Tag Archives: Football

Arsenal all ready for Rodrygo

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Any deal for Rodrygo was always only going to pick up pace once Real Madrid’s Club World Cup campaign was over.

Last night, the former-great team were knocked out at the semi-final stage of the post-season friendly competition, meaning the door is now open for Arsenal to begin serious talks.

Rodrygo’s stats in the Club World Cup highlights where the Brazilian is in new manager Xabi Alonso’s plans:

Starts: 1
Appearances: 3
Left on the bench: 3
Minutes played: 92 (17% of available minutes)

It has been made very clear to Rodrygo that he is not going to be a regular starter for Alonso, so it is no surprise that his representatives are rumoured to have a meeting with the club next week to discuss their clients future.

Rodrygo’s position at Real Madrid reminds me of Alexis Sanchez back in 2014.

Clearly talented players, both men were consistently played out of position to make way for more high-profile, better players. For Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Jr, read Lionel Messi and Neymar Jr.

In 2014, Barcelona signed Luis Suarez which left Sanchez as their 4th choice forward. He decided to push for a move to Arsenal where he could flourish in his favoured position and become a global superstar. For a time Sanchez was up there with the best players in the world.

Already competing with Vinicius Jr, Mbappe and Jude Bellingham (when he plays as a false 9), Rodrygo now has the highly talented trio of Endrick, Franco Mastantuono and Gonzalo Garcia to contend with.

At the Club World Cup, Rodrygo has been victim of Xabi Alonson continuing to shuffle the pack.

In the Spaniards 6 games in charge, he has played:

433 with Rodrygo right wing
433 with Federico Valverde
352 with Trent Alexander Arnold at right wing back and Vinicius Jr and Gonzalo up top (twice)
4312 with Bellingham playing behind Vinicius Jr and Gonzalo
4312 with Gonzalo playing behind Vinicius Jr and Mbappe

Rodrygo will likely disappear for a few weeks on holiday, resting and recuperating from the extended season. Whilst he is away, his representatives will be establishing if he has a future at Real Madrid, and if not what other options are there.

Coming to Arsenal, to be first choice left winger, will be high on his list of options. As will joining Bayern Munich following Jamal Musiala season long injury and Leroy Sane departing.

Following next weeks talks, Rodrygo will have a couple of weeks to ponder over his future before returning to Europe to make a final decision.

If it is Arsenal, I would expect the deal to happen in early August, at the earliest.

Rodrygo would unlikely join us in the US pre-season tour due to the late finish to the season, and negotiations with Real Madrid are unlikely to be concluded quickly.

I would expect his arrival to be close to, or after, the season has started. We would then have 2-3 weeks to get him match fit and ready for after the first international break 3 games in.

In the meantime, talk for Noni Madueke is increasing pace.

Madueke is splitting fans for a multitude of reasons: His price tag, and coming from Chelsea.

I feel those calling him a “Chelsea reject” are some way off the mark. Last season he started 80% of Premier League games for the team that finished 4th, and it highlights that we are recruiting real quality for out back up players.

Kepa was first choice keeper at Bournemouth – finished 9th.
Christian Norgaard was captain of Brentford – finished 10th.
Noni Madueke was first choice right winger at Chelsea – finished 4th.

Madueke would be coming in to be backup to Saka, and a left footed option on the left wing to provide further cover (for potentially Rodrygo). He is Premier League ready and offers the raw pace and unpredictability that the team is missing.

Still only 23, I do think it is incredible that fans are writing him off just because who he plays for.

I do get fans questioning his price tag, but what does it matter if it does not stop us doing the other business we want? And you also need to take into account his much lower wages.

Yes, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia cost PSG just £59m, and he is one of the best left wingers in the world. But they are also paying him of £300k a week putting his total cost at £137.

My bet is we get Madueke for around £45m + £5m add ons. With his wages taken into account, Madueke will likely cost us around £65-70m over 5 years. So whilst he might only be costing £9-15m less than Kvaratskhelia in transfer fee, the full cost will be over £60m less. And consider:

Bryan Mbeumo – £65m
Mathues Cunha – £62m
Anthony Elanga – £55m
Mohammed Kudus – £55m

For me, Madueke is in the same bracket as these sort of fellas. And they have set the transfer fee for talented wingers who are perhaps not good enough to be starting week in week out for a top team.

Mbeumo and Cunha are ahead of him, but they are both 3-years old. And it is why Madueke will cost £15m+ less.

Madueke is on par with Elanga and Kudus taking into account their raw talent, attributes and age profile. None of them would start for Arsenal, Manchester City or Liverpool. All 3 would be back up players.

My view is if we get Madueke for less than the £50m doing the rounds (ideally closer to £40m with add ons), and his recruitment does not impact our chase for Rodrygo, Eberechi Eze and Viktor Gyorekes, then it is a very good move.

