Tag Archives: Lucas Torreira

From Auoar to Ozil, Partey to Chambers – what business will Arsenal get done before the deadlines?

It’s October the 1st already.

The garden centres have put the BBQs away and the Christmas decorations are up in store. Yesterday I planted my winter hanging baskets.

Winter is coming, but more important is transfer deadline day is also coming, at least for international transfers.

The transfer window for international slams shut at 11pm on Monday October 5th. However domestic deals can still be made up until 5pm on the 16th of October.

It has been a well written story that Arsenal have too many players.

As it stands, we have 33 first team squad players listed on the website. More importantly than that is we currently have 19 non-home grown players.

We can only register 17 of those.

So players need to be sold, but players also need to be signed.

We are still a Thomas Partey and / or an Houssem Aouar from having a really good team.

Arsenal need to sell to buy. Not just to raise funds but also to free up the squad space – leaving players unregistered is not an option due to contractual issues that could arise.

So what do we expect to happen in the next few days (internationally) and weeks (domestically)?

Sead Kolasinac looks like he is out the door, off to Bayer Leverkusen. By the time this is published he might be gone.

He was rated as one of the best left backs in Germany, having been named in the Bundesliga team of the year in the season before joining Arsenal.

Following Kolasinac out of the door will be Lucas Torreira.

His move to Atletico Madrid will be rubber stamped.

Atlético want a loan with an obligation to buy, whilst Arsenal want a straight sale.

What might happen is a loan with an obligation to buy next season will be agreed, but at slightly higher than what Arsenal want for a transfer this summer.

Arsenal then might use a factoring company to get instant access to next summers transfer fee.

The departure of both will bring Arsenal’s squad size down to 31, and non-home grown contingent to 17. Bang on where we’d need to be.

Whilst you might think “Arsenal still need to sell to buy” there is a school of thought that the club have already written off the futures of Sokratis and Mesut Ozil.

Come deadline day, Arsenal will be happy to sell Sokratis for free, and accept a loan deal for Mesut Ozil where they continue to pay the majority of his wages for the rest of the season.

Both of these deals will probably happen quickly on deadline day as clubs look to take advantage of Arsenal having too many players.

Napoli have already tried to sign Sokratis for nothing. Arsenal rejected the deal but come Monday they will have no choice but to sign off on it.

With Ozil, the club would prefer to ship him out to a side that pays a big chunk of his wages. But the lore he becomes unwanted by Mikel Arteta, and the more Arsenal need rid to bring the squad numbers in line, the less a loaning club would be expected to contribute.

Do not be surprised to see him go to Turkey (or even join Kolasinac at Leverkusen), with Arsenal still paying £250-300k of his weekly wage.

There are 38 weeks left on Ozil’s contract. Arsenal’s fall liability would be around £13.3m. If we can get that done to just £10m, we’d have done well.

Sokratis leaving would also save the club £3.5m in wages, whilst Kolasinac & Torreira leaving frees up a further £7.5m. £11m in total.

Following Kolasinac & Torreira leaving, expect the club to move quickly for Auoar.

With Arsenal mentally writing Sokratis and Ozil off, we do not need to sell them before signing Auoar. The Frenchman can be signed with the two unwanted lads dumped on deadline day.

Deadline day is when we will move for Thomas Partey.

Kolasinac, Torreira, Sokratis & Ozil sold, with Aouar in would leave Arsenal at 16 non home-grown players.

If Arsenal pay the release clause for Partey, they do not need to negotiate with Atlético Madrid. It is just a case of taking the money to the Spanish FA HQ which in turn triggers that release clause. It will be a deal done quickly.

Calum Chambers and Shkodran Mustafi’s injuries have proved to be a hit of a headache for Arsenal this summer.

With the likes of West Ham, Fulham, Crystal Palace & Newcastle desperate for a centre back, both would have had plenty of interest if they were fit. But no one will take a risk with their injuries

Neither are expected to be fully match fit until the end of October. That is just 8 weeks before the winter window opens.

