Tag Archives: Champions League

Poor victory, but Arsenal could qualify with 2 games to spare

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What an awful game that was. For 89 minutes, it was a snooze fest. At points, it felt like I was watching an England game. It was dull, boring and uninspiring. But someone, by hook or by crook, we got out of Belgium with 3 points.

And looking at the table, what an important 3 points it is.CL Group D Table

Despite being embarrassed at Borussia Dortmund and limping past Anderlecht, Arsenal are in a situation where they could guarantee qualification after the next round of games.

The equation is simple. We beat Anderlecht at home, which we should, we move on to 9 points. With Borussia Dortmund playing Galatasaray at home, it is likely that the German’s will win. That would leave the table looking like:Potential CL Table

 

Arsenal would have an 8 point lead on the 2 sides below them, with just 6 games to play for. Qualified after just 4 games.

The question then is what do we do with the remaining 2 games?

Go out for the win in Turkey and at home to Dortmund in an attempt to finish top (where we could still end up facing Barcelona & Atletico Madrid as it stands), or send out the youths enabling our side to be a bit fresher for the weekend fixtures.

Personally, I would favour the latter.

With our paper thin squad, and massive injury problems, any opportunity to rest the entire 1st team should be taken with both hands.

Yes, finishing top reduces the chances of facing one of Europe’s Elite, but we will have to face them at some point to win the competition, and let’s be honest, it’s unlikely that we will win the Champions League this season.

The only advantage of finishing top and getting an easier knock out game was progression to the quarter finals guaranteed more coefficient points enabling us to remain a top seed. But with the change in UEFA rankings for 2015/16, where the top seeds will now be the holders and seven league winners from the top seven European leagues, Arsenal will be 2nd seeds no matter if they make the quarter final or lose in the first knock out stage.

By sticking out the youths, it will give players a much needed mid-week off, before games against WBA & Newcastle.

Yes, it might be a bit of a defeatist view, but with our struggling league form, surely it will be more beneficial to put ourselves in the best position possible to beat WBA & Newcastle by keeping the players fresh, than playing a strongest 11 in Europe when qualification is already guaranteed?

On top of that, we could end up beating Galatasaray and Dortmund, and still finish 2nd on goal difference – we currently have 7 to make up on Dortmund.

Yesterday was shocking, but a wins a win, and if we are sitting on the 4th of November with Champions League qualification in the bag, that is positive.

Keenos

 

10 Reasons why we will beat Dortmund+ my starting 11

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1) After praising Szczesny in the ’10 reasons’ this season he goes and has a less than average game against Man City, hopefully that will be the little kick up the bum he will always need to remain focused.

2) Debuchy and Monreal out, Chambers 50/50 but who needs defenders when we have 6 players who can all play at no 10

3) Wenger is saying Bellerin is now ready, the young Barcalona born defender wont get a better chance to get a run of games at ours, like Ashley Cole (given his chance when the 2 LB’s infront of him were both out) he must hit the ground running.

4) Jack was back to normal against Man City, with Ramsey’s form being a bit hit and miss this season he needs to take control tonight.

5) Alexis, he will continue to get better and better the more he plays, his goal against Man City was pure class and nice to see some proper passion in a celebration.

6) Welbeck, I have seen worse debut’s. unlucky not to score early doors and works hard, tonight will suit him and he’s plenty of experience in the Champions League.

7) Flamini now becomes one of our most important players, being able to cover all the defensive positions on the pitch, so expect him to start on the bench to prevent him getting a yellow card early on.

8) We always seem to get out of the group stages, this season maybe Wenger has at last has worked out if you finish top you miss one of the big boys in the 1st knock out rounds.

9) Dortmund have several injury problems themselves with Mats Hummels, Nuri Şahin, İlkay Gündoğan, Jakub Błaszczykowski, Oliver Kirc, Ji Dong-won and, Marco Reus all likely to be missing

10) Wenger knows after 17 years and only 1 final and 1 semi final that this is the competition where he’s always been upstaged, maybe just maybe this year he will finally get it right … (?)

My Starting 11 – Chesney, Bellerin, Kos, BFG, Gibbs, Jack, Ramsey, Ozil (free role), Alexis,Ox Welbeck

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Could failure to get out of group benefit Arsenal?

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So the Champions League draw is done, and once more Arsenal have a tricky group. Once more drawn against Borussia Dortmund, “Welcome2Hell Part II” with another trip to Turkey, this time facing Galatasaray, and trickier then it might seem games against Belgium champions Anderlecht.