We moan for 3 years that Saka needs to play every game and we do not have a quality back up for him. We then spend the money to sign the man who is his back up for England and who played 80% of PL minutes for the team finishing 4th and we still moan!

Have a good Wednesday.

Keenos

Arsenal getting it right in the transfer window

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“Another defensive midfielder”
“Another goalkeeper”
“Another defensive midfielder”
“Another centre back”
“Arteta has a fetish”

It is baffling that Arsenal are criticised for not signing players, then when deals are done (and just awaiting to be announced), are then criticised for saying players.

Whilst we all know we need a striker and a winger, we also needed a new defensive midfielder, which became two when Thomas Partey decided not to sign a new deal. Right sided central defensive cover for William Saliba was also essential, as was back up for David Raya.

Whilst Kepa and Christian Norgaard might not be the most exciting names, both are experienced Premier League campaigners who are ready to go from day one. The pair played regularly for mid-table Premier League sides last year, with Norgaard captaining Brentford.

I have always said a “squad player” at a title-chasing team needs to be good enough to start regularly for a mid-table team, and Kepa and Norgaard are that. And the fact that we are getting them for just £15 million combined is shrewed business.

We could have signed more exciting players as backup dancers. Spent £20-30 million on each of them. But they would unlikely have been better than Kepa and Norgaard. And every penny over the £15m we have spent on the pair would have been a penny less than we would have to spend elsewhere.

And ultimately, the club need to sign the players they think will improve us, whilst understanding the bigger picture and impact each deal will have on other deals. They do not sign players to appease cry-arsing fans.

It has to be remembered that, with Norgaard, he is replacing Jorginho in the squad, and not Thomas Partey.

The Ghanian is our first choice defensive midfielder, and he is being replaced by Martin Zubimendi.

Taking into account Partey’s fitness problems over the 5-years at the club and his huge wage, it is hard not to see Zubimendi as an upgrade.

Zubimendi is Spain’s second best defensive midfielder behind Rodri, and was being chased by Liverpool, Real Madrid and Barcelona. He chose Arsenal because he believed in Arteta and adds an aspect of control in the centre of midfield. A fabulous signing.

And then last night it broke that Arsenal were close to securing a deal for Valencia centreback Cristhian Mosquera.

I will be honest, I do not know much about Mosquera beyond that he was first choice for Valencia last season, is 21 today, has been playing at the Euro U21 tournament and will cost less than £20m.

Reports are that he is quick and strong, and therefore should be natural cover for William Saliba.

Last season, Saliba’s cover was a mixture of Ben White, Jurrien Timber and Takehiro Tomiyasu. None of whom are a specialist centreback. Bringing in Mosquera would mean we have specialist cover in that area.

An eye also needs to be kept on Saliba’s contract – his current deal expires in 2-years and there has been little talk of a new one. Taking into account how Real Madrid have operated in the transfer market recently, I would not be surprised if they are already in his ear about a move in 2027.

If Mosquera is rated highly, getting him in now will give him 2-years to grow and settle before potentially replacing Saliba. Of course, I do not want the Frenchman to leave but this deal does feel like it could be future proofing our defence if he decides to depart.

So there we have it. 3 squad players signed (or on the brink of signing) for a combined £35m, and a first choice defensive midfielder for £55m. £90m spent, with all 4 likely to be announced next week (it was always said that we would start announcing deals from 1 July).

And if you are still unsure why we signed those players:

The graphic above really highlights the impact of the signings have had on the midfield down. We now have proper quality squad depth from goalkeeper, through the defence and into the midfield. 2 players for every position.

If you do not think the players we signed we essential, cross them out of the graphic above and see what you are left with….

And finally, yes we need a new striker, and a new winger. But this is not FIFA or Football Manager. You can not sign players in a “certain order” just for good PR.

A deal for someone like Rodrygo will not be done until after the Club World Cup. And it might take a few weeks after as he will want to go straight on holiday and turn off his brain. I would not be surprised if we do not see his situation resolved until August.

In the meantime, we are looking at alternatives, and Eberechi Eze is a name that has broken recently.

With his release clause, Eze would be a quick deal to do. But signing him would mean no Rodrygo.

Rodrygo needs to be our number one target, and we just need to be saying to Eze that if the deal for the Brazilian is not done by the first week of August, we will pivot to him. Now whilst some might say “why would Eze join if he knew he was second choice” – get in the real world. Most players realise when joining a new club that they were not first choice.

And in August, if Rodrygo joins, Eze would still have plenty of options on the table elsewhere.

As for the striker, the situation is unchanged with Viktor Gyorekes and Benjamin Sesko. There is still brinksmanship between Arsenal, sporting and RB Leipzeg.