I would be very surprised if either leaves before January, but we might see a club like Fulham take the risk on Chambers and sign him prior to the October 16th domestic deadline. Expect another loan deal with an obligation to buy next summer for him.

As for Mustafi, expect a “Cedric deal” to be done with him in January.

This year Arsenal signed Cedric on loan, with an agreement for him to join permanently from Southampton in the summer when his contract expired.

Do not be surprised if Lazio or someone else takes Mustafi on loan for the 2nd half of the season, and he later joins that club when his Arsenal contract expires in the summer.

Arsenal would benefit from his wages being paid by someone else for the 2nd half of the season.

Matteo Guendouzi could leave if a big enough hid comes in for him. If not he will stay.

If Arsenal do secure Partey and Aouar, expect Emile Smith Rowe and Joe Willock to be loaned out to Premier League clubs – although these deals will happen closer to the 16th October.

So in summary, we do we predict:

Kolasinac SOLD

Torreira LOAN with obligation to buy

Auoar to be SIGNED

Sokratis to be SOLD for free on transfer deadline day

Ozil to be loaned out on transfer deadline day, Arsenal paying the majority of his wage

Partey to be SIGNED on deadline day

Chambers to leave on LOAN with an obligation to buy prior to October 16th

Mustafi towable on LOAN in January. He will join that club on a free transfer next summer

Willock and Smith Rowe to go out on LOAN closer to October 16th

We will keep track of our predictions and let you know how we get on.

Keenos

How do football clubs use factoring to gain instant access to transfer fees?

Invoice financing, or factoring as it is often referred to, is commonly used by businesses to improve their cash flow. With invoice financing, rather than waiting for an invoice to be settled, a proportion of cash tied up in the invoice can be released by a factoring company as soon as the invoice is issued.

Say a company sells cars on finance. They sell you a BMW 3 Series. It is a £27,000 motor, but you pay a deposit of £5,000 and drive it away same day. You then agree to 48 monthly payments of £269 and a final an optional final payment of £12,088.

The dealership will end up earning receiving £30,000 for you, the buyer. But at this moment in time they only have £5,000 in their pocket. No where near enough for them to replace the car you have just bought from them, which would enable them to make the next sale.

So what the dealership will do is contact a factoring company. They will explain that they have £12,912 in monthly payments set to come from a buyer.

The factoring company will buy the debt off the dealership, minus a small percentage – say 10%.

So the dealership receives £22,500 (£25,000 minus the 10%) from the factoring company, as well as the £5,000 deposit from yourself – £27,500 in total.

As you make your £269 payments to the dealership, they in turn make the same payments to the factoring company. At the end of the finance deal, a final payment is made, or the car is returned to the dealership who then sell it on.

You get a car that you can afford upfront, by agreeing to pay on finance.
The dealership receives £27,500 (a little over the original asking price).
A factoring company makes £2,500.

Whilst the dealership might have “lost out” on £2,500 additional profit, using the factoring company meant that they got the on the road price of the car upfront, rather than waiting for 48 months.

This enables them to buy more cars. And in turn to sell more cars.

Without the factoring company, the dealership would not have the cash to purchase new cars, and continue running their business.

Say Arsenal are demanding £20m upfront for Lucas Torreira. Torino want to pay Arsenal £10m now, £5m next summer and £5m the summer after.

Arsenal can not complete a deal for Thomas Partey with £10m. They need the full £20m. So they enter into negotiations with Torino.

Instead of the deal being for £20m upfront, the two clubs agree that Torino pay £10m upfront, £6m in a year, and another £6m in 2 years. Torino paying an extra £2m to spread the fee over 3 summers.

“But Arsenal are still only receiving £10m this summer” you cry.

No. What Arsenal then do is contact a factoring company.