Here is a controversial theory for you, would Arsenal actually benefit more by finishing 3rd and dropping into the Europa League? Hear me out.

Trophies

It is a well used statistic since Wednesday’s win over Besiktas that Arsenal have now qualified for the Champions League 17 seasons in a row. In that 17 years, we have made the final just once. We have only got past the 1st knockout stage 6 times. Just 35%. Without being defeatist, we will not win the competition.

Our record of having not beaten a top side in England also stretches to Europe. As soon as we have faced a bigger side (Barcelona, Bayern Munich, AC Milan, Chelsea, Manchester United) we have been knocked out.

So what will happen this season? We will finish 2nd to Dortmund in the group, get drawn against one of Europe’s Elite in the 1st knockout stage, and get knocked out. We have little chance of winning the trophy.

Rather than finish 2nd, would it not be better to finish 3rd? Drop into the Europa League, take it seriously, and compete for a trophy we have more chance of winning? The only time in the last 17 years that we dropped into the Europa League (or UEFA Cup), we made the final, and lost a game we should have one.

It might seem a crazy idea to want to get knocked out, but ask yourself the question, would you rather:

a) Be knocked out in the 1st knockout round
b) Have a trip to Stadion Narodowy in Warsaw to look forward to in May?

Money

The Champions League is a massive money making machine. Last year, in making the 1st knockout round, Arsenal €27,232,000 in prize money and TV money.

Using last year’s figures, just by qualifying for the Champions League, Arsenal will get:

  • €8,600,000 for participating
  • €11,132,000 in TV money
  • €1,000,000 for every group game win
  • €500,000 for every group game draw

So if Arsenal finish 3rd in the group, and get knocked out (with, say, 2 wins and 2 draws), they will pocket €22,732,000. That would be just €5,000,000 less than the previous year. This can easily be made up by progression in the Europa League. Juventus received an additional €2,000,000 in prize money for making the semi-finals of the Europa League last year and an additional €5,025,115 in TV money. A similar performance by Arsenal generating a similar amount of money would see Arsenal earn €29,757,115 from European football. So making the semi final of the Europa League would generate more €€€€ than making the 1st knockout stage of the Champions League.

A final point to take into consideration is gate receipts. Arsenal would have made circa €4,000,000 in gate receipts from the game against Bayern Munich. A semi-final Europa League game would mean four extra games. That would generate €16,000,000 in additional revenue.

So were Arsenal to get knocked out at the group stages, and then make the semi final of the Europa League, the club would make an additional €14.5million in revenue.

Winning the Europa League would add another €5,000,000 in prize money! Not bad for ‘failure.’

Coefficient Points

Coefficient points are a calculation that UEFA uses to rank club sides for seeding in future competitions. Due to Arsenal being continually knocked out at the 1st knockout stage of the Champions League, our coefficient points have wained, resulting in us currently sitting in 10th. Luckily, due to Manchester United and Valencia not making the Champions League, we remained top seeds. However, with the likes of Burussia Dortmund and PSG hot on our heels, another early Champions League exit would see us slip behind them, and into pot 2 next season.

Best case scenario? Arsenal finish 3rd, rather than 2nd, and cash in on the extra coefficient points available in the Europa League. 5 of the 9 sides currently above Arsenal have played Europa League football in the last 4 seasons.

Last season, Juventus, in failing to make the Champions League knockout stages, got 5 more coefficient points than Arsenal. Benfica, by failing in the Champions League, but winning the Europa League, they gained 10 more coefficient points.

Infact, Benfica highlight how more beneficial it could be to get knocked out. In the 4 completed season’s that UEFA are using for their coefficient calculation for next years competition, Benfica were knocked out of the Champions League group stages 3 times. In all 3 of those seasons, they went on to gain more coefficient points than Arsenal, despite Arsenal making the knockout stages each year. This has resulted them in being over 20 points above Arsenal. Despite failing in Europe’s premier competition.

To secure Arsenal’s place as a top seed next season, Arsenal would be better off being knocked out at the group stage and having a run in the Europa League, than being knocked out at the 1st knockout stage of the Champions League.

 

Odd as it might be, there is plenty to gain from finishing 3rd rather than 2nd in the group stage. Better chance of winning a trophy, greater chance to earn more money, and increased coefficient points.

Keenos