Tag Archives: Europa League

Arsenal face tough task at home to Rennes

I am concerned about tonight.

Arsenal really should have put the tie to bed in that first leg.

Prior to Sokratis’ sending off, it was all Arsenal. We should have scored 2 or 3. Not for the first time this season we failed to get that second goal. I am confident had we got that, we would have gone on to win comfortably.

Instead it all fell apart when Sokratis received an extremely harsh second yellow which reduced Arsenal to 1-men.

Let’s get things right. It was not a yellow card. The players came together, tangled themselves. It was not even a foul. And from the resulting free kick Rennes equalised with a stunning finish.

If the first was a world class strike from a free kick that should never have been given, the second was down to simple bad luck – the ball deflecting off of Monreal. Own goal.

I could have taken a 2-1 defeat. Not the best result. But it was also not the worst, circumstances considering.

1 goal down with the away goal in the bag, Rennes not overly looking threatening despite having 11 men. You would back Arsenal to overturn the deficit quickly like they did against BATE Borisov.

Instead, in the 88th minute, Arsenal shot themselves in the foot conceding the 3rd goal froma counter attack.

I remember a game a few years ago against Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League group stages.

Having been 1-0 down at home, Olivier Giroud had made it 1-1 at half time. With 10 minutes to go. Arsenal were pushing forward. Wave after wave of attack. They were hit on the counter attack and lost the game 2-1 with Robert Lewandowski scoring with just over 5 minutes to go.

Better game management would have recognised that a draw was not a bad result. Would have left Arsenal not pushing forward as aggressively, and resulted in both sides leaving north London with a point.

In the end Arsenal did manage to qualify from a tough group including Napoli and Marseille.

The first leg against Rennes was similar.

Arsenal players (and management) should have recognised that 2-1 with the away goal was not a bad result. Especially down to 10-men. To be hit on the break and end up losing 3-1 was simply down to poor in-game management.

So now instead of needing just the single goal tonight to be leading the game, we need 2. It will a tough task.

Saying that, Arsenal were all over Rennes prior to Sokratis’ sending off. They could not cope with us.

With it being a 2 goal deficit, Arsenal know that they need to attack, attack, attack. And with that away goal in the back, Arsenal now it does not really matter if we concede one.

Rennes will set up to frustrate Arsenal. To protect what they have. It is a game to play Mesut Ozil, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Alex Iwobi behind Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, with Grant Xhaka holding.

It does not matter if we concede one, we still need to score 3.

Go out and be aggressive. Start the men who can unpick the lock and have Xhaka dictating the play from deep.

The majority of the play tonight will be in Rennes half.

It really is a simple game plan.

Leave the central defenders (Laurent Koscielny and Shkodran Mustafi) on the half way line. Xhaka just infront of them, and pile everyone else forward.

Bernd Leno has to be on his toes.

As we saw against Manchester United at the weekend, he is good at coming out of his goal. He will need to remain close to the edge of the box to cut out the long balls over the top.

Am I confident about tonight? No. Do I still expect us to go through? Yes.

We need to keep the dual paths to qualifying for the Champions League open.

Keenos

Arsenal look to put Europa League tie to bed in 1st leg against Rennes

There are some very good teams in the Europa League last 16.

Alongside Arsenal, there is also Chelsea, Inter Milan, Napoli, Valencia and Sevilla. It is Europe’s 2nd tier competition and you arguably have the creme dela crème of those sides not in the Champions League.

It would not be too surprising to see all 6 of those teams in the Champions League next season.

That is why Arsenal absolutely caught a break in the next round by drawing Rennes. Currently sitting 10th in Ligue 1, Rennes have a pedestrian 6-4-3 record at home this season.

In the Europa League this season, they could only manage a draw at home to Kiev in the Group State, and drew at home to Real Betis in the Round of 32.

Presently, Arsenal are  1/4 favorite’s to advance, and writers at sites like Sports Betting Dime see the Gunners as having a great chance to earn at least an away draw before finishing the job in London.