They inform the factoring company that they are owed £6m next on 31st July 2021 and another £6m on 31st July 2022.

The factoring company then buy the £12m debt for £10m.

Arsenal receive their £20m this summer (£10m from Torino, £10m from the factoring company) and then next summer, Torino pay Arsenal £6m, Arsenal in turn pay £6m to the factoring company.

And the process is repeated in 2022.

So Torino pay an extra £22m total to spread the transfer fee over 3 summer windows
Arsenal still receive 100% of what they wanted, allowing them to go and purchase Thomas Partey.
And the factoring company make a cool £2m.

Everyone is happy!

Ultimately, this means that if Arsenal sell players this summer, with fees paid in instalments, it is unlikely they will have to wait until next summer, or the summer after to access the agreement payments.

They will use a factoring company, which frees the money up straight away, allowing Arsenal to reinvest straight away.

Note: Often the factoring company will also collect the debt direct from the debtor. So Torino would pay the factoring company direct, rather than pay Arsenal who then pay the factoring company

Keenos

Arsenal set for busy week of sales

This could be the week we start to see Arsenal make big moves in the transfer market.

So far, the business Arsenal have done has been quietly efficient.

Cedric Soares and Pablo Mari have both had their loan deals made permanent, whilst Willian was also recruited on a free – 3 experienced campaigners.

The club also re-loaned Dani Ceballos and signed Gabriel Magalhaes.

On first impressions, Willian has added some busyness and creativity in the final 3rd, whilst Gabriel put in a commanding performance at centre back.

But Arsenal need to sell.

We still have 18 non-home grown players in the first team squad – and 32 players in it.

This means Arsenal need to sell before they buy, both to bring down the non-home grown quota and to reduce the squad size generally.

Emiliano Martinez will be the first out of the door. His transfer to Aston Villa is all but done (and will probably be completed by the time we hit publish!).

Martinez does not solve the squad problems however, before:

  • He will need to be replaced and;
  • He is home grown

Arsenal have been linked with both David Raya of Brentford and Runar Alex Runarsson from Dijon. Interestingly both keepers have previously worked with Inaki Cana; Arsenal’s goalkeeping coach.

Raya would be the preference as he is home grown having joined Blackburn at 17. Having a non-home grown 2nd choice goalkeeper feels like a waste of a slot, especially as we already have one too many.

This week should also be the week when Lucas Torreira and Sokratis make their moves to Italy.

The 3 players (Torreira, Martinez & Sokratis) should raise close to £50million between them. By the time Arsenal use some of the money to buy a new keeper, it should leave the club with at least £40million cash surplus to make moves.

Sokratis and Torreira leaving will also give Arsenal 1 non-home grown slot – although this could get taken up by Runarsson if he joins.

If we do see a home grown keeper join, expect Arsenal to quickly reinvest those funds into a new midfielder – my gut says Houssem Aouar rather than Thomas Partey.

Further signings will then depend on further departures.

Talk about Edouard from Celtic intensified over the weekend, but you can only see him coming in if Alex Lacazette is sold.

Likewise Thomas Partey.

With Matteo Guendouzi back in first team training, there is a school of thought that he will return to Mikel Arteta’s plans.

He has a friendship with Aouar which could be good for both players, and he would play a similar role to Partey on the right side of a midfield 3 – given the role to drive the ball forward at his feet.

With Granit Xhaka, Dani Ceballos, Guendouzi, Aouar (potentially), Elneny and Joe Willock, it makes most sense that Partey would replace Matteo.

The 3 likely out this week will not be the only ones to leave Arsenal.

That will still leave Arsenal with a 30 man first team squad once we have signed a replacement goal keeper.

The club will still expect to move on Sead Kolasinac, Shkodran Mustafi and Calum Chambers. That would drop us down to a 27 man squad, and also get us within the non-home grown player limit. 27 is a number Arteta could cope with.

It is going to be a busy week…

Keenos