I beleive Sesko is our first choice, but the sticking point is the fee. RB Leipzeg apparantly need to make some sizeable sales before 1 July, so Arsenal will be hoping to use this to drive the price down. And if the deal is not done by then, I think we will quickly pivot to Gyorekes.

All in all, Arsenal are getting it right this transfer window.

We have recruited squad players without breaking the bank. Players that raise our floor. And we are still continuing to work on a couple big name signings that will raise the ceiling. But these bigger deals take time.

Keenos

Transfer windows within transfer windows

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With the Club World Cup, this was always going to be a bit of a strange transfer window.

An “Exceptional registration period” opened on 1 June and closed yesterday. The 10 day registration period was to “allow clubs playing in the tournament to sign new players before it started”. And as such, for fairness, all clubs across the world were also allowed to sign players.

Rather than just say “we will leave the window open for the duration of the summer”, leagues have closed the registration period for 6 days and it reopens again on 16 June.

This is because Premier League regulations state that the summer window must open “at midnight on the date 12 weeks prior to the date on which it is to conclude.” That is Monday 16 June, when the actual transfer window will open, closing 12 weeks later, on Monday 1 September.

That means there was a mini deadline of last night for clubs in the Club World Cup to sign players. For clubs not in the competition, they did not really care.

The last 10-days has seen Manchester City go aggressive in the market. The talk was they only wanted to complete deals that could be done before the Club World Cup started.

City have spent over £100m on Rayan Aït-Nouri, Marcus Bettinelli, Rayan Cherki and Tijjani Reijnders. Whilst some will commend them for getting deals done early, it means they might miss out on other players that could come available later in the window. By limiting yourself only to players who were available for a 10-day period is very restrictive.

Chelsea meanwhile spoke about the “Club World Cup tax”. This was having to pay a premium to get a deal done quickly.

We all know transfer negotiating takes time. Most deals do not happen quickly. By limiting yourself to signing a player before the 10 June deadline, you could end up paying a premium as you are giving yourself less time to negotiate.

If you are not bound by the deadline, you have more time to have talks, to play games, and to seek alternatives.

We then have the unseen deadline of PSR.

The longer we operate under PSR, and the UEFA FFP version, the more we learn. And what the financial regulations do is create an unseen deadline on 30 June.

The reporting window for PSR is 1 July to 30 June. That means a player sold on 1 June 2025 goes into the 2025/26 reporting year, whilst a player sold on 30 June 2025 is included in the 2024/25 reporting year.

Teams struggling to meet the PSR requirements will look to offload players before 30 June so that they can make ends meet. This means that for buying clubs, with no PSR concerns, there might be some home grown bargains to be had before his date.

Likewise, clubs who have no PSR concerns for 2024/25 might be reluctant to sell players before 1 July as they do not really “need the income”. Meanwhile, a £50m pure profit for home grown player such as Martin Zubimendi can give their summer transfer window a huge bump if they hold off until 1 July. Selling before this date can be seen as a bit of a waste.

This creates a bit of a backlog where teams who do not need to sell will be trying to slow down deals. Hold them back until July so that the incoming fee can be reported in the next year. This is certainly something most of us have not thought of before.

And in terms of the buying club, they would not be too concerned about their deal being delayed until 1 July.

Beyond the PR and fans crying on social media about “we have not signed anyone yet”, there is very little disadvantage for a club to do rush through a deal between 16 June and 30 June.

For a start, it would mean that none of the transfer fee will hit the 2024/25 accounts – both real accounts and those prepared for PSR. Secondly, a club will save on wages.

Yes, that might only be £500k if it is a top player, but every little counts!

You might also be able to agree a little discount in the transfer fee if you agree to delay it for 2-3 weeks and not pursue any other targets. The opposite of if a buying club wants to rush a deal through.

Finally, teams will not be returning to full training until July. So by agreeing to delay the transfer until July, you are not disadvantaging yourself.

There is also talk over other deadlines clubs are looking at, such as official accounting reporting in their individual countries and the tax they would have to pay.

The talk was Real Sociedad were looking to delay the transfer as if they sold Zubimendi in June, they would be less likely to spend the profits and would be hit with a larger tax bill. Whereas once you have spent the profits (which would happen in July), you then offset the income of the sold player against the expenditure of players coming in, thus reducing your tax bill.

It will now be interesting to see whether Martin Zubimendi is announced on 16 June, as soon as the new window opens. If it does happen, it will show that the delay was only due to Spain playing in the Nations League final.

I would not be surprised if it is announced that the deal is done across social media accounts during that week, but we do not see an official announcement from Arsenal until 1 July.

Always learning, trying to understand why deals that seem done are not going through quickly…

Have a good Wednesday.

Keenos