That being said, Arsenal need to ensure they take the tie seriously. The defeat away to BATE Borisov would have been a wake up call for the club.

The 1-0 loss in the 1st leg in Belarus was a shock to everyone and should be used as a reminder that no matter the gulf between clubs; any result can happen on any given day.

I do not think the environment in Minsk helped Arsenal, and this should be taken as minor extenuating circumstances.

The sub zero temperatures, the frozen, badly prepared pitch. It was a bit like an old school FA Cup 3rd round game when you would go to some dark corner of England, face a small team on a water logged, muddy, cut up pitch. The opponents would score from a set piece and the better team would labour on.

Against Rennes it should be a different story.

A city in the east of Brittany, north west France, it is little over an hour flying time from London. A case could probably be made that Arsenal do not travel up the day before. Instead meet at London Colney for breakfast on Thursday, a quick coach to Luton and a chartered flight into Rennes. They will be there before lunch; with 5 hours to prepare for the game.

Arsenal will not face the similar cold, frozen, bumpy pitch that they did in Borisov.

A positive result today will take Arsenal to 5 games unbeaten before the big game on Sunday against Manchester United.

Anyone heading out there – I imagine you are already in France – enjoy the game.

Keenos

Arsenal launch dual attack on Champions League

Arsenal are in the running for to finish Top 4.

A week ago Gary Linekar said that Arsenal “do not have the squad to compete for the top 4” ignoring the fact that we were certainly in a 3 horse race to finish in a Champions League spot. As it stands we are 5th, 1 point behind Manchester United in 4th.

The Premier League has 6 competitive teams fighting for 4 places. 6 in to 4 does not go. In the 9 seasons since the turn of the decade, none of the so-called “big 6” have finished top 4 in every season:

The Premier League is the hardest league in the world to finish top 4. No team, not even big spending Manchester City, are guaranteed it – where as in Spain, Italy and Germany you can pretty much guarantee that Barcelona, Juventus, Real Madrid & Bayern Munich will always make it.

This makes it a little bit harder to budget as a Premier League team.

Where as those sides in Spain, Italy and Germany know they will make the Champions League, so can offer 5-year deals knowing that they will have the income to cover it; Premier League sides have to be a bit more careful.

Not being in the Champions League cost Arsenal around £40million in 2017/18. With it not being an easy path to get back in, Arsenal need to ensure that they are budgeting not to qualify for the Champions League.

Any side that runs their budget and wage bill to qualify for the Champions League would be in financial danger if they failed to qualify. The £40million loss would force them to sell players to balance the books.

Alternatively, like Arsenal, you could keep a good cash balance so that you can supplement income from your savings if you do fail to qualify for a couple of years. In real life terms it is like keeping 6 months worth of mortgage payments in a savings account so that you do not risk losing your home if you lose your job.

Despite when Linekar said, Arsenal are competing for the top 4, but finishing there is not a guarantee.

It is this competition for top 4 that led me to blog about Points v Places.

Perhaps an easier route into the Champions League is winning the Europa League.

Tonight Arsenal play BATE Borisov – the Belorussian champions.

The two sides faced each other in the group stages of the Europa League last season. Arsenal scored 10 goals across both games. BATE finishing bottom of the group with just 1 win.

BATE have performed better in this years Europa League with 3 wins from 6 games – and losing just 3-1 and 1-0 against Chelsea.

Arsenal should comfortably get through to the Round of 16; and further progression should not be a problem.

The big names in the Europa League are; Napoli (2nd in Seria A), Inter Milan (3rd) and Lazio (7th). Sevilla (4th in La Liga), Real Betis (7th), Valencia (8th) and Villarrea (19th). You also have Bayern Leverkuson and Chelsea who are both 6th in their respective leagues.

The only sides that would really concern me are Napoli, Chelsea and Sevilla.

Winning the Europa League is a realistic target.

With Arsenal being out of both domestic competitions, we easily have the resources to rotate and keep players fresh for both competitions.

Despite what some have said, Arsenal have two good routes into the Champions League.

Keenos