 games in charge, he has played:

433 with Rodrygo right wing
433 with Federico Valverde
352 with Trent Alexander Arnold at right wing back and Vinicius Jr and Gonzalo up top (twice)
4312 with Bellingham playing behind Vinicius Jr and Gonzalo
4312 with Gonzalo playing behind Vinicius Jr and Mbappe

Rodrygo will likely disappear for a few weeks on holiday, resting and recuperating from the extended season. Whilst he is away, his representatives will be establishing if he has a future at Real Madrid, and if not what other options are there.

Coming to Arsenal, to be first choice left winger, will be high on his list of options. As will joining Bayern Munich following Jamal Musiala season long injury and Leroy Sane departing.

Following next weeks talks, Rodrygo will have a couple of weeks to ponder over his future before returning to Europe to make a final decision.

If it is Arsenal, I would expect the deal to happen in early August, at the earliest.

Rodrygo would unlikely join us in the US pre-season tour due to the late finish to the season, and negotiations with Real Madrid are unlikely to be concluded quickly.

I would expect his arrival to be close to, or after, the season has started. We would then have 2-3 weeks to get him match fit and ready for after the first international break 3 games in.

In the meantime, talk for Noni Madueke is increasing pace.

Madueke is splitting fans for a multitude of reasons: His price tag, and coming from Chelsea.

I feel those calling him a “Chelsea reject” are some way off the mark. Last season he started 80% of Premier League games for the team that finished 4th, and it highlights that we are recruiting real quality for out back up players.

Kepa was first choice keeper at Bournemouth – finished 9th.
Christian Norgaard was captain of Brentford – finished 10th.
Noni Madueke was first choice right winger at Chelsea – finished 4th.

Madueke would be coming in to be backup to Saka, and a left footed option on the left wing to provide further cover (for potentially Rodrygo). He is Premier League ready and offers the raw pace and unpredictability that the team is missing.

Still only 23, I do think it is incredible that fans are writing him off just because who he plays for.

I do get fans questioning his price tag, but what does it matter if it does not stop us doing the other business we want? And you also need to take into account his much lower wages.

Yes, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia cost PSG just £59m, and he is one of the best left wingers in the world. But they are also paying him of £300k a week putting his total cost at £137.

My bet is we get Madueke for around £45m + £5m add ons. With his wages taken into account, Madueke will likely cost us around £65-70m over 5 years. So whilst he might only be costing £9-15m less than Kvaratskhelia in transfer fee, the full cost will be over £60m less. And consider:

Bryan Mbeumo – £65m
Mathues Cunha – £62m
Anthony Elanga – £55m
Mohammed Kudus – £55m

For me, Madueke is in the same bracket as these sort of fellas. And they have set the transfer fee for talented wingers who are perhaps not good enough to be starting week in week out for a top team.

Mbeumo and Cunha are ahead of him, but they are both 3-years old. And it is why Madueke will cost £15m+ less.

Madueke is on par with Elanga and Kudus taking into account their raw talent, attributes and age profile. None of them would start for Arsenal, Manchester City or Liverpool. All 3 would be back up players.

My view is if we get Madueke for less than the £50m doing the rounds (ideally closer to £40m with add ons), and his recruitment does not impact our chase for Rodrygo, Eberechi Eze and Viktor Gyorekes, then it is a very good move.

We moan for 3 years that Saka needs to play every game and we do not have a quality back up for him. We then spend the money to sign the man who is his back up for England and who played 80% of PL minutes for the team finishing 4th and we still moan!

Have a good Wednesday.

Keenos